Sunday Forecast

193 Comments

8:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
Low pressure passes north of the region today but has so little moisture to work with it just looks like clouds will be the dominant feature and rain/snow showers will never really materialize. Behind this system, colder air flows in for Monday and the next system approaches Monday night and Tuesday as a low pressure wave along a front to the south of New England, which will lift northward with time. That will bring snow/ice/rain into the region Tuesday with snow most likely in northern MA and southern NH to start, ice for a portion of inland locations and rain closer to the coast and areas to the south. This will lift out of the region later before a stronger low tracks well north of New England dragging mild air up from the south and causing numerous rain showers Wednesday ahead of a stronger cold front. This front moves through Thursday, which will be much colder. Will be watching to see if moisture gets out of southeastern areas before the cold air arrives early Thursday just in case there is a resultant change to snow there, but for now will lean toward the drier scenario.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 36-44. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 22-30. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny through early afternoon. Mostly cloudy late in the day. Highs 32-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow with a coating to a few inches possible mainly along and west of I-95 and north of the Mass Pike with the greatest chance of a few inches in higher elevations of north central MA to southwestern NH, changing sleet and freezing rain here during the day. Brief snow/sleet/rain elsewhere becoming mainly rain during the day. Highs 31-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely mainly morning. Lows 31-39 early. Highs 45-55, warmest southeastern areas.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy AM. Partly cloudy PM. Windy. Temperatures fall to 30s then 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
A dry and cold start, then milder with a mid period minor weather system bringing mix/rain, followed by fair and colder end to period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
Will watch this period of time for a little more activity in terms of storm threats.

193 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. I know TK doesn’t agree, and Barry tends to hug the Euro, but he did tweet “Perhaps a few inches of snow on Thursday”.

    1. So far I think that will be too far offshore…
      But I won’t count it out completely since it’s 4 days away.

  2. Thanks TK !

    Maybe it’s always been this way, but it feels like anything beyond 72 hrs on the models this winter is likely to be different, even very different once it ends up in the very short range.

    As an example, this mid week system has consistently been projected at 978-984 mb and all of a sudden today, it’s closer to 990mb. I take that because it’s projected to be weaker, the followup low, still looking like a miss, is projected to track slightly further north and west.

    1. SAK and I have mentioned this a few times this week. It’s very true. Models generally OK through 72, but pretty much crap beyond it. There have been very few exceptions.

      1. Also the bias that has been there with ECMWF since 2015 to over amplify nearly everything. The GFS which has been next level crap in recent weeks, also way over amped this system.

        I will say that I had reasonable confidence that this period would active, but the lack of snow in this period is diluting my confidence in my idea that most of our snow would come in a 2-3 week period in February. Failure I am.

        1. The pattern can turn on a dime. Don’t count out the 2nd half of February.

          If we know the ECMWF is over amplifying things just a few days away, how can we trust its weeklies?

          Wait for it…

          1. You will follow the ECMWF verbatim, repeat after me. ECMWF is never wrong, you are getting very sleepy, yes Master Euro…

  4. I was reading some widespread disappointment in the snowfall accumulations from this past week’s minor system. That system was forecast to be on average a .25″ QPF system and then was relying on 15:1 ratios. Then people (NWS) got aggressive with 4-6″ type accumulations. The problem is if just a minor variance happens in QPF say .10-15″ and a more realistic 12 or 13:1 averages out, you end up with a 1-2″ storm. (Pretty much what took place) Forecasters like disturbed weather, snow is more exciting to most, in a down winter, we tend to look for higher accumulation outcomes. General rule be careful on relying on aggressive ratios to drive accumulation numbers, especially with moisture starved events.

  5. Total snowfall at Logan to date = 15.6″
    Total snowfall at Logan to date 2016 = 10.4″

    We probably won’t be above last year’s much longer.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Off to run some errands before the big game.

    This Winter has been a complete disappointment and unless something changes
    really soon, it is not likely to change much.

    Re: Tuesday

    NAM and GFS want a front end thump of snow as far South as just south of Boston.
    6Z GFS about 4-6 inches. NAM 2-4 inches. EURO just about Zilch for Boston with
    some farther North. Ice indicating farther North.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017020506&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=090

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017020512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    NWS talks about a weak wave of low pressure along the warm front,
    temporarily preventing the warm front from moving Northward.
    It won’t help with snow here, but will help keep cold and thus ice inland.

