Wednesday Forecast

182 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 15-19)
Beware of very icy surfaces today! Many of these will not melt off if they are not in direct sun for at least 2 hours, or treated thoroughly. The feel of mid winter continues as the cold pattern goes on. A few snow showers are possible today as an upper level low pressure area swings through the region. It will still be close enough on Thursday to create some additional cloudiness. By Friday, high pressure will bring dry, bright weather for St. Patrick’s Day. A broad low pressure trough is expected to cross the Northeast this weekend and bring the next round of unsettled weather to southern New England with mix/snow possible. Not quite sure how this plays out yet.
TODAY: Sun to start, then clouds and scattered snow showers this afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Lows 18-25. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 30-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 20-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 34-42. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Chance of snow/mix. Lows 22-30. Highs 35-42.
SUNDAY: Chance of mix/snow. Lows 28-35. Highs 35-42.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 20-24)
Snow/mix may linger March 20 then another risk of unsettled weather in the March 22-24 period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 25-29)
One more storm threat around March 26, otherwise a drier trend. Temperatures near to below normal.

182 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK. Reposting below from previous blog

    My walk to the train this morning is the reason why school was cancelled. There is no way kids should have to walk on what I did this morning. Nearly fell multiple times and I am very fit, agile young guy. So before people question why school was closed come into the city and see for yourself. I am sure in suburbia everything is fine because most kids don’t walk but I can tell you BPS was 100% correct in their decision

  5. Thank you TK. It’s been an interesting read the last few days. Between the meteorologists, the student meteorologists, the weather enthusiasts, the links, the maps, the videos, and all the explanations and theories, you have a great blog here. Much appreciated, all of it.

  6. I kind of jumped right into the madness yesterday and didn’t get a chance to introduce myself. I’m Jeff from Lakeville, MA. I don’t have a background in weather but I’m a general science nerd and control freak. Since I can’t control the weather the next best option is to try and understand it and so I try and learn as much as I can. I look forward to learning as much as possible here. While I don’t have the forecasting knowledge, I do have a weather station pushing updates to Weather Underground that can provide some in the field information as to what’s going on.

    Thanks everyone!

    3. Hi Again, Jeff. Thank you for introducing yourself. Lakeville is lovely area. I have a weather station also….in a box in my basement. I really need to get it set up………hint to anyone who would like dinner or lunch 🙂 And a control freak………hmmm, I might know one of those….or perhaps, be one of those. I like the perspective that understanding weather is the next best thing to not being able to control it.

    4. Welcome again JeffW. What is your station ID? I have one on Weather Underground as well.

      MY Sister-in-Law has a place on Assawompset Pond, so I have spent many
      a day in lakeville. Beautiful community.

      I am very passionate about the weather and am prone to going over the top sometimes. I mean no harm. 😀

      1. I actually live on Long Pond which is the recreational pond in town. My property isn’t actually waterfront but like Facebook reminded me yesterday, it was 7 years ago when we had that all of the flooding rain in March which brought the pond into my back yard.

        My weather station is https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMALAKEV8
        It’s been up for over a year but it’s hard to find a great spot in the yard that will give me the best accuracy. When the wind is blowing from the north or northwest, trees can block the rain and my rain totals are then inaccurate. Finding a new home for the weather station is one of my spring projects this year.

        2. I think my anemometer is frozen at this time as the wind has done nothing since yesterday and my run this morning proves otherwise.

    5. Hi Jeff. Welcome to active contribution. I only recently became active myself after reading the blog for many years (and getting updates from TK on BBS’s lol). Everyone here is awesome. 🙂

  7. I know a lot of people feel that storm underachieved (maybe not here) but that was one heck of a storm. In Pelham, NH we got about 15 inches and the winds were incredible. It wasn’t the most snow I have seen but I will remember this storm.

    1. N&W of Boston was a different story, but in the city it was a let down.

      I am a very difficult person to please, so needless to say I was quite
      disappointed yesterday. Not that it changed to rain as expected. That
      was not the big deal. The big deal was the utter FAILURE of those so-called
      intense bands to deliver.

      Why? I don’t pretend to know for sure. Something in the dynamics, because
      clearly those bands were NOT as strong in my area.

