Friday Forecast

339 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
Frigid Friday morning in the arctic air mass behind the winter storm. But the fast moving pattern continues and next we’re talking about a minor snowfall from a much smaller low pressure system early Saturday. A stronger system on its heals arrives later Sunday and departs Monday and this one will be a little more interesting, pending its evolution, which will determine its impact in terms of precipitation type and location. Will fine-tune this starting later today and early in the weekend. Cold air follows that system either way.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow toward dawn. Lows 10-18. Wind W to S 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow of 1-3 inches except under 1 inch South Coast with snow/rain mix. Partial clearing afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-28. Wind light SW.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow/mix late in the day or at night. Highs 35-42. Wind light SE.
MONDAY: Rain/mix/snow possible early. Windy. Temperatures mainly 30s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 10-18. Highs 25-32.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
Cold pattern continues with another storm threat early in the period, coldest weather mid period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
cold patter eases, milder and drier trend.

339 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. As for yesterday, TK was spot on as always with his 10-15 inch amounts while the tv mets overdid it slightly with 12 inch plus. From what I can tell most areas on average received closer to 11 inches including Logan.

    Thanks TK!

  3. The tv mets seem concerned about backlash snow for the Monday am commute.

    TK – Do you share the same concern?

    1. Some of observations out here seem fairly far off. I suspect it is due to the time measurement was taken. By 8:00 am this morning, our snow had settled considerably.

  7. Looking at the models, they have a general 2-4″ across much of SNE tonight and tomorrow AM.

    Regarding the Sunday night/Monday storm, GFS and Euro both keep the low south of Long Island and then rapidly strengthen it as it moves ENE over Cape Cod and out to see. Thermal profiles look like they are going to be an issue as the storm passes to our south (and before it strengthens) but both models have some backlash snow in eastern MA as the colder air is drawn back in and the strengthening system pulls away.

    Here is the 6z GFS snowmap:
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2017021006&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    Here is the 0Z Euro snow map:
    https://s29.postimg.org/85j5o0aw7/Capture.jpg

    Both of these maps are through Tuesday and include the snow tonight/tomorrow AM.

    1. Thanks Tom. LOVE these maps from Taunton after a storm. Really shows the disbursement of the snow and subtle contours which always intrigues me after a good storm.

  9. Thanks TK.
    2-4 inches will be nothing after over a foot yesterday.
    If that storm strengthens sooner Sun night into Monday watch out. I have a feeling I am going to be sitting out that snow for Sun night Monday and eastern parts of SNE will be in for it.

  10. Good morning and thank you TK. And to all the mets on this site, excellent job
    with yesterday’s storm. There is no better place around to be informed about
    a weather situation than right here! A Huge Thank You to TK for running this blog!

    A few last comments about yesterday….

    All in all forecasts were Good. I would like to see reports on the actual snow ratios
    as I believe the very high ratios from which the snow forecasts were based were not
    realized. While shoveling last evening AND taking into account the heavier higher water content of the 1st couple of inches, my impression was that it was NOT
    15:1 or higher. No way imho. It was closer to something like 10:1 to 12:1.

    Does anyone have that data. I think the storm pretty much was on track banding and all, but I really think the ratios were lower than expected.

    1. I would agree re : ratios.

      Your post sent me looking at obs ….

      FWIW, Logan’s melted (if I’m reading the ob correctly) was .39

      Nantuckets was 1.15 (not including many hrs of snow last evening). Nantucket reported .65 melted between 2 and 4pm, with 1 hr collecting .4 of that. It was snow at the time.

    2. Agree JpDave. Shoveling that bottom layer last night was BRUTAL. And the top layer, while ratios were higher, I’ve seen higher ratios in recent storms. We might have hit 15:1 for a brief time at the very end.

  12. As TK and Taunton NWS point out in their morning discussions, I don’t think it will be until late Saturday or even midday Sunday (12z runs come out) until the models can really hone in on the evolution of that system.

    Huge on whether the upper level feature and sfc low are north or south of our latitude and how fast the upper level feature captures and strengthens the surface low.

  13. If anyone is interested, I think the 500mb forecasts from days 3 to about 8 are really great to see. Two different, fairly strong 500 mb features headed in this general direction.

      1. That’s the energy, up where airliners cruise, that will help storms intensify near New England Sunday night, then again perhaps once or twice more next week.

    1. Thanks JJ. That is a bit LESS than the 6Z run.

      Let’s see what Uncle GFS has to say.

      So far anyway, the general forecast consensus is for 1-3 or 2-4 inches.

      That appears to be in line at the moment. Based on the 6Z runs, I thought
      that 3-6 might be in order. Guess not. Still waiting on GFS.

  15. I am waiting for the 12Z runs, but looking at the NAM 6Z and GFS 6Z along with the Euro 0Z, we have some interesting times ahead.

    1. JJ, any other time I would be thrilled with a one week snow blitz, but with my wife due next week, it couldn’t come at a worst possible time. I’ll be on edge all week.

  17. It was tough to measure last night when all was said and done, but I definitely eclipsed the foot mark in Sharon, probably on the order of 14-15.” Saw Foxboro came in at 15.4″ and I’m right on the Sharon/Foxboro line.

    2. Nice, Ace. You had more than we did by a bit. I suspect my 13.25 is on the conservative side but I’d rather ere in that direction.

