Saturday Forecast

358 Comments

11:42AM

REVIEW OF FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY
Yesterday was an interesting weather day. First, we had low pressure, fairly weak, moving out just south of New England, but with enough moisture to wring out of the atmosphere for 4-8 inches of snow across portions of the South Coast and Cape Cod. Amounts did drop off fairly drastically to the north and much of the snow either failed to stick or melted after it fell due to the thinner overcast and higher sun angle at this time of year. During the afternoon, some instability arrived from the west ahead of an arctic cold front. This kicked off some moderate to locally heavy snow showers in parts of NH and MA. Eventually, a convergence zone (a line, similar to a front, where air from 2 different directions meets and has nowhere to go but up) set up stretching from VT into eastern MA. Along this line, a very narrow but at times heavy band of snow was fairly persistent from mid evening into the overnight hours. Those underneath this band saw anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of additional snowfall, while a couple miles either side of the line saw little or no additional snow. I experienced being under this band where I was for about 3 hours and then drove home after 1:30AM into an area that had very little. The drop off from nearly 3 inches to about 1/2 inch was very sharp as I saw in my short drive. After the snow band pushed away to the southwest, it was amazing to hear the howling wind, see what little snow I did have blowing around, and the clouds and nearly full moon in the southwest sky at 3AM.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 11-15)
Now to the forecast. I’ll say right away that I am not nearly ready to give too many details on storm track and snow amounts for the Tuesday/Wednesday storm. There is just too much uncertainty on the table still and as usual a situation where a shift in storm track by mere miles can make a huge difference in the amount of snow a particular location sees. So there will be a lot of fine-tuning to be done through tomorrow. What I do know is that we are pretty likely to see a classic set-up regarding East Coast storm development, really the first one we have had just like this during this season. That spells out major storm. But “major storm” does not automatically mean huge snow amounts, or the strongest winds, etc., in any particular area. We need to take time to get this as accurate as possible. I won’t know these details until Sunday, and even then there will be some uncertainty. So for now, we’ll just say it looks like there will be a major storm Tuesday ending Wednesday. Before that, it’s just dry and cold, especially this weekend, which will remind you of last weekend with gusty wind and a January feel. Some records may fall, both for low temperatures and for low maximum temperatures. Forecast details for southeastern New England…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 18-25. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-45 MPH. Wind chill near to below 0 at times.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 0-6 interior, 7-12 coast. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts over 25 MPH. Wind chill often below 0.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusting 25-35 MPH. Wind chill near 0 at times.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 5-10 interior, 10-15 coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunshine eventually filtered by high clouds. Highs 30-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Storm, day 1 – snow/wind, may mix/rain at the coast depending on track. Lows 20-28. Highs 30-40.
WEDNESDAY: Storm, day 2 – lingering snow likely. Lows 20-28. Highs 30-40.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 16-20)
Active pattern. Current timing suggest a storm threat around March 18-19. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-5 (MARCH 21-25)
“Spring” arrives but that does not always mean “spring weather”. Additional storminess may occur during this period and it may be cold enough for some mix/snow.

358 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. I know everyone is abuzz about the Tuesday storm but in the here and now I’m worried about how the record lows are going affect local agriculture. From a stretch of record highs to record lows. It can’t be good.

    1. it is not good at all
      my rose bushes are starting to suck up water so is my hydrangeas. I have heat lamps and tarps over my gardens

      1. Hydrangea question. As you know last year was first summer here. We have three large hydrangeas. We were told not to remove rhe “sticks” as they would provide buds. They didn’t and I didn’t think they would as they were quite dead. Now sticks are still there but there are new, healthy looking “sticks” with buds in them. Do we pull old ones from last year out or leave them? Thanks Matt. Or anyone who can help

        2. If they are black they are dead just like any other flowering bush. If they are brown and start showing green lines in the stems they will grow leaves and buds. you should see the start of bud like features on the sticks forming which are where the leaves will come out.

  3. Thank you tk and thank you for setting the record straigh
    On the so-called snow squalls laSr night and early this am. I knew they were not classic snow squalls.

      2. Read this in the voice of an inner-city British chav. “U was ready to strangle wankum wassnt ya? Hook em right in the gabber.”

  4. Pure arctic air, as we are in mid march with 100% sunshine and temps in the teens. Pretty remarkable.

  6. Thanks TK. I gotta say, the 12z guidance so far is just textbook gorgeous for a major winter storm this week. Not unprecedented, historic, devastating, etc., but a really strong, classic Nor’easter. The little kid in me definitely wants to see something like this play out. However, it is still too early to have high confidence. We’re playing the waiting game for awhile yet.