      Also, a contributing factor was the snow ratio, which was pretty low. So even though it was snowing hard, it was not accumulating fast enough. The snow
      was like cement. And the the most intense snow for what it was worth, did
      not last all that long.

      The wind was there, however, making it a true storm for sure.

      All in All, I’d take yesterday over an OTS or all Rain scenario. 😀 See I am trying.

      1. I completely feel your pain. I admit I usually get hyped up and then feel some disappointment after it is over if we didn’t reach the snow expectations. I took a walk in the height of the storm and I felt like I was on a different planet. A little scary and beautiful all at the same time.

        1. I don’t think that we reached our bottom number. But as TK had said, it wasn’t the number that was going to define the storm. It had so many great components. I agree it was beautiful and, yes, a little scary ….. an exhilarating scary.

          Alas, I did not lose power (I am holding Tom solely responsible) but it just means I have to hope harder for the next storm. And earth day is approaching and you know the lights will be off in this house 🙂

          1. Thanks, I am on it daily and comment occasionally , no doubt it is the best resource for weather.

  8. Thanks for this TK.

    It was definitely treacherous travelling today. Walking even worse. Some plow company totally walled off the entrance to our parking lot at work. I got in early and was watching people drive up to the entrance and then have to reverse and enter in through the exit. Then this guy in a Ford f150 was trying to plow the business across the street out and doing an awful job of it. I made a timelapse because of course that’s something I would do. Enjoy: https://youtu.be/AnOEmZr9abQ and part 2: https://youtu.be/Pc-UYeoQhQo

      1. I love the way our town plows. But the same person does our two streets every storm, using a huge town plow. He brings a good portion of the snow from both streets to the T where the streets meet, forms a large pile, backs up, then plows it onto the neighbors lawn. He can go back and forth over a dozen times several times a day. It is as entertaining as it gets……and yes, it takes very little to entertain me.

    3. I’m laughing till I’m crying. Those are hysterical. Thank you. GREAT way to begin the day with a laugh. Music was awesome too. I was dancing in my chair.

  9. TK,

    Any significance to this:

    SATURDAY: Chance of snow/mix. Lows 22-30. Highs 35-42.
    SUNDAY: Chance of mix/snow. Lows 28-35. Highs 35-42.

    Is snow/mix more potent than mix/snow?

    Just curious. 😀
    And busting your chops.

        1. Funny.

          Different minds think differently.

          I read them both as a chance of snow and/or mix.
          😀

          1. But you could easily be correct. We need TK
            to clarify this absolutely mind shattering distinction.

    2. TK is mixing his snow forecasts with alcohol because he’s sick of people asking for amounts five days out. lol

        1. IF it just evolves a little quicker, it could be pretty interesting in Eastern SNE. Probably will NOT materialize, but certainly something to monitor.

          Wonder what the 12Z run will show????????

        1. In this scenario, looks like it wants to hit all the areas that missed out on snow yesterday. (Assuming boundary layer is cold enough)

          1. Time will tell, but IF I had to guess now (3-4 days out), I’d say it doesn’t happen. BUT, stranger things have certainly happened. 😀

            1. You know what will happen? It’s going to look like it will be off the coast and then it will dump a foot just because mother nature wants people to hate meteorologists lol

      1. That’s not my house. That is the old Eliot School House about 700 feet from my house. They hold all sorts of instructional classes
        there. My wife’s cousin is on the board of directors.

  14. Thanks TK.
    BDL up to 60.7 inches of snow for the winter. I was way off with my prediction this year for that location. First time ever where accumulating snow happened in October above normal snowfall for the winter. The average is 40.5 inches.
    This from Ryan Hanrahan
    15.7″ is the biggest March snowstorm on record for the Hartford area – exceeding the March 1993 “superstorm”.

  18. Thanks, TK.

    It’s mid January cold today, in spite of the sun. The ice on the side roads, sidewalks, and paths was brutal. Hadi, you’re 100% right. It would have been hard and in some cases unsafe for kids to have to get to school this morning.

    What an incredible stretch of truly cold weather this month. Winter got off the mat alright. He might be an old man and may be running on fumes, but he’s got spring staggering. I think spring got a little cocky at the end of February and left his guard down.

  19. If yesterday’s storm took a track similar to what the Euro is showing for this weekend, Boston would have been buried. The dry slot and mix/rain would have been non-issues.

