Monday Forecast

356 Comments

7:33AM / EDIT 3:30PM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
High pressure moves out of the region by tonight and a warm front approaches from the south by early Tuesday. A little wave of low pressure moving along this front will keep it from advancing too far north at first. Eventually, a stronger low, the parent to this front, will move through the Great Lakes and into southern Canada, dragging warmer air up into southern New England. As is typical, the cold air will hang on longest over the interior and especially valley locations. Precipitation is expected to arrive and also develop over the region from the pre-dawn hours to shortly after dawn Tuesday so that by early to mid morning much of southern NH and northern to central MA will be snowing, with mix/rain to the south. This rain/snow line will advance slowly northward during the day, but cold air hanging at the surface means that a period of freezing rain is likely away from the coast especially in north central to interior northeastern MA and southern NH. These areas will also see the most snow before the changeover, although the amounts will not be all that significant. By Tuesday night and early Wednesday, the warm air wins out with plain rain tapering to rain showers. A cold front will come through later Wednesday without much fanfare, but will deliver enough cold air so that the next precipitation threat, Thursday, would be in the form of snow. The question is, how far north does the low pressure area bringing this threat track? For now, going to lean toward a light to moderate snow event, with the greatest chance for moderate amounts being over southeastern MA, RI, and parts of CT, with less to the north. This system should also be moving fairly quickly. By Friday, windy/cold but dry weather is back.
TODAY: Mostly sunny through early afternoon. Mostly cloudy late in the day. Highs 32-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow with a coating to a few inches possible mainly along and west of I-95 and north of the Mass Pike with the greatest chance of a few inches in higher elevations of north central MA to southwestern NH, changing sleet and freezing rain here during the day. Brief snow/sleet/rain elsewhere becoming mainly rain during the day. Highs 31-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely mainly morning. Lows 31-39 early. Highs 45-55, warmest southeastern areas.
THURSDAY: Chance of snow AM. Breaking clouds PM. Windy. Temperatures fall 30s to 20s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 12-20. Highs 28-35.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
A couple small low pressure areas are expected to track through the region during the weekend of February 11-12 with some light snow/rain. Will fine-tune the details as it gets closer. Improving weather but turning windy and colder by later February 13 through February 14. Next storm threat in pattern of fast-moving systems will be here as early as February 15.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
Unsettled with precipitation threat to start the period, then trending drier. Temperatures near to below normal.

356 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Thanks Tk. I wonder how many people bang in today . Looking wet for the parade ugh!!!! The best SB win in 51 yrs as no other team ever has won after being down that many points . I just can’t believe it I was so mad most of the game and than the come back Wow. Good to be a pats fan today . Someone stole Brady’s game shirt.

      1. FABULOUS!!!! Thanks for asking 🙂

        Drove by Sunapee to and from VT. I waved to your brother from Route 89.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I still can’t believe what I witnessed last night.

    I had told my wife when they were behind 28-3, that it looked like it was over, however, they “could” come back but it was a tall order. Pats desperately needed that turnover, without it, they don’t win. Hey, the pats gave them 2 turnovers.

    2 scores with 2 2-point conversions. I don’t think that has ever happened before either.

    Re: Tomorrow
    All of the latest runs have ZILCH for snow in SNE. If there is any snow at all, it will go over to rain (perhaps ever so brief sleet) very quickly. Not all that much snow up North either with more icing.

    re: Thursday
    GFS, NAM and EURO all call for SNOW on Thursday with the Euro the most
    robust. Stay tuned to future runs for more details. FWIW, the Euro has 7.1 inches
    for Boston. We’ll see if the Euro stays the course with today’s 12Z run.

    Here is the Euro Snow Map: (click on image to enlarge)

    http://imgur.com/a/CdCwV

    GFS and NAM considerably less.

        1. I don’t know about that. When the event is REAL
          and not fictional, his snow algorithm is not all
          that bad. It’s really out there with “fictional” or “fantasy” events.

          Perhaps this event will be a good barometer for
          his snow algorithm. This guy is an educated meteorologist and not just a total stiff. Certainly does
          NOT mean that his algorithm is totally accurate.

          We shall see. I want to monitor this one carefully as I truly want to see if this algorithm is decent or full of
          crap.

  8. Any ice accretion maps for tomorrow? I have an appt. in Blackstone tomorrow and trying to decide if I should reschedule. I’m not really concerned about the drive down. It’s more coming back to Sterling.

