Thursday Forecast

74 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 2-6)
Cold front exits first thing this morning. This 2nd day of March will deliver plenty of wind and send the temperature down. This downward trend will continue Friday as a disturbances passes south of the region but a secondary cold front brings a few snow showers/squalls and a shot of some of the coldest air of the winter, relatively speaking, which will last for a good portion of the coming weekend before easing up by the start of next week. The cold air will spill down on the east side of a high pressure area which will finally come across the region later Sunday then start to move off to the east. This will allow the approach of a warm front which should bring increasing clouds by Monday.
TODAY: Partly cloudy through mid morning. Mostly sunny thereafter. Temperatures fall through the 40s into the 30s. Wind W 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers and possible snow squalls developing during the afternoon. Highs 30-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Lows 10-18 except 18-23 immediate coastal areas. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing somewhat.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 25-33. Wind NW 10-20 MPH shifting to N.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-15 except 15-20 coastal areas and urban centers. Highs 33-40.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-33. Highs 35-43.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 7-11)
Temperatures near to below normal. A couple episodes of rain/ice/snow possible.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 12-16)
Temperatures near to below normal. Mostly dry weather expected.

74 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  6. Are those snow squalls to the west of here going to get as far east as Sudbury and the Boston area? If so, any idea when?

    1. If they do hold together, I think they will bump into air that has NOT
      yet been cooled enough for snow and they will be RAIN showers.

      We shall see. 😀

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    What a beautiful morning, a tad windy, but not bad around here.
    Although the temperature is cooler, it is what I call a comfortable cool.
    When I awoke it was 47 at my house. By the time I left for work, it was up to 51.

    Now I know it is often the case that the cold lags behind some, so despite a slight
    temperature rise, I suspect the temperature will start to slowly coast downwards.

    Honestly, I don’t need the cold now. I am ready For SPRING as others have stated as well.

    1. Earlier from the NWS:

      An arctic cold front will be dropping down from the northwest during
      the late afternoon/early evening hours. Very steep 0 to 3 km lapse
      rates near 10C/KM, some low level convergence, and total totals
      rising into the 50s will bring the risk for a few localized brief
      heavy snow squalls with this front. Several of our mesoscale models
      show this potential in their various radar simulations. The biggest
      limiting factor will be the lack of low level moisture…so it is
      uncertain if they will be able to develop or we end up just with a
      few brief snow showers. However, the potential for an impact on the
      evening rush hour exists with the potential for briefly poor
      visibility/roads quickly becoming snow covered if any squalls are
      able to develop.

  9. Potentially bad news from the sports world. David Price has injured his elbow and seeking a second opinion from James Andrews. Might be Tommy John surgery incoming.

        1. True.

          Without him the rotation would be:

          1. Chris Sale
          2. Rick Porcello
          3. Steven Wright
          4. Eduardo Rodriguez
          5. Dean Pomeranz

          You can switch around any or all of the 3-5, but you get the idea.

          They’ll be fine with that rotation. The Sox actually have
          depth at starting pitching, something most teams do not have. 😀

          In fact, I’d argue that the Sox would be BETTER without Price than with him.

  10. Thank you, TK.

    Wind is awesome. Was out for a bit trying to clamp down top of recycling bin and putting furniture back where I would like it on deck before Mother Nature rearranges it again. It sounds as if a freight train is coming through the woods and over the hill behind our house.

    Lots of crocuses out and the stop of the hyacynth’s are just showing. No sign of the daffodils and too soon for the tulips. I loved listening to the peepers last night.

  11. I recall Todd using the term Windex. I believe it was one of the “Todd” definitions on his weather spotters website. I was just looking for the website content for other “Todd” definitions, but it is never was switched to my new computer.

      1. Nope …remember I knew Todd and was part of the fallout when he left. I doubt he coined a lot of what he used

    1. HA HA HA!!!!

      Is that what will be falling from the sky tomorrow????

      Seriously, what are the chances of snow squalls?

      50-50?

      NWS indicated that low level moisture “could” be a limiting factor.

      To me, that is their built in excuse in case they don’t materialize. 😀
      ahh, maybe that is a little harsh, but you know what I mean.

      It’s a little more than 24 hours away. I would love it if we can say
      definitively YES there WILL be snow squalls or NO, there will NOT be snow
      squalls. I HATE the uncertainty.

      Might as well say there is a chance of an 8.0 earthquake across the area
      tomorrow OR a monster tsunami. 😀 😀 😀

  15. I get the idea that the medium and long range keep resetting as far as featuring somewhat of a folder pattern.

    Now the long range NAO projections seem neutral or slightly positive and though there are colder shots of air, they seem to get interrupted with occasional systems tracking north of west of us.

    The wind is loud against the windows today. The lights in school flickered at one point.

      1. I was going to say, nothing like the good ole FOLDER pattern. 😀

        And I agree. Other than some brief colder interludes, it looks like
        a continuation of an overall MILDER pattern. Fine with me!

        BRING ON SPRING!!!

  16. In the FWIW department, I just looked at the 12z Euro for tomorrow.
    Very steep lapse rates and Total Totals of 52-56, thus very much supporting
    a WINDEX situation. Will there be snow squalls or Not tomorrow? That is the big question.

