Wednesday Forecast

63 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)
Back into a warm air mass today. How much sun will play a role in determining how many record high temperatures are broken and how strong a few waves of showers and thunderstorms are. But it is only the first day of March, and we all know about March. Winter is not over, and we’ll be reminded of that rather quickly in the few days that follow.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms likely. Any storms may be strong, with this favoring areas southwest of Boston. Highs 55-62 South Coast, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 50-58. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Temperatures fall through the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Windy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 22-30. Highs 32-40.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-22. Highs 28-35.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-15. Highs 35-43.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)
Colder during this period with a couple episodes of rain/ice/snow possible.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)
Temperatures near to below normal. Overall trend looks drier.

63 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Thank you TK. Are you still seeing the potential for severe weather in the western MA area thru northern CT and RI?

  2. Thanks TK! Possible severe weather today to a chance of snow on Friday. Classic New England weather!

  3. Thanks, TK…

    Good morning…

    March is certainly coming in like a (ferocious) lion!!!!!!

  4. Can’t recall a March 1st where there was no snow on the ground (not counting the random snow piles still existent)! Pretty amazing stuff

  8. Wind this morning and mild. 55 at my house when I left a little later than usual today,
    about 8:30 AM. Driving in, I noticed all of the sky line downtown shrouded in clouds.
    Creepy looking. Also, walking in from the lot, I noticed that it was pretty windy already.

    I see Boston with a SW wind, but I do not know the exact compass degree.

  10. 12Z NAM still has that clipper with nice looking upper air charts (500,300 and 200mb).
    Fairly robust little bugger. Will it pass just too far South? Looks like it wants to get us, but we shall see as the run gets farther out in time. 😀

    1. Ummm in 3 hours a shift South in the path. Now looks to pass “just” to our South. Still watching. 😀

        2. Not for nothing, but this clipper blows up South of us and off shore a bit.

          Any change in it’s track could bring a moderate snow
          event into SNE.

          Even the GFS has it now, but “just” to our South.

  12. Thanks TK !

    Quite intense right now down in West Virginia, matching up pretty well where the better instability is and headed into an area getting some morning sunshine.

  13. Thanks, TK!

    Southwest wind has featured prominently all winter. Of course not every day and there have been brief interludes during which we didn’t have a southwesterly. But the prevailing theme has been the southwesterly. In some ways, a summer-like pattern. I can tell on my morning run as I am almost always facing a headwind out of the south and southwest as I start out, and then a tail wind as I return home. Needless to say, very different from late January 2015 through March of that year, when the northwesterly was dominant.

  14. That is one interesting looking storm south of Bridgeport, CT …. currently over Long Island sound.

    1. It’s flying along, kind of zig zagging a bit and triangular looking to its south side. I’d be wary of that one if I’m east of it on coastal CT.

  18. Marginal risk expanded a tad south to include parts of northern CT.
    I would take all of SNE and put it in the marginal risk. It is looking like the biggest threat for strong severe storms in Mid Atlantic.

  19. GFS has a series of systems that could give us snow through mid march. Need them to line up just right and hope that there could be some sustained cold to salvage ski season 🙂

  20. Latest HRRR is consistent with NWS discussion and shows NOTHING for most of MA
    After this batch of convection moves through. It is about to enter the Boston area
    now. When done, that is it according to the HRRR.

    Closest bad weather later today is in the NYC area, not up here.

    Does not mean the HRRR is correct, so we shall see.

  21. Some quick precip here – what truly can only be described as a spring shower. Just 0.04 but fun to watch.

  26. You could just tell by looking at the clouds that we were not going to get into any convective activity. The clouds I been seeing all day today usually mean light precipitation if we get anything

    1. The only thing that was changing was a bad model’s forecast. 🙂

      Though we may have a few snow squalls around late Friday!

    1. Cool. Not here that I have seen. Crocuses are up. Will have to investigate tomorrow.

      We have peepers tonight though

  31. signs of spring.
    Buds on all the maples
    red wing blackbirds in the marsh behind my back yard. Saw them a while back. usually see them come in late march,

    1. Indeed, the first returning red-winged blackbirds appeared in the Esplanade Park on February 22nd. That’s very early.

      Many buds (including magnolia’s) appear ready to burst open. Hopefully they won’t before this weekend’s chill.

  32. Did not check the temperature in Boston today, but it didn’t feel like a record-setting day. The feel was 50s like and not 60s. Am I mistaken?

      1. I thought the temp had dropped and then gone back up slightly but figured I was seeing things.

        Thanks Tom

        1. It may well have as you described. Probably will hold steady til after midnight, which technically will give many locations a high temp of close to or just above 60F for tomorrow as well, even though it will be somewhat chilly by tomorrow afternoon.

  34. Logan is now 62F as of 10:00 pm obs. According to Pete on NBC Boston, temps will continue to rise overnight so the record is still very much within reach.

    1. Today’s record is 63F (1991).

      Tomorrow’s record is 66F (2004)…an outside shot of a tie, but likely just shy.

  35. You all can keep looking at all of these severe weather parameters right through the spring and summer. I ignore most of them and use just a few of the old school ones, and it seems to work out just fine. (right TK?) Just because all of this info is out there doesn’t mean its useful.

    I’ve said this a million times in the past, and I’ll keep saying it (and I know that TK agrees 100%): I’m glad I learned how to forecast when I did (25+ years ago), and not today. Back then, we actually had to learn what was going on in the atmosphere and understand why it was doing whatever it was, not just read the models as most people do today.

    1. I can’t remember the last time I seriously looked at a modeled parameter for severe weather other than a quick glance.

      I rely on the method learned long ago. And that is what I used today to downplay the situation considerably.

      In fact I use the models less now than I did 5, 10, and 15 years ago…

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