  9. Thank you TK! We are getting our warm clothing and rain gear ready for the parade tomorrow. I must be out of my mind!

    1. Yup, especially compared to the previous one where
      the technician asks “Is that it?” and Tom responds with “For now”.
      😀

  16. What a game last night! Have to admit – at the beginning, felt kind of low – felt they could lose. But what a change! Sometimes, I think, when things are looking down and then they get up it makes it all the better. In any case, the Patriots are a championship team, win or lose. And they are winners.

    Weather-wise, hoping for at least ONE decent snowstorm before this winter is over. Of course, after TK gets back! In any case, I’ve been hearing a lot of birds singing when I go out early. Either they are nuts or we might get an early spring.

  17. Latest from NWS re: Tomorrow

    Snow and Ice amounts…
    Only minor snow accum expected south of the Mass Pike due to quick
    changeover. Preliminary forecast is less than an inch across
    CT, RI and SE MA with an inch or 2 near the Mass Pike, with
    amounts increasing to 2 to 4 inches closer to the NH border.
    Highest amounts will likely be across far north central MA and
    interior NE MA. Amounts could be lower or higher depending on
    the timing of the changeover. Regarding ice, potential for
    0.10 to 0.25″ ice accretion across the E slopes of the
    Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills. However, some icing is
    likely across northern CT and northern RI during Tue morning.
    There will be some impact to the morning commute, especially the
    later part due to some light snow and mixed precip. But a more
    significant impact is likely for the evening commute north of
    the Mass Pike.

    Headlines…
    A winter weather advisory will be issued for most of the
    interior west of the I-95 corridor. South of the Pike, advisory
    is mainly for a period of freezing rain, while to the north it
    is for a combination of snow and ice.

    1. NWS discussion re: Thursday System

      Wednesday night-Thursday…

      Developing low pressure will push up the eastern seaboard during
      this timeframe. As mentioned above, a lot of question as to the
      exact track and strength of this low. There is the potential for
      a moderate snowfall with this system for possibly southern
      areas. However, if this system tracks farther N, could affect
      more of the region. Something to keep a close eye on. Will also
      see developing N-NE winds gusting to 25-30 kt Wed night into Thu,
      highest along the coast. With the onshore flow and mild ocean
      temperatures for this time of year, could see mainly rain mainly
      across portions of Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha`s Vineyard.

      This low remains progressive, at least at this point, in a
      rather strong SW flow with a digging H5 trough which should
      allow the low to exit rather quickly during Thu. Again, this is
      dependent upon whether the low deepens rapidly and how close it
      comes to or just inside the 40N/70W benchmark.

        1. Sure does have more detail. Thanks.

          I seem to keep forgetting about that site. I need to check in with that site more often. I tend to use Instant Weather maps because it has the data first, ahead of Pivotal, Cod and tropical tidbits. But the detail of pivotal is far superior to instant weather maps.

          Question: You say you are not buying it. Care to elaborate as to the reasons why? Curious.

          Many thanks

          1. I said I wasn’t buying it yet. We need to see what happens with tomorrow’s storm 1st. How that evolves will impact how the 2nd storm evolves.

            1. Ok, thanks. Fair enough.

              Here’s hoping we salvage something
              out of Thursday. We have a ways to go to get the snowfall up to average or even close. Also hoping that the 2nd 1/2 of the month gets us there.

  18. Greatest of All Time (GOAT) athlete: Tom Brady
    GOAT New England weather event: Blizzard of 1978, began at this hour, 39 years ago today (also a Monday!)

    1. Was it this hour? I remember work letting everyone go around 2:30-3:00. The VP, who was also a great friend, stood at the door saying with a smile he would see us “tomorrow.” He was one of the cars stranded on 128. He had enough gas that he took children and adults from nearby cars into his when they ran out of gas. Two company employees finally used some of the snow equipment they had to go through fields to get to him.

      Me? I just happened, as I am sure you all know by now, to be stranded at Mac’s apartment in Medford. Oh darn 🙂

  23. Yup – the track for the Thursday one is still very much a big question mark, and a lot of it will be determined by what tomorrow’s system does.

    Just got back from waiting in line with 1000 other people in Foxboro. I have a brand new hat and t-shirt for my collection.

