Friday Forecast

157 Comments

4:00PM

Apologies for late update. Technical issue and scheduling prevented the usual morning one.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 10-14)
Lots going on, so we’ll do this quickly. First, we have one wave of low pressure passing to the south and this has produced snow across southern New England today with the most significant accumulations near the South Coast including Cape Cod. In addition, a disturbance moving in from the west has kicked off some moderate snow showers over eastern MA early to mid afternoon. Additional snow showers and possibly a squall will occur through evening until the leading edge of Arctic air arrives from the northwest. This sets up a dry but very cold weekend, the second such weekend in a row. Next we look head to the storm threat for Tuesday. There is still a spread among the guidance and this system is far enough away that I do not feel confident saying any more than there is a potential for a significant storm. Several solutions remain on the table and as the weekend goes on this will be focused and fine-tuned so that by Sunday there should be a good handle on it.
REMAINDER OF TODAY: Snow ends southeast but scattered snow showers anywhere. Temperatures in the 30s. Wind light NE to N.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with scattered snow showers and isolated snow squalls before midnight, with briefly low visibility and quick coatings of snow along with a freeze-up of existing road moisture will result in hazardous travel. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 10-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 10.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill 10 or below at times.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 3-15, coldest interior areas, mildest coast and urban centers. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill 0 or below at times.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-30. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 15 at times.
MONDAY: Sun to clouds. Lows 10-18. Highs 33-40.
TUESDAY: Storm likely – details to come. Lows 25-35. Highs 30-40.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 15-19)
Active pattern with lingering mix/snow possible March 15, and another chance of unsettled weather around March 17-18. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYA 11-15 (MARCH 20-24)
Active pattern continues with yet another risk of storminess during this time. Temperatures near to below normal.

157 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Why, yes I was.

    Snow today–snowed all day in Milton but didn’t seem to be amounting to anything. I decided to walk in–I live only a few blocks from the school and frankly, it takes longer to clean off the car than to walk home. But, during my 10 minute walk, there were big fat flakes and everything–sidewalks and roads were snow covered. But now it looks like the roads are no longer covered. Where did it go?

  3. Sitting here talking to myself. I forgot to say thanks, TK. Just looked at the earlier blog, Vicki–what no eggs?

  5. It’s snowing here in Merrimack, NH, but I see blue sky, as well. Dunno what it’s doing at home in MA though.

  7. I’m sitting here talking to Deb and forgot to say thank you, TK.

    I actually would not have known it was a new blog had Deb not mentioned it so she gets all the credit!

    1. Oh no, I can’t get any credit for saying it was a new blog. Because truth be told, I was looking for the comments and then realized there were none.

      1. If it were not for you, the two of us could have wandered around aimlessly for hours 🙂 🙂

  9. 4PM Observation from Logan

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.36056N 71.01056W

    Last Updated: Mar 10 2017, 3:54 pm EST
    Fri, 10 Mar 2017 15:54:00 -0500
    Weather: Heavy Snow Freezing Fog
    Temperature: 29.0 °F (-1.7 °C)
    Dewpoint: 28.0 °F (-2.2 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 96 %
    Wind: North at 3.5 MPH (3 KT)
    Visibility: 0.13 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1006.1 mb
    Altimeter: 29.71 in Hg

    1. I wonder what today’s snow total will be at the airport.
      How much closer to the average seasonal snowfall did we get?

      1. umass had about another half inch on the ground and snowing hard. stuff from morning melted. so im thinking around 1inch

  10. The graphic channel 4 is running with saying historic potential means grocery shopping will be terrible all weekend.

  11. What are totals along the south shore? I may have missed someone posting them and apologize if so.

  12. I’m probably a CRAPPY analyst, but I am liking the looks of the 18Z GFS a little
    better than this morning’s 12Z run. I’m sure I’ll be proven wrong in a few more frames. 😀

    1. Definitely looking better. Trough doesn’t sharpen as quickly. Should keep storm
      a little more to the East. Enough to keep it snow in Boston? Not sure yet.
      Should be enough to at least keep it snow longer.

  13. SNOW is done here. Perhaps a remaining brief shower or flurry, but that looks to
    be it unless some squalls erupt in the arctic air.