    We shall see. Honestly, I don’t see that much snow here. But who knows.

    2. That actually represented a dramatic eastward correction over the 6z run. As TK has alluded to, that wave should sail far to the east.

  8. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The coldest temperature ever recorded in Houston is ..

    A. -5 degrees
    B. 5 degrees
    C. 15 degrees
    D. 25 degrees

    Answer later today.

    2. I’m working on a perfect streak…..not one most would aspire to but isn’t perfect ….perfect

      I’ll say A

      Thank you Longshot

      Go Pats

      I heard a great commentary on Brady yesterday and that with all he has been through in this year….most important clearly to him is family….he has not once been anything but graciously positive. What an example he is for young and old alike.

  11. An admission…..I am a hoping for deck sitting weather. That doesn’t translate to no snow or wishing time would pass. I have selfish reasons however…..it is my go to place for all that is beautiful in this world

  12. Curious everyone’s Super Bowl Predictions for score today. I am not a fan of either team and I am just rooting for a classic to end the season on what has been other than the Packers Cowboys game a lot of bad playoff games.
    Patriots 27 Falcons 24.

    1. Patriots 34, Falcons 17….a lot of talk about the falcons number one offense…Pats offense is not far behind without a full season for Brady or dion lewis

      1. I small a trap game. Frankly I am worried. It seems every time
        we expect an easy win, the Pats run into trouble, so we shall see.

        I still think they win, but in a close one.
        Something like 27-24.

        1. The only way the Pats fall into a “trap” is if they are not good enough to get to this game in the first place…

          37-17

          2. wow. I disagree.

            They’re good enough to get here alright, but
            they are still susceptible to a stinker. I just hope it is not today, but that is my worry.

            We shall see.

    2. I don’t predict for Pats as you know. I think both teams are great. I’ve enjoyed watching Atlanta. I just hope it is a good game and not one sided.

    1. I don’t agree that it should be open.

      Shower risk lowers, yes, but it’s not zero, and it could pop very fast.

      1. I dunno, I think they take that chance. NFL rules require games
        to be played with roof open in overtime even if it starts raining.
        I just have this feeling it will be open. We’ll see. 😀

          1. You won’t be surprised to know I think the best team wins when it plays against the best adversaries….Mother Nature included. I’m not a fan of removing weather from the equation 🙂

            1. I agree, but then why have a roof in the 1st place??

              Silliness abounds.

              ALL that said, I’d like the roof open.
              who gives a crap about a few showers. 😀

              1. I’m just a purist at heart so agree re roof. It translates to our American golf courses. The US team has a meltdown if it has to okay at some of the natural courses in Europe

  14. In Super Bowls best offense against best defense the best defensive team is 5-1 in the Super Bowl. I just think the Patriots will be able to keep this offense in check. If your betting the game I think it will be a push.

    1. It used to be correct, but it is old. I don’t think it applies anymore.

      I listened to Michael A. Smith discuss this very subject on Weei yesterday
      morning. He stated that he believed the cliches that Boston was a racist city
      until he visited the city. On air he emphatically stated that boston was NOT
      a racist city.

  16. If the game stays low scoring, that will favor the pats. If it becomes a shootout I don’t like the pats chances. Atlanta has too many weapons and too much speed on offense. I think this is the game Brady will really feel the loss of Gronk. With that said, I think low scoring and the Pats win 20-17

  18. Everybody is acting like Atlanta is 18-0. They were 11-5 in the regular season. The way they won a lot of those games were by outscoring their opponent that had not so great defenses. When they ran into a good defense, they lost or won by A TD or less. A lot of their games the opponent scored close to or over 30 points. They play in a division with Tampa, New Orleans, and Carolina. They beat Denver 23-16, (good defense, no offense) lost to San Diego 33-30, lost to philly 24-15. They played the NFC west and AFC west (not exactly power houses).

    Now, the Pats play in a weak division too, and they also played the AFC west. But lets not act like Atlanta is the second coming of the ’86 bears or the ’04 Pats. They’re a good team and the pats are going to need to play a clean game or it’ll be a long night. But….if the Pats play their game, make Atlanta take 10-12 plays and drive 80 yards to score, the Pats should win. And don’t be surprised if the Pats give up 10 to 12 yards at a pop on passes by Ryan, they will. The idea is to play a deep zone, don’t let them get a lot of YAC, and bottle them up in the red zone and force field goals. That’s the way the Pats win. Pats defense is better. They’ll make a couple more stops than the Falcons.