    1. Here’s what WPC is thinking for Thursday:

      DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC LATE WED
      ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
      PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/ECMWF BLEND
      CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

      DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE RATHER LARGE FOR THE EAST COAST LATE
      WED INTO THU. REGARDING THE UPPER PATTERN…THE 12Z CMC AND 12Z
      UKMET ARE FLAT WITH THE 546 DAM HEIGHT CONTOUR VALID 12Z/09 EAST
      OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF NEARER TO THE BETTER
      CLUSTERING. THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT WITH THE MOST RECENT
      ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TO BE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN
      REPRESENTING A PREFERRED MIDDLE GROUND. THE 12Z ECMWF HEIGHTS ARE
      A BIT WEAKER AND THE SURFACE LOW SLIGHTLY SOUTH ALONG THE
      MID-ATLANTIC COAST COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE SURFACE LOW
      IN THE 12Z GFS APPEARS FAST CONSIDERING THE ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOW
      PLOTS…BUT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BLENDED
      POSITION IS NEAR THE BROAD LOW PLOT CONSENSUS. THIS PREFERENCE IS
      A BIT BELOW AVERAGE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF AGREEMENT IN THE
      LATEST ENSEMBLE/DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.

      1. Oh, the color is fine. Just not for February, imho. 😀
        Like I said, May or even April, but not February.

        For this February, a nice ugly brown would be appropriate. 😀

    1. No, it does not.
      Also, this run, right or wrong, introduces boundary layer issues along
      the coast and in SE SNE. In other words, this one comes too close to
      the coast, while the Euro has it too far off the coast.

      Perhaps there will be some middle ground with this?

      TETT!!!!

      That’s not a dirty word, but rather “Too Early To Tell” from our old
      friend Dick Albert. 😀

  26. Bastardi now starting to hype things up for next week:

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 1h1 hour ago
    Euro going wild day 10. Interesting because strong phase 8 in 1978 had monster New England Blizzard in similar MJO phase/amplitude

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 1h1 hour ago
    Only twice in 40 years has the MJO cranked this strong as forecasted in Feb 1978 and 1988
    Has to maintain into 1/2 to meet criteria

    This is the 12z Euro at Day 10:
    https://s24.postimg.org/f0h3x4znp/Capture.jpg

    It’s a nice look and who knows what happens if the model ran another 12 hours, but I wouldn’t exactly call it going “wild”. He must just be talking about the forecasted strength of MJO Phase 8.

    2. FWIW, knowing it is a full 10 days out, looking at the 500MB chart (pretty juiced up I might add), this might come too close to the coast and rain over much
      of SNE. A long way off to worry about rain/snow lines. Let’s see IF it’s even
      there with the 0Z run. 😀

    3. He’s only saying it because today’s February 6. I can read this guy like a book. Trust me.

  27. At least between Thursday and potentially next week, things are starting to look a bit more interesting for snow chances. But who knows. The inconsistencies of the models in the long range continues and should be taken with a block of salt.

    1. There may be a few flakes to a dusting after 10:30PM tonight although this has a 50/50 chance of staying just northeast of Woburn.

      The Tuesday morning snow should develop overhead between 7:30 and 8:30.

  30. I have a fairly strong hunch a weaker/more southern track prevails for Thursday. Very fast flow. There are opportunities out there though, which is something we haven’t seen much of this winter. That MJO pulse will have to be reckoned with around mid-month.

    We will have another warm-up before that though, following a quick cold shot after Thursday’s likely graze/miss.

  32. There. Changed the color to a more muted pink, for that “fake holiday” called Valentine’s Day.

  33. In simple terms, can someone explain what MJO is? Joe Bastardi says that next week’s MJO looks like February, 1978.
    What could that possibly bode for the end of next week?

    MJO sounds like part of a lyric from “LA Woman” by The Doors.

  34. Is it me or does some enterprising Met or wannabe Met find a way every February to draw comparisons to February 1978??

    2. Heck, it was a first for so many of us and It wss historic. Why not. The average person is smart enough to figure it out.

      As far as storms since then, we learned to close roads pre storm….despite protests of folks who are silly enough to think it doesn’t work. Patrick and Baker have each closed prestorm.

      I’d love to hear from those who have hard data re overall destruction. For instance, I know we have had some really horrific costal damage but how does that compare? Also would like to hear from the folks who maintain public roads with regard to advancements in pretreating.

  35. Well they can keep comparing things to the 1978 storm, but so far there has been nothing like it.

    1. Tk coating for work tomorrow or no . Earlier today I was called in for early tomorrow than it was scratched.

    2. Thanks. I don’t recall overall destruction. I certainly do recall a storm that gave some areas as much snow or that did severe damage to the coast. It seems to me that it was the overall destruction. But still I’d like to know if more advanced road treatment has avoided some of the problems. Or was it the governors closing roads.

  36. In spite of the tons of snow that fell the last week of January into most of February 2015 not one storm that I can recall was memorable. After a while, they all seemed to have the same snow amounts. At least in 1978 there was that January 20th Storm (21.0″) and of course the infamous February Blizzard (27.1″).