      And I’ll be on edge with you also. I remember worrying about son’s birth and indeed had a foot of snow day he was born but we went in at 11:00 pm, he was born at 2:40 am and snow started about an hour later. Have three grandkids whose parents also worried. Although the one born March 18 was welcomed by a week of 80ish degree weather. I’m glad you have your inlaws to head to at first sign of the little guy’s entrance but still.

  18. Tom I looked at the Logan Observations and I agree based on what I saw
    it was 0.39 inch with a snow total of 10.7….that’s a ratio of 27:1 !!!!!

    That just doesn’t make sense to me.

    Something is funny over there. We’ll have to look at another site and compare.

    1. I just checked Worcester.

      Their melted total was: 0.59 inch
      Their snow total was: 12.9 inches

      Snow ratio: 21.9:1

    2. I just checked Worcester.

      Their melted total was: 0.59 inch
      Their snow total was: 12.9 inches

      Snow ratio: 21.9:1

      I checked Hartford, CT

      Total melted: 0.37 inch
      Total snow: 14.5 inches

      Ratio: 39:1

      Are we getting the correct melted from the NWS stations? OR are these ratios
      real? Something does not compute.

      2. I wonder if the difficulty in measuring snow in a storm like this with drifting and blowing also translates into difficulty measuring liquid equivalent. They still have to collect the snow to melt it down, no?

        1. That would make sense to me.

          When we introduce strong winds into the equation, it
          muddies the waters.

          To me the reporting station “should” have a proper set up
          where the collection device automatically melts the
          snow and collects a 100% accurate liquid equivalent.

          But not having witnessed an actual reporting station, I have no idea.

    1. Yup, clobbers down East Maine. I want to see the other models.

      I think there is a lot of lee way with this one and the final solution is NOT
      yet available. 😀

  20. From what I can see, regarding Sunday/Monday, the 12Z NAM is too little too late
    for SNE with the development of the system. Initially, there are boundary layer issues, especially South of the Pike and perhaps a bit North of there, but when it really gets
    going it is in the Gulf of Maine, just too far off to affect most of SNE. Really clobbers
    down East Maine. This is what the 12Z NAM has to say. There is clearly time to
    see how this evolves. We’ll see if the 12Z GFS and EURO agree or not.

    IF there is some model divergence, then who knows what??? Fun times ahead.

  21. I just have this feeling its going to be little too late for SNE to get into big time snows but we shall see.

    1. I understand that concern, However, it is way too close to call at this point.
      The NAM is showing a bunch of “Hang Back/Back Lash” precipitation on the
      Western and NorthWestern flank of the system. If it ends up slightly more West,
      Eastern SNE could get into the accumulating snow.

      Needs to be monitored.

  23. Thank you, TK.

    Amazing variability. Gotta love New England weather. Just this week we’ve had almost everything God’s weather book can throw at us: Sunny and relatively mild, wet snow and rain, plain rain, fog, freezing rain, balmy, snow, cold and sunny … looking ahead light snow, milder with kitchen sink mix followed by cold and sunny …

    1. Yup, typical New England Winter Weather. NOTHING out of the ordinary.

      BTW, I saw something yesterday declaring that LA NINA is OVER.
      If this is true, what does it mean for us regards the rest of this Winter?

  24. This is what skiers call a Blue Bird 😉 to bad I can’t go skiing. Storm on Sunday/Monday I am hesitant to say its going to be a good snow producer for us here in southern New england but Northern New England has a very good likely hood of seeing some good snow. Need to see how it forms to see if its a good snow producer for us here in southern New England as well as if there is rain involved.

  25. Last, because I read through before reaching a place I could add a new post, but never, ever least….

    Thank you, TK, for today, yesterday and always. Your insight into the weather is amazing.

    1. I echo that. UNCANNY, I like to say.

      Uncanny:

      adjective
      1.
      having or seeming to have a supernatural or inexplicable basis; beyond the ordinary or normal; extraordinary:
      uncanny accuracy; an uncanny knack of foreseeing trouble.
      2.
      mysterious; arousing superstitious fear or dread; uncomfortably strange:
      Uncanny sounds filled the house.

  26. And If I may, I would like to thank SAK once again for sharing with us
    an endearing term for the type of storm system approaching us tonight:

    Saskatchewan Screamer

    Same kind of storm we call an “Alberta Clipper”, except the storm originates in
    the Province of Saskatchewan, instead of Alberta.

    If the system originates in Manitoba, then it is affectionately termed:

    Manitoba Mauler

    Pretty cool stuff!

    What we learn at WHW!!

  27. Others had mentioned this, but here is the very interesting NWS discussion re: Sunday/Monday

    Sunday Night into Monday…As challenging as Sunday is, this time
    period looks to be even more so with high stakes. Although there are
    some important differences among medium range models, a common theme
    is for a very potent upper level short wave trof to close off near
    or somewhere a little east of southern New England. Taking advantage
    of an impressive low level baroclinic zone, surface bombogenesis
    occurs in response to the forcing induced by the upper trof. There
    is some hint of rather extreme deepening with a tropopause fold with
    this system. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles support rapid
    deepening with some variability in the actual location. Depending
    upon the latitude that the upper system closes off and the
    associated surface system rapidly deepens, this could turn out
    to be a glancing blow or a very high impact event with heavy
    snow, damaging winds, and perhaps even some coastal flooding.
    Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that the upper level
    energy is still over the northern Pacific. That energy will
    likely become better sampled within 24 hours as it approaches
    the western North America radiosonde network. To the extent
    that the precipitation shield, possibly wrap around from the
    comma head, extends over at least a part of southern New
    England, the atmosphere should be cold enough or turn cold
    enough to support snow. Most at risk would be eastern MA
    including the Boston area.

