Tuesday Forecast

209 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)
A clipper low will track just south of New England tonight, basically the right track for a southern New England snowfall. This will be a light to moderate snowfall. The elongated nature of this system will keep the snow going into the early hours of Wednesday before it all lifts to the north and out of here. But an additional disturbance may fire off some snow showers/squalls Wednesday afternoon, with one final one bringing yet another chance of a few more on Thursday. Fair and cold weather will dominate Friday and Saturday.
TODAY: Clouding up. Snow developing southwest to northeast this afternoon. Highs 27-34. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow of varying intensity with general accumulation of 2-5 inches regionwide except a few amounts under 2 inches near the South Coast and isolated amounts of over 5 inches possible northern CT, northern RI, south central MA, and east coastal MA to southeastern NH. Lows 19-27. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy early with snow lingering in northeastern MA and southern NH, then a sun/cloud mix with scattered snow showers and snow squalls in the afternoon. Any squalls can briefly reduce visibility and quickly coat roads with snow. Highs 32-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH early, then W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Highs 30-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-23. Highs 28-35.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 12-20. Highs 28-35.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
Next low pressure area may track north of the region later February 5 into February 6 bringing mix/rain showers and milder air, and a follow up system around February 8 may do the same, but the forecast confidence for this period is lower than average, so will re-evaluate for the next update.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
Weather looks fairly quiet and seasonably chilly heading toward the middle of February. But again lower confidence here and will re-visit this tomorrow.

209 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  5. It will be nice to see some snow around here again, hopefully there are a few upside surprises. Not sure what to make of next week. The First system has pretty much become a non event with the energy remaining with the northern stream energy with no transfer to a coastal. The second storm still looks to be the more organized and stronger of the two, but in true 2016/2017 winter fashion is an inside runner, but not by much.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Today will be nice to see for a change, however, down the road a bit it looks
    DISGUSTING!!! Pattern change? Ya right. IF so, what it lasts about a week. Nice.

    Ok, enough about that, let’s see if today’s system can over produce. Highly unlikely, but
    let’s see. 😀

  9. Something for consideration, 2 Other mesoscale models used by the NWS:

    0Z WRF-ARW snowmap (10:1)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2017013100/wrf-arw_asnow_neus_30.png

    0Z WRF-NMM snowmap (10:1)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2017013100/wrf-nmm_asnow_neus_30.png

    These are the ones that cause some concern for higher totals in and around Boston.

    Some banding and convergence etc. AND these are 10:1 maps. The NWS indicates
    that the expect the snow ratio to be 15:1, so multiple these totals by 1.5. Thus the NWS
    wording of possible 6 inches near the coast. 😀

    Will this happen? Who knows. I guess we will find out.

      2. I just want to see what happens when the center gets over the water and interacts with that jet stream. There is some nice
        lift above, really nice. Sometimes these things can just
        explode. Models are not calling for that, but models don’t
        always get it right.

        I am NOT saying that is what will happen, just saying it is
        something to watch.

    2. Also with the snow starting in the afternoon, I feel like we could very well see snow falling but not accumulating till evening

      1. huh? It will start accumulating as soon as it starts falling.
        Temps are cold and they were very cold overnight. It was down to 18 at my house and I can imagine it was closer to 10 inland
        farther.

        The only thing that will limit accumulation is the intensity
        of the snow. It may be quite light at the onset.

  13. Pumped about the snow coming in. I know it’s only a few inches but it will be nice to actually see snow on the ground to give some semblance of winter.

    1. That is a nice way of looking at it and I agree.
      Still hoping for a bit of a surprise. We shall see.
      In this set up, it is entirely possible.

      One serious limiting factor is the speed with which this thing will
      be blowing through the area. It will rocket through here.

            1. It doesn’t matter as I’m sure I’m here till the morning . As long as its shuts off than cause I’ll be tired

  15. As of 10AM Obs, Bridgeport Connecticut is reporting overcast.

    Light SNOW, Nyc
    Moderate Snow, Binghampton
    Light Snow, Ithaca
    Light Snow, Syracuse
    White Plains, Cloudy

  16. Observing the radar, it looks like the snow gets pretty serious very quickly.
    Could be a very interesting evening.