  37. Either the 0z NAM is totally unhinged, or we’ll need a major change to the Thursday forecast. I think the former… but we did say that another time earlier this winter.

  40. The 0z NAM crushes us again on Thursday. Amped and close to the coast. There are also as many GFS ensemble members that are closer to the NAM track as there are those with the more off shore solution. No idea how this one is going to play out.

    1. Note that a little bit of that snow in VT, NH, ME is from the storm tomorrow but pretty much all of it in SNE is solely from the Thursday system.

  46. 0z Euro much more amped and closer to the coast. Not to the extreme of the NAM but 6″+ for eastern CT, eastern MA and RI. Things starting to get real interesting for Thursday!

  47. Hmmm
    Thursday looking more and more to be a go.
    Euro and now gfs on board, although not quite to the extent of the Nam. Still both want to deliver 6-8 inches. With this Winter, I’ll take that.

  48. Re: this morning
    with the 6z runs and latest hrrr and rap, it looks like even boston could get into
    the frozen precipitation. Although currently sitting at 35 at my house, however dp is 24.

    Tropical tidbits shows 4 inches for boston, but we know what that is about. it’s the sleet. kuchera showing 1-2.5 inches depending on model and site with a sharp drop off South of the City. Boston appears to be right on the line, so we shall see how
    much, if any frozen precip Boston gets.

    Figure around an inch of snow and sleet. Around 15Z it is progged to come down in buckets for a while, just in time for the parade, I suppose. Should be interesting.

    I can’t wait for the 12Z runs for Thursday. looking better and better. We shall see.

    As Mark indicated, next week looks dicey as well, although precipitation type
    is questionable at this time. Long way off.

  49. I wonder IF our often maligned NAM wasn’t the first to be onto something regarding Thursday???? We’ll see what today’s 12z runs show.

      1. What we know is that the NAM had it full blown, while the Euro and GFS had it mostly off shore. Now the GFS and Euro have it close enough for a moderate event. Does that translate to reality?
        We’ll know on Thursday. 😀

  50. I like the fact that there all showing accumulating snow which is a good sign. Hopefully this trend will continue.

  51. A bit of maintenance keeps me from my admin account for a while so the update will be delayed for a while. Carry on here for now…

  52. I don’t have a feeling, one way or the other, for Thursday.

    I need more information …… 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I am beginning to REALLY FEEL IT for a change.
      I’ll probably be disappointed, but I am feeling something.

  54. What looks like snow but sounds icier started less than 15 minutes ago and is dusting car, driveway, edges of road, sidewalk quickly. Temp Sutton 32.3 with 26 DP.

  55. Good morning again. Just arrived at the office.
    It’s spitting something. Looking at windshield and then feeling it on my face
    on the way in, it looks and feels like liquid and not frozen. I suppose it “could” be
    some low level drizzle type and when it gets going it could still be frozen OR it could
    be that what Boston gets will be LIQUID.

    I’ll know within the hour. 😀

  56. Re: Claude

    YES, I am thrilled they finally let that ding bat go. He’s better suited for
    coaching the flea circus.

    However, I don’t hold out any hope for the organization as they are totally and completely lost! They do not know what they are doing and as long as they have
    that crazy owner, they are going nowhere fast. Just my opinion fwiw. 😀

    1. Bruins are fighting for last playoff spot they won’t get it now . Coach always takes the fall . He will have a job by weeks end . they should fire Cam the VP

      1. Yes, they should. They should also fire Sweeney.
        For a Harvard Grad, he appears pretty stupid.
        I wonder if they just pushed him through as an athlete?
        I don’t know, but he just doesn’t come across as being a smart
        guy.

        In any case, the whole organization needs to be dynamited as in severely blown up.

  58. OK, I can now tell you that it is SNOWING in Boston. NOT sleet, but SNOW.
    How long it lasts is anyone’s guess. According to HRRR, frozen precip could last in
    Boston until about 2PM. I suspect that is rather generous. My guess is plain rain
    by NOON. We shall see.

  59. Waiting to see if the 12z NAM is still juiced up. On the past few runs of the NAM those were some pretty dark blues across parts of the northeast. If this verifies I would be surprised.

    1. I am pretty sure that the NAM will remain juiced up.
      What I am wondering is if the GFS and EURO track it closer and
      thus deliver more of a punch. We shall see.

  60. NWS update
    ***Burst of moderate to even briefly heavy snow possible across
    north central and especially northeast MA through early afternoon***

    820 am update…

    Based on some of the short term guidance this morning, concern
    growing for a burst of moderate to perhaps even briefly heavy
    snow from 9 am to 1 pm across north central and especially
    northeast MA. The HRRR/RAP/RPM models all depict this scenario.
    In addition, both the GFS/NAM indicate a band of very strong
    omega in excess of 20 units in the snowgrowth region moving
    across the region.

