Sunday Forecast

327 Comments

12:18PM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
The latest winter storm is upon us, and we’ll get right to it. There is pretty much no change to how I described the situation evolving yesterday. Low pressure moves just south of New England and then rapidly intensifies in the waters just to the east before moving away. We have precipitation today with a rain/snow line which will waver around, stretching from near Boston to RI, keeping southeastern MA including Cape Cod in rain for the bulk of the main part of the storm. A southeastward movement of this line in response to advancing cold air as the storm develops offshore will take place. And the wild card continues to be the amount of back-lash snow behind the storm Monday. The greatest risk of seeing significant snow from this continues to be in areas of northeastern MA to southeastern NH with the Boston area more on the edge. The strong winds will occur and will be most powerful near the east coastal areas including Cape Cod (see below for details on winds and snow accumulations). We will discuss the term “blizzard” in the comments below. Behind this, we’re still looking at a dry and chilly Valentine’s Day Tuesday. The midweek storm threat looks to me like a fairly minor event in comparison to the current one, with a progressive system coming through with snow or snow showers early Wednesday. I’m not totally confident on this yet and will re-evaluate this as we go forward. Looks like dry and colder weather by Thursday if this scenario plays out.
THIS AFTERNOON: Snow and rain, with the line between then from near or just south of Boston to southern RI, possibly moving a little to the northwest. Temperatures generally steady from the 20s northwest of Boston to the 30s to the southeast. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH interior and 10-20 MPH coast but increasing late in the day.
TONIGHT: Storm continues with snow northwest, rain southeast, and the rain/snow line slowly making its way southeastward, lastly crossing Cape Cod by around dawn. Temperatures steady 20s northwest and 30s southeast evening, falling slowly overnight. Wind E to NE in southern areas, NE to N in northern areas, increasing to 15-25 MPH but gusts over 40 MPH near the coast and over 50 MPH Cape Cod area by morning.
MONDAY: Snow morning and midday will be steadiest and heaviest in eastern MA (favoring northeastern MA) and southeastern NH. Snow exits by afternoon, lastly on Cape Cod. Overcast may thin with sun trying to come out by later in the day. Blowing snow reducing visibility at times. Total storm accumulation for snow 1-3 inches Cape Cod, 2-4 inches southern portion of South Shore to southern RI, 4-8 inches from Providence RI area up to Boston, 6-10 inches northwestern RI through south central MA up to Boston’s immediate western and northern suburbs, 8-12 inches north central MA and southwestern NH, 10-15 inches Merrimack Valley to northeastern MA and southeastern NH with a slight risk of a few spotty above 15-inch amounts near Cape Ann MA to the NH Seacoast. Temperatures fall slowly to upper 10s northwest of Boston and 20s to the southeast. Wind N to NW 25-35 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH interior, 50-65 MPH eastern coastal areas, with an isolated gust above 65 MPH possible Cape Cod.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 10-16 central MA and southwestern NH, 16-22 elsewhere. Wind NW diminishing to 10-20 MPH with lingering higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow/mix possible morning. Partly sunny afternoon with a chance of snow showers. Lows 15-22. Highs 30-38.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 10-18. Highs 25-32.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Weather pattern quiets down with a cold start then some moderation.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
Unsettled weather returns during this period with a couple rain/snow threats.

327 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  4. Thank you TK. Well there you have it.
    Now let’s see what we get.

    Logan reporting mix of rain and snow as of Noon.

    That doesn’t generally accumulate, so Boston is LOSING OUT on accumulation
    already.

    Still snowing and 30 here. WIll be watching very carefully all day.

    Places that Rain today, may end up with virtually Nothing, unless the backlash
    really materializes.

  5. Here is the latest radar, clearly depicting the Rain areas. Note, the mix extends a tad
    too far west as it shows my area in pink, when it is ALL snow here. 😀

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.3391304347826087&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=385.2564102564104&centery=346.1538461538462&transx=-14.74358974358961&transy=106.15384615384619&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24782005&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  6. Close to or above freezing in Back Bay. Snow has transitioned to a mix. Some melting is occurring. I’m not seeing much accumulation from this first batch. Perhaps the colder air will be dragged in at a certain point this evening with the wind shift, but I think we’ll have to first endure some rain and temps above freezing before colder air drains in. I can’t imagine this part of Boston getting much accumulation until quite late tonight and early tomorrow.

