Friday Forecast

70 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
High pressure slides from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic today and Saturday bringing fair but cold weather to southern New England. Low pressure passing north of the region Sunday will drag a cold front through by Sunday night with a few snow/rain showers around. A shot of cold air follows this for Monday with dry weather. By Tuesday, the first part of a complex storm system will arrive with low pressure moving along the front to our south, cold air in place and overrunning warmer air above. This will result in a snow/ice event, the details of which will be known as it gets closer.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. PM rain/snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/ice likely mainly afternoon. Lows 20-27. Highs 28-35.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
The second part of a complex weather system is expected February 8 with ice to rain as milder air wins out. However, this is pretty far out to try to pin down any details. Fair, windy, colder weather expected February 9, then mainly fair and more tranquil thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
Unsettled weather is most likely early in the period otherwise mainly dry. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

70 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

    1. I don’t know …. With that said, I hope he’s not upset over whether there was 1 system or 2 systems on the GFS yesterday during the 2/7 to 2/8 timeframe.

      For what its worth, I would have also just looked at the surface and thought there was one system.

      The meteorology that was pointed out was very good and I feel like I learned something, but the tone of the feedback to JpDave, I thought, could have been better.

      3. That was my thought also and was hoping that isn’t the case. His input here is so important and his personality just makes it that much better.

  9. Good morning all and many thanks for the kind words.

    Was busy last night and tied up with things at work this morning.

    re: Tuesday

    Although the GFS has backed off on Snow amounts, the 0Z Euro upped them again.
    Nothing outrageous, but enough to make it interesting. ie about 8 inches Worcester
    Northward to Fitchburg down to about 2 inches or so in Boston with not much if any
    too far South of the City. And the amounts drop off quickly South of Worcester as
    well.

    So, it will be interesting to see how the 12Z runs handle it all.

  10. Thanks, TK:

    Re: Roof open or closed at NRG Stadium for Super Bowl LI…

    I get the feeling that more than football may play into the decision whether to open or close the roof at the stadium.

    In addition to the game, pyrotechnics, blimps, helicopters go into the decision to open or close the roof. The Super Bowl is as much about the show as the game.

    I am also reading that Lady Gaga wants to perform the halftime show FROM the roof of the stadium.

    I don’t gamble, but I’ll bet (no pun intended) that roof open or closed would affect point spreads, lines, etc.

    Open or closed roof aside, I am getting pumped for a fun Super Bowl Sunday!
    I hope everyone enjoys the weekend and the game!

    Go Pats!

    1. I agree. Despite what others have said, as long as it is not raining or not forecast to rain, I’m guessing the Roof is Open.

      We should have a contest. Roof open or closed?

    2. I’m getting really excited also. I have completely enjoyed watching Atlanta and think it should be a great match!

      1. The roof will almost certainly be closed. There will be showers all day long in Houston, so it will stay closed to keep the field dry. Since the showers won’t end until close to game time, it will remain closed.

        FYI – it was closed for every single Texans home game this season.

  11. Nice Discussion from the Taunton NWS regarding the Tuesday/Wednesday situation:

    Tuesday into Wednesday…

    Low confidence in details. Good overrunning situation developing Tue
    with high pres to the N/NE and approaching warm front and increasing
    moisture riding over cold dome in the low levels. This should lead
    to a period of accumulating snow which may develop by late Mon
    night. With primary low tracking to the west, a changeover to rain is
    likely but also a period of transitional ice in the interior as
    pronounced damming signature present. Potential for several inches
    of snow and some ice accretion north of the Pike with even minor
    snow accum near the coast. However, there is considerable
    uncertainty with timing of the warm front and changeover and whether
    a secondary low can develop to the south     which would slow the
    changeover in the interior, so low confidence in duration and
    amounts of snow/ice/rain. Extent of warming on Wed also uncertain as
    well as timing of the cold front and drying.

    I added the bold. 😀

  12. This is the 12Z GFS front end snow map (Kucher Method) for Tuesday.
    Please note Way up North, frozen precipitation is still occurring, but as far as front
    end snow, this is it for that event. I suppose it is possible for a bit more on the back end.
    Not sure about that.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017020312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=111

    FWIW, this is UP considerably from the 6Z run shown below

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017020306&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=123

    So, now we shall see what the Euro has to say when it is available sometime between
    1:30 and 2PM.

  13. As we’ve seen several times this winter, the midweek storm is one where model snow maps will be highly suspect due to mixed precipitation. In particular, the Tropical Tidbits maps, especially regarding the NAM once that gets into range, are useless. Any ECMWF maps should also be treated with extreme skepticism. Still a day or so too early for details.

    1. Yup, we sure saw that with the last mixed event.
      The Kuchera Method maps are a little better.

      Clearly, there will be a period of snow/ice. The question is how long of a period? brief or extended?

      I’d like to see the HIGH hang tough and I would also like to see
      some sort of coastal just South of SNE. Not that these would salvage
      a big snow event near the coast, but It “could” ensure more snow well inland
      and especially up in Ski country. Also itcould cause a rather extensive inland ice storm, which no one wants.