      1. “Trend” looks to be further N and NE you are, the better, is snow is your wish.

        At this early stage, seems wide spread snow showers and a howling NNW wind Monday morning would be my first guess.

        1. Looking like a “near miss”, but there is more guidance to look at AND the energy has not yet come ashore on the Pacific.

  29. Just finished shoveling and surprisingly the snow was a bit crunchy on top and fluffy in the middle towards the bottom. I was expecting the opposite since temps started in the 30s. If that storm wasn’t as progressive as it was…WOW!

  30. Good morning, everyone!
    Thanks, TK! Another Brady-like, Super Bowl forecasting performance!
    GOAT!!!

    Snow day #2, pushing the last of school now to Tuesday, June 20.

    Someone posted this week that February 9 seems to be the jackpot of SNE snowstorms.
    With time on my hands this morning (I did start the weekend laundry), I looked up some the major early February snows…

    For Taunton (NWS~BOX) my hometown…(records since 1996):
    February 8-9, 2013 22.7
    February 7-9, 2015 14.0
    February 9, 2017 12.4
    February 2-3, 2015 11.2

    For Providence (Green Airport)
    February 6-7, 1978 28.6
    February 4, 1961 18.3
    February 8-9, 2013 18.0

    Boston
    February 6-7, 1978 27.1
    February 8-9, 2013 24.9
    February 7-9, 2015 23.1
    February 8-9, 1994 18.7

  31. I saw someone post late yesterday that we are entering into a period of developing blocking in the atmosphere. Might want to keep a close eye on the EURO for the Sunday/Monday system as historically it has performed very well when blocking is present.

  32. Thanks TK. Well done on the storm forecast! Really enjoyed everyone’s commentary yesterday as well.

    Moving right along… Tonight’s event looks pretty straightforward. 2-4″ region-wide, less at the South Coast. Mostly 2’s and 3’s with the 4’s mostly towards the MA/NH border. Sunday/Monday’s storm could be a real powerhouse, but I don’t think SNE gets in on the heavier snow from that one. That’ll be a northern New England blizzard, Maine especially. Still could be some SNE snow at the front and back ends of that system. Another threat late next week from an offshore storm. Early indications are too far east but we’ve seen a lot of storms trend closer this year. Temperatures up and down for the foreseeable future, I think TK has captured that well. A very active winter pattern.

    1. Yup, yesterday was a fun day. WHW had that storm covered very well.

      Thanks for your thoughts on the upcoming events.
      I concur with your thoughts on Sunday/Monday with the following
      caveat:

      1. The energy has not yet come ashore.
      2. We have not seen the 12Z Euro as of yet.

      We have seen stranger things happen, that’s for sure.

      Certainly will have to keep an eye on that one.

      Oh one more thing, if I may….

      I was looking at the 12KM NAM.

      That bomb starts to do a loop and move SE.

      If that is not modeled exactly right and given we still have 2 or 3 days for fine tuning, what if this thing blows up off shore moves NE and then instead of
      moving SE, decides to move SW?? With the closed off upper circulation, it
      is not totally out of the realm of possibility. No?

      Should be fun to watch this evolve. 😀

          1. 970 mb bomb. Not too shabby.

            Can’t wait to have a look at the Euro.
            I wonder if it is similar? Euro/UK? 😀

  33. Out and about ….. Our town did a great job plowing. Given the intensity of the snow, not much pavement showing.

    With that said, can feel that 9 or 10 degree solar elevation increase.

    1. Many did, most of the towns have changed to new liquid form of salting, as it is more calcium carbonate based which is less harmful to the watershed and more economically friendly.

    2. I have not been out as have uncharacteristic job of taking care of grandson but word is that roads in these parts are well done also.

      As a general statement, if you have a town FB page, perhaps remember to thank those who maintain our roads in storms. Or call even

      1. Sounds like a feel good safety rule. Most kids that go to school come from many miles away…guess they don’t count.

        1. WW you don’t know that beyond a mile they are bussed so to them it is the roads that matter???? Within a mile the kids walk so the sidewalks matter. Thats why I figure it is best to leave the decision to those who do know

  35. Maybe not where you are weather wiz but I can tell you in Boston the side roads were a mess. Sidewalks weren’t plowed out yet. I walked to train station and 3/4 of the time I was on the street. So imo right call for BPS. Now other towns very well might be a different story that others could chime in with their thoughts.

    1. My thought is that we trust the experts. I’d hate to have someone else telling me how to do my job so have a lot of empathy for those in public service. My opinion is it is never wrong to ere on the side of caution when children are involved.

    2. Well yeah I meant in my town specifically. A 2 hour delay where I live would have been more than enough. Now we face maybe no school Monday too? So 5 days off…

  36. Lurker here!

    I don’t have kids however I do live in South Boston and I knew even last night (while shoveling my car out and almost getting hit by another car) that cancelling today in town was smart. People may think that living in the city, most streets get plowed, etc but where I am at least, that’s not so much the case. Granted I live on a little one way street but as of 7:30am it was not plowed. And the secondary roads were not in very good shape either, barely one car can go down a two lane street. And don’t get me started on the sidewalks….

