Saturday Forecast

189 Comments

10:56AM

This will be the first of 2 blog entries between today and later tonight to better update for the evolving storm situation for Sunday and early Monday.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
The latest “event” is about done here as a general 1 to 3 inch snowfall occurred overnight and early this morning. Only some spotty very light snow remains, almost like snow-drizzle, or “snizzle” as it has been often termed, over eastern MA and southeastern NH as this is really a warm front trying to press through. It will do that during the day and we will see some breaks in the clouds and sun, but the greatest amount of this will be to the southwest and south of Boston. But the break will be short-lived. The next system, a stronger low, will approach from the west on Sunday. We do know that this system will intensify rapidly once it reaches the ocean Sunday night and Monday, and the critical part of the forecast, in terms of where a rain/snow line is and how much snow falls, is the track, orientation, and rate of deepening of this system. This will come down to almost an hour-by-hour thing as we go along, but this forecast will reflect that I currently feel a very sharp line will exist between not much snow and much more snow, somewhere in the I-95 belt. But again this is not a certainty and there is plenty of room for adjustment. Please keep that in mind. One thing we do know with a certainty is that powerful winds are going to occur especially Monday as the deepening storm starts to pull away via the Gulf of Maine to the waters south of Nova Scotia. Beyond this, look for a fair and cold Valentine’s Day Tuesday, and the next unsettled weather threat quickly arriving by Wednesday. This system will likely bring a threat of snow or snow showers and I am far from knowing its exact evolution. Revisiting this next update and again tomorrow.
TODAY: Clouds dominate. Partial sun develops Boston area south and southwest. Spotty very light snow north of Boston to southeastern NH through midday. Highs 28-35 north, 35-42 south. Wind light variable, mainly SE in northern areas and SW in southern areas.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 20-30 north to south. Wind light variable becoming NE.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Spotty very light snow or freezing drizzle near the MA/NH East Coast in the morning. Snow develops west to east midday and afternoon except mix/rain South Coast. Highs 30-40 north to south. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain/mix southeastern MA and southern RI, mix/snow elsewhere – details to be worked out. Steady or slightly rising temperatures. Wind NE 15-30 MPH, higher gusts especially coast.
MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of snow favoring eastern areas with heaviest most likely northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Significant snow accumulation for this event possible many areas but especially just north and west of Boston extending westward and northward from there. Will add numbers to prediction on next update. Temperatures falling to 20s. Wind NE to N 25-35 MPH gusts above 40 MPH interior and above 50 MPH coast.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 5-15. Highs 25-35.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 10-20. Highs 20-30.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
Snow showers possible to start the period then fair and cold weather dominating, moderating late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Pattern transition underway here but there may be another storm threat during this.

189 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    1. I think so, but at lower levels. As the low passes south of us tomorrow, before exploding east of us, I could see Boston, Quincy and certainly the south shore moderating again at some point, either at the sfc or aloft to switch back to rain.

      But, I wonder about the area btwn 495 and 128, if they for a time, get too mild above to snow, but stay just cold enough at the surface to remain below 32F.

      This will absolutely be nowcasting tomorrow.

  5. The 12z GFS looked like the low was a bit further south and east wouldn’t that mean more cold hangs on along the coast?

  7. The term “snizzle” was used all the time by Dr. Fred Ward back in the day. I would be curious if he actually invented the term. By the description TK gave above, it certainly makes sense. 🙂

  8. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz

    Following the famous blizzard, what else happened in the Boston area in February 1978?

    A. No more snow
    B. Another snow storm
    C. Flooding rains
    D. A solar eclipse

    Answer later today.

    4. It’s probably A, but that’s not completely true. It snowed a few times in March.

      They should have asked what never occurred in Boston in February 1978. The answer: Rain.

      1. A is the answer they are looking for, but is is incorrect. Boston reported flurries on February 18, 19, and 23 in 1978. Now, if they had worded it as no more “measurable” snow, they’d have been right.