  17. 12Z Euro shows a front end thump of snow prior to going over to rain
    on the 11-12th. I wonder IF this is our last and final chance????

  18. Hopefully the front end thump of snow will happen on the 12th if it happens at all.. I got tickets to the Big East Championship game in NYC on Saturday the 11th.

    1. It’s nearly 10 days out, so I wouldn’t worry about it. 😀

      Probably be a potent Lakes Cutter anyway.

      1. I’ve been amazed with how little ice there is on the Great Lakes, but maybe that can help a bit with the one variable that is most lacking tomorrow, moisture.

  21. I’m grateful for the more normal feel of the air late this afternoon and will relish the coming few days as this may be it in terms of cold, fresh air this season (slim pickings in 2017; different story in 2015, as TK stated above).

  22. I can tell you with the warmth we just had people are for sure thinking ahead as I’ve literally received about 15 calls for jobs since Saturday, crazy.

    1. They always do that, and it’s usually too early. 😉

      If they haven’t learned that yet, they never will. 😛

      1. Agree . It was mostly people wanting an official booking . Right now April and may fully booked & that’s not even counting my regular customers these are all new . Most of the work now is debris removal . Hoping for a better bruins game Saturday as my son & I will be going .

          1. It sure has Vicki . This week it’s been like 3 calls a day since Saturday . All but one call were from new customers. I get a ton of debris removal jobs . Im in the process of buying a new trailor and my carpenter is going to build it up .

      2. We signed with a lawn service two days ago. I’m looking now for someone to do spring cleanup. If you don’t book now, you are in trouble. They don’t start for a month or, in our case, late April.

        1. Yea I’m telling my customers not till April as it’s to early and like I said they just want to hire & book. I may have a yard clean up this month because potential customers will be selling there house and listing it 4/1 so want good pictures.

  23. Boston has a decent shot at setting a record low maximum temp on Saturday. The record is 21. They may stay below that.

  24. We’re also going to be snow-vulnerable for 1 or 2 periods of time during mid March I believe. Something to keep an eye on. Overall pattern, as expected, will be dry. I think the drought will regain some ground again in the weeks ahead. May be a very nasty fire season.

    1. Just keep it away from the east coast the week of March 21st. We are driving to South Carolina to attend my step daughter’s Army Basic Training graduation.

      1. Oh, Sue, you will have several here stowing away when they hear that. I’m so excited for you!!!!

      1. Starting in May.

        Not changing a thing on the long range.

        It was based on a flip from La Nina to El Nino originally. That’s coming. 🙂

  25. A few thoughts –

    A) Boston will break its record low temp Saturday night.

    B) March 11-12 for a snow event does not impress me. But a 5-10 days or so later there maybe some shots of winter left.

    C) Post March 25th or so we get dry and stay dry maybe until June when a humid and summer showers (downpours at times?) type pattern becomes more predominate

    1. Hi there!

      A) I agree this is very possible.
      B) The set-up somewhere in the March 15-25 window is interesting.
      C) My issue with long range is I tend to go for big changes too early. So perhaps my wetter turn in May is a little soon? I was thinking a 2nd half of May turn to wet and then a very showery/humid but warm pattern for the summer. Of course a few wildcards still out there.

  27. I have fairly high confidence in some potent squalls out there later today. Some of the short range guidance suggests N. MA and S. NH will be the favored areas, but the risk will exist everywhere. Timing wise, probably moving into eastern MA and the Boston area around 7-8PM. Bitter cold behind it, likely the most impressive cold shot since December.

    1. I’m not looking forward to this cold shot, as I was freezing already this morning. After this winter, 27F feels like 5F. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. Let’s see.

      Some earlier HRRR nailed us. Later ones not so much.
      I’ll bet the short rang Hi-res guidance will get a really good handle
      starting around 1 or 2 PM today.

  28. Good morning….AHHHH So refreshing today. Absolutely beautiful day, even if
    a tad cool. I didn’t mind it one bit, in fact I liked it. Tomorrow? Probably not as tomorrow will be too cold and for March outrageously cold. Oh well, it won’t last long.

    We’re going out to dinner tomorrow night and my wife is dreading going out in
    that cold.

  29. This morning’s NWS discussion:

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…

    *** Locally heavy snow squalls possible between 5 and 10 pm this
    evening ***

    710 am update…

    Current forecast in good shape and only changes were to
    increase pops for brief scattered snow showers and the
    potential for localized heavy snow squalls between 5 and 10 pm
    this evening. These mesoscale type of scenarios are always very
    tricky to forecast. The one thing we have noted is that the
    NAM/GFS depict a meso low off the coast with a brief inverted
    trough hanging back into central/eastern MA…which is evident
    in the low level moisture fields. Other guidance, keeps that
    axis offshore. Either way will have to watch this area closely
    as there is a low risk for an inch or so of snow if that brief
    inverted trough adds to the convergence.

    I noticed this mesoscale feature on one of the runs last night. I don’t remember which one.

  30. NOW THIS IS MORE LIKE IT!!! 😀 😀 Now only if we could keep it for a while. I have a feeling its gonna be a bad allergy season.

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