    The usual winter nuisances!

    1. Welcome Nerak! I totally agree with you. In fact Southie might be the absolute worst area of the city when it comes to snow removal. Of course there are so many narrow streets, that there is just no place to put the snow.

      I remember visiting my Brother-in-Law on 7th street after significant snow.
      There was no place to park. We had to sneak into a school parking lot
      (it was evening so no one was there) just to park some place.

      Happy you joined us.

    2. As a former Southie resident (I lived on Thomas Park for several years in the 80s) I can attest to the less than stellar job at clearing the streets and sidewalks in that neck of the woods.

  37. Been out further. Roads got better. When I first posted, I should have noted that areas where I had traveled were salt free zones due to near proximity to the marshes. Further away, rte 139 is in much better shape. I agree Vicki re : saying thanks on a town DPW Facebook page.

    1. I was remiss in not also thanking the school superintendent. It is times like this that I would not want to be in his shoes. I cannot help but think of the discussion here and elsewhere on Wednesday as to whether to keep the businesses open. Difficult call and always people who you will not please

  38. Wow, but I do seem to remember TK and SAK and JMA cautioning against the euro’s tendency to overamplify things. 970mb east of Boston.

    Guessing that’s still northeasternmost mass and a Maine bonanza, with frequent snow showers and howling wind Boston south.

    Even if the bulk of the snow misses, you’ll probably need an advisory for blowing snow with the wind coming Monday.

    2. Keep em coming JJ. I don’t care if there are 1 or 2 ahead of it, I am
      ALWAYS interested in what is down the road. 😀

  41. I just saw on twitter 11.2 inches for BDL on 12z EURO. Hopefully someone here can confirm that and post a map. If that is the case just needs that area to drop a tad further south.

    1. The Euro does a similar thing that the NAM does on Monday. It tracks up into the Gulf of Maine, then hits a road block and starts to head southeast. Just crushes Maine.

      1. The Monday situation could evolve into something memorable.
        I hope so… We shall see.

        If not, mid week seems to be pretty wild as well.

  44. Although the snow maps don’t show much for coastal areas, I find
    these 2 surface maps to be most intriguing. If we get enough influx of colder
    air and/or some reasonable dynamic cooling, then who knows……

    I find this situation to be quite fascinating…..

    http://imgur.com/a/WnvP4

    1. I don’t like that for Boston. 850 MB temps North of 32!!! Inland? COWABUNGA!!! BUT still destine to flip to snow even at the coast.

  47. Too much rain at the start for a major snow in SNE with a track that hugs the coast but if that tracks farther offshore it would be a big one for us! Plenty of time to track.

    Keep in mind the GFS doesn’t show this at all.

    1. It’s still a long way out there. Much could happen, from a slightly more off shore track, to the introduction of more dynamic cooling. Crap, it could even end
      up an inside runner.

      BUT, no matter, it has my attention.

      Wouldn’t it be something IF they all end up being significant snows
      for SNE? Now, that would be a Snow Blitz for sure.

  49. There has been brilliant sunshine with a few puffy clouds all day. More clouds moving in now. Glorious day. 27.1

    1. Note on that last map, a hint of our old friend, Mr. Norlun. 😀 😀 😀
      to introduce a possible additional wrinkle to the Monday Forecast.

  52. One can definitely tell that spring is approaching on a day like today. Ironic, perhaps, given how relatively cold it is and the fact that we had a snowstorm yesterday. But, the sunshine is brilliant and doing its best to melt the snow and ice in spite of the cold. If yesterday’s snow had fallen in December or January it would have been a different story. The sparrows in front of our building are chirping again, almost as if it’s spring. Their internal clock is already preparing their `minds’ for nest-building and family expansion. In a couple of weeks the red-winged blackbirds will begin returning, followed by all the other migrants who defy the executive orders.

    1. Indeed it does. 1-3 looks good for Boston area. perhaps 2-4, 3-5 for well inland?

      Right now, I am more interested in Sunday/Monday. 😀

    1. If you look closely, you can see my AcuRite unit mounted on the deck railing.
      I just didn’t have a way to mount it on the roof and there are TOO MANY
      trees around blocking the wind anyway. 😀

      1. Thanks. It’s an oldie but goodie. We finally had it painted
        this past October. I love the trees, but they get in the way
        of my weather. That building behind us is an atrocity!!!
        They took down 8-10 beautiful majestic trees to make way
        for that piece of crap addition behind us. Piss-poor shoddy construction I might add. The city of Boston
        was horrendous in how they allowed that to happen, despite
        my 1/2 dozen visits to City Hall and Inspectional services to
        attempt to stop it.