  9. Good piece of advice for that Thursday system from CT Weather. Hopefully it pans out and we get 4 snow events in week span.
    I would not take my eyes off of the Thursday threat. As of late, models not picking up on threats until a few days out

  10. The tweet I forgot to mention is the last sentence that starts out with I would not take my eyes off of the Thursday threat.

  12. As the heavier precip approaches, good luck to any area that maintains wet snow at a temp of say 30 – 34F. Keep half an eye to the trees. From experience down here, I have found the 5 inch accumulation mark, when it’s heavy and sticks to the trees usually starts to affect the very small branches. And hopefully the wind remains light.

    Off to tutor. 🙂 🙂

  13. Snow has been coming down pretty good the past few hours here in northern Ct. Up to 25 degrees and closing in on 2 inches already. I am impressed with the intensity. Hopefully we can minimize any period of mixing.

  14. I am hoping for the same Mark when it comes to that mixing. Looking boarder to boarder in CT a lot of areas with moderate snow right now. I believe that 4-8 inch forecast will work out if we continue to the snow at this intensity and the mixing holds off for a while longer.

  16. Temp in Boston back up to 35 with mix rain/snow. I find it interesting that Providence has steady snow with the rain/snow line well to the east of there.

    1. My home town. My mom lived there her entire life. A good part of the trees at Payson Park are planted in her memory. I lived on corner or Oakley and Cushing. If you have been lurking, you know I love memories. Welcome in Belmont

        1. I know right where that is. We lived on frost rd for a while. I love the town. It has changed a lot. My guess is your family and mine knee or knew of one another. My mom was active in politics and my dad was dispatcher and EMT at BPD nights

                1. I believe Chris Graduated in 71. I was 67 and a senior when high school burned. Chris wss first year in new school

      2. I lived on Long Ave. just up from Common St.
        You looked at the Reservoir. I rode bikes there all day long.

        2. Why did I fewl you and I had some connection. So odd.

          I dated a John C who lived corner of Long and Goden. The house my grandfather built for his young family and that my mom always regretted selling is 33 Hillcrest.

          I loved the resi. Not sure of our age difference so maybe didn’t see you riding your bike

          Anyone who knows me on here understands I have a deep love for Belmont. This makes my day

  20. The reason I am backing off the midweek threat is based on inference of conditions based on the current system with a little help from the NAM.

        1. Partially. I also think there will be a complete phasing of the 2 jet streams …. several hundred miles too late.

  21. Up to 34 here, BUT still ALL SNOW.

    Snow has been on the light side, but appears to be picking up a tad now.

    Will be monitoring closely.

    Oh Euro has backed off some more.
    Now has Boston (logan) at 5.5 inches for this event. Has a lot of mixed precipitation

    1. Hence my previous adjustment to 4-8 for Boston. Euro does OK right in the event, but NOT before it. We see this over and over yet the general public still gets all weather porno on the Euro numbers. I’ll never understand that. 😛

    1. Given that it doesn’t budge at all in 50 minutes’ loop time, I don’t think it’s representative at all.

  23. Weather Underground’s p-type on radar is NOT reliable right now. Don’t even bother with it. Rely on surface observations. Tried and true.

    1. Just went over to mostly all snow here in Hingham in the last 30 minutes. Temp dropped from 36 to 34.

  26. Dry slot approaching fast from the west. I think that’s why models are showing less snow rather than because of mixing. When is this storm supposed to intensify and form?
    Also tk what do you think our area gets? Reading/woburn

  28. Right at the beach now, 70% rain, 30% wet snow flakes.

    I bet if I drove to Rt 3, it would be nearly all snow.

  29. Back to all snow and fairly heavy in Back Bay (looks like a March storm given the size of the flakes), but marginal temps (hovering near freezing) have kept it from accumulating much. Another factor is that we’re once again having a daytime storm. I believe that most snow events this winter have occurred during the daytime. I realize that there will be some snow overnight tonight, and of course the Saskatchewan screamer produced some overnight snow Friday into Saturday.

    1. Also success with fixing the snowblower. Followed the guy on You Tube exactly and it worked and took just about 10 mins. Was able to do a lot of cleanup I missed out on Thursday when I couldnt get it going. What did we do 20 plus years ago without Google and You Tube????