      1. Yes, but as a result of rapidly intensifying soon enough. Should this weekend storm bomb out sooner, that track, albeit outside of the BM, would give Boston a good dumping of snow. As of now, a front looks to sweep across the area with an area of low pressure developing but too far to our east. If it develops sooner, we’re in for it.

  20. The weekend snow threat one to watch. If it backs up a little bit from the current position the 0z EURO is showing things will get interesting.

  21. 12Z GFS looking interestinger and interestinger. (I know that is not a word, but I like it!)
    For the weekend I mean. 😀

      2. My definition would be something that was very interesting
        and getting more interesting with time. (but then you very well know that anyway, but I thought I would humor you)

        And just in case it is not clear, look at this:

        Examples

        This was becoming interestinger and interestinger, and I was becoming curiouser and curiouser about exactly who these people were.

        Hey, you got your thetan in my cult! Well you got your cult all up in my thetan! « raincoaster
        As they say, things are getting “interestinger and interestinger.”

        The Price of Imperial Arrogance
        CAFFERTY: It just gets interestinger and interestinger.

        CNN Transcript Aug 28, 2004
        It’s getting interestinger and interestinger as they said in “Alice in Wonderland.”

        CNN Transcript – Special Event: Presidential Race to Be Decided by Florida Results; GOP Retains Control of House; Control of Senate Remains in Doubt – November 7, 2000
        “Things are getting interestinger and interestinger.”

        Marjorie Dean, High School Freshman
        Whyte’s comments were interesting, and got interestinger, until I came to this:

        1. Imagine you used the word interesting instead. If I said define interesting it would mean “please, tell me why you find it interesting.” You used interestinger instead. So I didn’t get an explanation on why you found the 12z GFS interestinger. I got an explanation of interestinger. This is why the English language is a fickle mistress and it’s easy to miscommunicate, but I loved your definition nonetheless. lol!

  23. A couple of weeks ago we mentioned March of 1956 as a possible analogy for March 2017. I know TK is not fond of similes or analogies. He’s right to point out that no two Marches are identical. Atmospheric conditions differ, etc … However, I can’t help but think that this year is similar in some ways to March 1956. First, the winter leading up to March 1956 was mild like this year, perhaps even more mild than this winter. Second, March 1956 featured several sustained incursions of arctic air – actually a bit later in the month than this year, but still. Third, March 1956 turned out to be the winter’s biggest snow producing month. This hasn’t happened yet in Boston and vicinity (February is still ahead, I believe), but it could very well happen.

    1. Yes we did or should I say you did and I confirmed. 😀

      Who knows about this month, but with this cold pattern, I suppose
      we can’t rule it out altogether.

      Waiting on that Euro for Sunday to see how it sees the atmoshpheric
      conditions with the 12Z run.

  24. Usually when you get a snowstorm in March it warms up the next day. Today feels like the day after a snowstorm in January and February where highs in the 20s.
    We may not be done with the snow as this weekend is a watcher.

  25. I saw that Logan had a total of 6.6 inches yesterday. Is that accurate?

    IF so, Boston is now ABOVE AVERAGE for season snowfall totals.
    Amazing, considering how mild the Winter was. Tk always did say that
    it would be mild, but occasional cold shots with storm threats. Fantastic job
    turned in by TK.

  26. Eric Fisher tweeted last night 6.6 for Boston and then showed the graphic with Boston having 45.8 inches of snow so far.
    Of course we see if will be adding to that seasonal snowfall this weekend.

  27. Well, the 12z GFS ….

    don’t like this run today ….

    which is ….. the low intensifying slowly as it passes southeast of the Cape, due to the timing that occurs …. at night. If that timing occurs, I think some snowfall could possibly be realized, in what looks like a marginal March air mass.

    If that scenario literally happens 12 hrs earlier or 12 hrs later, than lower elevations of eastern Mass would have a better chance of seeing less accumulation.

  28. I know that 84 hours isn’t exactly in the NAM’s wheelhouse, but I present the following anyway.

    Surface

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017031512/namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

    Doesn’t that suggest a possible Inverted Trough?

    500MB

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017031512&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=206

    Doesn’t this suggest some serious development of said storm system?

    The big question will be how close to us does the main precipitation shield come.

