Wednesday Forecast

176 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
No significant changes. Low pressure approaches and moves through the region today and tonight but the 2 main pieces of energy don’t link up until east of the Gulf of Maine. We do catch some of the back lash from this system tonight and early Thursday but the major impact from it will be limited to Maine where more significant snow is likely. A more tranquil period of weather follows this with a cold start to it and a warm-up following.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of snow/sleet/rain. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers, but a period of snow may bring 1-3 inches to far northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Highs 33-40.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-15. Highs 25-32.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-15. Highs 35-42.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Highs 47-54.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
Above normal temps overall, warmest to start the period. Next storm threat mid to late period likely rain versus snow but will watch it.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
Mainly dry or minor weather systems but a colder trend possible toward the end of the period.

176 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

      1. I don’t believe they issue a watch for an advisory.
        IF a Winter Storm Warning is not appropriate then they
        will change the Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory.

        In the text discussion they mentioned the reasoning, because
        they didn’t want to go from Nothing to a Warning in the event it pans out. If it doesn’t pan out, then they can take down the watch or post an advisory.

        I don’t see any problem with it.

        1. Yea I mean to say that they should have jus issues a winter weather advisory like we have seen before in minor snow events. I know this is debatable but 4 to 6 inches should be an advisory level, even thought a 6 or more is a warning level. But who knows, maybe this storm will have a nice surprise, one can hope ☺

    1. Indeed, check out this strong wording from the NWS. It should be noted that
      later in the discussion they did say that they “thought” this band would set up
      farther North in Maine and NH. But, one never knows.

      warm-moist air trowals rearward of the strong cyclogenesis along the 280-
      300K isentropic surfaces up against colder air pushing in from the W
      yielding deformation along a now surface to H7 inverted trough. No
      doubt we`ll see a narrow-banded region of deep-layer moisture all
      the way through H6 undergoing deep-layer forcing with large values
      of omega and associated convergence. Steepening lapse rates and weak
      values of MUCAPE, areas within the narrow-band along the inverted
      trough could see snowfall rates of 1-3″/hr and thundersnow, more so
      if we get development of a meso-low along the trough.

  10. Right now, IF I were making a forecast for Boston I would go with a coating to as much as 2 inches and let it go at that. Pretty much covered unless there is a complete surprise. 😀

    1. Far North shore is a different Story.

      Last night Harvey had 1-3 for Boston and 2-5 North Shore with 4-8 North
      of the border.

      Pete also hinted at snow in his previews on the New NBC. He said expect snow tomorrow night (meaning tonight). Tune in to see how much your area will get.

      1. Although I like Eric Fisher, My wife and I became tired of
        the news presentation on Channel 4 and switched to channel 5.
        We are much more satisfied with channel 5 plus they do have Harvey.

  11. I have to drive from Boston area to Portland, ME tomorrow, mid morning – think this is a disastrous idea or will roads be clear by 11?? Thanks in advance!

  12. Kathleen, I think that’s going to be a slow drive. Also, keep in mind that up in Maine they just finishing clearing the snow from the previous storm. My guess is the number of lanes in use will be limited at times. Be safe.

  18. Every time I give up on this thing, I see something else.
    “could” there yet be a surprise tonight???? Ahhh that is the big question

    1. HRRR certainly is advertised at least “some” snow all the way down to the
      Boston Area, including the city. How much is the million dollar question.

  19. Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Taunton MA
    1011 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

    EXACTLY the same as 4 AM this morning. NO CHANGE in their discussion.

  21. Looking back around this time last year and 2015…

    Low temp in Taunton yesterday in 2016 was -11, the coldest reading in 20 years.

    There was 34″ of snow on the ground on this date in 2015.

    After looking up my records, I forgot how deeply cold it was in February, 2015 in addition to the snow: We had four straight nights of negative low temps from February 14-17. Taunton had a total of seven lows registering in negative numbers that February.
    I remember the wood-framed houses making quaking and booming sounds because of the extreme cold.