  17. Then again, the 12Z GFS has backed off some more.

    Snow map (Kuchera Method)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017013112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036

    Wondering if the snow forecast shouldn’t be 1-3 inches or 2-4 inches at best.

    Then again, the GFS is a global model and this is pretty close in time. Perhaps it is
    not picking up everything well enough? I dunno.

    I just don’t like the model discrepancy.

    The HRRR is NOT bullish on totals either.

  19. Snowing lightly in Manchester CT. Started around 10:30 pretty much right on cue with the radar returns. That’s not to say the air isn’t dry and eating up some of the snow to start. Snow is still very light and not yet accumulating.

  20. On the forecasts I wrote at 2am, I went for a general 1-3 inches across the region with isolated higher amounts. I haven’t looked at the newest guidance yet (I just woke up).

    1. You and Ryan Hannrahan are in agreement. 😀

      Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan 3h3 hours ago
      More
      Forecast of 1″-3″ looks good for today. Getting slick quickly after the snow starts. #nbcct

  23. Looking at observations, there is varying intensity to the snow falling.
    I have seen observations in CT and NY reporting Moderate Snow with visibility
    down to 1/2 mile. Most are reporting light snow with Vis 1-2 miles.

  24. I continue to agree with 1-3″. Not so sure anymore about the localized 3-5″. There may be a few 4-5″ amounts, but there’s nothing to suggest a surprise and if anything an under-performer is looking more likely now. Highest totals will probably end up in CT and RI. There is the potential wildcard of a weak Norlun feature late tonight/early tomorrow that could lead to some enhancement especially on the North Shore.

    1. I here what you are saying, but I still want to see what happens when the
      center gets over the water. IF nothing much happens, you will be correct. However, if this thing develops more and quickly enough, the higher totals could be realized.

      We shall see.

      1. I would definitely watch for a brief uptick in intensity late tonight as the low pulls away and potentially drags a weak Norlun feature behind it. Would probably be a bigger deal on the North Shore but Boston may sneak into it at first.

  25. Meanwhile, can we talk about the ECMWF’s prospect of mid 60s with 70s lurking not too far south of SNE by mid next week? That’d be something. Looking now like a big time Lakes Cutter to pump in the warmth around 2/8. Lots of time for that to change too though, we see what’s happening to our 2/6 system, which as Go For Snow said is now mostly just a weak northern stream low that may not bring much of any precip at all. Predictability in the medium range has been much lower of late than over most of the winter.

    1. I learned a long time ago with winter storms – until the upper-level energy responsible for the storm gets into the West coast (i.e. where the wx balloons are launched), treat all model solutions as suspect. That usually means anything beyond Day 3 is to be taken with a HUGE grain of salt.

      As some of you may recall, during the snow blitz 2 years ago, most of those storms were not picked up by the models until we were 48-72 hours out. Even the huge post-Super Bowl blizzard was a complete miss on the models 3 days in advance.

      1. So true….just look how long it took the models to lock onto the clipper system for today. GFS has trended towards very warm for the two system next week. CMC is warm to start and then finishes with this. Euro has gone from OTS to Lakes to who knows.

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017013112&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=200

        Point is you are 100% correct and we probably won’t know for a few days.

  33. JPD given your comments earlier thought you might be interested in this..
    100 PM Update…

    Shortwave continues to dig across the region this afternoon
    resulting in the development of a surface low close to the
    Benchmark. Precipitation shield continues to expand across the
    region in WAA lift. Stout banding is setting up across the
    south coast in conjunction with mid and upper level frontogenesis
    and strong omega lift within the snow growth region. Steep lapse
    rates as well have been noticed in SPC mesoscale forecast page
    which increases forecaster confidence on the potential for
    snowfall rates 1-2 inches and hour. Anticipate this band to
    continue over the next few hours and move eastward per latest model
    guidance. This band should move offshore closer to 00-02z.

    In terms of high impact, believe this band will be the main show
    for today dropping vsbys and increasing snowfall amounts. Went
    ahead an updated the snowfall forecast to adjust the heavier
    amounts closer to the south coast.