    We shall see.

  29. Unless something pops very soon, is it safe to kiss the possible snow showers good-bye?

    Radar is clean

  33. GFS wants to deliver a some snow for Saturday but if it comes during the day I don’t think we get to those totals the GFS shows which are not impressive of all.

    2. Keep in mind the “beyond 3-days” rule. I could look out that far and find 4 opportunities.

  37. Euro has a “Colorado Low” at hour 192. Most of the time, not always, but most those
    become CUTTERS. We shall see this time.

      1. There is much warmth and rain with this. Of course, just because the Euro shows something 10 days in advance, does NOT mean it is so. 😀

  39. The WBZ Accuweather mets predicted 55 inches for Boston. To reach that amount Boston needs an additional 9.2 inches. Based on the current pattern, they certainly have a decent shot imo.

    Total snowfall to date = 45.8″

    1. And my guess was something like 61.4 inches or thereabouts.

      So I need about 15 inches. Not likely, but “possible”.

      1. A tall order indeed but if we get multiple events, you never know. You are not out of our contest just yet. Even one biggie would do it. 🙂

    1. Boston Nexrad now. These are very low topped snow showers. They go
      from East of Springfield to West of Albany. If they hold together, they
      will put down a minor accumulation, say 1/2 inch upwards of 2 inches or so.

      https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24826821&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

        1. Yup, understood that. And that is why they actually may hold together. Looking a bit like it is getting stronger, but that may be that it is simply getting closer to the radar. 😀

  42. Sue to answer your question above:

    Yes, but but because the storm to our south isn’t projected to rapidly intensify soon enough. Should this weekend storm bomb out sooner and closer to the coast, that track, albeit outside of the BM, would give Boston a good dumping of snow. As of now, a front looks to sweep across the area with a possible area of low pressure developing but too far to our east. If it develops sooner, we’re in for it.

    1. Agree, so far (always subject to change) it “appears” that it will develop
      too far off shore.

      So for snow we would need:

      1. It to develop close enough to shore to through the precipitation field
      back into Eastern SNE.
      2. A development of a decent inverted trough extending back from the
      developing low to the remains of the parent low well to the North West.
      Hopefully setting up the trough on a SE to NW axis slicing right across
      SNE. Now admittedly this is way too much to hope for, but one never
      knows. 😀 It’s not totally impossible. I see a few subtle signs. Does NOT
      mean it would happen.

  43. The upper low coming along this weekend, as I stated somewhere else on the net, will resemble a water balloon wobbling through the air. The orientation of this will be the deciding factor in what happens here.

      1. I can’t really picture in my mind a water balloon wobbling through the air. Can you explain further, TK?

        1. I can, Rather vividly, actually. Picture an hour glass rotating if you must. 😀 Except the balloon would have many more position possibilities.

      2. Turned out he may have been the one who had closest numbers for yesterday. It’s why I listen to him :)…..well,,as a disclaimer, I didn’t see that he had lowered his numbers…I was told. I don’t really listen to anyone now but TK

        2. And co finding to add to that since I am having a grand time talking to myself. Eric said that numbers do not matter as much as timing, impact, intensity. I think he is reading you, TK. He also said maybe 3″ this weekend. Pete just said he has 2-4 floating around in his head ….

          I like when they are open with what may be but make it clear it is simply to give us an idea

          2. I don’t have a problem with that as long as
            they don’t put it out on a map. Just ideas at the moment that may need to be tossed. 😀

            1. I don’t have a problem with any of it. My problem is more with people who have yet to figure out that it will change. I think I am a curmudgeon

            2. Pete did, in fact put those numbers I posted on a map which highlighted those locations as well.

              1. I tried to find it but could not. Could be gone or I’m looking incorrectly. Either way, as I said, I have no problem with it. I understand others do and that is their right of course

              2. I do have a problem with numbers being placed on a map this far ahead when there is no certainty an event wowould happen. Just tossing out ahead verbal guess a heads to what kind of accumuation there might be, is fine. Imho.

              3. I’m still looking. Perhaps was during the 4:30 hour. I have a few scenarios of why it doesn’t bother me but why people who don’t know better do but they are political so we will leave it as one of the few times we disagree 🙂

  44. I just spent a few minutes standing on the top rail of my fence frantically spinning my anemometer trying to free it from the grasp of ice. Each time I gave it a good manual spin, little pieces of ice fell out of it. I’m sure my neighbors were getting a good show.