  14. I am practicing to be a TV Met.

    Tuesday has the potential to feature a brutal Nor’easter with blockbuster potential. Millions in path. Unspeakable devastation are caused by storms like this. Thousands of homes could be without power.

    Notice that I never said it was actually going to happen. How am I doing?

  15. Out to 96 hours. Seems to be more East at least by some.
    I need to leave shortly. Hope it is out far enough.

    We are seeing Passenger at the House of Blues tonight.

    The band is awesome!

  18. I am still looking for a model that forecasts HHH for Tuesday. I know there is one out there.

  21. I don’t know how these figures compare, but I measured 2.5 inches here
    when I got home.

    AND it is snowing again here.

    Some really heavy duty stuff out by Lowell.

  22. Getting ready to go see Passenger at the House Of Blues. Opening act comes on at 8 and Passenger around 9PM. So nice to be less than 10 minutes from that venue. 😀

    I will certainly be the oldest patron tonight or at least very highly likely.
    I don’t give a crap, I like what I like and that goes double for my wife. 😀

    1. Or should I say 60 with 70 just off shore. Hard to read those maps as there is so much information on them.

    1. BLASPHEMY!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

      It has better not. If so, I’m headed to Europe and give those chaps a piece
      of my mind or several! 😀

  27. The batch of snow is just about done. Last lonely flakes coming down now.

    Will the next batch make it? Seems to be intensifying some and expanding.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.3282608695652174&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=523.3774834437086&centery=442.5827814569536&transx=123.37748344370857&transy=202.58278145695363&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24819882&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  31. Actually on further evaluation NAM at 84 hrs looks different than GFS. NAM has system a little more East and south. Also NAM pummels D.C whereas GFS had a lot of rain and mix.

    2. Also, high pressure, by the isobars, looks to be bridged to our north. Even a non benchmark track, in my opinion, is going to be running into a decent dome of cold air. As long as the column stays cool enough, the ocean won’t be adding a ton of warmth to the boundary layer. Funny too, that GFS track probably wouldn’t offer much rain because even if the column warms, the dry slot would probably shut the precip off.

      Overall, I favor something a bit further offshore than the GFS.

  33. Compare the 108 hr, 500 mb map of the new 00z GFS to the 120 hr, 500 mb map of today’s 12z EURO.

    Euro : 2 separate packages of energy which I’m guessing allows a more offshore track. GFS : 1 better phased packet of energy, tugging the sfc low closer to the coast.

    Which will be right ? Maybe neither and it ends up somewhere in the middle ?

  34. Snowing pretty heavily near boston college area. Impressive but thick band of snow? What is causing those tk? Seems to me training over the same spot instead of a snow squall

    2. northwest flow I believe with cold air filtering in with the warm air lifting.Cold air can not hold as much moisture as warm air so the atmosphere is releasing moisture.

  35. Hello.

    Passenger concert was truly phenomenal. Totally awesome like I have never seen before.
    They played for 1 hour and 45 minutes!!

    We we exited onto to Landsdown Street it was snowing like hell. All the way home, nearly white out conditions. I got home in time to see the weather. We watched channel 5 expecting to see Harvey and got the Wank master. He called the snow snow squalls. I don’t think so. This is some sort of band of conversion of some sort.

    The things have been going for 2 1/2 hours off and on as there are little bends
    in the line. It’s nearly 1 in the morning and they are still out there in a narrow band stretching NW to SE.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.4&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=370&centery=330&transx=-30&transy=90&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24820187&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    I don’t think the inverted trough would last this long, but perhaps that is exactly
    what is causing this. I really don’t think they are ordinary snow squalls.

    1. I have never seen anything like this before. Almost looks like a Lake Effect
      streamer. I am totally fascinated.

      TK I am hoping you can provide an excellent and educational explanation.
      A TV Met just saying snow squalls is NOT adequate in my opinion.
      There is SOMETHING going on here. AND it is NOT showing on the HRRR!

  36. GFS and NAM blow chunks! I am pissed off at both of them!

    0Z CMC is close to a benchmark, but keeps heaviest axis of snow just off shore.

