Sunday Forecast

254 Comments

1:40PM

Before I get into this, a couple caveats. Please take note and remember.
* Don’t look at a computer model forecast of snow totals online or TV and think that’s automatically the forecast. I’m not a fan of these being shown on TV weather forecasts because they cause confusion. Who needs to see what the Euro, NAM, and GFS, and Canadian model for that matter are showing when the meteorologist is more than capable of looking at that data and coming up with the best forecast he or she can? Yes, we discuss them openly here on the blog, but its with the understanding that they are model forecasts and models have significant biases that the general public doesn’t need to be concerned with.
* When you see a forecast snowfall range here or anywhere else, PLEASE remember to pay attention to the range, NOT just the top number. For example, “12 to 18 inches” does not mean “18 inches”. It means “12 to 18 inches” The ranges are there for a reason. Snowfall accumulates at a ratio anywhere from 5 to 20+ times greater than rainfall does. A tiny difference in the amount of melted precipitation can make a huge difference in the amount of snow that falls. Please understand that snowfall can vary highly, even over fairly short distances, based on topography, proximity to ocean, and other factors.
* Realize that a forecast is a forecast. It’s a prediction of the future movement of complex fluids of differing densities. Always check trusted sources for updates, because even the best meteorologist will never make a perfect forecast. It’s impossible.
* Weed through media hype and listen to the facts. Most TV meteorologists out there in this area are decent, and though they have to play the ratings game, they will generally give a well thought-out forecast. Forget the sensationalism the anchors may throw out at you, even though it is not of bad intent. It’s just not necessary.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 12-16)
First, the advertised very cold weekend continues. There have been a few records established during this which we will review later. High pressure remains in control with dry and cold weather through Monday (what some of the old timers refer to as a “weather breeder” day – or that nice pleasant winter day you get right before all hell breaks loose, or something like that). Yes, there is a storm coming. Yes, it is going to be significant. No, it is not going to be the “storm of the new century” or the “end of the world” or “the biggest stawm eva!”. It’s going to be a good old solid late winter storm in New England, so let’s look at how I think things will play out in the simplest terms possible. Energy which has traveled great distance from several places to meet up for a party will do just that along the US East Coast starting Monday and a storm will result that will then take a fairly rapid north northeast run right up the coast. As always, the precise track of the low pressure center will have rather significant implications on snow amounts and any mix/change. To be honest, even after reviewing the latest info, I still am a little bit unsure which way to play this, but here is my best stab at it first in an overview here, then in details in the forecast section just below. It’s a 2-part event with main impact from a powerful and fast-moving surface low on Tuesday, tracking either over Nantucket and outer Cape Cod or just east of there. I realize there are model solutions both further west and further east of this still, and either of these are possible, because timing of the closing-off of an upper level low is critical enough that it will impact the track and even a 20 or 25 mile difference in the track of a low that covers hundreds of miles will have a giant impact on the amount of snow any particular location gets, especially closer to where any mix/change would occur. So based on the track I am going with, heaviest snow from the Tuesday part of the event would be in a wide swath from about the Cape Cod Canal westward including most of RI, CT, eastern and central MA, and southern NH. Amounts would possibly be less in western MA and CT due to them being further away from the storm center. The most likely area to see a change to rain will be Cape Cod and the Islands. And of course there is the potential for this still to shift one way or another. I cannot rule out a mix/change area getting deeper into southeastern MA and RI. Will re-evaluate this with the help of short range guidance as we get closer to the event. Also cannot rule out thunder in heavier precipitation bands. Wind impacts will be significant, especially given weakened trees from recent wind events. It’s also important to note that many of the trees that have come down in the last few events were weakened by drought, age, and insect infestation, which are all natural occurrences in an aging forest. Anyway, wind damage from gusts in excess of 50 MPH are possible especially in southeastern MA and favoring coastal areas from Boston southward. This would be most likely during Tuesday afternoon. Coastal flooding is also probable at high tide times and may be moderate to significant in typical areas. Why will this first system have no chance to stall and dump super high snow totals on the area? Because the upper level low pressure area that would capture it will still be back to the west and southwest of New England. In fact, this is the “part 2” of the system. Before that happens, a dry slot of lighter or no precipitation will likely move up into RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH by Tuesday evening while snow continues in areas to the west. The next part of the system will have much less overall impact, but may still bring some additional accumulating snow to the region during Wednesday. This will be the upper level low pressure area swinging eastward through the region. Once we get to Thursday, this upper low will be exiting to the east and we’ll have a cold and dry day. Forecast details next…
THIS AFTERNOON: Sunny. Highs 24-33. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 interior, 10-15 coast/urban areas. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunshine becomes filtered by high clouds later in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Snow South Coast before dawn. Lows 22-30. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow area pushes north quickly in the early to mid morning and becomes heavy at times, first in RI and southern MA then the remainder of MA into NH, likely changes to rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, probably changes to rain mid Cape and Martha’s Vineyard, and may mix with rain a little further into southeastern MA and southern and eastern RI. Lightning/thunder is possible in heavier precipitation bands. By evening precipitation becomes lighter or stops in RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH but snow lingers to the west before tapering off later. Expected snow accumulation through evening: 3-5 inches outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, 5-10 inches Martha’s Vineyard and mid Cape Cod westward to about the southern Cape Cod Canal, and 10-15 inches elsewhere with pockets of 15-18 inches possible in northwestern RI and eastern CT, central and east central MA, and southern NH, then amounts diminishing gradually to mostly under 10 inches over northwestern CT and western MA. Highs 25-30 most interior locations and 30-35 coastal areas but 35-45 over Cape Cod and the Islands. Wind NE 15-25 MPH inland with gusts 30-40 MPH, 25-35 MPH coast with frequent gusts 40-50 MPH, occasional gusts 50-60 MPH, and isolated gusts above 60 MPH especially coastal southeastern MA.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of snow. Additional accumulation likely. Lows 15-25. Highs 25-35. Coldest interior areas.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-20. Highs 25-35.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 17-21)
Dry March 17. Watching possible storminess during the March 18-20 period. Dry March 21. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 22-26)
Watching possible storminess early and again late period. Temperatures near to below normal.