  37. Down to 33 here in JP and continues to snow. NEVER been any rain mixed at all.

    Snowing moderately, but not heavy. It is accumulating everywhere, including
    pavements.

    1. Still a shot you never do mix. That’s always been possible. We have to watch one more push north of the R/S line this evening before it goes south for good.

      1. Yup, I understood that. Many models keep it just South of here, while some have it just get in here. IF it mixes or flips, I suspect it would be relatively short-lived, hope so anyway.

    1. Pretty much nailed by TK yesterday. He said it could mix or rain at the airport but remain snow in the Boston Neighborhoods. Amazing, he is.

    2. Pretty much as expected. It’s surrounded on 3 sides by water. So that makes total sense. Micro-scale meteorology at work. Something that models will never help with, and only meteorological experience can teach someone.

    3. What Logan has is what I’m seeing. Some rain, lots of large wet snow flakes, it’s raw, yuck ……

      How are your trees looking, if you have any ?

      1. Tom, if you are addressing me here in JP, all is well at the moment. Only about an inch or so on the trees. They were
        pretty much snow free before this event started. Now there has been some wind and the drier stuff from earlier pretty much blew off. Only the wet stuff sticking now. 😀

        1. I was ….. Thanks and hope what’s on the trees stays at a minimum for you and everyone else in the wet snow areas.

  39. I don’t believe the rain snow line pushes further west than within a few miles of the coast line. This is predominantly a snow event with the exception of the immediate coast line, southeastern coastal MA, the south coast and the cape.

  41. Heavy snow in Natick–Route 9 was wet pavement for much of the morning–walked into he mall at 1:15–walked out at 2:00 and Route 9 was snow covered.

  42. The intensity of the snow will help to make sure it remains mostly snow. Look for a quick shut off this evening from the approaching dry slot. Much of the accumulating snow icccurs today into this evening. I don’t think backlash snows make it in here with the exception of Cape Ann, NH and Maine.

  43. SREF Sensemble Plumes Mean for Boston: 6.41 inches.

    Sounds reasonable for Logan, which would make the Neighborhoods that are currently snow, what 8 or 9 inches or so.

  46. Not buying that snow does not become light if not completely shut off. If it snows all night into tomorrow morning, double digit snows occur region wide where it remains all snow.

      1. yup

        Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
        (KBOS) 42.36056N 71.01056W

        Last Updated: Feb 12 2017, 2:54 pm EST
        Sun, 12 Feb 2017 14:54:00 -0500
        Weather: Snow Fog and Breezy
        Temperature: 33.0 °F (0.6 °C)
        Dewpoint: 32.0 °F (0.0 °C)
        Relative Humidity: 96 %
        Wind: East at 20.7 MPH (18 KT)
        Wind Chill: 21 F (-6 C)
        Visibility: 0.50 miles
        MSL Pressure: 1012.1 mb
        Altimeter: 29.89 in Hg

  50. Just did a minor shovel and moved a car. Only about 2″ here in Newton — I think because the snow is so dense. The kind with water at the base. Remarkably heavy, even for a guy like me 🙂

  51. People keep thinking this is a repeat of Thursday.
    Umm, compare the snowfall rates. It is not.

  52. I believe it’s remained all snow in Brookline today, though with varying degrees of wetness. We have probably 1.5″ snow here but it’s very compact and waterlogged. I was just outside and grabbed a handful of snow and squeezed — the packed snow in my hand turned translucent.

    Just got back from venturing into Boston for a couple of hours; it was heavy, wet snow in Back Bay. Roads everywhere are greasy/slushy at best, snow-packed at worst. Trees and wires are coated in thick white paste. Messy, messy weather.

    Should be an interesting night!

  54. TK, great point on the difference in type of storm. Thursday was a `cold’ storm with very fine flakes and a high ratio. This one is a `milder’ storm with mostly large flakes or other stuff like sleet and rain mixing in. Back Bay has mostly seen snow in the past few hours, however, I was out and about just now and there’s some sleet mixed in. It appears that when the precipitation lightens the mix takes over. Perhaps a column effect in the sense that the heavier the precipitation the colder the column therefore the change to all snow? I don’t know, I’m just parroting what I’ve read on this blog.