    What will the Euro say? Geez I am so close, but I am very tired. Don’t think I can stay up for it.

  37. The Canadian just does not make sense to me., None. It has a Gulf Wave rapidly deepen near the Carolinas, then weaken and lose a good chunk of its moisture as it nears the benchmark, only to strengthen again in the Gulf of Maine? Sorry, not buying that in the least.

  38. 0Z Euro certainly closer to the coast, but I think staying out there just enough to keep
    the snow in here. I’ll review all my service charts in AM. Hitting the hay, knowing it
    still looks good. I imagine the snow charts will be prolific. We shall see.

    1. The 102-hour panel has a 978mb low centered over Harwich, changing the snow to rain across the Cape. It then heads into the Gulf of Maine, gets caught by the upper-low, and pulled northwest and then west. On the 120-hour, it’s up to 991mb, and centered near Fryeburg, ME. By the 126 hour, what’s left of it has jumped back into the Gulf of Maine and is heading out.

      Oh, and it still has 10-20″+ for everywhere north and west of the Canal.

  39. I wonder if in the next 24 to 48 hrs, a possible trend will be for the 500mb feature to capture the surface low a bit earlier? Instead of it occurring just after it passes our latitude, imagine if it does that a bit earlier just south of New England ?

      1. I’m not sure of the exact details, but imagine if what SAK describes above takes place just south of us instead of up in Maine. I’d think it would offer the chance at staying in precip even longer.

  42. I believe it was last Saturday morning the 0z EURO was showing a potential coastal low on the 13h of March.

  43. Good morning.

    The snow didn’t quite until well into the early morning. Snowed enough around here for
    the plows to be out. My Street was plowed at 4Am, I know because it woke me up and I looked out the window. 😀

    Re: Tuesday’s event
    The 6Z GFS is perhaps a few miles East of the Euro even. It is really almost
    perfect.

    Here are a couple of zoomed in charts

    Surface from College of DuPage

    http://imgur.com/a/BZEjz

    Surface from Pivotal Weather

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031106/090/sfcwind_mslp.us_ne.png

    Kuchera Snow from Pivotal Weather

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031106/150/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    It seems like the system is getting less powerful by the run.

    But a foot of snow ain’t too shaby, eh?

      1. Out of this World. Unbelievable!! We had a great time!
        Was able to park in a garage next door. We got there at about 8:30 and Passenger came on about 9:05 PM. Perfect.

        They played until 10:45.

        Thank you for asking.

  44. While we wait for the next round of runs let’s just throw out there that the patriots are dialing up #6

        1. OH, you mean Super Bowl # 6 for them.

          I thought you meant a player because you said dialing up.

          I can’t believe the free agent signing of Stephon Gilmore and the trade for Brandin Cooks. IF (big if I know) they can keep Butler, they will be in great shape!

          They didn’t keep Bennet, but they did pick up Dwayn Allen. With him and a healthy Gronk to go along with
          everything else, they should be on track!

          1. If gronk can stay healthy. And I didn’t know what #6 was either. Thought it was a player Thanks retrac for explaining

  45. Good morning, everyone!

    As of now, the GFS has the storm at 985 mb and the Euro at 982 mb at approximately the same time.

    What would that translate into wind speed and gusts for the storm?

    Enjoy a pleasant weekend all.

    Thanks, as always, TK!!!

  46. Good,morning. Thanks for the discussion all.

    If it stays snow, I’d love to see a blockbuster. This from the person who was ready to sit out on the deck a few days ago. You cannot take the snow lover out of a person, I think. Or is it the kid? I think it was ocean who said that so aptly….I apologize if im recalling incorrectly. Sorry Deb. But I will call the school and plead your case. I promise.

        1. Let’s just say as of the latest runs, it looks like it will
          fall far short of historic. 😀 It is very difficult to out
          all of the proper ingredients together to deliver an Historic Snow Storm. Very difficult indeed. That’s why you don’t see them every day. 😀

          Be happy with a 12 inch snow event. Pretty decent imho.