254 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Out getting bread and milk (aka diapers). I’d rather run out of food than diapers 😀 It’s a bleep show at the stores today.

    1. Son in law just went out. I went Thursday ….it was empty

      And agree re diapers. How are you all?

  4. Thanks TK. Great analysis as always.

    Even with a tucked in track that I am still not buying, you have to figure dynamics at a part in keeping things all snow for a lot of the region. Hate waiting on euro

  5. Thanks TK. Precip charts to come, but just based on low strength and placement at 48 hours, I think the new Euro will be very juiced up and likely in the more western track camp.

  7. Thanks again TK! I like the non-hype here on this blog. 🙂

    Regarding your thoughts on snowfall ranges, I absolutely agree and I will try to remember in the future not too focus on the higher ends. However, perhaps it may be part of human nature to focus on “worst” case scenarios. From the time we are school kids, we look for those “high” numbers for a nice snow day or two. 😉

    I remember Mark Rosenthal when he was in Ch. 5 he would try to remind viewers just what you stated above, but would most of us listen? Of course not. 😀

  9. Looking over your forecast, and the continuation of snow into Wednesday-how much additional accumulation might you expect into Wednesday in the Worcester area, and what would be the shut off period?

    Will be looking at rest periods for plow crews, and wonder about duration of Tuesday night into Wednesday. Early to mid morning, later morning, early PM, etc.?

  11. 974mb off the Maine coast.

    Draw a roughly straight line btwn the 48 and 72 hr position and you might cross around the canal.

  13. My oh my is that an epic crush job on the 12z Euro; wow! 15-20″+ regionwide at 10:1 ratios.

      1. I’m not allowed to post Hi-res Euro graphics via Weatherbell, which is the service I use to see them (although that doesn’t stop everyone, so you may find it on various other social medias). I think your region is right in the highest bullseye on this run, 20-22″ at 10:1. Kuchera method would put those numbers even higher, but I agree with the cautions TK and JMA have given about going too high with ratios, especially this time of year.

  14. Hey, I just realized my guess a bit ago on Saturday blog was very close to yours. Clearly I am retaining information I read. Not always something I do

    Seems across the board there is fairly consistent agreement. Let ‘er rip!!!!

  16. The snow this time around will be considerably wetter than we have seen in quite awhile, especially along coastal areas.

      1. Or a foot of cement! Could be a situation where eastern sections of your Town get 6″ and a few miles west you are up to 12″. Threading the needle with the track.