    3. Lovely photo. Lovely home. Details you no longer find.

      Funny you mention your acuRite. I was thinking about mine the afternoon as it still site in the box in the basement. My hope is to have a WHW get together here in spring. Maybe everyone could help me set it up 🙂 🙂 🙂

  56. Regarding Sunday/Monday, just got this email alert:
    Issued by the National Weather Service
    WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7AM EST SUN UNTIL 7PM EST MON …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING… THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS…NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. * HAZARD TYPES…HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF NEAR A FOOT. * TIMING…SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. * IMPACTS…HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITIES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. BE PREPARED TO MODIFY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP. &&

    1. Current timing is Sunday afternoon to early Monday. Remember even timing is never really easily nailed down until fairly close. A few hours here, a few hours there. Models are not good with this. There is a fair amount of educated guesswork on the part of the forecaster in this process. 🙂

  60. Please see Nerak’s comment at 1:05PM today, since I approved it over 2 hours later. It deserve audience. 🙂

    1. Thanks, TK! I feel like a VIP! lol I’ve been lurking since this page started. I hate snow with a passion but I understand why people dig it (or at least forecasting it and weather in general). Reading this blog and the comments helps me with my anxiety regarding disruptive weather (snow + city parking being my main concerns most of the time!).

      Keep up the great work!

      1. We all have our opinions and reasons for them. That should never be a cause for friction, only discussion. I am glad you find this blog useful and hope that continues. Feel free to chime in with comments or questions any time!

  61. I am only slightly surprised they posted the watch now versus later tonight, but not really in disagreement with the watch or where it is issued for.

    I do feel this low may bomb out JUST too far north to involve Boston in any big snow. But NH/ME and parts of VT may have to look out. Western and central MA, maybe.

    1. We all understand that, but do you think there is any chance that
      Boston “could” get involved. There is still a bit of time. 0%? 5% 10%
      25%????

      Thank you.

    1. its going to be interesting to see how far south and southeast the developing comma head can rotate the snow as the whole system slowly translates eastward.

        1. I’d side with that as well. I do think a slight backlash for the Boston area, maybe 1-3 or something like that. With the wind and even just light snow falling and falling temps Monday morning, I think there will be a small to moderate impact locally.

          1. I agree, we get a little something on the back end, but not enough. BUT, this is New England, so who knows.

          2. I think down here, we could rain Sunday night and depending how quick the temps fall along with that small backlash Monday morning, could be some changing road conditions.

    1. I just watched Eric’s forecast on BZ.

      The simulated radar seemed to indicate mostly snow for the lead system Sunday in Boston, which kind of surprised me. I got the idea the temps would be quite borderline so I don’t know if any accumulation could come of that in Boston.

      1. Will be interesting regardless.
        850 MB 0C line gets close to boston AND there will be
        boundary layer issues. Unless the precip is heavy enough, I fear
        there would be more rain than snow until such time as colder
        air works in. But perhaps there will be “just” enough residual cold
        left around??????

  65. I heard driving home bz 1030 big snow Monday Would be reserved for NH . They say 1-3 starting around dawn we shall see . Reporting at 7m to clear all of the roofs if not sooner . Quick two hr nap now off to Dinner. Tk what amount does my area see and what time do you think . What a storm !!!

      1. I’m sorry I’m so tired . I heard 1-3 for tonight / tomorrow. I also heard in regards to Monday’s system heavier snows reserved for NH.

  67. JP,

    I think this is the type of storm that will have a fair amount surprises. I think each run will trend with more snow for eastern ma

    1. That could be. That’s why I said stay tuned to future runs.

      All this has to do is intensify 25-50 miles more to the South and West.
      then BOOM! That’s not much when you consider we’re looking 2+ days out. 😀

    1. Here’s your answer, the best I can determine. Red Circle denotes the energy just coming ashore at 18Z today, which means it WILL be better sampled starting
      with tonights 0Z runs. So, if we are going to start to see changes, it should be
      with tonight’s runs. I did this by following the closed 500 MB from Monday back to the Pacific Coast. I could have screwed up, but you can get on a model site
      and follow it yourself.

      http://imgur.com/a/lP4nu

  70. These type of systems I am sure will cause a lot of headaches. It’s razor think on temp profiles that will have a huge impact either way. I tend to lean towards more rain than snow in our immediate region but not too far north will be a different story.

  71. John… Boston should get 1 or 2 inches from about 2AM to 10AM. Not fast-paced.

    Jury is out…way out…for the Sunday/Monday system.

  72. I would venture that we need to see what the clipper does tonight and maybe guidance will change after that if anything.

  76. ALERT !! 12z FRI (Midday) EUROPEAN Model goes WOOOF !!! UPDATE ON FEB 16 POSSIBLE MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE EAST COAST

    As many of you know I have been tracking this potential event since January 22 …over on the WxRisk/youtube channel. The thing is…. you can always see the big ones coming. For example last year’s blizzard on January 22 we started posting about on January 11 and 12.

    – the various of models such is the GFS and the Canadian often show the Southern System / southern LOW pressure area getting crushed or pushed out to sea without any development. Those two models do that because they overdue the strength of the northern jet stream and the depth of the cold air while the European model with its vastly superior physics package does not do that.

    As a result if you look at TODAYS GFS model or if were watch your evening weather person you will see a lot of uncertainty hemming and hawing about what is going to happen on February 16 on the East Coast.

      1. I know what you mean 🙂
        Makes for some fun reading though. I was watching for an Alert. I’m just upset and disappointed it wasn’t a 3 ALERT.

  77. Tonight’s saskatchewan screameris coming in in a hurry.
    Here is Albbany radar

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=ENX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&show

    Boston radar

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24779621&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    1. Looking at composite display, it is already snowing above Boston, but not making it to the ground as the dew point is 3.

