Monday Forecast

74 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
High pressure to the north delivers a chilly northerly wind for this Presidents Day and a cold night tonight as it noses down across southern New England and sets up radiational cooling as some snow cover remains in the area. A weak disturbance will approach from the west later Tuesday and may bring some patchy rain and interior freezing rain Tuesday evening. Though clouds will be more dominant than sun, we should see dry weather and mild air around for the middle of the week Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday night, another cold front will take the edge off the very mild air for the end of the week, though temperatures will remain above normal.
TODAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 11-17 interior valleys, 18-26 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind light S.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of brief light rain except freezing rain central MA and south central NH evening. Lows 30-38 early then rising slowly overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 47-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 38-45. Highs 55-63.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-38. Highs 45-52.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
Low pressure likely cuts through the Great Lakes and passes north of New England with a mild wet February 25 followed by a windy, colder, and drier February 26 behind a cold front. Another system may take a similar track February 27-28 with rain favored over snow before it turns colder behind this system for the arrival of March.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)
The pattern is slightly indeterminate but the early indications are for a switch to colder weather overall and a storm threat of rain/mix/snow for a portion of this period.

74 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  13. What a beautiful day. I’d happily take today in mid-march, but it being
    2/20 makes it all the better!
    Not as mild as yesterday, but zero complaints here.

  15. 12z GFS ….

    Hr 129 which would be 4pm Saturday is showing ….

    A lifted index of -2 to -4 nosing it’s way up to just north of Philadelphia. The dps are projected to be in the 50s and there’s a 990mb sfc low northwest of Toronto. Perhaps some thunderstorms not too far from New England next weekend, but this instability indicator does go positive as the front approaches eastern mass.

    I’m beginning to wonder about the warm surge Thursday. The low passing northwest of us isn’t the strongest and on the sfc temp projection map at hr 78, which is 1pm Thursday, while it does show 12 to 15C in southern New England, it has most of eastern NH and Maine in much cooler air.

  17. Apologies for my delayed reaction but just getting caught up on several days’ worth of postings….

    CONGRATULATIONS ACE!!! So glad to hear the news of our newest addition!

    As for the warm up – now this is what I’m talking about!

  18. Great read from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan on how 6 years after the Springfield Tornado new satellite imagery capturing the damage path covered in fresh snow.
    I will never forget that day and watching that Tornado on live television as this was the first time I ever saw a tornado on live television in New England and how many miles it was on the ground for this part of the country is something that does not happen here often.
    http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/stories/Sprinfield-Tornado-Scar-Present-Nearly-6-Years-Later-414255903.html?v

    1. Although I didn’t see the read, I did see an image of that satellite view. I believe TK posted it somewhere.

    1. Wow! Even if that exact temp doesn’t verify, any snow will be gone completely other than the usual huge parking lot piles here and there.

  21. Judah Cohen ‏@judah47 · 17h17 hours ago
    I will be updating the blog on Tuesday. It will likely require downward propagation of #polarvortex disruption to reverse very mild pattern.

    1. What does he mean likely require?
      Does he mean he will be placing that into the forecast
      OR
      does he mean in order to reverse the mild pattern, it would take that
      to happen and he is NOT forecasting it.

      1. He’s just saying what would have to happen to make it cold again. He didn’t say whether or not he thinks it will happen. 🙂

        1. That is exactly what I wanted to know. I figured it was too Good to be true that he would put it in the forecast.
          perhaps he will. He didn’t say he wouldn’t.

  22. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 2h2 hours ago
    Warmest Feb on record ( 1954) followed by cold March
    GEFS day 1 v day 16. Deja vu all over again

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 2h2 hours ago
    In fact if one takes 1954,1984,1999, 3 very warm Febs and then look at the Marches that followed, turn around would be no surprise

      1. My JB posts are for entertainment purposes only 🙂
        That said, looking at the long range GFS and Euro, it sure looks like a chillier and more active pattern after the cutter this weekend. We’ll see….could get interesting again around here pretty soon.