  9. 12Z GFS not impressive for eastern MA for the sun/mon storm as well as the wed/thurs storm next week. About 6″ total for Boston between the two.

    1. Look at the nams.
      Also ukmet a good hit.
      RGEM not bsd.
      Waiting on euro now.
      Going to be close one way or the other.

      1. Yea the other models definitely deliver more. I was looking to see if the GFS would start to trend that way as well and so far that is not the case. I also say someone post on the Friday blog that the GFS is usually better in these situations. I respectfully disagree. Historically it really struggles in blocking situations.

  10. 12z models to me look like they’re moving towards the GFS. CMC made a pretty big shift. Always a little hard to tell on the UKMET graphics but the 12z run on the larger scale looked less favorable for Boston-area snow than the 0z run did to me. TK nailed it this morning with the connecting trough issue. We’ll see what the Euro says.

  11. Is this February going to be a mini-version of 2015? It is starting to be setting up that way. A colleague at work last night mentioned the the last time the Patriots won a Super Bowl, it snowed and snowed and snowed, etc….a correlation perhaps? 😉

      1. The snow will melt, but we’ll have the Lombardi trophy, championship banner and the legacy forever.

      2. It should be no contest. Suck it up on the snow, dude. 😛

        And come down for a coffee tonight! 😀

          1. I’m thinking closer to 8 now because my dinner will be near 7. I’m going to a fireworks display at 6PM.

  13. Thanks TK!

    I thought the same as WW – pats Super Bowl win or no snow would be a really tough call for me – especially after seeing you know who all cozy at dinner with the Donald last night in Florida.

    1. shivers………and not from the temperature!!

      I do understand the NFL is quite upset with Kraft’s comment about it being the sweetest victory………I’m loving it.

      1. Nope. No hack. Just looking at the reality of the situation.

        If the models didn’t SUCK beyond 3 days right now I’d be really worried about midweek too. I don’t have any real idea other than that may be a classic full phase setup.

  15. Ok ….Now I am really depressed. No football this weekend. I am truly going to have to get up to speed on the red sox. The game I know inside out, but I have no idea who the players are.

    1. Chris Sale, new pitcher. Ace of a staff kind of pitcher.

      Most everyone else is the same as last year and we’ll all have some getting used to without Big Papi.

      1. Thanks Tom. But when you say same as last year does that mean same as 1960s ….last time I was really into the sport 😉

        See how much work you have to do to bring me up to speed. Daunting task at best.

  16. That departing high is hanging in there ….. You can see a weak extension of it, in the isobars, nosing slightly southwestward into central New England on the hr 24 map of the 12z EURO.

  17. If you have the NFL Network, it’s sort of a New England Patriots tribute weekend. They are replaying all seven Super Bowls from the Belichick/Brady era in a marathon today and tomorrow. Super Bowl LI will be replayed tomorrow night at 8. There’s a sprinkling of specials on Belichick and Brady mixed in.

  18. Euro showing a 972mb low directly east of Boston at 48hrs. Don’t know what that means for precip but very strong!

  20. I don’t have access to snow maps, but looking at where it wraps the 850mb warm belt to, I’m going to guess the snow amounts have risen dramatically for easternmost mass due to wrap around. Again though, if this placement doesn’t verify …..

  21. It’s going to be pretty wild later tomorrow and Monday. Was just reading Barry’s blog and 25-50 miles will make a big difference in terms of snow, wind, rain etc.

  23. I know things are very much up in the air (no pun intended) with this next system but any ideas of when it will wind down on Monday? I’d hate to lose another entire day of work (live in Southie but I work on the S Shore, my boss isn’t very lenient with snow in the least).

    In other city news,I came home last night and someone had took my spot. And insult to injury they have VT plates (nothing against VT, they are parked in a resident only space. ) 🙁

    1. ** my auto full put my real name up above. My super hidden code of tying my name backwards has been revealed! Lol

  24. You notice every winter storm that has happened a certain someone on facebook did not mention it or talk about it and the ones he does disappear or become rain storm…….