  24. Not that I was there to see it (not quite THAT old), the greatest snow depth recorded ever in Taunton was February 12, 1948 with 45″.

    I counted 21 snow events from December 1, 1947-February 28, 1948.

    Too bad WHW didn’t exist during THAT winter!!!

    1. I was around, but certainly don’t remember as I was less than a year old. 😀

      However, that is the Winter that Roland Boucher Was telling me about where
      many Clippers looked harmless until they blew up near Nantucket and dropped a foot of snow on most of SNE. 😀

  25. There are 10 hours, 40 minutes of daylight today.
    We’re picking up about 2 minutes, 30 seconds of sun a day now!

  27. Some good melting going on today. With projected temps the next 7-10 days and not adding to the snowpack, I can’t see our snowpack lasting much past that period.

    1. I would be surprised if there wasn’t still snow after this warm up period given the type of snow and the melting/refreezing. south facing slopes stand no chance however

      1. In areas north of the pike who got 6+” from the Sunday/Monday storm (more water content) I would agree. However, areas that only got a few inches, once that layer is gone, under that layer is low water content that will go quickly

  31. No change to my forecast other than maybe a slight tweak later. And I mean slight.

    Heading out to take mom to doctor and get bloodwork myself. Fun stuff. 😀

    3. only thing I hate more than bloodwork is the dentist which sadly I am going sometime in the next 2 weeks as I feel a cavity is coming. Its what I get for skipping out on the 6 month cleaning appointment 🙁

    1. Fascinating video presentation by Bernie.

      Exactly what we have been discussing here.

      And it is really close for Boston. I keep looking at the HRRR
      radar sims and Boston has some strong echoes for a time.
      How much snow it will produce is to be determined.

      A coating? and inch or 2? More? Who knows for sure.

  34. Here is that focused Band that Bernie was talking about as it is moving south
    towards Boston.

    http://atlas.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2017021520/NE/HRRRNE_prec_ptype_012.png

    As it gets to Boston it looks like it losing a bit of it’s punch

    http://atlas.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2017021520/NE/HRRRNE_prec_ptype_013.png

    This looks to be HAPPENING. It is just a question of how much snow it will be able to put down. Does not look like it lasts all that long. Something 1-3 or 2-4 inches
    I would say.

  36. I’m not bullish on snow tonight: < 1 inch in Boston, if that. Several inches on the North Shore, and 6-12 in Maine. Here, temps are marginal at best. Right now they're `balmy.' Plus, it's raining at the moment. So, once the snow does arrive it'll have a hard time accumulating.

  37. By the way, what happened to the warm temperatures next week? Looks like we’ll get two fairly `warm’ ones on Sunday and Monday, but after that the potential for some snow and seasonable temperatures for several days.

  38. Joshua comments not withstanding, I just got home. It’s been raining. Down to 39 and just before I got home, I swear on a stack of bibles I saw a big fat wet snow flake splat On the windshield.

    1. I hope we get some measurable snow, but I’m not `feeling’ it. If it’s a coating at least the dirty snow will be covered for a bit.

  39. I don’t know if this means much to us here at WHW but thundersnow was reported at Hartford a little while ago.

  40. I figure the final 10 days of this month should average about +5F compared to normal, although as TK has alluded to in his forecast there may be a cooldown right towards the end of the month. So a pretty decent warm-up to end what’s been a seasonable month so far in the temperature department.

    I haven’t put a lot of time into coming up with ideas about a March forecast. From what I’ve looked at though, I figure we’ll see some ups and downs with temperature as is typical of March, but probably averaging near or a little on the cooler side of normal. The weekly guidance is also bullish about the idea of above average precipitation, so we’ll have to watch for that risk, either in the form of late season snows, or I think more likely in the form of early spring heavy rains.