  23. He’s still talking himself into and out of it………

    Judah Cohen ‏@judah47 · 4m4 minutes ago
    Lack of snow cover and increasing sun angle will retard any cool down-still GFS says chance of #snow north of 40N East US starting w weekend

      1. I like the guy a lot. Admire his posts very much, and he’s very gracious. My point here is really there isn’t any groundbreaking info, more of a *pause* .. let’s wait and see.

        1. I find his thoughts way too long and technical for the general public (non mets). It would be good if he could simplify them a bit without dumbing them down, of course.

  24. A little hope here for those of us who like snow. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    This week’s crazy warmth won’t last… looks like a stormier pattern (and maybe some snow/ice chances) next week.

  25. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNBCBoston · 2h2 hours ago
    There continue to be signals that the start of March may be a bit colder and Stormier. Also that March *overall* will be warmer than normal.

  26. Fear not snowlovers, I’m going to Florida very early Wednesday (as in 3/1, not this Weds) so it’s BOUND to snow, particularly next Tues night/Wed AM for my 6:15a flight.

    🙂

    1. You are looking all clear so far on the trusty long range GFS. But it has a pretty good thump of snow starting about 24 hours after you leave…..

  29. Sister in law said 76 in Atlanta….trees trying to bud a bit early. They have had a fair amount of higher than average temps…..this is according to her and no weather source

  30. When your looking a thunderstorm parameters this far north in the winter you know your in warm weather regime. GFS been consistently showing for Friday enough CAPE and Lift for thunderstorm development parts of Midwest and parts of Western PA and NY
    CAPE
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017022018&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=099

    LIFT
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017022018&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=099

  31. We’ll work our way into the serious warmth over the next week here in the Northeast, but it will only lift us to a modestly above average month in terms of temperature. We’re at about average so far. However, it’s been a different story for much of the month to our west over a large swath of the country, where exceptional warmth, which will continue for another couple days, is likely to propel the CONUS to one of its warmest February’s on record.

  32. I love that the snow chasing tweet making mets out there see the most recent ECMWF Ensembles signal a bit more of a west ridge / trough east set up for 10 days out and they immediately start hyping the snow possibility. Even with a “signal” of a colder, stormier pattern ECWMF ENS Mean snowfall for SNE over the next 15 days ~3″

    Every year the hype makers try to apply Jan 30th parameters to a march 5th events.

    It will snow in March. I am sure of that. It will be colder than this most recent and immediate upcoming stretch. Also March will trend will drier than modeled….

    1. Pretty much agree here. I believe our snow threats in March will actually be present moreso when we are near the border of warmth than in a deeper cold pattern, which will end up drier.

      A transition will probably be underway in the first 7 days of the month, give or take.

  34. Thanks, TK.

    What’s Bastardi talking about? February was not especially mild, at least not around here. Does he mean nationwide? By the way, I do remember a mild February in 1999 followed by some very chilly and windy days in March.

    As far as snow chances, I’d say that March usually offers plenty of those. However, many don’t materialize or just produce cold rain, particularly at the coast.

      1. True. I just thought that February on the whole was not especially mild. I can remember some mild February’s, including 1997. We know what happened on the 1st of April that year.

  35. TK – Basically, are we looking at cold & snowy first half of March, then pretty much done for the second half? As for April, more or less likely than not?

    1. I’m not really sure about all of March. I like a transition from mild to colder with 1 or 2 storm threats (rain/mix/snow – too early to know), then I like a colder/drier interlude. Unknown after. April, jury’s out. I have my ideas and they lean warm and dry but that’s never a clear cut thing next to the ocean in the spring.

  37. According to Pete on NBC Boston, a seabreeze likely tomorrow with Boston temps holding in the upper 30s. Pete is also concerned about drought conditions returning due to early widespread snowmelt.

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