  18. I heard the euro stalls but not near us but off the jersey coast due to rapid intensification . Givin them areas sw of us big snow.

  19. Two different “jackpot zones”. One with 2′ plus over the Catskills and Poconos, and another 2′ plus zone from NE MA into ME. CT is stuck in the middle in a snow hole. Seems to be some shadowing going on in the CT River Valley. Guess I will just have to take my 18″ and be happy with it 🙂

  20. The increased intensity of the low on much of the midday guidance would also start to magnify the damage potential outside of snow with this storm. If the stronger scenario plays out, wind damage (particularly in areas with wetter snow) and coastal concerns could be significant.

    2. I agree. Tom I think you guys are in for it with the heavy wet snow/wind combo and should prepare for power outages. Maybe you should switch houses with Vicki for a few days…

      1. 🙂 🙂

        In 15 years, the storm to always compare to is NEMO for us.

        National guard trucks around town, a majority of the town out of power for a few days, last of town was restored after 5-6 days. Checking the power outage map at NSTAR became a daily occurrence.

  21. My bet is the tv mets won’t mention this being a two-part storm. Thanks TK for the heads-up! 🙂

  22. Kane, I’m not seeing a stall on the Euro off NJ. It intensifies rapidly as it moves up the coast with the center passing roughly over Chatham, MA. It gets as low as 972mb or so in the Gulf of Maine before it makes landfall again near Bar Harbor, ME. Then it starts to stall out and just weaken as it drifts over eastern ME and into western New Brunswick. Very similar to what a landfalling hurricane would do.

    1. Thanks mark. I was hoping this storm wouldn’t be progressive. Nonetheless it’s still a decent storm

  23. Just look at the euro. My service snow algorithm has boston in at an even 12 inches, up from 9 and change from last night. Inland areas are up about 5 inches.

    Woburn from 15 to 19
    Norwood from 12 to 17
    Worcester and Sutton come in right at 2 feet even.

    The lower pressure has me concerned and with possibly a higher density snow near
    the coast could spell trouble. My wife is concerned about neighbor’s trees coming down on our house.

    I looked closely at the 12Z Euro. It tracks off the Cape and into Gulf of Maine
    and it appears to have slowed down some.

    http://imgur.com/a/f9IEe

    1. With the deep cold in place, this Euro track is just fine, well not if you want snow
      on the far South shore and Cape, but for boston and west it is BEAUTIFUL!!!

          1. yes I am, and I am happy that ski country is getting good snows as well, since I be heading up there Wednesday.

    2. Dave, the weatherbell maps have 2″ QPF and 20″ of snow for Boston at 10:1 ratio. I will post some additional maps shortly.

      2. You know I have been suspicious of the service I have.
        The general snow maps show something and then when you
        enter the city, it shows considerably less.

        Thank you for sharing the maps.

        I think we are in for a good one, a really good one.

  24. 12z EURO put a smile on my face for snow.
    What did not put a smile on face was those wind gusts the EURO was showing. Snowfall not the only story with this storm.

  25. I am hoping its not a heavy wet snow. Tough for shoveling and as you pointed out Philip could be trouble for those weak trees.

  26. Repost Quizzes and those who answered.

    A couple of AccuWeather Quizzes.

    1) What is the coldest temperature ever recorded in Boston?

    A. -13
    B. -15
    C. -18
    D. -20

    2) What is the coldest temperature ever recorded in March in Boston?

    A. -12
    B. -8
    C. -4
    D. -1

    Answers later today.

    JpDave says:

    March 12, 2017 at 1:13 PM

    #1. A
    #2. C

    Vicki says:

    March 12, 2017 at 1:13 PM

    Thank you, sir. I will go with double C

    C
    C

    alisonarod says:

    March 12, 2017 at 1:18 PM

    B, D

    1. Do you remember when it was advised that we were using the word
      “bomb” way too often? He He He. Fire away! I love that term in connection
      with storms, snow or not. 😀

  28. JRW…
    Regarding your question about Wednesday for central MA…

    Normally I don’t post #’s more than 48 hours out, but I could see anywhere in southern New England getting anywhere from an inch or two to as much as half a foot (worst case scenario) on Wednesday. Don’t focus on the high end there, just knowing what can happen when upper lows swing across at this time of year. If I think it’s needed, I’ll put up a general accumulation forecast for Wednesday sometime tomorrow.