    With that said, will increase snow amounts a bit across
    northeast MA. A few inches of snow seems like a good bet
    localized 4-5 inch amounts are certainly possible near the NH
    border.

    Very tricky situation in Boston as soundings are nearly
    isothermal, but with strong lift sleet may flip initial
    sleet/rain over to a burst of snow. Going to issue a special
    weather statement to highlight these concerns.

    No other changes to the forecast at this time, with rain south
    of the Pike along the coast but there could be some sleet mixed
    in with initially dry boundary layer. However, freezing rain
    currently falling in northern CT and perhaps the higher terrain
    of northwest RI as previous forecast captures well.

  62. FWIW, the 0Z UKMET is also on board with a Moderate snow event for Thursday.

    Can’t wait for 12Z runs.

  63. I am waiting for that first HOLY CRAP BATMAN from you JPDave of this winter season. Hopefully this will be the one.
    Some freezing rain here and a lot of schools closed today in CT.

  64. Everyplace reporting rain in Sutton but it is sleet….fairly good sized pellets, strong moderate in intensity and making lots of noise on the house. Temp dropped very slightly to 31.4

    1. It’s already getting lighter in this area not far from you . This isn’t going to stick on roads or walkways .

    1. If you are seeing that, it is only momentary. Looking at radar, plenty of
      HEAVIER echoes to come through. 😀

  69. Snow is finally moving into Wilmington. Took long enough, I’ve seen a grand total of three snowflakes since 7 AM!

  70. 12Z NAM is still pretty juiced up, but NOT a holy crap batman juiced up. Not yet
    anyway. Still cranking.

  71. Light to moderate ice pellets mixed in with a few wet snow flakes.

    The ground is lightly coated in ice pellets, which is not the common in Marshfield.

    2. The NAM, besides its excessive precip forecasts, also seems to be too far north and west many times.

      I remember one system during the Feb snow blitz 2 winters ago, where it had Burlington, VT and Montreal, Canada getting the snow bullseye, it had sleet in Boston and mostly rain in Marshfield and everything ended up being displaced about 75 to 100 miles further south and east. I don’t think it even ended up snowing in Montreal. 🙂 🙂

      1. Yes, I have seen that before, HOWEVER, when the GFS AND the Euro come on board, that has to give one pause.

        12Z Run “appears” to have corrected slightly South and East, yet
        still has a bullseye in the berks and S. VT. 😀

      1. Somewhere in the 10AM to 1PM time frame. Hard to pin point it any better than that at this point. 😀

  73. Ough OH!!!

    GIGANTIC SNOW FLAKES. 2 inch diameter.
    That’s usually the KISS OF DEATH! We shall see, but here’s guessing the snow,
    what little there was of it, it just about done. 😀

  75. I don’t watch hockey at all, but I heard they’re firing Claude during the Patriots championship parade. If so that’s an incredibly petty move. They won’t do anything until Jacobs and Neely are cannon fired 10,000 miles away from Boston.

    1. The Bruins …. they just got rid of their biggest asset.

      I never understand why people think the Bruins should be good, given this roster. Their 3rd and 4th lines are laughable. OK, they have a couple good forwards and a decent center, but its not like its Sydney Crosby … and their best defenseman is 37 years old. I thought Claude was pulling off a miracle this year having them with as many points and wins as they have.

      1. Sorry that I disagree, but that aside, they really BLEW it
        when they UNLOADED Tyler Seguin. They traded him for
        what amounts to a BAG OF PUCKS! What a STUPID move!
        DUMB DUMB DUMB!!!!

  76. We just switched from ice pellets to big wet snow flakes. That must be that narrow strip of yellow on the radar.

  79. The 12z NAM doesn’t sway me one way or the other.

    I need to see the 12z EURO, GFS and also get of sense of what their ensemble means look like.

    Also, seems a bit of a trend to strengthen this wave a bit quicker, which might further tighten the northern precip shield.

    1. Agree totally. IF anything, the NAM has trended to a less loaded system
      and moved it a tad more off shore.

      Honestly, I don’t know what to expect from the GFS and EURO.

      Currently it does not look Major. A Moderate event seems more in the cards, but
      we have a few more runs to get a better idea. Could still pass more off shore
      and end up more of a light event OR as TK indicated Light-Moderate whatever that is?? 4-8?????, 3-6?????? 2-4???? 3-5???? Somewhere in there.