  25. Thank you, TK.

    Take a look at the temperature difference between Washington DC and Boston. It’s been remarkable this past week. Today, a 30 (!) degree difference); yesterday a 25 degree difference and the day before idem ditto. No snow in DC or Baltimore this week, and barely any frost. It’s always amazed me how different the weather can be over a relatively short distance along the northeast corridor. During winters like this one, the cutoff point tends to be Philadelphia, with cities to Philly’s south having almost no winter to speak of.

  26. Karen, welcome to WHW! I think Monday’s going to be a snow day for many. The problem for you is that your place of work – South Shore – may only get a few inches of glop this time around, while Boston and points north and west get a lot more. This may mean that your boss will not issue a snow day, yet you’ll have some trouble commuting to and from work.

  27. Euro is indeed up on snow, Tom. In fact, with 10:1 ratios, it shows a foot for Boston, more just outside the city.

    Regarding ratios, this will be a case where they change throughout the event. 10:1 probably isn’t a bad number for the Boston area for the whole event totaled. Higher to the north. I’m looking forward to this one here in Plymouth, NH.

    1. 10.6 for Boston by my service. Drops off South with 6.6 for Weymouth.
      Shows all snow for Boston, but a period of rain/mix South of the City.
      Amounts only go up from Boston North. UNREAL!! This is an insane storm.

      I’ll post snow map in a moment.

      1. JP the even heavier snow is just to the north of Boston. Any wobble and watch out those snow totals could go right up!

    2. Thanks. Does one of your areas include south central MA? I’m getting a complex. In framingham it was north of south of pike but nothing about on the pike. Here….I’m feeling disenfranchised. Except by TK who includes us 🙂

  30. Regarding the UKMET, here is the accumulation map, qpf if you will in mm.

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_qc_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

    It is down some for the 0z, which was insane and unreal anyway. This looks real.

    thats 30-40 mm across most of Eastern MA.

    30mm = 1.18 inch
    40mm = 1.57 inch

    Just use 10:1 and it is 12-16 inches. If ratio is higher? Oh boy.
    Even if lower, still substantial snow.

    That northeast corner of MA is 50mm which is just under 2 inches. Imagine that one!

    1. As long as I am posting maps….

      12Z RGEM 10:1

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017021112/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

      12Z 3KM NAM Kuchera

      http://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam3km/2017021112/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png

      12Z 4KM NAM 10:1

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017021112/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png

      12Z 3Km NAM 10:1

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017021112/nam3km_asnow_neus_61.png

      Notice the drop off from Kuchera to 10:1

      Either the snow will be wet with low ratio OR there will be sleet in there??

      Something to consider. 😀

  31. For Thursday system, as of the 12Z run, The Euro only wants to give Boston
    5.2 inches of snow. At this time the bulk of the system is off shore.
    We shall see what happens.

      1. Let’s get through tomorrow/Monday and then we’ll see what
        we have. 😀

        That Euro run is intriguing to say the least.

        I wonder IF we get some real consensus with the 0Z runs?’
        I don’t expect too much with the few 18Z runs we get to see. but who knows????

        Boston should be at around 32 inches give or take a few tenths
        for the season. If they get just 6 with the next event it would be up to 38 and 5 with thursday would put them at 43 which is
        damn close to average. Of course, IF more snow falls, it will put them over the top and that is exactly what I want to see happen.

        If all goes just right, they could go over the top tomorrow/Monday. 😀

        1. More than welcome. Thought with the snow people would want to be reminded of what they guessed. Glad to be able to do it.

  37. Needless to say, the 2017 mini snow blitz is underway. Was more or less predicted several months ago by TK (and a few others – JMA), with timing uncertain (give or take a week or two). Question is, when Boston possibly hits 40 inches or higher for the season total later this week, will we be done for the season, or will late February and March bring us snows that would put us over the seasonal average?

