Saturday Forecast

129 Comments

11:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
Our anomalous warm stretch is about to come to an end, but a baby brother follow up is on the way. First one more very mild today today, not as sunny for most of the region as a lot more clouds will be around, but enough sun to boost temperatures over 60 away from where wind comes off the ocean water. A few showers may pop up during the day, but the main action will come with a cold front from west to east tonight. We’ll be watching a squall line march out of NY State into western New England. This will likely become less organized and weaken as it moves to the east but still some gusty showers and a rumble of thunder may occur. Snow will occur right behind the front in the mountains of western New England but that will not make it into southeastern New England. The colder air will, however, and though this is only a return to near to slightly above normal temperatures it will be a whole lot cooler than the last few days were, and the wind accompanying it will make you feel the difference on Sunday. The trade of will be plenty of sunshine. We go right back to milder weather, but not as warm as this current stretch, Monday through Wednesday. By Wednesday, the first day of March, a front in the area should be bringing us some unsettled weather again.
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers afternoon. Highs 51-59 South Coast, 60-68 elsewhere. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Numerous rain showers and possible thunder west to east across the region between 7PM and midnight (possibly a little later Cape Cod). Temperatures in the 50s early, falling to 40s overnight. Wind S to SW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-31. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 48-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Lows 28-37. Highs 50-58.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 33-40. Highs 47-55.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)
Colder with 1 or 2 snow/ice/rain threats during this time.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)
Colder pattern continues. Watching for additional rain/ice/snow threats during this time as well.

129 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. I realize that I broadbrushed both the 6-10 and 11-15 days today. That’s on purpose. The deterministic details are like 5000 piece puzzles at this point.

    I can tell you that March 2 will likely end up as an above normal temp day because of a warm starting point. So “colder” does not mean 5 days of below normal temps.

  3. Than you tk. Out and about.
    Car thermometer reading 69
    In partial sunshine. Toasty out. Of course no jacket today.

  4. 22 years of season tickets to Providence College basketball–today be the first day I’ve ever worn shorts to a game.

  5. Thanks, TK.

    Felled with SAD as I’ve really had it with this string of 50s and 60s in February, on top of some 50s and 60s in January. It doesn’t feel right to be sweating and feel humidity in winter.

  6. We have a 3-ring circus going on outside of my window.
    2 young workers from Eversource are attempting to remove the
    tree from the electrical wires. A real comedy. We’re waiting for them to snap
    the wires and for us to lose electicity. Within 1/2 hour guaranteed.

    The went up an adjacent tree to string a rope for a pulley and they
    are attempting to leverage the tree trunk up off of the wires and let it
    go safely to the ground. Only problem is the branch they draped the pulley over
    will NOT support the weight of the tree trunk. This should be hilarious at our expense!!!

    1. Well, somehow they got it done. Tree is down and off of the wires. Now a mess
      for neighbors to clean up. Eversource just provided the emergency service to
      remove the tree from the wires.

      It look a minimum of 3 calls to Eversource and 3 calls to the city, the last one an angry call by myself to the Mayor’s hot line. They got Eversource on the phone
      after I called Eversource Negligent. The city got them to move! Thank you Mr. Mayor!

      I called at 10:15 AM and they were here by 11:45 AM. Not too bad.

  7. Noon at logan up to 65 tying the record. Surely it gets surpassed!

    Even my Oregon Scientific thermometer in the shade is reading 70.5 while Acurite
    in the sun is reading 73. 😀

  8. Mesoscale discussion from SPC just to the west of SNE for possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Is this February???

  9. Every new run of the HRRR seems to hold that squall line together a little further east… will be interesting to see how far it makes it.

  12. http://www.noaa.gov/stories/6-things-to-know-about-coastal-habitat-restoration

    this is a link that JP Dave posted yesterday. The reasoning why I think this is safe from a certain maniac is that it has support of the fishermen and the people in the middle of the country can’t really do anything about it… thank god. Not so much the big corporate but your local fishermen. these are nurseries for many if the fish and crab you and I eat for seafood. The lab that I am part of and working for as a research assistant has connections with this. Major parts for my lab is coastal restoration. A major one right in our backyard in Boston is Salt Marsh restoration measuring the effects of urbanization. We have a unique situation here in New England as many around Boston is greatly affected by urbanization but just to the north and south they are less affected with Nantucket, and parts of the Maine coast having some of the most pristine environments. I can tell you first hand. the marshes here in Boston do not have the same smell as those on Nantucket. The mud is different. Much less fiddler crabs. The marshes around Boston are basically dead in terms of biodiversity. It is getting better though. Boston harbor has actually seen an increase in some of its underwater habitats due to the cleaning of the harbor and restoration.