    1. Thursday was also a system that was rapidly deepening SOUTH of New England and already had banding in place.

      This system has a wide swath of moderate snow, and yes it is mostly moderate, not heavy (people need to check visibility and understand what heavy snow actually is defined as). The heavy banding will take place largely later on when the low starts to bomb out to the east. Yes there will be pockets of heavy before that but not 3-5 inch per hour snowfall rates.

  55. Are we still expecting the strong winds tomorrow? Only a couple inches here so far but it is already weighing down the trees in my yard, and there are a lot of them.

  56. Snow has pretty much tapered off to light sleet here in Coventry, CT after about 3.5″ of accumulation. Temp sitting at 27. Huge dry slot approaching from the west so I think that’s pretty much all she wrote for us. Unless the radar starts filling in again later, we have perhaps a few more hours left of nuisance snow and sleet. Intensity was impressive for awhile but certainly did not met WSW criteria here.

    1. Here in Enfield, CT, 2 mi south of the state line, the temp is 25 degrees, snowing very lightly with just 3″ of snow on the ground.

  57. Live from Boston seems too be a bit lighter now though it goes back and forth . Nice little hit so far we will she how it goes throughout the evening .

  58. The bottom line is that temps are just too marginal (33) for any quick accumulations like Thursday’s fluff. Not nearly cold enough and never will be even late tonight/early morning. Boston will be lucky to get 5 or 6″ at most.

    1. I’ll take it man . I’ve logged some insane / crazy hrs since 4:00 am Thursday I hardly know what day it is.

  59. 12z Euro was close to a phase for Thursday but too little too late. That northern stream energy is diving straight down from Hudsons Bay in almost a SSE direction. Looks like there’s little chance that can phase in time for us unless it dives down further west and can interact with the southern stream sooner.

    Regardless what happens Thursday, looks like a decent warmup next week and then perhaps a return to a more favorable pattern after that if you look at the end of the GFS and Euro runs? Obviously hard to say with much certainty the way the models have been behaving in the long range. But even if today’s storm is it for awhile, I don’t think we are done with some decent snow chances by any means.

  60. 2.75″ in Sharon so far. Perfect snowball and snowman snow. Still snowing moderately. Re: dry slot. I see it on radar but it hasn’t been making it eastward.

    1. If the 18z NAM has the backlash accurate, then the 4 to 6am time period tomorrow morning gives Boston and Marshfield its best rotating band with lighter snows for a few hours afterward.

  62. I am no expert but dry slot is approaching quick judging by radar. If we don’t get any backlash snow this storm has a potential to be a big bust. I was hoping to see the movement of the snow go more from sw to ne then tilt back, but it’s just moving quick from West to east. Maybe it will do that later when the low forms deeper

  65. This is the text forecast from the nws service for my are (Reading)
    This Afternoon
    Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. East wind around 13 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
    Tonight
    Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 25. East wind 9 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
    Monday
    Snow, mainly before 2pm. High near 29. Blustery, with a northwest wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

    That’s 14-25 inches of snow if you add them all up, I am not even sure we will even get the minimum amount of 14, or even a foot. Why the hight numbers? Nws is not at their best for this storm

    1. Roads are slick over here. Almost had a spin out when driving my stepdaughter to work. The telephone pole came awfully close to my car as I slid from my side of the road to the other. Ugh!

        1. Had my 11 year old with and he said he thinks his heart skipped a few beats. Now I am off to work at the bowling alley in Kingston. Would love it if they would close early!

  68. Interesting tale of two storms. And in both the difference location makes. It has been snowing here since 8:00 am. We have maybe 3 inches. Thursday sutton had three inches by 10:00 am and I believe it began snowing later. Then other places not all that far from here seemed to not receive three inches until into the afternoon.

    Today, I’m hearing many say they have large flakes and wet snow. The snow we have has been fine and more on the dry side. It is all so fascinating.

    1. Intensity has much to do with it. Once eastern mass gets in the slot over the next couple hours, many locations go over to a very light mix.

  70. Still snowing in Newton at a moderate rate. There have been some short periods of light or no snow. It is going to get dark so I think I’ll make one pass at shoveling now.

    I feel like the Super Bowl should be on, but watching Pebble Beach is OK too.

  71. Probably won’t be awake, but I’d like to watch the radar and see when the precip starts to rotate south and southeastward as the 500 mb feature passes overhead and then offshore.

  72. Based on current radar, the rain/snow line is all the way down just past the Canal. Dry slot or not, I just hope the line stays away from Boston for good.