  41. Also in the seasonal forecast category, there’s been increasing speculation recently about the return of El Nino this summer, and how it may be a little more feisty than originally thought. Going from a super El Nino, to a very weak La Nina, then (hypothetically) back in such short order to a strong El Nino would be basically unprecedented on our ENSO records, but some of the seasonal guidance is trending in that direction. Just a possibility for now, but it’s something to watch for especially as we head towards summer.

  43. The radar is going bonkers. Still raining here and down to 37. I “think” I see an occasional wet snow flake. IF the intensity of the rain would pick up a tad I think
    we’ll go over fairly quickly. Temperatures above support snow. Just not sure of
    current freezing level, we may have to get that down a bit before a changeover.

    I see Yellows exploding just South and East of Boston and moving in.

    1. Special Weather statement from NWS

      http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=special%20weather%20statement

      I think that their 9-midnight time period for the changeover is bogus.
      I think it changes over before 9PM. At least here at my house anyway.

      Eric Fisher is saying 1-3 inches. Earlier I said 1-3 or 2-4 sounded reasonable.
      Frankly, I’d go with the 2-4.

      Latest HRRR Kuchera method

      http://atlas.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2017021522/NE/HRRRNE_prec_kuchsnow_018.png

      10:1

      http://atlas.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2017021522/NE/HRRRNE_prec_snow_018.png

      Not for nothing, but these totals keep Going UP with each successive HRRR
      run.

      I like my 2-4 inches.

  45. Here is the latest HRRR 925mb chart for 8PM.

    I don’t think it snows Until that freezing line at least gets here.

  46. Is this radar for real? OR is someone flying around dropping strips of aluminum foil???

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.23043478260869565&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=282.83018867924534&centery=430.9433962264151&transx=-117.16981132075466&transy=190.94339622641508&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24786745&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    1. Btw, it is raining pretty hard here in JP. Still 37, but some of those rain drops
      have a slushy whitish hue to them. 😀

      1. Pouring here too and on the windshield, it had that look of a very very wet snow flake.

        That central mass precip looks like it’s intensifying too.

        1. I think we are in for an interesting night AND for once, I think the NWS might be a tad low. 😀
          We shall see. Already, it’s much more interesting than
          how it looked even this morning. 😀

          1. I do too. Until this evening, I hadn’t given any thought to snow for Marshfield out of this and now most everything shows 1-2 inches here. My students have a benchmark assessment tomorrow in math and if we have a delay, that will destroy that plan because the classes will be too short.

  47. One thermometer I have (Acurite) does not show tenths (I have it set on purpose to whole) but my other one (oregon scientific) has tenths and it has dropped to
    36.5. That is usually indicative of some snow flakes mixed in. We shall see.

    2. Temp is dropping but incrementally and it’s not sufficient for a accumulating snow (yet). It’s too bad because there’s certainly a slug of precipitation out there on radar.

      1. Once it starts to really mix it will drop to 35 and then slowly from there to 33 or 32. It WILL accumulate then, unless the intensity
        lightens up.

  48. Freezing level forecast for 7PM.

    1000-3000 feet. Wish I had exact.

    https://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/data/icing/2017021523_ruc00hr_lvl_frzg.gif

    Here is a better map of current freezing levels. Place the cursor over an area and it displays the freezing level. It says 2400 feet for Boston, so that means it could mix
    with snow anytime now or certainly fairly soon as the column continues to cool.

    https://www.ventusky.com/?p=39.3;-77.8;4&l=freezing&t=20170216/00

    1. WOW! that’s a live map. I just placed the cursor there again and the freezing
      level for Boston has come down to 2200 feet. I like this map and the fact
      that the freezing level is lowering.

          1. I knew you would like it. I just found that site tonight trying to find something with the freezing level, which is so apropos for this evening. 😀

  50. The short range guidance started modeling the heavier pockets of precipitation and even possible thunder about 3 or 4 hours ago. This is a typical scenario for this type of energy transfer. Not unusual at all. No change to the forecast.

      1. I have Boston in a coating to 2 because there is still enough uncertainty that they could get into a brief but very heavy burst overnight.