    And by tomorrow, when it comes to the models, we’ll be playing the waiting game for an hour longer; don’t forget to spring forward tonight! That also means all model data comes in an hour later starting tomorrow.

    2. Yes, that guidance depicts classic scenario. I say odds of this occurring as depicted are about 60%. I’m not sold until that other piece of energy way far away enters the stadium. 😉

    2. Word to the those who love to forecast snowfall avoid Kuchera maps with March storms especially if the 0c line is anywhere near SNE… You will better off using classic 10:1 and then making slight adjustments based on climatology, time of day, intensity.

      Going to look at afternoon suite and then make a guess as to what will happen. After that, I will be thinking of you all from the white sand of the Virgin Islands

  8. 15 at Logan at noon. 22 is the record for lowest high today from 1874. The strength of this cold is amazing for mid-March after 60 Wed. Got to love New England.

  10. And just when we thought we were getting consensus… 12z Euro is in with a rather significant jump east. My “bust” concern all along has been OTS. That’s not what this run is, it’s still a decent hit for eastern areas, but any trend east is not your friend IMO if you’re looking for snow.

  13. Re: 12z ECMWF…

    Concern along the way here along with the other uncertainties is that this system may end up more stretched. This is a step in this direction, but not entirely. The ECMWF keeps the system strong but more progressive. The “stretch” is really more of a separation between the initial strong surface feature and a lagging 500mb low that would take all of Wednesday to get by here. It’s not even out of the question that SOME locations could get more snow from that upper level feature than they do from the initial surface low – again this ASSUMING that this solution is reasonable. We’re not there yet.

    1. Reminds me of a setup in 2015 where the upper level feature slammed us more than the first piece.

      1. Yes. It’s happened a good number of times. I think we had 2 in a row like that in April 1996. I’d have to look that up, but I seem to remember 2 snow events of the 5-10 inch type that initially looked like much less but it just kept coming thanks to the upper.

  16. Tweet from NWS Boston.

    Snow lovers lets be kind to snow haters, you may become the latter especially if NEXT weekends hinted storm becomes a reality.

    1. Well, that’s one way to look way beyond where they should and start fueling the hype train for a mult-stop, long-distance trip.

      3. Puke inducing tweet and not because I hate snow. How about dealing with the first sytem, seeing what its impact on the post system climatic set up is and then making a more informed statement on your official social media page?

    1. Thanks Mark. I was getting around to posting that.

      I am disappointed in that Euro run, but hey, what are we to do. It’s going to do what it is going to do?

      0Z runs anyone?

  18. Ok here goes my best early theory.

    12z ECMWF shifted east dropping total precip by 50% springfield 40% Worcester and about 33% Boston. Also began to hint at what myself and others have been hinting at 2 separate pieces of energy.

    I think the first piece of energy impacts daytime Tuesday. However intensity western areas could be less than prognosticated. Temps in upper 20’s -30 and no 6 hour period with more than .25 of Q during mid march will lessen the impact there. Boston area will see greater intensity, but probably the most intense, will be afternoon on Tuesday but temps will be 30-35. Again lessening the impact when bands are not as intense. Then the wild card comes in. I believe a 2nd wave of energy will come through daytime Wednesday. Temps will be colder, holding in the low-mid 20’s many places. This west to east deformation zone / closed mid and upper level low will create moderate periods to even heavy bursts of snow and orographically favored and east facing hilly areas in particular could be looking decent accumulations from this feature. Additionally there may be a mesoscale convergence area that could add moderate accumulations of snow in eastern areas.

    Don’t take precip amounts and converted snowfall totals verbatim.

    A) First wave of energy Tuesday, less impact than anticipated.

    B) Second wave of enery Wednesday, greater impact than anticipated.

    Snow for everyone. Reasonable Confidence in 6″ plus, some areas up to 15″ but for now how about a region wide average 8-12″ over a 36 hour period. I am only throwing out amounts because I am going to be gone. I will review myself in 8 days….

    1. Thank you JMA for putting that together. Enjoy your time in the sun!

      Very interesting discussion and much appreciated.

    2. If my current thinking is similar tomorrow morning, then you’ve basically written my Sunday blog regarding this system already. And without a consulting fee! Thanks. 🙂

      1. I anticipate some model shifting back and forth and the various ENS means will be slow to catch up, but believe we are on track and meteorology will out perform modeology.

        No fee. Thanks for the gift of sharing.

        Off to the airport.