  76. Maybe 3 inches here. Looks like it’s about to stop. I don’t see how a lot of these forecasted amounts even come close. We’ll see.

    2. Dry slotting over most of eastern MA in the 6PM hour though some areas will still have pockets of moderate.

      Backlash is underway pre-dawn.

    1. I sure would hope so. perhaps the WSW should come down with them.
      so far this is a routine advisory level event.

      1. Looks like it. They have already canceled school here and there out this way. Unless we get some more heavy stuff over night, I just don’t see this as a big deal.

        1. Given current obs, they should. I have 3″ so I need at least another 3″ to reach warning criteria (5″ to reach NWS forecast on the low end). If everything shuts down shortly and/or mixes and we don’t get the backlash, cancel it and onto the next one

  79. I’m under a good band right now. Nice to see after getting less snow than surroundings Thursday. But perhaps I shouldn’t celebrate too quick because it looks like snow will come to an abrupt halt soon…

    2. very light or pause in snow with lack or lower numbers than surrounding areas. usually associated with strong storms

      1. No WAY!!

        Boston’s grand total will be lucky to be 5 or 6 inches, in fact
        it could end up 4 inches at the lower end of the TK/SAK range. 😀

  83. Boston schools canceled tomorrow, parking ban goes into effect at 8pm.

    Seems to be back to sleeting for the moment. Looks like we have an inch or so of slushy snow, I can still see the pavement of the road in front of my house.

    That concludes my very scientific 5pm weather report from south boston.

  84. Had a strong feeling this would under-perform for SNE, and still do. It’s not over yet, but everything is playing out about how I expected. Always gotta weigh the limiting factors first. In a storm like this, there are several. Still seeing no indications of an impressive backlash to come.

    1. It’s under-performing if you go by NWS’s #’s, that is before they finally adjusted them DOWN, smartly.

      1. Their numbers were definitely much too high. Over-reliance on the Euro?

        Looking through the reports for most of east-central MA, it looks like a general 3-6″ in those areas with the dry slot moving in. A little more in the next few hours. I can’t imagine most places outside of Essex County and parts of the immediate east coastline getting much if any backlash snows. I think 4-8″ totals will be common for most of the region. 8″+ mostly reserved for the Merrimack Valley, northeast MA, and of course into NH and ME.

  85. even though its not as heavy please go on out there on the roads and tell me its not bad… Everything snow covered vis half mile and less Boston to billerica

    1. That’s the thing. Too many people focus on snow amounts. Amounts amounts amounts. It’s about CURRENT CONDITIONS when it comes to travel.

      1. Kids who were out and about said ok to drive but had to be cautious. Mail carrier said it was slick this am when she was here.

        1. Son, who does not consider driving in snow a big deal any more than his mom did when younger, said his trip to RI south coast was slow and steady. Translation …..roads are not great but certainly passable.

          1. Exactly. It isn’t me I don’t trust. It is the other guy. Plus too many want to take licenses away from older folks. I don’t go out but then I’m happy as a clam here. Just started the grill. Ribs have been in oven for several hours. Now to grill. That is my idea of getting out 🙂

      1. Yes. I have mentioned the marginal temps near the city, the nearby mix/change line at times during the storm, a disorganized dry slot that would cut back on precipitation intensity, and the unknown impact of the backlash part of the storm.

        The educated guess was then made that the backlash would be tighter to the storm and more impactful in northeastern MA northward, so I took Boston from 6-10 and dropped them to 4-8.

  87. So how long can we expect it to snow tonight? It would be great if we could get a full school day in North Reading tomorrow. Guessing between 3-4 inches here so far and temperature has been steady at 33.

      1. Was just coming to post. I am a member of the school committee and had not checked message from the superintendent! That will teach me.

    2. Given every city/town except Reading/North Reading have cancelled, they are not too far behind. 😉

      Final flakes should be about noon tomorrow.

      1. TK what do you think we will get in total? Shoveled a bit and it looked like 3, maybe 4″…heavier stuff.

  88. 4.5 inches of heavy wet snow on groveland…has been 32 since it started around 12:30….snowing at a really good clip right now

  89. How many times now have the NWS totals this season been adjusted mid storm to match a more reasonable consensus of snowfall forecast amounts? 3? 4? 5?

    I’m a little perplexed as to why this keeps happening.