    38-24 Pats

    1. I completely understand what you are saying. However,it is exactly at times like this that the Pats under perform. Just be on the look out for them having a rough day I am NOT saying they will lose, although it is on the table, just that I think the game will be much rougher than people are thinking.

      1. I never said it was it wasn’t going to be rough.
        But in the end, a super bowl is a football game, just like a game in week 5 or 10. Same game, same rules.
        And the fact you’re a glass is a 7/8ths empty type of guy 😉

        Lol

        1. Well, we’ll all watch it and see. Seriously, I hope the PATS
          blow them off of the map! I want TB12 to throw 6 or more TDs. I mean a serious big time blow out.

          1. Yea, me too. I’m tired of these close SB the pats are in. I’d love to see s blow out like Montana used to pull off. To hell with these “good competitive games”. My heart can’t take that. Give me a blow out.

  19. Hmmmm. I’ll just hope to not see a blowout in either direction. I like the SB to be a good match. And I like the commercials. And I hope I’m going to like the prime rib in the oven. Apparently, there is a lot to like…….from a person who says…

    What glass

  20. A nice simple comparison between the 12z Wed Feb 15 forecast from the 12z runs of these models…

    GEM: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017020512/gem_z500_mslp_us_41.png
    GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020512/gfs_z500_mslp_us_41.png
    ECMWF: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017020512/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

    Good example of model variability even though they all have a system around for that day.

    1. That is honestly how I feel about models!! When we get to perhaps 72 hours or better yet 60 hours, I begin to feel like the picture is being drawn pretty well but even then I remain a little skeptical.

      1. There are patterns in which the models do a decent job beyond 72. This is NOT one of them – AT ALL.

  24. The Falcons are a very good team. In terms of net talent, probably superior to the Pats. I have to take the Pats to win though. 31-27.

    Not sure if anyone else was watching the C’s game as a warmup, but a special moment at the end with Paul Pierce hitting a 3 in his last game in Boston. Couldn’t have been scripted better. C’s are my number two team behind the Pats, nice little group they’ve got this season.

    1. We don’t watch basketball in this house as nobody cares about it. Football, hockey & baseball only. If the celtics were going for a huge win of course we’d watch it. Go pats should be a good one . Talk after the game I’ve got a ton of food to put out .

      1. I Don’t care much for the NBA. No defense, no offensive rebounding to speak of.
        Hockey to me is soccer on ice. Not really into it.
        Once this game ends tonight, I’m on to baseball.

        1. I’m not a fan of any but baseball is one I like best. I’m going to try and get back into it this year

  25. I am looking forward to March Madness for the next big sporting event of the year. Selection Sunday five weeks from tonight.

    1. My brother who lives in central CT (Manchester) runs a pool annually. I’m always in it. 🙂

  27. I am hoping this year not to be out of the pool after the second day of the tournament. Middle Tennessee hurt a lot of people’s brackets last year upsetting Michigan State.

  29. That was cool to see as well as the MVP’s of previous Super Bowls last year prior to Super Bowl 50.

    1. Yes it sure was.

      I love that they enter as a team rather than individual intros. I wonder who started doing that 😉

  30. Game about to begin so here is the quiz answer.

    The coldest temperature ever recorded in Houston is ..

    A. -5 degrees
    B. 5 degrees
    C. 15 degrees
    D. 25 degrees

    The answer is B.

    1. It is what happens when it is supposed to be a shoe in and also when we have a week off. Saw in at the start of the playoffs. It ain’t over till it’s over

  37. So far they are being totally out played. I’m kinda surprised actually. Looks like they aren’t prepared.
    Lots of football left, but what I’m seeing right now leaves me unimpressed

    1. not sure they are ever unprepared. Could be Falcons are just playing better….but let’s see as there is still plenty of time

  38. Falcons clearly the better all-around team. I figured the Pats would have some X factor to give them an edge. Obviously haven’t seen it yet, but it’s early.

    1. I don’t agree with them being better all around team. Pretty even matched. Pats just aren’t executing whatsoever .

  45. Being down so much now, it will only get easier for the Falcons to defend as the Pats offense will be very predictable.