      1. I don’t know what to expect either.

        Another split decision wouldn’t surprise me ….

        Wouldn’t be surprised to be seeking more clarity, even tomorrow.

    1. Thanks JJ. Please share any of those you find. I always find them interesting and I for one very much appreciate it.

  85. According to the NBC Boston map, Boston has a 77% chance of a snowstorm on Thursday with up to 86% for the Cape…if I understand correctly. That new station seems very innovative in how they present weather to viewers.

    1. probably a reflection of precip intensity. Since the column is marginally cold enough at our latitude, only when it precips hard is it likely to fall as wet snow.

      Over time, the column should be warming at a layer above, so the wet snow flakes are on borrowed time. 🙂 🙂

      1. Thank you, Tom. I noticed it was when the precip lighter it changed to rain and now it seems to have a few small flakes thrown in. It is the kitchen sink

  88. Everything beginning to WHITEN up here, even the pavements as the snow has
    become heavier and is sticking now.

  93. Well, I must say that I NEVER in a million years expected this today!
    It’s a Winter Wonderland out there as everything is covered in SNOW!!

    AWESOME!!!

    It will look fantastic for the Parade!!!! (IF it doesn’t turn before it gets going)

  94. I would rather the snow than the off and on light freezing rain that has been going on here this morning.

  98. Straight cold rain here in Walpole. Never snowed a flake, just a bit of sleety rain at the onset about 8 this morning.

  99. I am in the jackpot area with just over a foot on the GFS.
    Noticing some of those darker blues when running the loop on tropical tidbits site getting into SNE

  100. Rain line showing on Boston’s door step according toe Nexrad radar, but that is not
    always accurate. Snow has lightened up some here. vis up to 3/4 to 1 mile.
    Also “looks” like there “may” be a little sleet mixed in. Hard to tell.

  101. From Ryan Hanrahan I think this about says it all on the 12z GFS run
    Oof… GFS is a monster storm on Thursday. Stay tuned.

    1. Well, I wouldn’t go so far as to say it is a monster storm. Nice? to be sure. Monster? NOPE! If later, the totals go up such that the whole area
      generally is in a 12-18 inch zone, then I’ll concede Monster Storm.

  103. If the rest of today’s models keep spitting out 6+” for the area for Thursday I’d expect Winter Storm Watches to be hoisted by tomorrow morning.

      1. Thanks JpDave, that’s what I was seeing too just wanted to make sure. IIRC, The GFS historically moves precip in earlier and the NAM and EURO slower. Split the difference and I’m thinking sometime between 8-9am.

  109. Whatever happens Thursday, its a very fast mover. To realize those snow amounts, its gonna have to come down hard and fast.

  110. I just hope Thursday’s system doesn’t move even further north and west and introduce mixing and/or rain.

  112. 12z CMC closer as well. I would not worry at all about a mix threat save for maybe Cape/Islands. A graze or miss southeast is still more likely than that. But it sure is looking more interesting now, as might I add is much of the remainder of this month.

  113. Wow, we got more than I ever expected. It looks like at least 3 or 4 inches in Reading. We have been under a heavy band for an hour now

  114. Teleconnectors look about as favorable right now as they have all winter for some kind of event(s). Rising PNA with an MJO wave going into 7/8, a touch of blocking but nothing of too much consequence. Still fairly progressive. Only thing I’m not sold on is the -5SD AO. Even then, the bulk of that goes over the pole, the other way, I think. But, you don’t need a ton of cold to get snow.
    Get more hostile after the 20th or so. But for the next 10-15 days, there are chances.

  119. Jackpot and best dynamics for snow on most of this mornings models seems to be over eastern PA, Northern NJ, north of NYC and into western CT.

  120. Agree that it’s a winter wonderland, everything is covered in white, even the streets. Still snowing here, though the flakes are smaller. It’s beautiful!

  122. The potential Thursday storm perfectly illustrates a point I’ve been trying to make for a couple of weeks: They models are complete and utter crap beyond 72 hours. Until the energy responsible for a storm makes it onto the West Coast, you can ignore any model solutions that show a storm. The energy for the Thursday storm is moving in today. Once that happens, all of the models suddenly converge on a solution. Funny how that happens EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.

    On a separate note – firing the coach the day of another team’s parade in your city and then scheduling the press conference right in the middle of the parade? Gutless. Absolutely gutless. Cam Neely has long been my 2nd favorite Bruin of all-time (Terry O’Reilly is #1), but Cam, today, you’re no better than your old nemesis Ulfie. And I never thought I’d compare those two – ever.