  81. Not much change from 00z NAM for Sunday/Monday. Still too far anything major in Boston. But plenty of snow north and west.

  84. It seems mets will have their work cut out for them on Sunday/Monday storm. I don’t think it will be something they figure out until late tomorrow or early Sunday and that may throw a number of surprises. Now casting a lot on Sunday and Monday.

    1. I agree …. With that said, something is going to have to change slightly in the atmosphere to either have the 500mb low track a bit further south or slow its momentum in moving away from New England.

      While more snow would be great, I’m not sure it would be good if a 970mb low ends up 100 to 150 miles further southwest than currently progged. 🙂 🙂

      1. Kevin L tweet

        @hadikasrawi @RyanMaue no. I’m thinking it bombs out to the east and moves slowly, pulling the cold air south behind it.

        1. Quite true, if it’s near or slightly above 32F prior to the storm deepening, those increasing NNW winds should drop temperatures Monday.

  85. I know there is a ton of wiggle room here, but I have a strong feeling the 00z NAM has this figured out. Let’s see if that holds.

  86. Southeast Mass, rain and wind.
    Northeast Snow with rain along and east of i95 closer to Boston.
    Snow interior NOrthernern mass up int NH and Maine. Maine looks to get clobbered with a Blizzard. This thing will form to far north to give any large snowfall from happening in Southern New England.

  87. Slight stall or maybe even a loop on the 00z GFS.

    I don’t like the projected sfc wind gusts. 60 and a few 70 mph contours awfully close to the eastern mass coastline.

  88. I was just going to say that Tom, looks like a stall and a small loop. Some decent backlash snows as well. This reminds me of 2/14-2/15, 2015 just not nearly as cold.

    1. A storm of that strength and that position in mid February ….. Lucky it’s not super cold in eastern Canada because that’s a scenario that sometimes has provided New England with some of its coldest shots of air.

  89. Subtle shift southwestward of the center of the 500mb low ….

    At 12z, hr 78, it was projected to be over the southwest side of Nova Scotia.

    At 00z tonight, hr 66, it is projected to be halfway btwn Boston and the southwest side of Nova Scotia, a slight southwest shift.

    Impressive 507 dm height.

  92. Good evening or early good morning. Been away from my computer. Wife and I
    watched Manchester By The Sea. OUTSTANDING movie. Very deep and moving.

    It is snowing here nicely now (well not compared to Thursday, but is sure is pretty)

    I read the discussions re: Sunday/Monday

    I am Dying to see the Euro. Reason? Well the CMC clocks us pretty good and here
    is the snow map (it’s from Tropical tid-bits so it “could” include sleet)

    CMC 24 hour snowfall ending 18Z Monday

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017021100/gem_asnow24_neus_8.png

    And here is the 0Z UKMET

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_qc_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

    I predict that the Euro is similar to either of these. We shall see.
    I do NOT think we are out of the woods just yet. 😀

  95. Barry Burbank put up a Sunday-Monday snow map that I found a little surprising. He gives Boston 3-6″ which I thought was high. he did say it was a tough storm to forecast given the difficulty of predicting where and when it sets up.

      1. I’m guessing we get more snow today than Sunday / Monday it’s just a hunch. NH/ Maine & western areas different story.

  98. Looking at the 00z NAM/GFS/ECMWF GFS least robust NAM middle ECMWF most.

    GFS delivers about .75/NAM 1.o/ECMWF 1.25-1.5. Doesn’t all fall as snow in metro Boston, but I prefer more white than wet for most areas. Going to be a heavier snow to move than our most recent snow adventures. I am comfortable with the NAM QPF. Roughly half ends up snow.

  99. Barry Burbank just upped his Sunday-Monday totals. Boston: 4-8″. North and Northwest into NH: 8-16″. Maine: 16-24″

  100. Nam
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2017021106&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=
    Nam 3km (shows more on the 10-1 snow map)
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam3km&p=snku_acc&rh=2017021106&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=
    4km
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc&rh=2017021106&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=
    Canadian
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=snku_acc&rh=2017021100&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=
    GFS
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2017021100&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=
    Northern Massachusetts is the biggest question in terms of snowfall among the models.
    Not sure but I believe the EURO is somewhat similar to the Nam in terms of snowfall but thats just looking at the storm track and temperatures. Anyone have the snow map?

  104. I am right on the line where I am where the future radar shows the mix coming close to my area then as storm pulls away snow line collapses. If we stay all snow here I see no reason why I can’t get 6 plus inches.

  108. Here is the college of dupage 4km Nam snow map for tomorrw/monday (note it has about .4 from last night which was low) alos note the COD Kuchera maps tens to be higher than others. I post for dramatic effect. 😀

    http://imgur.com/a/aA6VX

      1. Yes.

        On this particular storm, the #1 focus for Marshfield is wind and that has increased too and I’m worried about its possible impact.

        Cape Cod Bay setting up for a big north side storm surge.

  110. FWIW, the NWS mentions THUNDER SNOW and 2-4 inch per hour snow rates.

    Low undergoing bombogenesis, transitioning
    towards a comma-head/trowaling within the rapid cyclogenesis with
    impressive 6-hour pressure falls of 2-4 mb / hr into Monday. The
    dynamic forces involved yielding strong H5-7 omega through the snow
    growth region with additional signals of negative theta-E lapse
    rates, undoubtedly will see 2-4″ snowfall rates with thundersnow
    as suggested by the SREF. As the system exits, strong cold air
    advection with steepening lapse rates as pressure rises are equal
    to the offshore pressure falls at 2-4 mb / hr. Definite signal
    of strong, damaging winds.