    On a more positive note some species of fish are coming back in population but due to climate change restoration efforts are much harder and lead to questions to what ways we should go at it because the ranges of most species have shifted north.

    MY research that I am doing this summer for my Independant research project is about Crab population dynamics and if there is any temperature preferences (IE do invasive crab species become more dominate the warmer the water temperatures with the native species (blue and Lady) moving out.) and consumption rates. My focus will be in the seagrass beds.

    again thanks JP for posting that link, I feel its protected for several reasons especially since there is economic indications. Not to mention if you get rid of one regulation, you have to get rid of 2.. which is actually helping NOAA Fisheries protect areas as they are basically saying LOL we just won’t open them 😀 😀 😀 😀 bad for the big commercial fishermen but ok for the local as there are some things that do not include the local fishermen. and good for restoration efforts.

    1. oh also Blackstone, no one got political until weatherwiz did. If you want to play games, so be it just don’t complain when people call you out on it.

      1. No, you posted a link from that rag mother jones magazine about the EPA. No one posted a damn thing political until that mother jones garbage. Then someone else posted up a long rant on the president. Like I said, this is a weather blog. If you guys want to rant on the president, fine. I don’t give a damn. Just don’t do it on here, or else I’ll feel free to rant on liberals and fake global warming.

        1. in response to ww comment. someone posted about the lunitic. the epa is related to earth sciences. like several on here have tried to get across is even if u do not believe in the over welming data that shows climate change is happening that we should do our best to improve it.

        2. u also said u would not comment on my stuff blackstone because it ends up in fights.i have respected your wish for me not to comment on your comment but u did not follow through. I did not see my post as political but showing what people that work for the epa are feeling. just like any business

  13. Latest HRRR has the line go absolutely POOF by the time it reaches the coast
    with virtually ZIPPO for rain in Boston.

  15. Ok.
    Politics. Again.

    I’m really getting tired of this.

    Please take your political arguments to either Facebook or email. Thanks.

  16. Had the air conditioning on in the car most of the way up to VT this am it was so muggy. Ridiculous! It’s in the 50s here at okemo. Still, plenty of snow here. 2 to 3 foot base and 112 of 121 trails open. The VT ski areas are going to make it through this mild spell without as much damage as I feared.

    1. My friend is currently in the Saratoga Springs NY area awaiting storms. We’ve been corresponding during her chase as she is solo out there today…

  17. Couple tornado warnings in PA and some severe thunderstorm warnings in other parts of Mid Atlantic. Radar lighting up like a Christmas tree.

  18. First severe thunderstorm watch of 2017 for where I am in CT. Will see if that line weakens upon approach or holds together.

    2. Yup. My daughter lives in Hopkinton and frequents that store. Neither her
      nor her husband were in the store, thankfully.

      Thank you for posting.

        1. Glad she was not there and it is over. We are familiar with store as well but not as regular as someone who lives in the area

  20. Kids are all out playing ….except my grands so they won’t spread flu. There is one pile of snow left and they are all in it. I love it

    1. thats great, the kids are out playing, its honestly something I wish I saw more of. Sorry to hear about the grands having the flu. I remember when all the snow has melted the big snow mound at the end of the street. under the big Oak. which had tunnels and we had snowball fights and stuff around it. The advantage is that it did not get covered in that black crud you find on the sides of the roads.

    1. I think it weakens by the time it gets to me. Numerous severe thunderstorm warnings with that line from NY State down to the Mid Atlantic. There were couple tornado warnings earlier in PA and south of D.C.

  23. Wow people are in a hurry to get there yard & debris removed . I am getting absolutely slammed today with work all around the south shore , wow . All day tomorrow I’ll be out giving estimates and one small construction Debris job in marshfield. What tomorrow be dry

  25. New tornado warning with a storm northeast PA and parts of Upstate NY. The warning was issued from the Binghamton, NY Office.

  28. I saw my first redwing blackboard, this is even earlier than the 2012 season when I saw the first males around the 6 of March

  30. I am not thinking this is a repeat of that overnight severe weather we had in SNE last Feb. 24th. I think were looking at a weakening line as it approaches western parts of SNE.