        1. Wish I was good enough to predict that. But I’d venture to bet a lot of places miss 2 days regardless of the weather, probably because the decision will be made either Sunday night or early Monday. 😉

  21. Quite cold in Vermont. Gray skies – looks like it may be snowing on the western-facing Green Mountains. This said, Boston has more snow than the town I am in in Vermont. In fact, most of the stretch of I-89 through New Hampshire had very little snow. Exception was the higher elevations, but even there it was fairly minimal. It’s unusual in March that Boston has more snow on the ground than Norwich, Vermont.

  22. Joshua, I was up at Okemo skiing with my son yesterday. Saw the same thing in Ludlow, not much snow on the ground, at least outside of wooded areas. In fact, pretty much everywhere north of Northampton, MA on I-91 on the way up did not receive any snow from yesterday’s system.

    There was still good coverage and base though on the mountain itself with few bare spots. Okemo had 96 of 125 trails open with decent frz granular/machine groomed conditions. With the cold weather and several potential snow threats over the next few weeks, there should be some good late season skiing this year in NNE.

    1. This is true. The temps are good for making snow. And I did notice the higher elevations still had some reasonable snow coverage. They should do well with the coastal system next week. I believe the system will be big enough to be a snow maker in much of New England, not just the Eastern and coastal region.

      1. Brother said they have had a tough time with the warmup and then cool down. Also some mountains closed with the wind…or at least closed upper mountain lifts.

        Have a good time, Joshua. Sure is a beautiful area

  23. Speaking of skiing, I was out in Utah last weekend for a short trip and got to ski a couple days at Snowbird and Alta. They have had a great year for snow out there, pushing 460″ on the season and an average base of 145″ on the mountain. The short 25 minute drive from Salt Lake up Little Cottonwood Canyon to the ski areas always amazes me as you go from 60 degree weather and bare ground in the valley to literally feet of snow on the ground over a stretch of only 2-3 miles. I will post some pictures later today or tomorrow when I get a chance!

    1. Sounds awesome!

      I’ve only be to Salt Lake once and that was to change planes coming home
      from Las Vegas.

    1. Those does look great.

      What does this mean when the majority of ensemble members
      show a different outcome like that?

      Although it might favor the ensemble mean solution over the operational, but
      it certainly does not guarantee the outcome.

      Another question: We seem to put so much stock in the ensembles, then
      why bother running the operational???

      I’m just curious and throwing out these questions.

      1. I think it’s most important to look at the ensembles when you are still 3 days+ away from the storm, pieces of energy are far away and over more remote data starved areas, and slight differences in the way the model is initialized can have bigger differences on the outcome. As you get closer to the event and sampling is better, the operational runs in most cases become more accurate.

        2. Agreed. A set of forecasts produced by the ensembles is most likely to depict an outcome over the operational. As we get closer to the event, the ensembles should be in more agreement with the operational output.

    2. Of course, that assumes that this run is actually “correct”, or reasonably so. It may not be there quite yet.

  28. With Daylight STUPID Time, does this mean that the tv mets will have no choice but to provide “old” information at times since the models will be coming out 1 hour later? Similar to hurricane info during the summer?

    1. They could always make something up. 😉
      It happens a percentage of the time anyway… 😛

    1. Saying that today is like guessing without looking at anything and only hearing a big storm is coming with a high to the north.

    2. Very unprofessional for an experienced met to be putting out numbers 3-4 days ahead of the storm . Please tell me he doesn’t have a map out

        1. I won’t fault him for saying it. I’m just saying I don’t agree with doing it. But he’s a big boy and can live with the results, right or wrong. 🙂

  32. Blizzard watch issued for southern CT and long island including NYC. Winter storm watch in NH and VT, nothing for massachusetts.

    3. 459 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017
      …Note that Boston is in the Blizzard Watch and
      Providence is not too far removed from the watch area.

  36. Friends are going to be staying with us starting tomorrow, as they are taking their daughter to visit Tufts Monday. Then they are planning on taking Amtrak to NYC for more college visits Tuesday morning. What are people’s thoughts on the viability of taking Amtrak Tuesday given the forecast? Does Amtrak keep going in bad weather? Is this storm likely to affect NYC too?

    1. Wondering if they travel Monday night, they’ll do better. They’re from Minnesota, so it’s more about how things go here, than about them being overwhelmed.

    2. NYC is under a blizzard watch for Monday night thru Tuesday night timeframe w/ 12-18″ possible.

  37. I’m sorry but how can people saying all systems go + numbers a Saturday for a Tuesday storm when Track is not set in stone . I just don’t get it at all.

      1. No they don’t POTENTIAL was the word remember . Maps & #s out every where . I hope it is very little in Boston and they all look like fools. In my opinion it’s still a potential. Now it’s going to be who can out due who. Just my opinion as I think numbers could have at the earliest been reserved for tomorrow night .