    1. Thank you TK. If you can and have time, could you explain why
      you think this will happen and also why the models are not seeing it
      just yet. Btw, Bernie Rayno agrees with you about the 500MB low coming
      through. Very interesting feature. And oh 1 last thing, why is this a concern especially this time of year? Is this more a convective event and the sun angle helps. Just trying to make this another learning experience. Many thanks.

      1. I wish I knew why models tend to under-do that feature. But they don’t always. It’s possible it doesn’t end up being as widespread as I think it may be, but I err on the side of caution based on climatology.

        The reason is often, but not always, better surface heating and some of the coldest air of the year aloft. Greater lapse rate, better instability, more lift, more precip.

  29. Here are some additional 12z Euro maps, courtesy of the American Weather forum. I believe these are from Weatherbell.

    Northeast snowmap at 10:1 ratio:
    https://s11.postimg.org/6nics89nn/Capture.jpg

    New England snowmap at 10:1 ratio:
    https://s24.postimg.org/5q8zve7z9/Capture1.jpg

    Northeast snowmap Kuchera ratio:
    https://s18.postimg.org/tjcygoycp/Capture2.jpg

    Northeast QPF totals:
    https://s27.postimg.org/y8tif7b03/Capture4.jpg

    Northeast Max Wind Gust Map:
    https://s27.postimg.org/aw0pmg1oz/Capture3.jpg

    So at 10:1 ratio, looking at 16″ for Hartford and 20″ for Boston.
    With Kuchera ratio, 24″for Hartford and 26″ for Boston and 30″+ for most of NH.

    Max winds are approaching hurricane force on portions of the eastern MA and LI coast. Gusts to 50mph across much of the interior. If the NWS holds any weight to this run, I would expect blizzard warnings to be expanded further inland.

    1. WOW!!! THANK YOU for sharing these. Truly amazing Stuff!!

      If the higher numbers materialize it would place this as a top 10 storm and
      possibly sneak into the top 5. I’d like to see that, although likely not.
      Just a really nice New England snow storm.

      NAM will be cranking soon.

      Are we seeing a trend to make this system Stronger Still. The wind is really concerning me now, especially since a neighbor’s tree came down recently. Had the wind been what it would be on Tuesday, that tree would have crashed into my house, instead of the yard next to mine.

  30. If that EURO pans out I am wondering for BDL in CT if this will a top biggest March snowstorms on record.

  32. Looking at the euro temperature grids, the snow looks to be wet anywhere near
    the coast on Tuesday. Temps are being show to be just above freezing at around 33
    Degrees and don’t drop to freezing or below until about 7 or 8PM.

    1. So, I am really not understanding some of the Kuchera totals.

      Personally, I think it will be colder than 33 in Boston. We shall see.
      I am thinking something like 28 or 29.

      1. The Kuchera ratios are just eye candy. I would toss them and go 10:1 for the reasons TK and JMA pointed out.

        1. In coastal areas, could be LESS than 10:1, although the ratio is not just determined by surface temperature.
          I have seen very low density wet snow. 😀

  33. From Ryan Hanrahan:
    The Euro keeps the best deformation snows farther northwest than you’d expect to see in that H7 low track. Almost up toward Albany. Seems like there’s a really enhanced area of QG forcing from the northern stream disturbance that’s digging during capture.

  35. 12z EPS (Euro Ensemble Mean) a bit east of the operational…..between the benchmark and Nantucket.

  36. Help!

    In looking at the Euro, am I seeing this storm pass just to the east of the BM? I don’t know if I am looking at this the right way.

  39. Surprised a blizzard warning did not go up in some of the areas in SNE that have a winter storm warning.

  40. Winter storm warnings up for all of SNE except the Cape and Islands where it is still just a Watch.

    Blizzard Watches up as well for Boston and coastal areas as well as southern CT

    NWS calling for 12-18″ region wide with a low risk of up to two feet in isolated areas.

    NWS snowmap:
    http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

  42. Snow is as exciting as it gets to me….well, any storm, but big ones like this are ….as JPD says…..a Christmas gift waiting to be unwrapped

    But as fun as they are….being here, sharing it with everyone and reading the links, and analysis of,the links, feeling everyone’s excitement triples what it would otherwise be. Waiting for TKs forecast alone is darn near as good as waiting for the storm

    TK again and always….THANK YOU for giving this to us. To everyone else, amazing talent here. Thank you as well.