    1. SAK I know little about the Bruins but had read a comment mirroring yours and I absolutely agree with you. Low doesn’t begin to describe

  123. Snow has stopped. It is light sleet OR light rain. I can’t tell from my office window.
    I’m going out in a few minutes so I’ll know for sure then. 😀

  125. I wonder what some of the snow totals from this front end thump will come in at on the in north central and NE Mass

  126. As Dave said, UKMET also drops the hammer for Thursday.

    No matter what, that Thursday system will be hauling big time. What may be memorable, if things pan out as they are currently depicted, which as SAK has told us is hardly a guarantee, would be the potential snowfall rates for a few hours during the day Thursday. The dynamics present may provide for some briefly extreme snowfall rates, even though final totals may be somewhat limited by duration. One to watch very closely.

    1. Certainly appears to be an interesting day.

      Of course I have my annual physical Thursday morning and I have to
      drive out to Needham near the Newton line and then drive back into Boston.
      My appt is at 8:15 AM, so I am hoping it doesn’t start until about 10 and then
      I’ll be fine.

      1. I am. Certainly can’t ignore the consensus. In this fast flow though, I would still leave a flatter, more sheared out option on the table. But the way it looks now, some places may crack double digit totals, most likely in the I95 corridor. But there’s also still a lot of room for change when we see such drastic changes in the modeling.

  127. Thursday’s storm will be bigger solely due to the fact I have to leave at 3AM Friday to fly to Florida…

    Blog update 3PM.

    1. Interesting–I would love a storm on February 19 so my flight to Florida gets delayed and can spend less time with my in-laws…but that’s just me.

  129. 12z Euro a pretty good hit as well. QPF for most of eastern SNE in the 0.75-0.90″ range. Ratios with this one should be pretty standard, 10:1, maybe 12:1. Doing the math, it’s a moderate to major event.

    1. So about 8″ on average, not bad. Def not a major storm in my book, but a solid moderate storm nonetheless. One thing I will say with this one unlike other storms, I don’t think there is potential for more snow. I think what models are showing given the forward speed, that is max amounts. I’m going with a general 6-10″ across the area.

      2. Probably not a bad starting point. The trend has been closer and juicier. Accounting for the fact that that trend may continue, I might even go 8-12″ for most places as an early call.

        We’re only 2 days away, so I definitely don’t think it’s too early to throw some numbers out. Fairly low confidence given the model swings though.

        1. The data I am looking delivers a pretty uniform .75QPF Hartford Springfield Worcester Lawerence then brings i up to just under an 1.0 inside 128, just over on the Cape. Also advertising an overdone 15-18:1 average ratio.

          We are going to get a nice quick dumping probably the biggest of the season (until next week 🙂 )

          3 Thoughts –

          Time it faster than modeled, move max totals south and east, and don’t over do the ratios.

          1. What’s next week???? Hopefully nothing in the Thursday/Friday time frame. My wife’s due date with our first is Friday and we gotta haul from Sharon to Boston.

              1. Tell me about it. She had a countdown going and it felt like just yesterday we were under 100 days, now its down to 10

        1. From what I could see around the city and at my house in JP, 1 inch. Clearly NOT 2.5 inches. But then Logan is farther East a tad more North, so show knows.

          HEAVY DUTY water content.

    3. Best thinking at this point would be a startup soon after daybreak, heaviest snow during the midday hours, lingering lighter snow possible through mid-evening, shutting down towards 7-9PM.

    4. Very sorry as well for your lost, TJ. That should’ve come first, but the first thing I saw was the question.

  133. Today = over perform
    Thursday = under perform

    …and this is how the universe achieves balance 😉

  134. So we’re looking at a major Cape Cod storm now?? Moderate elsewhere. Boy that EURO has a lot of pull. We shall see!

  136. Here is the Euro Snow map from my Service. It is not a 10:1 map, as it is a proprietary method that at least resembles the Kuchera method in some way. I do not know the
    inner workings of their snow algorithm.

    This map appears to be pretty much in line, no?

    http://imgur.com/a/cvNVZ

    2. That seems pretty good based on the model’s foretasted QPF.

      I saw one ECMWF snow tool output that was at about 15-18″ inside 128.

      1. Trying to rely on ECMWF snow maps is a risky proposition. Evryone will be different even a 10:1 output from one service to another. Take a consensus QPF total and then apply your own logic.

        1. To be sure. I was not suggesting that everyone run
          with the Euro snow map I posted. I posted it for completeness and something else for bloggers to look at and digest.