        It remains to be seen if’/when that call comes. Let me guess 11 to 12.

        1. It’s Flipping here now. I just moved my car from the street to the driveway. I live on a deadend street, last house of course. If it snows and I leave the car in the street, they sometimes won’t plow.

          I could see the SNOW hitting the windshield.
          Absolutely in the process of changing over here.

  51. TK, of f we were to have a weak to borderline moderate El Niño. Would that mean a crappy winter next year?

    1. It would depend on how long it lasted and at what intensity, as well as EPO/AO/NAO/QBO/MJO/etc .. You get the idea. 🙂

    1. Yes. It will start changing its orientation and moving more to the southwest then southeast as a slow pivot gets underway.

  54. Hey TK this is my working email. I realized my other email I used has been inactive for ages. I assume you need to approve this.

    2. It’s happening, it’s just taking a while as it has to cool 2,ooo feet of the boundary layer. The largest drops come down as wet snow, but the smaller ones come down still melted as rain. I’ll give it a bit longer. 😀

  58. 33.9 in groveland in the process of mixing and turning to snow…precipitation has been light thusfar…starting to pick up now…won’t be long before it’s snow

  60. Actually looks like Boston will go back to rain for a while as the intensity lightens up. They probably have to wait until after midnight now. Transfer to offshore is rapidly taking place now. This will be evident by the more intense echoes shifting southeast of the city.

      1. Not really. I figure most of Boston’s accumulation (and it won’t be all that much) will take place after midnight anyway, probably between 3AM and 6AM.

          1. Pretty much the same. I’m a little worried about icy ground with snow atop it for the early morning.

    1. Makes sense. Falling temps, wet ground, and a coating of snow overnight. That’s enough to warrant an advisory.

  67. Large wet flakes in Boston. Hey, at least we’re making some headway in the drought department. But with the temp well above freezing there will be little snow accumulation in my estimation. Perhaps towards daybreak but then most of the action will be shooting in a northeasterly direction.

  72. It was raining on the North Shore at 8:30 pm but it’s definitely snowing here now.

    JpDave: that’s an incredible Ventusky map. You can even enter in your zip code. It’s similar to earth.nullschool.net but this is able to zoom in better. Thank you for that link!!

    For the link, see this comment from JpDave at 7:54 PM:
    “Here is a better map of current freezing levels. Place the cursor over an area and it displays the freezing level. It says 2400 feet for Boston, so that means it could mix
    with snow anytime now or certainly fairly soon as the column continues to cool.”
    https://www.ventusky.com/?p=39.3;-77.8;4&l=freezing&t=20170216/00

  76. 03Z HRRR Kuchera snow

    http://atlas.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2017021603/NE/HRRRNE_prec_kuchsnow_018.png

    10:1

    http://atlas.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2017021603/NE/HRRRNE_prec_snow_018.png

    But I have seen the echoes on Radar expand westward and intensify in the last
    1/2 hour or so. I think there will be more snow than depicted on those HRRR runs.
    We shall see.

    Regardless, it is more than I expected and nice to see.

    33 here and SNOWING decently. I had lightened up considerably, but now snowing harder.

    1. Actually a dry patch should take the snow mostly out of the area around 12:30 or 1:00AM and then a second surge will come down around 3AM or so.

  77. Snow just about stopped here for now. Dry air right on schedule. Boston will now go to spotty very light non-accumulating snow for a couple hours.

  79. Hood morning. Still snowing here. Beautiful scene. Ok not b2-4, but rather 1/2 or 1 inch.
    Still better than we thought yesterday am.

  81. Coating to 2 fell in the strip it was forecast to except a few higher than 2 inch amounts in spotty locations and a few coatings a little further southwest than expected. A 2-4 inch swath was located in northeastern MA and southwestern NH and the lower end of a 4-8 band is being achieved with the final flakes from the NH Seacoast to Cape Ann MA.

    New post is up now!

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