  55. The 18z nam from hour 42 to 45 the low goes from WNW to SE if I am reading it correctly? It looked like it goes SE then ne after that. Looks kinda weird.

  56. NAM track is almost identical to the Euro with a track right over Chatham. Down to 974mb as it crosses the Cape! Explosive deepening on both models.

    It’s the GFS vs the world at this point with the somewhat weaker and further east solution

      1. Nice to have another real sense of humor around here.
        I don’t care if the GFS is straight, Gay or Bi, it doesn’t matter one bit to me as long as it does the job.

    1. Nice. I was about to point out there they don’t differ by much, but then you did stick in “Gradual Changes”. 😀

  59. I have to make a pizza run in a few minutes. We’ll eat a bit later because we ate lunch
    so LATE! Dam Daylight Stupid Time!((@*!()!!@#&!@#()!@#*!(@*#(!*@*(!

  60. I know it’s very hard to predict where the hwavy snow bands are going to be but I have a feeling it will be like last time with nw middle sex county to worcester is gona get hard. Leaving lighter precipitation area in ne mass like last time. Nws discussion did mention a chance of a dry slot happening in N RI and eastern mass but that might not happen.

      1. Same. If you look at the models some of them heavy snowfall around thr areas I mentioned. That could mean they will have more deformation bands maybe.

  61. 18z GFS is still on the eastern side of guidance, but a little closer and stronger than the 12z run.

  63. I picked the perfect fall/winter to build my addition. I started in early November and it was weather tight just after Thanksgiving. I’ve been working on interior since and finally finished this weekend. The project literally lasted from fall back to spring ahead. 🙂

  64. 18z gfs is also up on snow totals.
    Looking better and better. A major snow event.

    Onto the 0z runs

  66. Media “funnies”…

    Interview with someone on NBC Boston, paraphrased: “This time of year? You kidding me? It’s supposed to be spring!” (Should I use the term “ignorant”, or just plain “stupid” to describe that one?

    What I consider a local TV “oops”: They show a map of 12-18 inches, and then several panels of model-derived snow accumulations in time-step fashion, in which most of the totals are above 18 inches, obviously taken from the NAM. What happened to putting together a time-step for selected locations based on your actual forecast? In my opinion there is no excuse for that.

  68. This statement was just issued by the CT Dept of Emergency Services to each municipality in the State:

    Tuesday Morning: Snow beginning around 5:00 AM and becoming heavy by 9:00 AM. Blizzard conditions for the rest of the morning with very heavy snow (2.0” – 3.5” per hour), Northeast winds gusting to 50 MPH inland and 60 MPH at the coast with near zero visibilities. A major impact on all travel is expected by the end of the morning rush hour. Moderate coastal flooding is also possible at noontime.

    Tuesday Afternoon: Blizzard conditions are forecast to continue thru mid-afternoon with 2” – 3.5” per hour snowfall rates and winds gusting to 60 MPH at times. Conditions should start to improve by late afternoon as the snow tapers down to lighter levels by the evening. A major impact on all travel is expected with a deep snow cover possible on many roads. The strong winds and light snow may continue into Tuesday night and early Wednesday causing a ground blizzard with blowing and drifting of the snow.

    Total snowfall of 14 – 24 inches is currently expected. The Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection, Division of Emergency Management and Homeland Security will continue to closely monitor this approaching storm. Another update will be sent out at 10:00 AM Monday morning

  70. I really appreciate all the great information from so many people here.

    I have to admit that I could not resist checking the Weather Channel to see their name for the upcoming storm: Stella. Now all I can think of is that great Seinfeld episode where the over-medicated Elaine can’t stop screaming “Stella!”.

  72. Answers to AccuWeather Quizzes.

    1) What is the coldest temperature ever recorded in Boston?

    A. -13
    B. -15
    C. -18
    D. -20

    The answer is C.

    2) What is the coldest temperature ever recorded in March in Boston?

    A. -12
    B. -8
    C. -4
    D. -1

    The answer is B.

    2. Great quizzes as always Longshot.

      I can’t remember two consecutive weekends in March as cold as what we’ve just experienced. And I’ve been around a while. On the flip side, just a few weeks ago we were experiencing a string of days in the 60s. And, I can’t recall so many days in the 60s in February. It’s been an interesting (albeit weird) winter.