  111. Quick question. With the snowpack now in place will it have any effect on temp keeping it colder here during the storm?

    1. It can only help. The bigger help might be this small system that provided the overnight snow, once it passes by later today, it should back the winds at the low levels to NE bringing back in chillier air.

    1. Now that is better and actually doesn’t look too bad, EXCEPT one thing.
      They should then peel back the WSW to the 6 inch line and make the rest
      an advisory. They can’t have it both ways. (UNLESS there is ample wiggle room
      such that they are truly “Watching” the other areas for the possibilities of more snow)

      Oh well, I may have answered my own concern. We shall see. 😀

      Where I am, I am very close to the beginning of their 8 inch line.

      I think that here in JP we get more than the 6 inches. Will venture a guess this afternoon after I see ALL of the 12Z Guidance, including the Euro. 😀

  113. In the overview within the NWS Discussion, they pretty much lost me after “Snow lovers rejoice”. A bit too technical for me even though I have learned a lot here at WHW.

    1. Basically, the Reader’s Digest version: All of the teleconnections are in the correct positions/phases to support increased snow chances for SNE.
      That’s really all you needed to take away from that. 😀

  117. I just went out for a minute and measured. Only 2.25 inches here. Yup exactly
    2 1/4 inches on the ole ruler. 😀

  119. I think it might be worth watching Portland, ME and Portsmouth, NH temps today which should be cooler than ours. But, how much cooler ? Could be important to us tonight into tomorrow. Do they top out close to 30F or 15 to 20F ?

    Watching the 12z NAM run’s sfc temp map and it’s easy to see the low level cold air slowly working S and SW from Maine starting late afternoon (hr 9)

    1. The NAM is advertising some sort of light precipitation starting around
      midnight tonight. In fact precip lurks just off short from now until the next
      event gets going.

  120. Crazy, just crazy. 24 hrs ago this thing was expected to blow up well north and east with only an inch or 2 of backlash snow showers if that. Now, winter storm watches. Buckle up!

  122. I know the NWS mentioned and explained it and I can see why on that cold air drainage. Freezing drizzle/mist for a local part of the viewing area quite possible late to tonight, into tomorrow morning.

  123. 1.5″ of fresh snow this morning in Coventry, CT. Very surprised to see the watches expanded south into CT by NWS. I think the thermal profiles are going to be an issue here as well as across RI and SE MA

  126. Let’s back up a bit…
    24 hours ago there was a high degree of uncertainty about the Sunday/Monday system. There hasn’t been a drastic change in the forecast. It’s being fine-tuned. Watches being issued are very normal procedure. Remember what the purpose of a watch is.

    2. But Barry’s map man. If it said potential snowfall I’d understand, but it said expected which to me means almost certainty

        1. It’s probably over-doing it.

          He just changes “potential” to “expected” when we get to about 24 hours before an event.

  127. Hi everyone. Wow this has been a fun follow up to the Patriots win…no let down when weather makes a comeback as several said the last few days! BTW if you haven’t seen the full Sound fx video of the Super Bowl with everyone mic’d up it is worth looking for. Search “sound fx “super bowl LI”.

    Question: my son has an interview for a summer job in Boston tomorrow at 2:15. When will the big stuff hit Maine as he has to get back to Brunswick. I’m hoping late afternoon train won’t be too late?! Thanks. Such enjoyment from following everyone here. Enjoy the next few days…

  128. I’m watching the 500mb feature and while still intense, on this 12z run, it’s perhaps ever so slightly weaker (sharp) which perhaps explains the small corresponding southerly adjustment to the sfc low.

  129. I don’t know if we have some Ocean Effect setting up here or a little norlun type set up, but it is beginning to SNOW here again. Check it out:

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24780378&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    Genuine VBLOTW

    Verified by looking out the window!

  131. Well now, where did this come from and is it real or am I still sleeping??

    Daughter told me about Barry’s map. Apparently, it is being cited by many. I did not hear the wording but one person here mentioned he didn’t seem to be saying potential.

    A couple of inches here but I only eyed it. No place to measure 😉

  132. Barry’s map is really just Barry’s map. There isn’t anything magical in the wording, and the forecast may or may not be correct. Same with NWS. I can assure you the final outcome is not sitting on either of those maps right now.

  133. A sub 980 mb low, close to 970mb, stalling or maybe even moving SE a bit when it’s at full fury.

    I’m really concerned about the wind at the coast, less concerned inland but it will still be noticeable.

  134. The other thing I would bet money on is that most people will be or are already focusing on the TOP numbers in the ranges they are seeing. No different than most other times.

    1. I agree with you and Tom and thank you, Ace, as I have a tendency not to look really closely at anything that doesn’t come from here. 🙂

      As far as focusing on numbers, I am sure you are right, TK. Daughter was very clear when she told me about map that sutton is in the lesser area of the range…..yay for her. I have to sigh. If people cannot figure out a range and only focus on one number, that is the fault of the people who will of course eventually fault the meteorologist. I would also hope that people are smart enough to figure out that weather is fluid. I guess I expect to much of the masses eh? Somehow it seems they are too busy trying to point fingers to just use the good old common sense God gave them.