  32. I’m really sick and tired of seeing comments disparaging `liberals’ or `fake global warming’ or `Mother Jones rag.’ First, there’s nothing wrong with liberals or conservatives. Neither group should be the subject of derision. It’s the divisive tone on Cable News, talk radio, and other outlets that’s breeding intolerance. Second, global warming is an ongoing subject of debate in which scientists are measuring climate variables. While some scientists may be politically motivated to report certain data or to interpret that data in a particular way, I believe the majority of scientists who’ve arrived at a consensus view on global warming are not to be tagged with labels, whether liberal or conservative. The problematic area in which politics does get involved is how much of global warming can be attributed to man’s influence. Here’s where we all need to take a step back from the political discussion and make sure we are prudent stewards of this earth (because one thing we know for sure is that man can and does pollute). Third, Mother Jones is far from a rag magazine. Surely it has a liberal bias, but equally biased are great magazines such as the Weekly Standard and the National Review. I read them all. I respect them all. To be fully informed and not resort to knee-jerk, rather juvenile responses to what is not one’s political cup-of-tea it is important that we adopt a tolerant view of the other side. Otherwise, we as a country will head to the abyss, which I’m afraid we’re in the process of doing given the current political climate.

  34. Vicki the storms weakened had a downpour.
    The storms starting losing there intensity as they were entering western CT. Earlier in the day they were quite feisty with even some tornado warnings in parts of PA and Upstate NY and saw a report of a roof off a home in the Scranton Wilksbarre area of PA.

    1. I was hoping you’d get a taste of them. I was watching as they started to lose intensity. Sorry about that. Looks as if this area won’t see anything either.

      1. The air a little too stable over CT which is a thunderstorms kryptonite. Last year was a different story as that line maintained itself crossing SNE.

  35. I’m taking a break from here for a while. I’m afraid I’ll say something that will get me thrown off of here. My politics and world view are 180 degrees from about 90% of you that post. From what I can see, there’s a small clique of you who post all the time whose world view is totally different from my world, and I really don’t fit in.
    Matt doesn’t see that what he posts is political and no one wants to point it out to him. When I try, I get back handed passsive agressive comments. Life’s to short for this, especially from a weather blog I can basically live with out posting on.
    Maybe I’ll post again, maybe I won’t. We’ll see.
    Thanks to TK for the forecasts; I’ll still get my weather from here anyway.
    I wish you all well.

    1. Blackstone, I do not mind reading your political views at all. You add a lot to this blog. I’d be sad to see you go. I respect your opinions. But, what I don’t want to hear from you or anyone else are disparaging comments about issues and things that don’t deserve such derision (eg, Mother Jones, fake global warming). You’re right that Matt’s statements are political. To be fair, I should have been more explicit in pointing that out.

      Your views are not always diametrically opposed to mine. You’d be surprised. I’m not easily labeled as a liberal as I’m in favor of charter schools, have personal qualms about abortion, worry about the excesses of a welfare state, etc … I come from a deeply conservative family: Mom is from rural Pennsylvania (I’m talking Wilkie country in 1940 – they hated Roosevelt – and now Trump country); Dad is from Baltimore but spent most of his growing up in the deep south; 3 of 4 siblings are libertarian conservatives. Despite this, I became a slightly left-of-center person. Nevertheless, at the dinner table we were told not to hide from our political views and to air them out. We had lively, respectful discussions. And my father laid the hammer down when anyone would use disparaging remarks to denigrate a liberal or a conservative. Alas, I do think his approach is fading from the American scene as we become a nation of camps that squabble and insult rather than work together and unite. Both sides are to blame.