  90. Still snowing here in JP. Temp 33.

    I haven’t been out since much earlier. I estimate a whopping 2 1/2 inches, perhaps 3
    on a stretch. 😀

  91. Odd, I looked outside the window at about 3:30 and we had about 2″ on the ground. 2 hours later, all of which has been spent in a moderate snow band, and we have 3″, but there are holes all over the snowpack. I didn’t notice it switch to sleet, but I guess it had to have done so in order for this to happen. As for schools, it looks like Wilmington is not going to cancel at least for now.

  92. It’s a run-of-the-mill storm. This said, there’s a lot of glop on the Boston city streets, large and small. Not easy to move around by foot or car, so I do understand some of the cancellations. It’s not about the amount of snow. It’s about the state of the roads and sidewalks, in part because of the two previous storms as the snow banks have gotten pretty impressive. As the glop ices over tonight the road and sidewalk conditions will get worse.

    1. Agree. Boston, in particular, is wise to cancel well ahead. Lots of parents need to make alternative plans for their kids.

  94. Tk can I get a rundown of the forecast here do we get the dry slot or is it here now . Want to give the crew an update what to expect . That’s it, more to come. Thanks

    1. Boston will have mostly snow, mostly light, with brief burst of moderate, through the evening, then overnight a period of steadier light to moderate snow will bring them into their forecast range posted above. That part of the snow will be a drier snow, versus the wetter stuff that has dominated the first part of the storm. This was what I expected, as the temps were going to be marginal in Boston through the day today.

      I’ve yet to find a surprise in this one. I’ll keep looking…

  95. Impressive band over northore area. It’s been snowing moderate to heavy consistently. Radar seems to fill in more from the west.

  96. Harvey just explained this very nicely. I hope some of you were able to see that.

    We also have essentially the same snow forecast now. He adjusted his a little bit versus what Ch 5 had earlier.

      1. Same here. I have referred so many people to this blog and it is my go to for all weather information. Our superintendent of schools uses it as one of his sources now.

  98. Locations north of the pike have the best shot of numbers verifying. I don’t see places like foxboro, norwood, etc getting into that 6-10 band. Perhaps the very low end of the range.

    TK, how much total additional snow do you predict will fall for Boston and the southwest suburbs this evening and tomorrow morning?

  99. Well, I was wrong. Wilmington schools are closing. Billerica and Tewksbury announced within 2o minutes of each other, then Wilmington and Burlington within 5 mins of each other.

    1. No not yet and I hope they wait til morning.

      They well way see a wind whipped light snow falling at that time and have to delay or cancel, but I’d hope they wait to see and make sure that happens.

      We’ve had an inch on the east side of town and perhaps 2 or 3 on the west side, so if we don’t get backlash, the roads should be ok tomorrow morning.

      Of course, we’re in line to have wind gusts to 50 mph, so that could be an issue too.

  104. Cooking on the grill in a storm is is awesome as sitting on the deck on a summer evening after dark. There is an amazing peace about a snow storm. Tomorrow I’m digging out the deck chairs so I can actually have something to sit on

  106. School closing rant–I know it’s helpful for families to know the night before–particularly in families with a single parent or two working parents so that arrangements for work or other childcare options can be made, but the number of cancellations tonight is mind boggling. Obviously if there are concerns about safety, inability to clear rounds and sidewalks, than err on the side of caution, but 12 hours before when the forecast is far from a slam dunk, and there’s a clear lull now when much can be cleared, I don’t understand why not wait until morning? I’m an assistant head of an independent school–we had school on Friday, which was the right move for us–we don’t have kids who walk, and the snow ended at 8:00 pm on Thursday, gave us plenty of time to clear our lots and walkways, and we told teachers the night before so they could plan Friday morning accordingly. However, because so many other districts cancelled, there was a major domino effect–teachers had their own children in districts or daycares that were closed which made has have to do a lot of schedule juggling etc. Now we’re seeing all the local districts canceling tonight and our hand is being forced….ok–end of rant.