        2. John, the start of the storm is now only 48 hours away and there is overwhelming model support (operational and ensemble runs) for a significant snowfall across most of SNE. I don’t think it is irresponsible at all for the NWS to be issuing watches and for mets to be throwing preliminary numbers out at this time. The general public needs to be able to prepare for something like this more than 24 hours in advance.

          1. Mark it’s turned from keyword potential to this massive storm . I’ve seen different mets saying today sure thing and here are my numbers and this was this morning . It’s just my opinion anytime we get snow now it’s hyped to the max .

            1. Nobody should be saying sure thing with their numbers at this point, I agree, and if anyone is saying massive, crippling, or historic storm, then that is indeed irresponsible. But to warn the general public that a significant storm (6″+) is coming is fine IMO. Whether it’s a 6-12 or 12-18″, it’s going to be impacting people’s plans on Tuesday and they should be preparing for it now.

          3. We don’t see Tk and Sak throwing numbers around a Saturday before a Tuesday storm . Now those two are excellent and responsible mets hands down . I’ve said enough take care enjoy .

            1. I would like the snow lovers though to get this storm I just think the tv mets are acting like Flys on —-!!!!!

            2. But SAK and TK are not responsible for the general public. I for one would not want to be in the shoes of network mets.

              1. Actually, I am. At work, I provided forecasts for numerous DPWs across the area, as well as several different radio stations.

                I just got home from the Lowell game (Winner-takes-it-all-Game-3 Sunday afternoon!), and am about to sit down and take a look at the 00z runs.

                1. I knew you were sak that’s why I mentioned . You guys would never act like these tv mets.

  39. I have seen 2 TV met snow maps tonight, one giving Boston 10-16″ and the other giving 12-18″. Both are probably premature and a little aggressive me thinks.

    The storm and its track are a tough call so I think it would be safer at 36 hours out.

  41. From our friend DT:

    Wxrisk.com added 3 new photos.
    1 hr ·
    ALERT BREAKING NEWS – ABOUT TUESDAY 3/14 NOREASTER
    EUROPEAN MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOWS THAT THE OPERATIONAL EURO which at 1pm took the LOW waaay East … and hence a lot LESS SNOW for all of the Northeast US– IS BOGUS… fake, spurious, false, , deceptive; counterfeit, feigned; , pseudo, fictitious.

  43. Record cold minimum high temperatures set today at Worcester (16), Hartford/Bradley (22), and Providence (23).

    We only made it to 17 here today here in Coventry CT after a morning low of 5. Thinking we have a shot at 0 tonight with clear skis and snow cover. Down to 13 now.

  44. man I can not believe what I just heard about blizzards on a certain network on tv apparently ya need snow to be falling for a blizzard now…..

  45. Ryan Hanrahan and NBC Connecticut playing it simple with their snowmap and just showing 6-12″+ for all of SNE.

  46. I personally am looking for more info on this event ……

    Main cause of uncertainty for me is the idea of the 500mb feature lagging behind the coastal impulse.

    As seen today, models still trying to figure out the interaction or lack there of between the 2.

    Not feeling confident that we’re seeing how this truly plays out.

    1. I wish the general public could see how difficult it is to figure this all out. For one, it has given me a true appreciation for the job of meteorologists. WHW is a tremendous source not only for forecasts but for understanding. Eric tries to get the explanation out there for those who want to understand. It is why I like him. Mark is right IMO. You cannot wait so you are damned if you do and damned if you don’t.

      1. Indeed. Agree on all points. Glad I don’t have that responsibility.

        On Facebook, I’ll sometimes give my opinion for what I think will happen in the Marshfield area and I haven’t done that yet because I just don’t feel fully confident.

          2. I liked your post, Hadi. But you didn’t answer my question and you said you’d answer questions so I’m feeling very very sad 😉 😉

  48. The EURO op run, and I’m aware the ensemble was further west, creates doubt on Tuesday for me. Especially when other models also moved east of their 00z solutions.

    The EURO’s so good at finding those small scale things that matter, like when it saw the weakness that hurricane Joaquin followed OTS instead of being influences by the trof over the southeast.

    If the distance between the 500mb feature and the coastal system increases further, I could see the coastal system track projection shift even a bit further eastward. We’ll see 🙂 🙂

          1. I like NBC Boston weather team
            WBZ
            NBC Boston
            Channel 5 (harvey only met here I like)
            channel 7

    1. Further east than its previous 12z eastward adjustment …..

      So now, does the 00z EURO replicate it’s 12z run which would kind of be in agreement or does it continue further eastward again ?

            1. Agreed re : would be a good track for snow.

              I’d say it shifted another 25 to 35 miles eastward.