  14. FWIW, the CMC has snow in Boston from 12Z Tues through 0Z Wed, 7AM to 7PM or there about. Not that the CMC is to be trusted. 😀

    Not sure of the snow amounts.

    Regarding amounts:

    Even with the Kuchera Method, the snow amounts vary from site to site.
    They are Higher on Instant Weather maps than they are at College of DuPage.

    Somehow, each site implements the Kuchera Method differently. ALL snow maps should be taken with a grain of salt for sure.

    For most situations, I think the thing to do is take the liquid qpf and apply the appropriate snow ratio to it to get a reasonable sense of snow fall. Of course
    have to factor is when there is a change to sleet or ice.

    1. Here yes, but not up north. I think the mountains do well and that’s important with the Feb vacation coming up in two weeks.

  16. Snow haters rejoice!

    Euro weeklies for week 2 (Feb 13-20):
    https://s24.postimg.org/bp0ofqfo5/Capture.jpg

    Euro weeklies for weeks 3 and 4 (Feb 20-Mar 8):
    https://s29.postimg.org/xur2qbwyf/Capture1.jpg

    12z GFS Operational for days 11-15 (Feb 13-Feb 18):
    https://s27.postimg.org/m48a4wtab/Capture2.jpg

    CFS model for Feb 16-23:
    https://s27.postimg.org/951xhfpn7/CFS_model.jpg

    I realize the models have been inconsistent and crappy in the long range but there is a ton of support here for warmth across much of the continent as we head into mid-late Feb and potentially beyond. I am not feeling good at all about any sustained winter weather pattern the rest of this month and perhaps the season. Sure we could have a brief relaxation or two of the pattern to give us a few snowstorm chances but I’m just not feeling it.

    1. Winter has presented us with much in the way of benchmark blow-ups anyway this year so warmer/milder sooner is just fine with me. Would rather that than dry (OTS) and cold.

      2. We’ve had some good moisture this winter. I had a little over 5 inches in January. Should help with the green up. If there’s no snow OTG in late March, i’ll shoot the Lesco to it.

  17. Judah Cohen ‏@judah47 · 4h4 hours ago
    Classic downward propagation of weak #polarvortex to surface, first question is how low the #AO goes? But likely cold air heading to #Europe

    As Blackstone has mentioned, there is -AO and cold air around south of the Arctic, but it has been and continues to be over in Europe.

    1. Yup, exactly. But I’ve watched that AO now for weeks. Granted its the GEFS, BUT, ive see that progged to go -4SD at least 3 times already, only to stay positive or near neutral. This time, it seems to have some legs, but I’m guess most of it goes over the pole to Asia/Europe.
      There has been a little SSW, but I’m not sure how that pans out for NA. I said yesterday the weeklies look like a torch. But I take that with a little grain of salt just like I do when the weeklies show frigid. PNA and EPO are on the rise, but for how long.
      It’s 3.5 weeks till March. And 6 more weeks for a deep winter chance. After St Patty’s Day… meh. I’m not saying it wont snow, it surely will. Could even get a big one. BUT, deep winter from here with days and days of arctic air and snow pack? Not so optimistic for winter folk.

        1. LOL. Take it with a grain of salt. I’m just going by what I see.
          It could get colder than a well digger’s butt and stay that way until April with snow ass deep to a tall giant. 🙂

  19. Bobcats spotted even further east of Springfield, 2 bobcats on camera in Chelmsford, MA. Just saw on BZ

    1. We have friends in Bolton who said they’d seen at least one years ago. Wildlife officials said not possible. My girls were house sitting and saw one in the yard. I suspect they have been east or Springfield for a while but perhaps the numbers are increasing so people are beginning to see them.

        2. Most recent reports show they are increasing. It may be due to our encroaching that we see them more, however. NH particularly is seeing a rise but MA is as well.

          1. Coy dogs and coy wolves are Increasing also. I understand that they move to different areas as the area they are in populates. But coydogs started in this country near the Canadian border and are slowly moving south. In that area there is no human encroachment as it is quite unsettled. But they also need their own space. So I think a combination of their amazing ability to adapt and multiply, our placing regulations on hunting…thank heaven for regs…..also influenced by the human need to populate.

  21. Just give me one big storm one to two feet before winter is over and I’ll be happy.
    A lot of whimpy snow events in my area.

      1. Can’t believe next week it will be 4 years ago since my generations blizzard of 78. 30 inches of snow which was the most snow I ever seen in one snowstorm in my life, snow banks taller than me, and when driving around I saw people snow blowing there streets just to be able to get out.

        1. When was it we had 30 inches in Framingham. There have been enough storms that have similar accumulations that I forget. I do remember my son in law having to go our the window as doors were all blocked

            1. I have truly fond memories of 78. Mac and I were dating then although married in December of that year. By complete accident I was stranded at His apartment in Medford. Truly it was an accident.

  24. In terms of Bobcats, they have very large territories. males have about 60mile , females about 40. Increasing populations of Bobcats and the human encroachment of their territories, will mean we will see more of them but they will also move a bit. They are also just expanding into what was once all forest/farmland and their historical range. When their usual habitat runs out of room, they will expand the range. Its more complicated than this generalization but you get the idea.

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