    Looking westward, appears the remainder of the snow is more
    convective in nature as is moves into the region late this
    afternoon into the evening hours. A few locations may see a quick
    burst, but the higher priority is the ongoing band across the
    south coast.

    Still waiting for snowfall measurements, but looking at webcams
    appears that roads are already covered and the snow is quickly
    adding up in a line south of BDL-PVD-EWB.

  34. Thanks TK !

    Busy, busy, busy …..

    Sure did go from sun to thick clouds pretty quickly. Anticipating first snow soon.

    Its funny, we had 15 ” of snow on that one storm and if we get 3″ by midnight, we’ll have somehow managed 18″ of snow in Marshfield during a month that had very few days below freezing and had a temp anomaly of probably +6F to +7F.

  40. I have been out for a few hours. It’s been spitting snow in Boston since about
    1:15PM. Flakes to light snow to nothing to flakes to nothing to light snow.
    Currently some flakes with the SUN shining through the cloud deck. Don’t get
    much snow with the sun shinning through.

    1. Wind East at Hartford, SE at New Haven, East at Bridgeport.
      East Wind at NYC. SouthEast wind at Binghampton.

      Unless there is a redevelopment going on, this system is not over the water
      at this time.

  44. Still snowing moderately here in Manchester, CT. We have had a few bursts of heavy snow as well. About 1-1.5″ on the ground. Road conditions have deteriorated and there have been several reports of accidents.

      2. I think the Euro is way over-amped and too far west with that system but we’ll see. Plenty of time to get better as it certainly cant get any worse.

        Imagine if that system as depicted passed to our south and east? There’d be plenty of 2/8/13 blizzard analogs flying around!

      3. You’re right, it’s going to go across the Lakes just like every other system has this winter. Wait, what’s that? Every system has been forecast to do that for days in advance yet almost always has ended up south of New England? Oh, and the models have been hideous beyond Day 3 all winter? You’re right, let”s just keep treating them as gospel and believe everything they spit out a week in advance.

            1. Well it ran inside long enough to bring the warmth in here before it finally slid “just” South of us. The end result was the same as an inside runner. But you are correct. I did say it would be an inside runner.

              Let’s see what this 2/8 system does.

              I’d love it to be a coastal. Absolutely love it.

              The way things have been going, I don’t hold out much hope for that.

        1. Yes you did, but that doesn’t mean I have to like it.

          If we’re still going to get cutters, then just bring in
          Spring and end Winter now. Who needs it.

  46. OK, steady light snow here now. Vis down to 1.5 to 2 miles. Waiting for some real stuff, IF/WHEN it gets here. 😀 😀 😀

  47. Everything now solid white Sutton. Maybe 1/4 inch is stretching it. Also I am on a side road so have no idea if it is accumulating on main roads.

  49. This sucks. Visibility up again to about 3-5 miles. I can’t tell from here. I can get a good handle on it from about 1.5 miles in.

  50. Radar is deceiving right now. I’m under darker blues yet still just light snow. With the speed of this thing, I can’t see more than a couple inches at this rate.

  51. Gotten darker here. Fine, misty snow. Intensity starting to increase a bit. Visibility about 1.5 to 2 miles.

  52. A little bit heavier stuff on radar is “just” South of here and looks to be moving in.
    Let’s see how those echoes translate to real life snow?????

        1. Spitting snow in Woburn…nothing close to sticking. I am not a radar expert but unless I am missing something (and I probably am) how are we in the 2-5″ zone?

  55. Now we’re cooking. Visibility under 1 mile. I’d say about 3/4 mile, closing in on
    2/3 mile. I can see Mission Church from my office Window and it is exactly
    2/3 of a mile from my window. Church is getting a little blurry, but I can still see it
    fairly well.

  57. QPF 0.10-0.35 inch melted at about 15:1 with this event for most of the region, but a little closer to 10:1 South Coast especially Cape Cod.

      1. I had 2-5 which in fluff zone is not much of a spread. Allowed for a bit less where the ratio was less and an isolated jackpot zone of 5+ just in case we got a spot that had both ocean-enhancement and the elongated trough axis over them for a while.