    1. Now we’ll see what the 12KM, 4KM and 3Km cousins have to say, then next up the GFS and the RGEM and then it is wait for the 0Z runs. I won’t be home tonight! Damn. But I WILL have my mobile device for a few quick peeks.
      I’d feel better IF the GFS said, OH alright, I’ll joining the party.

      😀

      1. The cousins have it change to rain for a period right along the coast, not unlike what SAK described. Hope it is wrong.

  40. Coastal flood advisory up for next 2 day’s worth of afternoon tides.

    Minor flooding Sunday, minor to possibly moderate Monday.

  41. The Bruins game was entertaining. Enjoyed watching that. Always nice to beat Chad Kroeger’s favorite team. 😛

    1. Tk is the rain & wind going to be the biggest issue with this next potential storm threat for Boston right down through the south shore cape & islands. Northern area pickup some healthy snow numbers if high end is achieved.

      1. No. Snow and wind will be the main issue for Boston. The South Shore will have both. The Cape will have both but more rain for the main storm and snow at the end.

        1. Boston is sitting on that line . Ok what do you see Boston getting and timing . reporting back in at 7 tonight . My son is thinking no school pembroke Monday does he have hope .

  42. I don’t know if this is encouraging for us but Winter Storm Warnings up for Berkshire County and Litchfield County (CT).

  43. TK – Just curious and I hope that I didn’t ask this previously but did Dr. Fred Ward come up with the term “snizzle”? To the best of my knowledge he was the only tv met who used it and I don’t recall even Harvey who later took over on evenings on Ch. 7 used it either.

    1. I’m not sure who actually came up with it, but I’m pretty sure no matter who you ask, Todd Gross will take the credit. 😉

  44. TK…do you know of anyone in our area that does snow removal (driveway)? Can’t use a plow so this would be snowblowing. Thanks.

      1. Well a plow would be hard…not against it but my driveway slopes downward (walk away from any house that has this feature ha). I have a rock wall around the driveway so if you plowed down the driveway there is no where to put the snow as it will just build up against the rock wall. The way my garage is placed, if the rock wall is blocked I can’t get the cars in or out…it’s a catch 22. Not sure if a plow can pull the snow backward toward the street?

            1. Son in law has one. His eight year old can drive it. Sadly won’t help you. I think the only house criteria Mac was adamant about was that it not be downhill.

              1. I hate my house and not liking where you live is the worst. Everyday is a reminder of what a mistake it was. Tried selling last year and got offers but the damn development going behind my house scares people off. The driveway issue is just the tip of the iceberg of issues.

            2. Just call one of your local landscape guys that has a good reputation. That’s your best bet getting that piece . Once you’ve found Someone and you like both the service & price you are good my friend .

              1. I know a Landscape guy with a bobcat. He does work for me around the house and he also does snow removal.

                Ronaldo D Deoliveira
                Valentini Landscape Construction Inc
                10 Albano St
                Roslindale, MA 02131
                (617) 512-7256

                I have no clue IF you would go that far.

    2. I’d have to ask around. My friend that works at DD knows a lot of them I think but she’s in Florida right now. 😉

    1. WOW!! thanks. My house is in the 12-16 color. 😀 😀 😀
      Of course nearing the 12 inch contour. According to this map, I should expect
      another Foot. he he he

      I guess they are weighting the Euro fairly highly? no?

      1. Pretty healthy one at that. Let’s assume that it’s wrong about the rain, this would be a HUGE Storm. 😀

  50. Nws service has my area (Reading/woburn area) at 12 to 18 inches. Tk do you think we will even reach the bottom of those totals of at least a foot? It seems a bit high.

    1. I have NEVER been more pissed and disappointed in a model run in my
      life. I just have to remember that it is the 18Z piece of shit run. 😀

        1. I don’t believe it is correct either, but around here one
          never knows. Growing up I can’t tell you how many times
          I didn’t do my homework because they were forecasting a big snow storm, only to wake up to pouring rain. 😀 😀 😀

      2. It is different, but in a way, good to have a dissenting voice.

        To get the higher amounts, the front end has to be as productive or maybe even more so than the backlash. If it’s half as productive, then that will underperform the new predicted amounts.