              My thought was, if the EURO does that kind of shift again (another 25 to 35 miles), perhaps some of the heaviest precip starts missing to the east and southeast.

              1. Absolutely a real possibility. We shall see tomorrow. I think track will still wobble. I look forward to short range high res stuff come Monday.

    2. no that is no beaty that is to far east for my liking, again i feel like my area points north will be again not part of the good stuff. Common theme the past few winters have been to feature storms that are good for I95 points south and east and not have the Merrimack Valley points north getting the good stuff. Would like a nice wide spread 12+ storm for interior mass/Merrimack valley. Give rain to southeast mass/ cape and islands. 😀 I doubt it

    1. discard that, did not work. Over all weakening and sending further east in the model since Last night.

  54. Also see the lagging 500 mb feature passing to our south that the models are starting to hone in on. Associated surface low passing out underneath us Wednesday. Wonder if that ends up further north ??

    I don’t feel like I have much more clarity yet. Want to see the EURO. Well, probably in the morning. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Yeah with losing an hour of sleep and two boys that don’t understand what sleep in in mean, I will also view it in the morning.

  56. I also don’t believe we are talking blockbuster storm here either. I like my earlier post on FB of 10-16 inches with some higher pockets at most. Still an outstanding storm nonetheless.

  57. A little over the top tweet from Ryan Maue. He posts some great maps and data.

    Blizzard rapidly intensifies from 1012 mb –> 987 mb in 24-hours, qualifies as “bomb”
    Snow + wind should “cripple” I-95 corridor Tuesday.

  59. Another tweet from NWS

    [Tech] Quick look at 00z NAM/GFS: NAM looks too far W w/its sfc low track. GFS much more reasonable w/track near 40/70 benchmark.

  60. Here’s my “what could go wrong scenario”

    The EURO does continue with a further east adjustment and it’s Nantucket and Chatham that get the heavy snow Tuesday with lighter to moderate snows for Manchester, NH-Worcester-Providence points east.

    Break later Tuesday-Tuesday evening than another light-moderate pulse of snow Wednesday morning in southern third of New England. And btwn the 2, Marshfield and Boston get like 4-7 inches total over a 48 hr period.

  61. One more NWS tweet.

    May end up between Nantucket & 40/70. Upper low may not close off fast enough to bring it closer to SNE coast.

  62. An observation …..

    The last 12 hrs, the storm is projected to be more progressive. I infer that means that the lagging 500 mb feature is having less influence on it.

    In some cases, that’s probably a good thing. But in this case, I’d guess it’s needed to sharpen the flow from the current WNW flow that’s helping to deliver this very cold airmass.

  63. this smells like a storm that is going further and furthe east, something I was worried about due to the upper energy not pulling the storm… I think areas southeast mass, cape and Islands have the best shot of the heavy snowfall. I do not think we get muc more than a moderate snowfall Northern mass.

  64. Well ain’t the 00z euro a beauty. Showing close to 2+ feet of snow with the kuchera method for ratios, I highly doubt those will confirm but still shows a good 15 to 20 inches with 10 to 1 ratio. Also saw on twitter that the rom is showing 2 feet of snow good chunk of central and eastern masss

  65. In spite of this intense cold we are experiencing now, temps during the storm on Tuesday will be near or at 32F so I doubt there will be much of fluff factor. I would expect a fairly heavy snow to move around…great for snowballs!

    Note: During the Great Blizzard of ’78 the temp in Boston during its peak was 33F with no mix or changeover whatsoever. Could be similar in that sense, not likely amounts, of course. Say goodbye to those fluffy days of 2015 for now. 😉

  67. …and the clock is adjusted. 😉
    Dumb WordPress can’t read the computer and change itself. 😛

  68. As a retail business owner who is in constant contact with the public, it seems “the word” since Friday on just about everyone’s lips is: “Boston is getting two feet of snow on Tuesday.”
    “Everything will be cancelled for at least two days if not longer.”
    Where is this coming from? It does always seem that whatever the highest possible amount in a given snowfall range is people automatically assume that is what we are going to get ….

      1. I was anticipating the possibility of another slight eastward adjustment and instead, the op run came in slightly west of its previous 12z.

        It’s got a significant snowstorm Tuesday, with wind also for our area Sue. Probably high water content snow. 🙁 🙁

        Looking forward to the 12z model suite.

        1. Thanks Tom. I was thinking it went out to sea since my phone wasn’t blowing up with media alerts. They all seem quiet this morning.

        2. Thank you, Tom. High water content is Not good for trees. Many have begun to bud and come alive for spring.

      1. I feel it doesn’t make it past the CCC and there could be a wild card with OC enhancement in eastern mass.

      2. I am not too worried for south shore but rather towards south coast. That’s a nice high location to funnel in cold air for majority of the region.