        Logan: 2.9

        1. My reasoning for them being a little less than what may fall just south and just north has to do with placement of banding (south at first) and trough axis (north overnight). This is a bit of a high-risk forecast.

  58. Don’t forget, we’re not tracking a block of wood floating in a tub of water here.

    This is fluid, and there are conditions that will exist in the atmosphere to generate additional snow areas up until shortly before dawn tomorrow, and maybe even a little bit beyond that further north. I’d say about 1/2 of the accumulating snow occurs after midnight.

    1. Thank you for that clarification. Appreciate it.

      Yes, the atmosphere is certainly fluid.

      I took a course in college called Fluid Dynamics. Pretty interesting, but not
      that is was a meteorology course, because it wasn’t. I’m sure some of the
      principles apply.

  59. A little over 2″ on the ground now in Manchester CT. More has fallen south of here. Still snowing but it has lightened up. We are right within the forecasted range here. Good call by the school districts letting the kids out early. Roads deteriorated in a hurry.

  64. Everything is white here now. A healthy coating to perhaps 1/4 inch.
    Visibility between 2/3 and 3/4 mile, but clearly NOT quite 2/3 mile because I can
    still see Mission Church, but more blurry than before.

  65. I know Vicki alluded to this above…

    When you see a range of 2-5 inches, for example, that does not mean your location is necessarily due to receive 5 inches. Folks need to focus on the range, not the top number.

    1. Yup. I am well aware now, but I have to be honest….
      When I was in school and I heard Don Kent say 4-8 inches, I immediately
      went to “we’re getting 8 inches”! Every time!! Human nature I suppose. 😀

  66. UPS driver said side roads are slick. Main roads are fine. They have pretreated our side roads twice. I am sure the main roads far more. Sutton does an awesome job of treating snow

  67. Snow just won’t go that little extra to get really meaningful.

    Visibility maintaining in the range of 2/3 to 3/4 mile.

  68. Staying with 2-5. I figure most will come in 2-4, but I want that 5 there based on light ocean enhancement and trough. Most likely spot is northeastern MA or NH Seacoast for a 5 amount, based on what I see now.

      1. They will have it for a few more hours and it should taper off there around 8 or 9 for several hours then return overnight for 3 to 5 additional hours after midnight to before dawn. I think everything will be done there by 5 or 6 in the morning and with it being relatively milder tomorrow, roads should be fine.

  69. Am I nuts, or did not the NWS previously think that the warm front
    would be “just” South of the South coast? Hmmm, that appears a wee bit
    farther South than that. Of course, the WPC could be depicting the surface features
    incorrectly, but then again, they have been doing that for a long time now. 😀

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

    1. I’m not seeing any real falling apart there. I’m seeing it doing pretty much as expected so far.

  73. Just a coating, not even enough to cover the tops of the blades of grass. Barely snowing right now. Can we call this a bust by the NWS?

    1. They may be a bit high with their more widespread 4+ but as for accumulating snow we have about 12 hours to go before the threat is done.

    1. Yeah that stuff has to come through, but the thrust will be north of the Mass Pike the later into the night we go.

      1. Hey Tk . I’m out in the field still thinking 2.5 .Do you have a rough idea on when it shuts down here tomorrow morning . Thanks buddy .

        1. Final flakes should be done by about 6AM there. This should be fairly simple to keep up with, but there may be a nice batch of moderate snow sometime between midnight and 5AM.

          1. I have a feeling it’s probably a salter here in the city . To be a pest less at home in pembroke ??? Thank you .

  75. NWS on the next two threats–updates from 4:00 pm–Sunday doesn’t seem to match what people on here are saying about the track….

    Sunday into Monday…

    Lots of spread in the ensemble members, and differences persist in
    the deterministic solutions, too. General theme is for a low
    pressure to pass south of our region. Will likely need to wait a
    couple more days for the energy that will become this low pressure
    to become better sampled over western North America, before we get
    more clarity on the details. Ensemble probabilities still indicate a
    low risk for significant precipitation. Will just need to watch this
    closely later this week.