        Blending together everything we’ve seen today wants to make me take off a general 3 – 4 inches, especially off the very high numbers and cut the lower numbers providence westbound in half. Providence eastbound is tough because it could make it into the wraparound Monday. But even there, maybe deduct 1 or 2 inches.

        1. It may be wishful thinking, but I cam in Camp Euro on this one. 😀
          Ok ok ok, I WANT to be in Camp Euro. 😀
          I have no clue which way it will go.

        1. Dear John….may I call you John…are you familiar with the phrase don’t pour salt in a wound.

          That said….are you awake? And home? Dinner out would be on my agenda if I were you. But then any excuse to eat out works for me.

          1. Vicki I’m only playing with him . I wish I was out heading back in for 7pm for garage roof job .was called in at 1am thus morning and worked till the afternoon.

            1. I know and I’m playing with you. Long hours John. Will say say I said to SAK. Please be careful driving. If you want my phone, you can call if you are sleepy. I sincerely mean that. Son went off road not too long ago falling asleep after a triple shift. He was only feet from ending in sudbury River. Will send you number on FB I know you can call home but I can sing and that will def keep you awake 🙂

  52. I am now wondering if, for Boston it is going to come down to where to put all the snow, not to mention the midweek system as well…Remember 2015!

    My grandfather told me how back in the day, snow was loaded onto dump trucks and plopped into Boston Harbor.

  54. Don’t discount the GFS. Too warm? Probably. Right general idea? Possibly. Answer almost surely lies between GFS and Euro, but I think a little closer to the former.

  55. Check out the hr 30 and hr 33 ….. 925 mb temp projection and that will help somewhat to explain why the GFS sends the rain/snow line that far to the north and west.

    1. Doesn’t mean it is correct. Euro 925 temps remain well below freezing Form just South of Boston Northward. The mix line occurs South of boston for the Euro.

      We’ll know soon enough.

      1. Oh I agree. I was just trying to find a reason, that looks way too mild.

        I agree with weatherwx, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

  56. Here’s the problem I see for the next storm: Tomorrow’s lack of cold air pouring in from the north and west. The cold air will get here, but not until early Monday when the backlash snows will likely occur. Tomorrow from the coastline out to 495 will be right on the boundary, with surface temperatures above freezing at the immediate coastline and marginal from 95 to 495. This does not mean there won’t be a lot of snow between 95 and 495. I think there will be Sunday night into Monday. But, inside 95 I do think we’re going to be battling with mixed precipitation and thermal profile issues that will hold down amounts considerably: Under 6 inches in Boston when all is said and done, and almost all of that will be on Monday. I think the previous jackpot zone – South Shore – will get very little snow (<3 inches) as the backlash snows on Monday may not make it as far as Plymouth country.

  58. Enjoying watching the golf from Pebble Beach today. To me its the top course in America.
    Looking at the latest data it is possible by the time this storm is over I could have a foot and half or little more in the ground in my area. If that other storm system approaches later next week all I could say is WOW and all in a one week span.

  59. I don’t know why everyone’s focusing on the gfs, it never showed much in the way of snow for sne….this close, I’d prefer the short range high resolution models anyways.

  60. The meteorologist at NBC 30 in CT not buying the GFS. They upped slightly the now from my area from 3-6 now to 4-8.

  61. Channel 7 put up a snow map showing 8-12″ in Boston area, saying that Boston might be 8-9″ and areas west with higher amounts. It is tricky!

  62. Some of our meteorologists here have been saying the same thing Longshot which you said which is this is a tricky forecast and slight shift either direction could make a big difference. The fact that Upton, NY put all of southern CT under a winter weather advisory tells me there leaning toward the colder solution. This morning no advisory.

  63. Been busy… I’m going to update with snow totals.

    WeatherWiz… You going down to DD? I’ll be there around 8:30.

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