    1. Yeah we had this debate yesterday. I agree with you. Assuming there has been time to clean they should go. These same kids who are too cold or young to wait at a bus stop are outside sledding all day. That and it’s preparing them for life…as adults our lives don’t come to a screeching halt every time it’s cold or snowy. Rant off… 🙂

    2. I think your comments are good and fair, Dave. But in the end, it is a decision that is being made town wide and not by school. Framingham made two decisions last year that were opposite surrounding towns. Both times there was a bus accident. Thank God no one was hurt. I cannot second guess those who make the decisions as many factors come into play. I wonder if the problem is more about a place to put the snow. And walkers are a huge concern. By law sidewalks have to be clear. Smaller towns also have the issue of windy back roads. It is entirely possible that a logical call can be made this far ahead with or without additional snow.

      WW if I recall you were upset your wife had to work Thursday, so it does seem come to a halt for adults. My best guess as a parent and grandparent that one day of school when there is snow will not do anything to prepare them for life. In my experience, it is a lesson learned over years.

  107. The ratios are not really good. I have been unsee thr dark green echoes for a while but it’s not accumulating much

  108. It’s pouring here in Marshfield. Logan, Plymouth and Chatham all rose 1F last hour. Large puddles forming in the slush on the street.

    I believe the next 2 to 4 hrs will see one more subtle temp rise as the low passes by Cape Cod. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Logan get to 36F or 37F before 10 or 11pm.

    4. Plow driver on our street stopped for a bit so the kids could throw snowballs at the truck. They were in their glory

      1. When we were kids in the city we used love throwing snowballs at big box trucks…loved the sound it made when it hit the truck… 🙂

  111. There’s been a persistent band of moderate snow from Worcester extending eastward into Boston. Not much action just south of this line.

      1. Boston “may” get in on more action after midnight if the comma head doesn’t develop too far east.

  113. arod … I figure maybe 1-3 SW and 3-5 closer to the immediate city, but again it remains to be seen how impactful the backlash snow is.

  114. Still a mix here now but it seems snow and ice pellets. The plows here have been out most of the day but the roads are pretty crappy but they were that way on Friday after the Thursday event….

  115. And no school for Silver Lake. Would have thought they would wait til the morning since it is raining but I have two very happy boys!

  117. TK is there a concern that this on and off drizzle will freeze on roads overnight and create an even worse situation than just snow?

    1. I would hope that those roads should be treated and this not be an issue. The temp will go down everywhere by morning.

  118. Still all snow here.

    And again regards to the school stuff especially in Boston, so many kids take buses, take the T and then walk. I will support the decision every time because of the safety of the kids. Them missing a day here or there isn’t making them less tough. We don’t need kids to be tough, we need them to be safe. And I don’t want to hear about the comparison from 20-30 years ago. There far fewer cars, buses etc… we live in a different world now. So I am sorry parents feel inconvenienced but I actually cherish spending extra time with my kids on a snow day if I can.

    4. I’d like to get back to school to get back in the flow of learning, especially with vacation coming, but ….. I also agree with Hadi when winter weather is in question. Safety first.

  120. it is unfortunat that next weekend could get warm, I wish it could just stay cold so ski areas can keep good pow

    1. by the way its an hour break. since we allow the little guys to join they need to warm up with some hot chocolate…. oh wait that includes the me as well :P, ( everyone is welcomed to take part) Road is not usually plowed really well with this type of storm and people have sleds and snow mobiles moving around… We honestly wish the plows just stay away lol

      1. i am hoping for it to stay chilly or its like a 2 day warm up and then it goes back to chilly. I hope not going back to what it was doing before this week long winter

    1. covered, looks very nice. going to be gone by morning as the wind picks up. I am not worried about loosing power around here.

      1. They sure can look beautiful with the wet snow. I do hope when the wind picks up, it doesn’t cause many problems.

  124. TK my wife are heading to kennebunkport Feb 23 for a couple days. Do you have an idea of what temps might look like? Not looking for exact numbers. Thanks TJ

    2. I have friends selling a condo there…..need one 🙂

      This commercial brought to you by Vicki realty and company

  126. Snow appears to be mixed with RAIN. Awfully wet with much dripping from
    the trees. Just doesn’t look like a snowstorm that’s for sure.

  128. Halfway through my shift and I just went outside for a moment. Light snow here in downtown Nashua, around 6″ on the parking lot.

  129. I know in the stretch of weather we’ve seen, this might sound crazy.

    The current pattern isn’t that cold. It’s been in the 20s to near 30F in the Great Lakes region today.

    We’re going to have busy NNW winds tomorrow on the backside of a strong storm in mid February and it’s going to be just around or under 30F. In a truly cold pattern, tomorrow’s setup would have you in the single digits, above or below zero.