      As far as impact is concerned, the upcoming Northeast corridor storm may have a higher impact than Nemo. Note, I’m not saying more inches of snow. In fact, there will be less snow than Nemo in most locales. But, this storm is happening on a Tuesday and Wednesday, which will mean business and school closings up and down the Northeast corridor. Nemo occurred on a Friday night as I recall and so the clean-up occurred during the weekend which lessened the impact.

  74. Mike Waunkum posted 17″ for Boston.

    That is not part of a range, but an exact number! He gave numbers to some selected locations. He had Worcester at 23″ and I believe Lawrence 19″.

    NBC Boston does this as well. They show a typical snowfall map, then they put numbers on specific locations much like a temperature map.

    1. I think he was showing the hour by hour total accumulation using a line graph. It gave the impression of the totals being 17″, 19″, and 23″ in the locations you mentioned. The problem of course is that looked like he was forecasting an exact amount. Not good.

    2. See my post above addressing this. Now we know which TV station I was referring to. 😉

  76. I always hope for a fluffy snow when were talking about these kinds of totals. The wet snow is liking moving cement.

    1. Looks good Matt. I might tighten the 6-12 area up to 8-12 but other than that it looks pretty good. I do wonder about my area (mix or dry slotting later). If neither happen or happen very late then I would call for 10-15 in my area.

  79. Kane, Just had a chance to read your link.
    Pretty damn interesting. It mentioned DiFax, So I am guessing this is fairly old.

    TK, how valid is the information contained in that.

    Thanks

  80. From Eric Fisher

    If trend contines, may have to increase wind forecast to 55-75mph gusts coast and 40-55mph inland. Something to monitor next 12-24 hours.

  82. When you get wind gusts that high then you bring power outages into play.
    I am glad I went to the grocery store today. I don’t want to be anywhere near a grocery store tomorrow.

  84. From Matt Noyes…

    Matt Noyes‏Verified account @MattNBCBoston 2h2 hours ago

    Matt Noyes Retweeted History
    Did I mention historic storms tend to come in March? Another history-maker is calling. History repeats.

  85. The biggest March storm in my life was the 93 Superstorm when I got over a foot. I could get more snow with this one than I did with that one.

  88. This has been the type of winter where it shows up every now and then but never anything has staying power.

    1. You’re right, but when all is said and done March may prove to be this winter’s most consistently winter-like month with some staying power, fewer dramatic oscillations and almost continuously below-normal temperatures. Talk about interesting and a bit weird. This year February was March-like, January had an identity crisis and thought January thaw is a 3-week thing, and December was constantly in teasing mode making us think winter had arrived until it hadn’t.

  89. I know this is not scientific, I am getting the feeling that this storm will be known for widespread power outages. Does this storm rival the April Fools Day storm? I remember highway signs bent and torn along Rts. 24 and 95 from the gusts and the mashed potato snow.

    I got the generator out of the shed, gassed and powered it up. I have to keep the sump pump running.
    Can anyone weight in on power outages?

    Speaking of scientific, I thank all of you who are scientists who post to this blog, starting with our fearless leader, TK. I am a Spanish teacher who struggled with science and math. By reading and following this blog, I think I understand the wonders and power of weather (and I mean that sincerely) a little better. All of you make this a great place to turn to, especially on days like today and the next couple of days with exciting and changing weather on the doorstep.

    I love history, stats, records and bizarre/geeky trivia and try to add this info when I can.

    Thanks to everyone. This is so fun! Time to get ready for early morning classes. Looks certain of a Tuesday snow day (and Wednesday??)…That would bring us out to June 22.

    ‘Night y’all….

    1. March 31/April 1 1997 featured very heavy snow in terms of water content. At the same time, it was not a gale-force storm away from the coast as I recall. From all indications this storm will feature less heavy snow (in terms of water content), but significant wind will be a factor not only at the coast but also inland.

      1. March 29 1984 widespread power outages

        We have a generator hookup into house set up for specific zones. No generator at someone’s decree 🙂 :):)

    2. Well, if it’s true there’s a 970 something mb system coming, the area with snow falling at a temp of 30 to 34F is probably ripe for tree damage.