  47. If no one minds, here is another Passenger tune thye performed last night.
    This is his official video, but I am here to tell you that with his full band last
    night the live version was much better than this and this is pretty damn good.
    Fyi: This video was shot in LA. Looks likeat a Hollywood movie lot.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4WKh5UqtXc

      1. Truly awesome! Way beyond expectation!
        With my wife’s back issue, we were concerned about logistics, parking etc. I dropped her at the door circled the block and parked the car in a lot next door. We timed it to mostly just get passenger and not the opening act. We caught 2 tunes from opening act and shortly thereafter passenger came on.

        Excellent, excellent performance. They are REALLY good.
        In addition the main man, Michael Rosenberg, his band is
        phenomenal! Fantastic musicians!

        We exited, is was snowing like hell! Near white out conditions driving home with very snow covered roads, but we are only
        10 minutes away, so no big deal. 😀

        Thank you for asking.

    1. Yep a tad. I’m surprised the snow from yesterday is blowing……it had a lot of moisture in it. Assume moisture went by the way with colder temps. Flag across the street has been straight out all morning

  50. Good morning! No real changes that I see to the potentials since yesterday. By the 0z runs tonight, we should start to have better sampling of the northern stream piece, so I would say that cycle is the first one to really pay attention to for surface features. We should also be getting more data on the southern stream piece and its environment into the models by tonight/early tomorrow from aircraft reconaissance missions, which are scheduled to begin tonight (like the hurricane hunters, but for a winter storm). By tomorrow, it’ll be time to give first numbers, and refine things from there. A lot of options still on the table.

    And boy is it cold out there! -2 here in Plymouth, NH with wind chills close to -20. Mt. Washington with winds chills in the -8o to -90 bracket this morning. That’ll wake you up…

    1. Thanks.

      Cold and windy here, but NOT that cold. Down to 10 at my house this AM.

      NWS agrees that tonight’s 0Z runs should really zero in on the solution.

      NWS favors a track over Nantucket. I’d be find with that. Because they favor it, does NOT mean that will be the track. 😀

  53. Beautiful morning. In spite of only a few inches of snow the wind was causing some drifting on the Esplanade paths, sculpting what looked like small snow dunes.

    Just like last week not a sign of the red-winged blackbirds. They might be reconsidering their migration a few weeks ago. Then, it was balmy and spring-like. Now, it’s more like Labrador.

    I’m headed to an even colder place today: Vermont.

  54. 12z NAM is BRUTAL. REALLY HUGS the coast and closes off 500MB at 12Z Tuesday.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017031112&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=072

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017031112&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=072

    Closes off 300mb

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017031112&var=GRDHGT_300mb&hour=072

    And 200mb (I don’t recall seeing that very often)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017031112&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=072

  55. NAM at 84 hours blah

    I am all in for a pretty powerhouse storm. Mixing will be an issue on the south coast imo. Widespread 12-18+ inches will be common. Tonight’s runs will be interesting for sure.

    1. I thought he was going to cover this song of the same title. 😀

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzfQY-CWJrI

      I don’t know Chris Stapelton. I think I may have seen him once when we clicked by a CMA awards show? (did he win an award recently?) Generally, I don’t care for country, but there are some artists that I think are OK. Depends on their style. I’d have to check out some more tunes by him.

      Thanks for sharing.

            1. I lurked for too long, figured I would actually comment. I check the blog daily and have done so for years now. You rule.

  58. Adding coffee fuel and I’ll be on the new blog shortly.

    Don’t look for a ton of detail for Tuesday yet. I’m going to do that tomorrow in a very comprehensive post and hopefully nearly final call.

  59. Tweet from Bernie this morning:

    great set-up. S piece in right location.N trof a little far W for me,but it has a negative tilt to guide up cst.Mixing to i-95, THUMP just W

  60. You can send me all of the observations and data you want but there is no colder place on earth in nature or in manmade freezers colder than the north side of my yard right now.

  64. Gfs doesn’t show as much snow as before anywhere ( such as 2 feet) I wonder why thar is? Storm looks to be same intensity as before I think? Maybe more of a progressive storm than expected? Regardless, I am still happy with a foot of snow!

  65. The Canadian model is similar to the GFS now as well with a track just east of the Cape and makes a lot more sense than the 00z run did.

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