  72. Euro track should put Worcester area squarely in the jackpot zone but plenty of snow for most of the region except for south coast where mixing will be an issue. Nonetheless a widespread 12+ should occur region wide.

      1. Don’t disagree. We have a baby shower for my niece on Sunday and several flying in and out so am watching it closely.

  74. I think 12-18″ is a good starting point for most of SNE. As others have said, the system will be fairly progressive, so it’s not going to be a real blockbuster. 12-14″ amounts will probably be more common than 16-18″ ones. I’m not too worried about mixing outside of far SE Mass and along the South Coast. I still think there’s some bust potential at least near and west of Worcester from a potential eastward track shift. Also, some of the guidance is signaling that the highest totals (18″+) may be farther southwest in the NYC area and into NJ, which does make sense to me since the storm will be moving a little slower down there with very intense precipitation as the low bombs out. We’re still 48 hours out, so there is certainly room for change, but most indications are for a solid Nor’easter on the way.

  75. Still think it’s tough to nail down numbers. Looking more at placement today and then go from there with exact numbers. I am though confident in 12+ for many areas. Can we achieve a 20, sure but placement will be key. Also look at qpf and sort of go from there for possible totals vs what snow maps are spitting out.

    1. 20 may be tough to realize. Negating factors include water content, higher sun angle, and the progressive nature of this storm. Nevertheless, a classic is on the way.

      1. Agree but not out of the realm of possibility. Progressive nature of storm will be the major limiting factor.

  76. Pretty interesting that in a mostly benign winter we will probably end up well above average for seasonal snow totals at most climo sites in SNE.

    1. I agree but it still remains to be seen if the WBZ Accuweather team’s forecast of 55″ will verify. I bet they come up short.

  77. Good morning. GFS looks the best. NAM has come around some with a slightly
    more Easterly Track, but snow numbers look odd.

    But the biggest take was the Euro. That brings it fairly tight to the coast a limits
    the snow ALL the way up to Boston.

    Here are some totals the Euro is spitting out:

    Boston: 9.6
    Weymouth: 6.6
    Marshfield: 3.6
    Hyannis: 1.1
    Norwood: 12.6
    Woburn: 15.3
    Worcester: 22.6
    Sutton: 21.6
    Waterbury, Ct: 24.1

    I hope that the Euro adjusts a “little” more East.

    Onto the 12Z runs

    OH, fwiw FIM delivers 12-18 inches across Eastern MA and had a track similar to
    the GFS.

    NAM coming out now. 😀

  79. Can we get this system to move in a little quicker. Timing Tuesday leaves the door
    open for all to get stuck in it. How is a business going to close if it isn’t even
    snowing when people get up in the morning? Timing, timing, timing.

    Schools, not as big of a problem.

    1. Exactly, JPD. Everyone will get to work and then the return commute will be a nightmare….IF snow amounts are large.

    2. I plan to open the urgent care from 8 a.m – ? Likely will close at 12 so my employees aren’t put in harms way. Of course this is subject to change is we fine tune the timing.

  80. From NWS this morning:

    We`re thinking a track somewhere
    just east of Nantucket to the famous 40/70 benchmark is the most
    likely window right now, which is in line with consensus of other
    models and fits upper air pattern best.

    1. Cool happy to share! It’s the least I can do with all the map posting you do of which I appreciate.

  82. Quick hits now…

    -Model consistency: No. We have not had that despite claims we have. Even the ECMWF has itself been inconsistent run to run.

    -Numbers? This afternoon. I’m tied up until about noon.

    -NWS snow map? When is it not too high for at least part of the region? I partially agree and partially disagree, but that’s only general since I have not officially put #’s out yet.

    -If I could knock the collective media heads together I would. This has been another prime example of misleading headlines and Tweets. I’d make the Trump joke about him taking over the NWS Twitter account, but I’m leaving politics out of this blog (oops, I guess I made the joke anyway – my blog so I get a free pass this time) …

    -I forget the next point I was going to make. So hold that thought…

      1. It goes right over the cape and brings 850 0c line to just South of Boston. INCREDIBLE SNOW TOTALS!!!!!

      1. Incredible snow amounts?? Nothing compares to the time the NAM spit out the 72inches of snow a few years back! That was incredible!

        1. I remember that one. OF course it NEVER materialized.
          In this case, I think they are much more realizable (is that a word?). 😀

  85. 12Z NAM snow map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017031212&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=069

    Farthest advancement of 0C line

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017031212&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=057

    This could introduce mix/sleet/rain just about up to Boston. I don’t think this happens, but it is a concern. I think the mix line stays somewhere on the far
    South Shore, between the canal and perhaps up to Marshfield or so. Somewhere
    in there. I hope.