          I do find that the snow maps vary widely from site to site. I can understand IF a different algorithm is used, but varying for straight 10:1 maps seems odd. That “should” simply be taking the qpf and multiplying by 10 and plotting the maps. Apparently not.

          Any other methods introduces site bias for whatever their algorithm is.

          Take for example the Kuchera Method and the following 3 sites:

          Instant Weather Maps
          Pivotal Weather
          Colloge of DuPage

          All 3 are different, yet it is supposed to be the same
          method. Apparently, each site gives the method a tweak of their own??? I say IF so, they should NOT call it
          the Kuchera Method. But, I like to complain. 😀

  137. What’s the start time Thursday, which just happens to be early release Thursday. We’re out at 11:55am, well the students are …. and we have professional development most of the afternoon.

  138. Have to wonder if SE coastal Mass and the Cape may be rain to snow, with a decent thump of snow after a changeover in the middle and end of the storm …. I am talking Marshfield to Plymouth and points south and east.

    It’s going to be very mild tomorrow and if you look at the projected surface features, doesn’t look like an extremely strong push of cold into southernmost New England initially. But once the low passes the longitude of say block island of Martha’s Vineyard …….

    1. Yes, Master Subtle Feature Catcher! Plymouth (maybe marshfield) South and East, and just to the north and east of there would be my mythical snow accumulation bullseye.

  139. Today overachieved? I’m curious as to where. Sutton….a very small part of the equation….was what TK predicted to the letter.

    1. Just my opinion of course and no met am I, but I’d say he has the heavy stuff a tad N&W. Ie he appears to be relying heavily on the NAM and disregarding
      other guidance. Who knows, perhaps the NAM ends up being totally correct.
      But I wouldn’t totally discount the Euro.

      IF it were my call right now, I’d lay out a general 6-10 or 8-12 across the area as
      a first call subject to tweaks with additional guidance.

  141. Messy out there. Would love to see a big snowstorm Thurs. but I have to drive husband to eye appt. at 3:30. Oh, well.

  142. more precip coming in from the west. wundermap still shows snow north and west of boston, can anyone confirm this?

    1. It’s RAINING in the City right now. 😀
      I can’t tell you about North and West being that I am not there.

  144. just as I said it the snow picked up. I am surprised at how cold it is. Does that show that the secondary storm offshore may be stronger than predicted?

    2. Eurowx is not 10:1. It is a proprietary snow algorithm.
      I think it used to be 10:1, but not anymore.

      So right there you are comparing apples and oranges. 😀

      1. If that’s the case, then why are Eurowx totals a little lower? Maybe it’s picking up on lower than 10:1 ratios? Or maybe even some rain/mix at the onset?

        2. Ace, That’s a mystery. All I can tell you is that it is a proprietary snow algorithm. I don’t pretend to know
          what he is doing with his calculations. I can tell you that he is pretty proud of his snow tool, good or bad.

  146. Question for TK, JMA, and SAK. You were saying you wanted to see what today’s storm did to determine how Thursday’s will go. So what is it about today’s storm that will affect Thursday’s? What are the if’s/then….

    1. Think of the atmosphere as a fluid, One thing affects the other. If the storm of today is a tad slower, the energy needed for the storm Thursday will be elongated and caught by the cold front of this storm and send it to the south. I am not TK and SAK but I think thats the general idea

  150. 18Z NAM still looks very JUICY!! Still cranking.

    Oh Yeah. Close to a foot for Boston and it’s not done.

    1. Anyway the storm stalls on Thursday because of rapid intensification, thus giving us more snow? It will be hard to achieve widespread double digit snowfall with a progressive system.

      1. Not if it is DUMPING. 😀

        12 hours of precipitation at an average of 1 inch per hour
        does the job. 8 hours at ave 1.5 inch per hour does the job.

        There is talk of some very heavy banding. To me that means
        2 inches per hour, so the overall 1 inch per hour rate
        can be achieved.

      1. And it’s back to rain again! Slushy sidewalks everywhere. Am very happy to be wearing my LL Bean duck boots today!

  152. I would not count on much on Thursday until we see Arod appear. Then and only then we might have a storm.

      1. Start as rain near the ocean in extreme SE Mass or an extremely wet snow out by where you are first 1/3 of event. Transitions to a powdery snow by storm’s end.

          1. Agree. Hopefully it won’t be high water content for too long. Always worried about power issues in this area of Massachusetts with wet snow.

      1. Yikes, you mean all of those tests you had last year
        was a heart attack? I don’t think I ever realized that.

        Please take it easy.

  158. 18Z GFS has system pretty much in the same location as the 12Z run.
    However, “perhaps” a tad stronger.

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