      My morning rant has now come to an end! BTW I do see the irony in it 🙂

  137. The only real difference on the NAM between 06z and 12z is that it forecast more back-lash, which, the NAM notoriously over-forecasts. So use caution there.

    Also a brief mini-loop in a rapidly intensifying low is common. It does not indicate a stalling system.

  138. Ok, I’m starting to get excited….it’s been snowing a steady light snow up here in NE ma for the last hour…everything including the roads are covered again after 1 3/4 inch overnight….drove up to plaistow for some tax free errands and same story here…can’t help but think back to December when we said if only it was February with the normal ocean temps….check back later

  139. The NWS expressing only moderate confidence at T minus 24 hours should be noted.

    Also, something that is very important to me is the orientation of a connecting trough between the intensifying low and an older low to the northwest. If the orientation of that is more SE-NW versus E-W in this area, the snowfall amounts will be limited.

    1. I hope its limited. This is killing me with everyone stuck at home. This is why I think canceling school on Friday was not smart. They could be our even more this week. How much did you get? Didn’t measure but we were past 3″ for sure. Snow was deep.

      1. I disagree about canceling school. I was out on the roads yesterday and they were a mess. I would not have wanted my kids on a bus with the roads the way they were. I had to do some re-arranging of schedules to accommodate them being home but well worth it in the name of safety for my kids.

        1. Well your parents and their parents somehow did it and lived. Kids deserve less coddling and more life experiences.

          1. WW…..I remember many snow days so we did not do it. The funny thing is that I consider one of the life experiences for kids is being home with their families on a snow day, shoveling, making hot chocolate, just enjoying being a kid, enjoying family and enjoying the world. Kid-dome ends far too quickly in our new world. I do, however, get somewhat confused when the same folks who want businesses to close for themselves or spouses seem to be the ones who want their kids in school. I truly believe I hoped for a snow day as much as my kids did — perhaps more.

            1. Well we don’t see eye to eye here. What else can I say. My parents have totally opposite stories from your own. Not into selling packaged “snow day” fantasies I guess.

                1. I also remember many snow days as a kid. And not sure wanting your kid to be safe equates to coddling. My kids have had their share of “life experiences”, trust me.

      2. Canceling school Friday was the right decision. I observed very few sidewalks done even as of Friday afternoon. Woburn has an issue with manpower and equipment at the moment.

        Curious though how it kills you having people at home. 🙂

        Come on down to DD this evening. I’m going to stop by there!

          1. Not sure yet, between 7 and 8 is my initial guess. I’m kitty-sitting on the hill. My friend is in FL on the trip I was originally supposed to go on…

  141. Tk, I know it’s early and we need to see how this next system plays out but any preliminary thoughts on the Wednesday/Thursday system?

  142. TK, to your comment about the orientation of the connecting trough: I’ve noticed that as well on the models, and that would definitely affect totals. The GFS has the more NW-SE tilt, right? And hence, less snow. To me that seems more reasonable than what some other guidance has. I feel like the GFS usually has a better handle on situations like this. I’m not too crazy about big snows south of the MA/NH border. Much different story likely to the north. I think maybe 4-6″ for greater Boston at this point. But there is wiggle room either way, especially for an increase.

    From my experience, wrap-around snow is rarely as impressive as modeled. In a big behemoth like this, it’s also possible this is the exception. I still think more of the snow for SNE comes early in the event, as the low is just starting to deepen.

    1. Yes. GFS is NW-SE. We’ll see if 12z continue that theme.

      To get serious wrap-around snow into the Boston area, we need that low to be NO further north than Boston’s latitude and preferably south of it.

    1. For Woburn in terms of precipitation, noonish Sunday to sometime Monday. I don’t know how many bouts of wrap-around snow we may get this far down, but I could see them making it this far south and west into afternoon, though not necessarily heavy. They may just end up being “flakes in the air” kind of episodes which is typical for an offshore bomb, moving away.

  144. Just reviewing comments before I head out for a bit.
    I reserve any judgement until I see the rest of the 12Z guidance.

    I appreciate all of the input here.

    I just have this sneaky feeling is all I will say for now.

    Until later. Might be able to bop in via mobile when I get a peek at GFS,

  145. Oh, one last thing. Best I can tell whatever little snow was falling has stopped here.
    AND, the temperature has dropped 2 degrees from 24 to 22. Not sure what the significance of that is if anything, but I would like to hope it ensures SNOW tomorrow and no rain. 😀

    1. Indeed it has dropped. Much colder than when I arrived at 2am this morning . I can tell you everything was extremely slick coming in even though I’m in a big truck . 2.5 to 3 is what I’m suspecting we got in this area of the city .

  146. From 9z to 18z on the latest GFS, the low level cold air signal nosing back into SE Mass is there. Now, I think the coastal front will eventually win back out at Logan for a time later tomorrow, but 20 to 30 miles inland, I’m not so sure. Better hope the precip stays as snow in the 128 to 495 belt, else there’s a chance for some rain to be falling into below 32F air.

  147. NEW POST!!!
    I did not put amounts in yet. Going to do that on a 2nd blog post later today.
    I am going out to move the 3-4 inches that fell overnight. FLUFF!

    Be back in a while.

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