      1. At the current state of all the models put together, there’s going to be some area that has a very high water content snow combined with a 3-6 hr period of strong NE winds where power outages are likely to be common. And of course, right now, that’s feeling like the south shore.

    5. NBC Boston had almost become the anti-channel 7 (WHDH). I’ve noticed all winter they have been very conservative and on the lower end of all the stations for snowfall.

      2. Yeah I’ve not liked their maps. But then again it’s just NECNs team so they were never precise. Keep in mind they were touting before this season began a whole new high tech forecasting suite and all that jazz.

  87. And another zoomed in look at the 12z NAM snow totals at 10:1 ratio:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017031212&fh=60

    This system looks like it is going to be similar to the early February storm where pretty much all the snow falls in a 12 hour span and the bulk of the really heavy accumulating snow occurs in an 8-10 hour period. At this point, I would say 12-16″ is a good call for most. It’s going to be hard to get any totals up above 18″ unless this system slows down some.

    Also, :re the 0z Euro, I was not that surprised to see it come in tucked closer to the coast. At 12z yesterday, nearly all of the 52 ensembles were west of the operational.

    1. Sounds good, but with incredible snow rates, it would not surprise me to
      see a few locations come in at 2 feet. Where? I couldn’t tell at this point, but somewhere in SNE. 😀 Depends upon if/when/where the heavy bands set up.

  88. While looking at the NAM coming in, the thought occurred to me…
    I am wondering if the set up is such that we might see THUNDER SNOW for
    the 3rd time this season. That would be truly awesome.

    I have witnessed thunder snow many times, but not sure I have 3 times in
    one Winter Season.

    1. While I also have witnessed thunder snow many time, we have not had it here this year…..I’ll hope for some this time around. Mother nature at her finest!

  90. Hi WHW faithful!

    Blog update will be posted as close to 1PM as possible. I have to be mobile for 1 more hour then will compose the blog while I have lunch!

    Be back soon!

  92. This storm illustrates how quickly things can change. When it first came on the radar it was proved to be a 24-36hr storm slowing down and cutting off as it got up here. Now it’s going to be progressive and be out of here in 18hrs or so?

  94. Is MArch 20th the first day of Spring? Did someone here say to look for something
    in that time period? Seems someone did.

    Well there is something brewing. Track and precipitation type to be determined. 😀

  95. The southern stream system sneaking way south of us today …..

    It’s snowing in Wilmington, NC. Watching it on the wrightsville beach webcam !!!

    3. that was shown on the models, southern stream splits one going out to sea the other being caught by the Northern stream….

  96. With the GFS slowly coming out here, I feel like I just picked up a Christmas present
    and am starting to unwrap it. 😀

  102. Still delivers a healthy dose of snow, but the 18″ amounts are gone. A foot to just over for Boston

    1. Yeah not accounting for banding etc… imo. 12-18 and a plus there is not out of the question. I think GFS probably a tick too far east and euro a tick west. Split the middle and you get 12-18+. But I am no expert.

    2. Yes, but need to keep those 850 temps down if we want decent ocean enhancement. IF it starts creeping towards 32, the ocean enhancement will
      shut down. GFS keeps it at about -10C With sea surface at about 5C.

      That is a 15 C spread. I think it needs to 16 C??? I can’t remember the exact figure, but a 20C spread is ideal.

        1. Oh by the way, wind speed affects the lake effect snows
          as follows:

          Wind speed needs to be light enough across the lake in order for moisture convergence to occur. The moisture content of the air depends on the previous dewpoint of the air moving over the lake and the moisture acquired through evaporation over the lake. If winds are too strong in the PBL, over 50 miles per hour for example, enough moisture may not be able to evaporate to produce heavy lake effect snow. The best combination would be deep layer of arctic air moving between 10 and 40 miles per hour. Arctic air has some variation in dryness before it moves over the lake. Arctic air with an above average dewpoint will become saturated and produce more snow than arctic air that is extremely dry. Increasing the amounts of moisture in the air can occur from multi-lake interaction when polar air picks up moisture from an upwind lake before it moves over another downwind lake

    3. Oh, I wasn’t even considering ocean effect this go around. I took this, in this case, as synoptic snow. 850mb low and perhaps 700mb look much closer than the sfc low on that GFS run.

    4. Tom…if our area Hingham to Marshfield even gets 10 inches it’s going to be a mess. Heavy wet snow, some power outages, maybe some minor coastal flooding, etc. Also I have a hung that this storm while not a slow as originally predicted might not be quite as progressive as we are seeing right now. Just a guess nothing more.