    Tuesday…

    Unlike the potential Sunday storm, this storm appears to be passing
    by to our north. So, not looking like a snow storm at this time.
    Same uncertainty limitations discussed above apply here, too.

    1. Too early to know both tracks. The models have been garbage at 3+ days for months. The Sunday/Monday threat is confusing the models. They don’t know whether to emphasize the northern energy or the southern energy.

      Forget the one beyond that. There is at least an even chance that this system, shown by most guidance to track north of the Great Lakes, ends up tracking over or south of New England.

      1. So you don’t agree with Eric and Barry Tweeting model output and talking about 60 degrees next week…

  76. Been barely snowing for an hour or two. As a self professed snow hater I would love it if it stopped now. Enough to look nice and but ot enough to clean up. Ways to go yet…will see what the morning brings. Hope schools stay open.

          1. DUDE you should come down to the DD’s at Four Corners sometime. I stop in there a couple to a few times a week.

              1. I guarantee you she probably talks to my friend regularly provided she’s there when she’s working. She’s a shift leader there.

  77. Counting on that midnight period to get these snow totals up. If we can sustain moderate snow, 3″ is easily attainable.

  78. This `storm’ kind of sums up the winter thus far. No umph, no nothing. I did enjoy yesterday and hope we get more days or perhaps weeks like that. Even without snow I’m fine so long as it’s refreshingly cold outside to remind me that this is the winter season. And as a byproduct the cooler air seems to clear out the pollutants.

    1. Ironically this system is behaving just about as it was forecast to.

      1-3 inches already fell in areas to the south with burst #1. Burst #2 is weaker and getting southern and central areas next couple hours. Burst #3 is central and northern areas overnight and very early morning and that takes care of their snow accumulation.

      1. And Boston is woefully stuck in the middle with practically nothing. I knew it would be tough to get the 4-6 inches the NWS was touting, but GEEZ I’d thought we’d get at least 2 or 3 inches.

        Maybe with some luck will pick that up overnight, but I bet not.

        1. Old salty 4-6 was never in the cards for Boston . Let’s see what happens around midnight . I’ll tweet you and let you know ok, lol.

          1. I’ll know by looking out the window. I live down the street from where you work. 😀

            NWS had 4-6 on their map they produced at
            2:09 PM. Man, did they ever BLOW IT!!!

  79. This event blows chunks, at least here in the city.
    I was putting the trash barrels away a while back and could clearly see the Moon
    AND Venus!! Pretty Pathetic.

    1/4 inch IF lucky.

    A few flakes drifting down and that’s about it.

  80. Boston may still pick up a quick inch or 2 overnight. Depends on how far south the trough snow fires up.

    I freaking HATE this term, but it’s a nowcasting event. Damn, I can’t believe I said that.

    1. Are you sure it’s not a NOcasting event? Sure looks that way here. 😀

      I’ll let you know tomorrow what, if anything we do get.

      When do you expect the “trough” snow? In the next couple of hours I would think.

  82. Totals ranged from 2.5″ to 3″ here east of Hartford. The forecasted amounts were right on the money here. Snow has now tapered off for the most part.

        1. Hahaha. I understand. Our snow blower remains in the garage. Neighbors use theirs and probably take pity on son and mostly son in law as they shovel. Little do they know we have as now blower

  84. Most reports south of Boston are between 1 & 3 inches. There are a few areas that had less. Again, so far, close to what was expected. The top amounts won’t be seen in most locations, but hey, that’s why there is a lower end to the range too.

  85. Surprise! The 0z GFS looks nothing like the previous runs. Now showing two storms middle of next week….a snow to rain event Tues night into Wed and an inland runner with mostly rain Thursday. A definite shift towards a colder solution, at least for the Tuesday-Wed system.

  87. The storm in Boston at least where I am never got it’s act together. It’s been a very long night.

  90. 2″ looks like the snow ended with silver dollar snowflakes and that’s the appearance on the top of the snow anyway.

  92. Yup it was pretty easy. 1-3 was definitely the better forecast. Not often I come in too high with snow. 😛

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