  36. I posted that link Not trying to get political a certain someone made it political and others responded to him. I used that site because I was seeing many articles circling around the internet with scientists from the EPA and other agencies showing concern. I did my research before I posted it. Do you remember when we agreed to not comment on each other’s stuff to avoid confrontation? We are polar opposites on most views. I have not commented on any of your stuff until today after I saw your comment on yesterday’s blog. That approach is fading as this nation is experiencing separation of Coastal regions (post industrial) with the dying (industrial age) holding on to dear life as the post industrial and globalization is taking over.. This fight has been building for a while. Everyone has their own beliefs some more extreme than the other. I have felt that some people on here have been attacking me, but then expect me to fight back to back up my view. You are saying that you feel like people are squashing your views and expect us to respect them, Ok then respect ours as well. You say I do not know that my posts are political, Im sorry that you believe everything in climate and environmental science is political. Its just not the case. Most of the things I have posted about climate change and regulations are science-based and to be all honest it was republicans back in the 70s and 80s who put so much of these agencies in place. Part of the problem us environmental science majors need to fight is the exagerated over the top fake stuff thats floating around… such as all the Antarctic ice will be gone in 15 years which is not entirely accurate as increasing temperatures = more precipitation which means more snow.
    I do not want our different views to ruin this blog . So after this blog page. Lets again agree not to comment on each others stuff unless its strictly positive towards the comment. If anyone wants to message me and argue about it email me I have both very liberal and very conservative friends that we get into civil debates on issues. Matthew.Souza101@gmail.com

    1. Hey Matt , I think your the one who has been posting crap on here and it’s going back awhile now . You’ve had run ins with more than one blogger here . We are a lot older than you and don’t need the immature attitude.

          1. I can’t be bothered just knock your shit off ok. You and I both know you’ve been pissing people off. I’m done with you . Although this has nothing to do with me I’m not going to sit back and watch a good blogger leave because of you .

  37. The leading edge of the squall line just passed through here in Plymouth, NH. No thunder with it, but still packing some punch with a heavy downpour and winds gusting close to 40mph.

    1. i been watching that line, which to be honest looks like 2 very impressive for a late febuary. the NWS had severe thunderstorm watches up for berkshire country.

  40. You people should be ashamed.
    Really.

    You can hate me or leave here, but I have had ENOUGH. As soon as I get home, a lot of messages go. AND DON’T ASK ME ABOUT MY DECISIONS.

    THEY ARE MINE and ARE FINAL.

    2. No thunder/lightning here so far in Hingham..but there has been quite a bit on the blog here in the past couple of hours 😉

      1. Not all night, there’s a band of showers to pass through for 1 to 2 hours. I think it might even partially or fully clear by sunrise.

  42. Our temperature reality check is getting closer. Down to 34F in Pittsfield, MA.

    I enjoyed the warmth. At the same time, it fealt strange to me. The scene around said winter with bare trees, rather brown lawns and not a summer sun angle and yet the air was so warm.

    1. Well Tom I had calls all day today and I’ll be out all day tomorrow providing estimates. Quick job in marshfield tomorrow as I have some construction debris to pick up . So I say bring on spring .

      1. Well, above normal next week again thru Thursday.

        After that, we’ll see. All it would take is a west coast ridge and even just some blocking at high latitudes and winter would be back. There’s plenty of below zero air up there to be tapped.

  43. I saw at the bottom of Taunton’s discussion some reference to, I believe, tying the February dp record or perhaps it was feb 24ths dp record of 54F

    As best as I can tell, Logan’s dp hit 56F today.

    I was downstairs for a while in our chilly basement, because the heat hasn’t clicked on in around 4 days and when I came back upstairs, I could feel that humidity today.

  44. We need to watch that period from the day the 5-12 for decent snow chances. Doubt anything on the models shows up until we get closer.

  46. The 2 that I kind of keep watching are …..

    Somewhere around March 3rd, a disturbance rounding the base of a then eastern U.S. trof

    and …..

    General 3/6 to 3/10 time frame when disturbances traveling NW to SE from the Great Lakes due to potential blocking may be forced just underneath us.

      1. 🙂 :). This was a remarkable winter break for weather. It’s entirely possible that 7 weeks from now in mid April, the spring break could have cooler weather than the past week.

  48. Good morning.

    Happy to see a couple of posts this morning, because I didn’t as of a few minutes ago.

    The line held together a little better than I thought it would last night. Certainly nothing
    remotely severe. But we managed 0.23 inch here when yesterday afternoon the HRRR
    was showing essentially Zippo.

    Haven’t looked at a model yet.

    Temperature hovering between 40 and 41 here, which will make today yet
    another ABOVE average day. February is averaging very close to 4 degrees above
    average. When the month is over, it will probably be in the 3.5-4 degree range.

    Ocean temperature at Boston Bouy: Water Temperature (WTMP): 42.4 °F

    1. Little something on the GFS around 3/3 to 3/4, a feature that’s been there for a while.

      EURO in the long term shows idea of northern stream system being sent over or just south of us, instead of charging up the st Lawrence River valley.