    1. There just wasn’t any arctic air around to tap. This is why I have been saying that today’s system is worlds different than last Thursday’s. It seemed like many thought we were in for a repeat… Not the case. It never was the case.

    2. Great point Tom. Made fajitas last night so set with window open a couple of feet in livingroom to air house. I was surprised that it didn’t get uncomfortable at all. The air has been very nice

  131. Indeed, it’s all rain where I am and the temperature is up to 34F. I think GFS will turn out to be more accurate than we may have given it credit for. There just isn’t much cold air around. With the water layer its going to be very hard for snow to accumulate even if we get backlash snows. I’m skeptical about the backlash stuff at this point. Radar appears to show gaps or dry slots to our west, southwest, and northwest. As I said before this storm feels like one we might get in mid to late March, not mid February.

    As for the warm-up next week there’s nothing we can do about it, but I’m with Matt on this. Lets have some degree of consistent cold this winter, at least for a few weeks. Too much to ask, I guess.

    1. The GFS had rain all the way to Nashua and Manchester with temps getting into the lower 30s. It’s 25 here in downtown Nashua and hasn’t really budged for several hours. The coastal front got as far as Lowell and that’s it. It’s been sitting there for 3-4 hours, and has been very slowly drifting back towards the south and east over the last hour or so.

    1. It ran on tropical tidbits but certain hours are missing. From what I can see, not much in the way of backlash snows tomorrow and the phase is too late for the midweek system.

  134. Not plain rain but appears to be sleet/rain/snow combo. Watch out in he morning as things might be very slippery depending on temps.

  135. 4″ of snow and sleet in Coventry, CT. We have had a mix of light snow, sleet, and freezing rain here this evening and it’s back to light snow now. Temp has not made it out of the upper 20’s all day. Roads are very messy, I would expect probably more school delays here in the am.

    Looks like this is it for winter weather for awhile. The midweek system bears watching, but looking like it phases too late, and next week looks like a torch across much of the country. Some promising signs though for a return to a more winter like pattern towards the end of the month.

  136. sleet/freezing rain has made it here to Billerica very light precipitation has been going between sleet/freezing rain and snow when light Heavier is snow for the past hour or so have about 6.5 inches of snow. For some reason the National weather service has me in the12-18 inch range. So they are thinking I should about double the amount we have. Not sure we make it to a foot. I am thinking maybe 10.
    What I said this morning
    0-2 inner cape/ Martha’s Vinyard.
    2-4 rest of cape/ nantucket south shore southern RI and Southern CT
    4-8 along and south of the pike including Boston and close neibors just to the north along the coast.
    8+ north of the pike with up to 2 feet possible eastern Maine.
    I think this is going to verify My early map of 10-18 I do not think will verify for Eastern areas.

  137. Just came in from a cleanup in Andover after getting home from the bruins game… (great win!), heavy snow for sure… still steady light to moderate snow. Only got through about half the drive way, finish in the morning. Big difference from the powder we’ve had. Maybe 6 inches total, just a guess though, as I did a cleanup before the game.

  140. Surprised to look up and see the moon through the cloud cover because it’s been snowing quite steadily. The streets have gone from crunchy slush to powder white (no snowplows yet). Winds are not too bad but we do have High Wind warnings for later today.

    Currently 25 degrees. Frosty night!

  141. ARGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH*@(#*&@#*@&#*!@(#*^&!@^#

    That about sums up my thoughts on this so called storm!!

    So much for a back lash. Should have known that wasn’t happening.

    Just a thorough disappointment. Totally.

    Typical of this Winter.

    Just Bring on Spring already and stop the big tease.

    Ok, Rant over. 😀 😀

    It looks like something is “Trying” to approach Boston. Not sure it happens though.

        1. Lesson #2.

          Storms being born at or above our latitude is also risky business predicting high amounts. SNE generally needs storms to start cranking around DELMARVA at least.

    3. I had 2 1/2 inches from backlash here in Woburn. Just stopped snowing.

      Several more inches in northeastern MA.

      So yes, the backlash did happen and where it was most likely to. I said all along it was a wildcard and where it was most likely.

      Total about 10.5 inches here.

  142. Parts of the South Shore are getting some snow. Oh so close, but none-the-less it’s
    not in here. “Just a bit Outside”.

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