    1. Exactly. I must say I’m in total shock on this first half . Playing catch up ball down 21. Chat after game

  47. I am having trouble understanding. You are embarrassed by a team that has taken you to the super bowl nine times? I’ve just been thinking how lucky we are to have this team.

    2. For me, it’s about taking advantage of opportunities. They’re in the super bowl yes but if u ask anyone on this team, that’s not good enough. Need to win or else they just become another statistic

      1. The expectation was they were going to play well. Sure, the Falcons are playing well, but man, the Pats o line is smelling up the joint.
        Pats defense is ok, I’ve had no complaints there, really. That series where Atlanta went 71 yards in 5 plays was bad, but 2 scores were off turn overs. O line protection is the biggest issue.

  48. Let’s see if Atlanta can do that again in the 2nd half. If they can, they deserve to win. I believe the score is going to tighten a lot in the 2nd half.

    1. I dunno tom. The offense needs to tighten up the protection if the Pats do anything in the second half.

    1. You got that right.
      They need a new left tackle. Solder haft progressed much in the last few years. Time to cut bait with him.

  60. 21 points scored by the Falcons offense isn’t a bad job by the Pats defense. I thought Atlanta would score 21 to 28 points. I just thought the Pats could score in the 30’s.
    The Pats offense has just been dreadful.

  61. Falcons have only run like 35 offensive plays to this point. If I told you that this morning, you’d have bet your kids’ tuition on a big patriots win

    1. Oh yea, for sure.
      Falcons defense stepped it up a notch, but they didn’t get great in 2 weeks. Pats pass protection has been non existent.

      1. Even if they lose this game, this game was NOT over that early.

        I saw posts of fans going to bed, turning the channel, driving home from their visits… at HALF TIME!

        Not real fans, sorry. 🙂

  76. The pats did not show up for 95% of the game but holy shit did they finish it . They were getting demolished I can’t believe it. Good thing I’m off tomorrow.

    2. I just think it’s funny that if you say the pats were not in this game at all it’s like oh my, how dare you . I’m the happiest guy out there and they deserve this but it was ugly for them for awhile

      1. Not sure who that is addressed to. I habe always believed you respect and support and have faith in your team whether they win or lose. It is the same with people. I sure don’t like people because they do everything right. No one can meet that standard. I sure as heck wouldn’t want to be held to a standard of having to be perfect. To me it is funny when people only support a team or player when he is winning for them. But Boston has always had fair weather fans.

  79. That’s the most amazing thing I ever saw sports wise. I think that might beat coming back on the Yankees down 0-3 in 2004. I dunno what to think. They played like crap for 3 quarters then came alive.
    I’m stunned

  80. I’m speechless. What an amazing comeback, one that will be talked about for generations. I’m sorry I ever doubted this team

  82. I may keep posting for an hour. TK you might want to block me. I’m too wound up

    In all of this we truly have to show the Falcons the respect they deserve. Awesome young QB

  85. This game was not lost in the 1st quarter, it was not lost in the 2nd quarter, it was not lost by halftime. This game was NEVER lost.

    New England Patriots: Super Bowl Champions!
    NEVER give up.

  86. UNBELIEVABLE!!!
    I am glad the Falcons aren’t my team after blowing that lead I think I would be sick to my stomach.

    1. Nah. I’m proud for them too. Was the tale of two halves. Look what they scored against the greatest team. Two teams that obviously belonged in the SB

  90. What a night! As ugly as it got at times I kept telling my boys that it isn’t over until it is over. My 9-year old has such heart for the Pats and just the game. He was taking it hard when they were losing and to see him quietly walk out of the living room to cry when they won just melted my heart. I think he may have earned his first day off from school on Tuesday. 🙂

  97. February 5th is my birthday – what an amazing present from the Pats! I was on FB all night rallying the troops – never doubted we would be ok because my 6 year old son’s magic 8 ball said “It is decidedly so.” Oh and they couldn’t possibly lose on my birthday. Now I’m going to go grab a Bud and a Coke to have in my new Audi!

  98. I just posted a very short update which is basically edited version of yesterday’s forecast, but I will update again at 3PM today…

  99. Precipitation is RAPIDLY approaching. What form will it take when it reaches boston? clearly snow to the North of the City. Could be snow, sleet or both to start in the City. We’ll know in an hour or 2. 😀

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