      1. GFS is pretty much alone for the 3rd feature. Euro is fairly bullish for the 7th and GFS and CMC both have a system nearby.

        The 7th time frame could be quite interesting. We shall see.
        IF we’re going to have any Wintry weather, then let’s get
        Boston ABOVE average for snowfall this Winter.

        Else, keep the Spring weather going.

        No matter how you slice it, there does not appear to be any
        outrageously cold air on the horizon. Colder to be sure, but
        not that bone chilling cold. We’ve got climo working for us now.

        fwiw, Euro has both Wed and Thu of this week into the lower
        60s again across the area. WOW! After that mostly in the 30s.

          1. Yup somewhere right around that figure give or take a few tenths. 😀

            AND that is very doable with just one system and the 7th “could” do it. OF course the planets will
            have to align themselves.

    1. When I was young, I used to put all the shoveled patio snow in one pile and see how long it could last into spring time.

      1. The city does that for us. Since we live on a dead end street,
        the plows much the snow down the street an push it up into
        a gigantic pile at the end of the street. 2 winters ago it was 12
        feet high, 12-15 feet wide and about 20 feet long. Even that Winter it was gone around the end of March or very early April. It did not linger long into the Spring.

        This year not so much, but what was there from our storms is
        completely gone.

    1. Awful. Have driven that road multiple times. It is a spectacularly beautiful area of the world. It seems it is typically feast or famine in CA. Very sad. Thanks for sharing JPD

  52. Some interesting photos out of Conway, MA this morning. Heavy damage to a few structures and trees out that way from storms yesterday. Likely a microburst or possibly a weak tornado. From their Twitter feed, NWS is apparently sending out some trained volunteers to take a look.

    There were several reports of storm damage in western MA, but the damage in Conway looks to be the most significant.

      2. Some photos courtesy of: Mike Beaudreault‎New England Storm Chasers

        https://scontent.fbed1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/16730219_10210237167419991_128970069891980886_n.jpg?oh=e40329034de166ce6500824c810de0f8&oe=592E75D9

        https://scontent.fbed1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/16864787_10210237167459992_7459572032672227539_n.jpg?oh=b4b3583e5aae06341f349db50e4c7027&oe=592DBC9F

        https://scontent.fbed1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/16806709_10210237167499993_6641757052897567276_n.jpg?oh=70e26db77bcf5f1f7921aaf4b7d1169a&oe=59405272

        Based on those, although a micro burst is still possible, I am thinking a tornado. That damage looks like F2 type to me.
        Similar to Revere. What do others think?

        1. Upon closer look, some of that damage is reminiscent
          of Springfield which was an EF3. WOW!

          Shall be most interesting to see the results of the NWS
          survey.

          Has Massachusetts ever experienced a February tornado before?

  53. Those pics look like tornado damage and I would agree with you JPDave this looks like EF2 tornado damage based on the damage to those structures.
    Beginning Tuesday parts of the south Midwest have the potential for severe weather then Wed severe threat goes as far north as Philly.

    1. Sure looks that way to me. But I suppose a really strong micro burst could do it.
      Even so, that crap wrapped around the tree certainly points to tornado. I guess we’ll know this afternoon.

  54. Thunderstorm season just like last February starting early this year. Of course this does not mean were going to have a busy year here in SNE with thunderstorms. Last year the thunderstorms minus the February outbreak were isolated and scattered but where they did hit they hit hard.

  55. This tweet from Eric. JPDave I think this is the answer to your question about Massachusetts experiencing a tornado in Feb.
    FWIW, a tornado has never been recorded in Massachusetts during February (dating to 1950)

    2. Eric FisherVerified account‏@ericfisher 1h1 hour ago
      More
      Eric Fisher Retweeted Eweather
      Possible February tornado in Conway, MA? Or extremely strong straight line winds. NWS is investigating.

  56. Thank you for posting the pics, JPD. Whatever it was, the damage is astonishing.

    I know there was a t storm warning along border. Did it come in that far? As I recall, the one SW to NE didn’t go up that high. I could be 100% wrong and am just wondering. Also, would it be unusual for a tornado…..assuming it is determined to be one….not to be Sen on radar if it does that much damage

    These are just curious questions that popped into my head and in no way intended to be critical

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