    2. Sounds like something I would do. However, I was smarter. I did that yesterday
      while it was raining and got it all out BEFORE it froze. 😀 😀 😀

  45. Looks like the snow showers went poof. Perhaps a wee bit of a convective nature and the sun is gone????

  50. patriots have been extremely Busy.
    Defense.
    Hightower (resigned today)
    Gilmore ( from Bills)
    Branch resigned
    Duron Harmon
    Lawerence Guy
    Hopefully patriots can keep Butler

    Offense.
    Dwayne Allen
    Brandin Cooks
    Rex Burken ( only iffy addition I think)

    Gronk is also looking healthy though I think he only has until his contract is up.
    Hoping Blount is resigned.
    patriots are loaded.

    2. Hightower resigned? Huh what. I heard he was signing with the pats. Defense will suck without him.

        1. Well you need to be careful.

          Resign means to quite, leave a job/position

          Re-sign means to sign again.

          That is why you confused me.

  54. All good , I have been around for about 3 years on this sight,I have a small engine repair business as well as my day job, you guys have been awesome for info. Thank you

    1. Byebye to Calgary’s 10-game winning streak. 🙂

      Bruins win 5-2 in Calgary after a 6-3 win in Vancouver Monday night. Heading to Edmonton for Thursday night game.

  56. Canadian model shows 15 inches of snow for Nantucket for the weekend storm. Not saying that’s what will happen, bUT either way storm is too far southeast when it redevelops

    1. Yeah that’s probably high as far as a snow forecast goes that far out. But I have a weird feeling about this thing…

  60. good morning.

    TK has a weird feeling about this weekend as the models seem to be trending towards
    a swing and a miss. With what happened with this last storm, I guess we don’t write it
    off just yet.

    some model totals for boston

    sref down to 1.26
    euro 0.2 inches
    gfs 3 inches
    nam zippo
    canadian 1 inch

    1. This morning’s nws discussion. take away: energy coming on shore this morning. 12z runs should get a better handle on this.

      Building ridge over the Rockies into the high plains yields downstream
      trough amplification over the northeast with clipper type low intensifying
      as it tracks from the Great Lakes Sat to somewhere south of New England
      Sat night into Sun. The question becomes how far south does system
      dig? 00z GFS has trended farther south closer to previous runs of
      the EC with clipper low tracking just south of 40N Sat and then just
      southeast of 40N/70W Sat night into Sun morning. This track would
      favor all snow. The only potential rain/snow mix across Nantucket.
      However way too early to lock into a single solution/outcome. If
      trough digs farther south per new 00z EC the result will be less
      qpf/snowfall. However if clipper low tracks farther north closer
      to the coast rain-snow line may impact the south coast but also higher
      snow potential across CT/RI and interior southeast MA. Just too early
      to lock into a given solution/scenario as jet energy with this system
      is still off the west coast of British Columbia, coming onshore this
      morning into a more data rich area. Thus could see 12z runs trend
      in a different direction.

      1. difficult to say with the ukmet, but looks close enough to bring some snow in here.

        I’d like TK to expound on his weird feeling. 😀

  61. Barry put up a snow map showing a coating to 2″ … the 2″ more likely in southern MA. Said he did not expect much. I am wondering if TK’s weird feeling = (different track + secondary development)?

  62. Slight delay on the new update… Will let you know. It will probably be a short, not-many-changes update that I will edit later.

  63. Good morning.

    Is this the first time snow has hung around this winter for more than a few days?

  64. Good morning to my weather family. I too am intrigued by TK’s weird feeling. When TK throws out a thought like that, we need to listen. 🙂

  65. TK: Weird Feeling

    You have us all going here….

    So what is this feeling?

    1. Track is perfect for development to throw accumulating snow shield into our area.
    2. Track is not so perfect, but an inverted trough develops over our area providing
    accumulating snow.
    3. Track is perfect and as storm departs, an inverted trough hangs over our area
    extending the snow for even larger accumulations.
    4. Some combination of any of the above.

    C’mon TK. You tease the crap out of us sometimes. You must realize some sick pleasure doing so. 😀 😀 😀

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