      I hope the 00z and 12z runs to come show that pressure plateauing or coming up a bit into the low/mid 980s which probably will still cause some issues in wet snow areas, but perhaps a little less so.

  91. It’s been a while since we have had a storm that impacts all the major east coast cities. Feeling bad for D.C folks because they are threading the needle on this one.

    1. I was watching a bit of TWC. They’ve (DC) had 1.6 inches or something like that for the season to date.

  93. Thanks for the answer to my question above TK. I know that it is out there, but I’m just trying to plan out crew rest periods. Generally, we need 2-5 hours to finish clean up after the snow finally stops accumulating. Once we start getting above 20 hours of work, we need to start making arrangements for crew rest.

    I’ll keep watching and reading in the meantime…

  100. 00z NAM
    12km is too high again.
    4km & 3km are more reasonable (in general).
    Amounts are down a little overall.
    Track is further west generally over the CCC with the rain line right to Boston on the higher res versions and a little closer to outer Cape & Nantucket on the lower rest versions.

    2. Anhhhhh I wish I’d waited till morning to read that. I’d have had sweeter dreams

      Sighhhhh. Thank you TK

      1. I’ll take it! Do you think the snow totals inland over CT and Worcester County will be closer to 10:1 or the Kuchera ratios (which look to me to be 12:1 or higher)?

  104. Note on the 0z NAM, the snow for Boston at 10:1 ratio is 19″ while the Kuchera snow is 17″. Similarly on the GFS, 10:1 snow is 16″ and Kuchera snow is 14″. This I presume is indicating a very heavy wet snow for Boston and points S & E.

    Further inland and over CT, the Kuchera snow totals are higher than the 10:1 snow ratios with the colder air and lower moisture content snow.

    I am thinking that the fact that this snow is occurring largely during the day is going to have minimal impact on accumulations given the intense rates the snow is going to be coming down at (2-4″/hour)

    2. With Boston S&E temps 32-34 it has no choice but to be a heavy, wet snow. Hopefully a neighbor will snowblow my front sidewalk. Not looking forward to shovel even though I actually enjoy it…not getting any younger. 😉

      1. The snow could still be moderate consistency or even dry with those surface temperatures. It depends on the temperature where the snow is “born”.

  105. Canadian model changes snow to rain in Boston and even Northshore area. What are the chances of that happening. Although it hammers NYC with close to 2 feet and no change over for them.

    1. See TK’s thoughts just above. I already asked that regarding a Boston changeover…not happening.

      1. Yea I didn’t think so. Still gives us a good amount even with it indicating a changover.
        Now on towards the euro!

        1. Harvey at 11 did mention a mix with sleet for awhile but precip still in frozen form. Otherwise, mostly snow.

  107. 0z Canadian has another potent Nor’easter late next weekend which dumps another foot or more of snow. GFS and Euro as of now keep it offshore.

  108. Haven’t had a chance to read everyone’s comments yet. After the thrashing that Lowell gave UNH today, was off celebrating the win and resulting trip to the Garden on Friday. Anyways, I’ve spent the last couple of hours going over everything, and writing up my Weekly Outlook. I’ll be writing up another detailed blog post just about the storm Monday afternoon before I head into the office. I’ll be spending Monday night in a hotel, not because I’m worried about driving home for the office, but because there’ll be no way I can get back in for my shift late Tuesday afternoon otherwise. For those that don’t know (which is pretty much everyone except TK), my shift is 6:30pm-2:30am, and I commute from Brockton to Nashua every day (long story).

    Anyways, my weekly outlook is here: https://stormhqblog.wordpress.com/2017/03/13/weekly-outlook-march-13-19-2017/

  109. Mark do you have the snow map for the euro? I can only see every 24 hours. It looks more west and boston sees some mixing.

  110. Wow, 0z Euro has come well west with the track now over SE MA. Mixing into Boston, providence and the north shore. Looks a lot like the CMC.

    0z Euro snowmap:
    https://s22.postimg.org/ltsyfx4b5/IMG_4912.png

    It has also gone completely bonkers with 20-30″ snows across the interior per the Eurowx.com snow maps. Jackpot is now in eastern NY state!

  111. Incredible model disparity between the American and international models 24 hours from the start of the storm! I feel for the mets in Eastern NY….Euro gives the Albany area 30″ while the GFS gives them closer to 10″!