      1. Agreed. In our particular area, snow totals in a windy storm are almost irrelevant. It’s the things you mentioned and I am worried about a potential wet snow/wind combo and of course the tide too.

  104. 12Z GFS also knocks the wind down some. Let’s see what the Euro shows.
    I would imagine this has no affect on the NWS blizzard watch since it’s just that,
    a watch. They do not have to convert to a warning. they could revert to Winter
    Storm Warning.

    Not ready to abandon blizzard, but I have a feeling blizzard conditions will not
    verify in Boston. We shall see.

  107. GFS east, new CMC considerably to the west… very interested in seeing the UKMET and ECMWF. There’s still quite a bit of wiggle room here…

  108. BEWARE using Kuchera. Follow JMA’s advice.

    Having lunch and putting together update…

      1. I think actually most forecasts out there are realistic at this point. Not sure why you think otherwise.

        2. I’m not totally convinced . Later start and quicker storm are some concerns as well as the mixing making it up to Boston . We still have plenty of runs to go till Tuesday morning.

      3. John, I have a hunch TK will play it conservative, but I feel like u think he will say a dusting to an inch.

        2. Absolutely not . I definitely think snow I’m just not sold on double digit numbers for Boston or south shore as of now that’s all

  109. Watch the upper level low on Wednesday as well. TK pointed that out to me and usually well not well modeled for more snow during the day.

  111. On almost nearly every model, there are signs in the isobars showing high pressure bridged nicely to our north.

    Additionally, the sfc low and 500mb feature don’t fully phase ….. So I really think the sfc low track will end up SE of Cape Cod.

    1. Yup and so does the NWS.

      Take them all and average them out and we get a track about over Nantucket or perhaps between the Cape and Nantucket. We shall see, but I don’t see a track over the canal. Outer cape at worse and Nantucket or SE at best.

  112. CMC is also too far west with track. Move it about 50 miles and that’s where the most likely track ends up.

  113. Bernie tweet

    I do not see any significant changes in GFS 500 mb structure. still more consolidated, but it is a little slower. Track is FAB for I-95.

    2. He also said:

      IMO I do think the GFS track is a little to far E given the 500 mb structure. I suspect the GFS will slide further W (a little) in future

  117. Always a little hard to tell with the 12 hour increments, but the 12z UKMET looks near or perhaps even a shade west of the CMC. It depicts a very intense low.

    Even with a track like that on the CMC or UKMET (which may be too far west in reality), I suspect there would be a very hefty front end thump of snow along the I95 corridor before a mix line tries to work in later in the event. The air in front of the storm should be cold enough to lock in snow for quite awhile, although ratios may be impacted.

        1. Metograms out.

          50 MM qpf on the UKMET
          or 1.97 inch.

          That’s a crapload of snow where it is all snow.

    1. Italian sausage marinara with ziti, and garlic bread. You need CARBS to hammer out a good forecast! 😉

  120. SSK…I think no matter how the snowfall forecast goes (high end or more conservative) I think you will be in for long shift at the hospital 😉

    2. Oh absolutely. I’ll probably report 3:00 Tuesday and most definitely till Wednesday sometime.

  121. LOL’ing to the comments above.

    We wait for the Euro, we wait for the GFS, we wait for the NAM, and we wait for TK to finish his lunch!

    1. Haha.

      And we guess what TK will say

      Here is my guess. 1-2 feet very widespread. Average 15-18 Worcester up through and along Maine coast. 10-12 toward Boston. 6-8 south coast

      Disclaimer. Based in ABSOLUTELY NOTHING other than reading here and there

  122. A couple of AccuWeather Quizzes.

    1) What is the coldest temperature ever recorded in Boston?

    A. -13
    B. -15
    C. -18
    D. -20

    2) What is the coldest temperature ever recorded in March in Boston?

    A. -12
    B. -8
    C. -4
    D. -1

    Answers later today.

  123. I’m about to head up to Lowell for the afternoon/evening (Let’s go RiverHawks!), and will have much more detail in my Weekly blog post tonight, but my initial thoughts, as just posted on Facebook:

    Timing: Starting before daybreak Tuesday, tapering off before midnight Tuesday night:

    Mixing: Snow may change to rain across the Cape and SE Mass, possibly as far inland as I-95.

    Amounts: Where it stays all snow, 10-15″ with isolated heavier amounts. Lower totals where mixing with rain occurs.

    1. Thanks SAK. Excellent forecast. I doubt rain/snow line makes it into I-95 but you’re typically spot on so time will tell.

      1. In the Hockey East tournament – yes. They already have locked down a spot in the NCAA tournament, so they will still be playing hockey this season.

Comments are closed.