  113. RPM model is also way west per Ryan Hanrahan post. Jackpot in PA and Upstate NY with 20″+ snows. This is looking more and more like a slop fest in eastern MA and RI unless the GFS is right.

  114. I saw someone post kuchera method snowfall ftom the euro. Gives boston 6 inches only and zilch for se mass. Huge bust potential if this confirms. For boston and se at least.

    1. Yeah, the snow map I posted above is similar to the kuchera method and has 6″ for Boston but rapidly ramping up to a foot in metro west and 2 feet+ in Worcester county. The inland snow totals are epic. Looks way overdone though. I just don’t see how that much snow can accumulate in such a short period of time.

    1. NWS in CYA mode with their wording now…especially east of I-95…will be interesting to if it wobbles any further 12z runs.

  117. Matt Noyes of NBC Boston has widespread 18-24″ which makes no sense to me given shift in track and possible changeover. I could understand pockets here and there but not widespread.

    2. Philip,

      The headline on NBC website isn’t helping but if you watch the video Matt has Boston in 18″ amounts with 2ft on north shore. He is very confident this will be a historic storm as it will be a wide spread 18-24in snowfall region wide with lots of power outages.

  118. JP Dave is not going to be pleased with the model runs this morning…I still think they are a little to far west.

  120. I don’t want to see any further west shift today. I’m all snow right now for the duration and hope it stays that way.

  121. Can someone explain Matt Noyes map of regionwide 18-24″? It only excludes Plymouth southward to the Cape. Makes absolutely no sense to me especially given the new track.

    Not to mention the storm moving along and not stalling.

    1. Thanks Tj. It will be interesting if his amounts verify. If anything, some mets are considering moving lesser amounts westward closer to Boston. We will see.

  124. I am not pleased with the latest runs to say the least, although I must say I am not surprised. This was a possibility all along. I hope there is a little wobble east with 12z runs, but I suspect they will be more West. Just can’t win.

    1. Don’t lose hope JP this happens all the time. They will come east. I rather a further east track as the snow maybe a little lighter consistency and not to heavy to give wide spread power outages. Also this storm is running into some mighty cold air I think models are off on this.

  125. Still will get a good dumping of snow before a change over. I am watching this one to as any further west I am not in the jackpot area as that will move into Upstate NY

  126. The 4km and 3km NAM stop the rain assault right at Boston with tons of snow for the city, so perhaps there is hope. Hope it holds for 12z runs. We shall see soon enough.

  128. From NWS this morning

    A major winter storm will impact the region Tuesday into Tuesday
    night with heavy snow, strong winds, and possible coastal
    flooding. The snow will likely change to rain near the coast.
    Blizzard conditions are possible along and just west of the I-95
    corridor.

  129. NWS despite what is posted on their discussion, still has blizzard watch up. I guess they think there is still a chance this wobbles east??????

  130. Southern New London southern Middlesex counties in CT had blizzard watch changed to winter storm warning since mixing will happen there and they will not meet blizzard criteria. Of course Upton is the NWS office for those counties.

  131. I think Matt Noyes did not initialize properly and is having connective feedback issues 🙂

    But seriously, I’m curious to know what he’s seeing that others are not.

  132. If for example, the EURO spits out 1.5 inches of melted for this storm, I’d bet even in the EURO op run, the first 80% of it is snow in Marshfield and perhaps 90% in Boston. I think the biggest difference btwn across SE Mass vs just SE of Chatham is the dry slot may arrive slightly quicker.

  133. I still feel very good confident in a track over the islands. Sure there will be mixing way south but I think 12 z euro will come east. Even if warmth comes up as Matt Noyes has it wouldn’t be until tail end of storm. I am sticking with 12-18 region wide except south coast and islands. Let’s see what our 12z runs have to say.

  134. New post. This is a shorter version as I won’t have time for a full update until mid afternoon today. There have been no changes made to the forecast at this point.

    More later…

  135. As much as I would like to see less snow, I think there are 2 factors that will occur. 1) The track will wobble east a bit on future runs which seems to happen more often than not when the east-west pendulum keeps swinging back and forth in the winter, and 2) the rain line cuts through after the majority of the snow falls.

    I’m not liking either one, but I am hard pressed to see less than 10″ in Boston and 12-16″ seems very plausible. (Just because I said that, the storm will now jump 25 miles to the east and bury B-town.)

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