Thursday Forecast

138 Comments

8:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 16-20)
Forecast update only. Discussion added later.
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 30-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 20-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 34-42. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Chance of snow/mix. Lows 22-30. Highs 35-42.
SUNDAY: Chance of mix/snow. Lows 28-35. Highs 35-42.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 21-25)
Risk of unsettled weather in the March 22-24 period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 26-30)
One more storm threat around March 26, otherwise a drier trend. Temperatures near to below normal.

138 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. My oldest grandson is a huge fan of Alice in Wonderland. He got a big kick out of your interestinger comment.

    1. Thanks again for this.

      FWIW, right now I’d go with the NWS map. 😀
      Of course, subject to change.

      2. Speaking of the NWS maps. What on earth takes those snow maps so long to render? Do they have someone hand drawing them each time a request is made? I assume they’re static images based on the timestamp but every time I view those snow maps I have to walk away or die of boredom.

    2. Were they a little slow to update the forecast?

      Didn’t they have blizzard warnings up that never materialized and it snowed for a bit and went over to rain, at least where most of the people live in NJ. 😀

    3. I used to be a fan of his. I wish people would simply do their own job…..especially those who live in glass houses.

  5. Regarding weekend “possible” snow or no snow.

    Reminder what the NWS said earlier today:

    Jet energy with this system is still off the west coast of British Columbia (earlier this morning), coming onshore this morning into a more data rich area. Thus could see 12z runs trend in a different direction.

    So the 12Z runs will have the benefit of better sampled upper air data.

    Which way will it go? It will probably be the same, but who knows. 😀

      1. More on this weekend. Looking at 12Z NAM as it spits out data.

        Some thoughts:

        1. tomorrow is modeled to be COLDER than previously thought.
        2. Rigorous 500Mb short wave dropping through the Lakes.
        3. Fairly potent attendant clipper with that short wave.

        Put it all together, should it come out on the coast in the right
        spot, it could throw some decent snow our way. SHould it come out too far South, then some other magic would have to happen (ie inverted trough??? possible, but NOT etched in stone)

        In short it is STILL a watcher.

        To me, it looks more potent than previously.

  6. I’m no expert on this stuff, but it “looks” to me as if this clipper is going to come
    out on the coast more North than previously modeled (TK’s Weird feeling????).
    Let’s see how full of do do I am. 😀

    1. It’s out to hour 51 or 15Z Saturday and it still looks like it is going to Reach the coast more North. I’ll probably be dead wrong, but that is what it looks like.
      Also, closed 500MB low with the clipper. 200MB looks ready to amplify.
      This is looking interesting, but hey, I’m probably looking for something that’s
      not there.

      1. Ok, getting a clearer picture. The clipper itself would have come more North, but it “appears” that it wants to redevelop off shore
        farther SE. Ahh so that is the problem. Stay tuned.

              1. I think on this run it’s going to stay just far enough off shore.

                Btw, the CMC had the same idea
                last evening.

  8. Ok, 12Z NAM run is complete. Very close call.
    Gives far SE SNE a moderate event. Light event up to Boston.

    Here it is at 84 hours, starting to fill already

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017031612&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    Kuchera snow map. You can see the path of the clipper and then the redeveloped
    coastal

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017031612&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    A slight wobble in this would bring a moderate event up to Boston, so it’s still a watcher.

    Apparently the better sampled upper air did MAKE a difference.

  9. Ok, done with the overboard posts. I was bored running programs and routines at work and posting while waiting for results. 😀

    I’ll hold off until the GFS is in. 😀

  10. Very close call JP. Definitely a watcher. Reminds me of several of the storms in the winter of 2015.

  15. Tk besides this weekend storm threat, do you see any other storm threats or are we done. I know it can very well snow in april like last year but do you see any storms ( that will produce 6 or more inches) after this weekend?

  16. 12Z Euro is a COMPLETE SWING AND A MISS for the weekend. Not a snowflake to
    be seen in SNE. 😀

    IS that a wrap? What you say Mr. TK?

  17. Looks like the NAM stands alone for this weekend. NOT very often that the NAM
    standing alone turns out to be correct. 😀 Almost all of the time, it comes around to
    the general consensus.

  18. Tim, As you know, it’s generally hard for Cape Cod to get snow once we hit March. This said, because the weekend system is predicted to be mostly off-shore should it inch closer it may become a CC and the Islands special. Personally, I love Cape Cod snowstorms. Also, knowing how the topography/geography of the peninsula can be radically transformed by major storms is intriguing to me.

    1. The way it is looking, not even the outer Cape sees any snow.

      I suppose there is time and things could change, but right now not looking
      good.

      We still haven’t been clued into what TK’s weird feeling was. I wonder if the
      feeling is now gone since he has had a chance to review the 12Z guidance. 😀

          2. We still have more cold coning back next midweek which should still mean a few more chances for snow. Reread TK’s outlook above.

  19. After this weekend, the GFS shows a squadron of CUTTERS.

    The 25th, the 29th and April 1st.

    Pretty difficult to get snow this time of year with those suckers.

    Now this could change. The storm for Tuesday at a week or more out the GFS depicted
    a Cutter.

  20. Hey Matt:

    True and funny story from yesterday. I was reading your post about the Patriots players and their status.
    You typed:
    “Hightower resigned”
    I panicked because I quickly read “resigned” (as in quit) and you meant re”signed” as in a four-year contract.
    I went to ESPN.com and Boston.com terribly upset until I saw the real story.

    I have been laughing about that for the past 24 hours! Whew, am I relieved!

    1. Look at yesterday’s blog. I commented on that exact same thing.

      We have to be careful with words. Type in the wrong word and it REALLY
      changes things.

    1. Pivotal Weather 10:1 Snow map

      http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017031618/084/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

      Pivotal Weather Kucher Snow Map

      http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017031618/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png

      I am not convinced this is all real until I see some agreement with another model (other than SREF).

      SREF would actually bring the snow farther North than the NAM.

      How about some agreement with the GFS?

      Now, to be fair, that was the 18z run.

      Let’s see IF the 0Z run is similar or close to this.

  26. Hate to see some good snowfall totals to the east of me as NAM shows. GFS past few runs has been aggressive snowfall amounts in my area.

  28. Gonna be a little delay in my commentary etc. Just found out with very short notice that parent conference was moved to tonight at 6PM at my son’s school, and I have to pick up a friend’s car right after that.

    #notimeforme

    haha!

    I’ll be back – eventually.

    1. No problem TK! As long as you are ok. I was actually getting concerned about your personal well being since your absence. 🙂

      1. Oh I’m fine. I took my mom out shopping so we could bring home corned beef, potatoes, cabbage, carrots, parsnip, and turnip. I mean if you’re gonna do a boiled dinner – do it right! She’s making it for us all tomorrow but she’s having the prep work done for her first. 🙂

  29. My concern is for an axis of heavy snow somewhere in a general east-west line Saturday night and/or Sunday morning for several hours along a trough line with good convergence. It may be an area that overperforms average model forecasts.

    I have no real idea where it would be so for now the entire area is subject to it, although it will probably end up fairly narrow.

    More later… Gotta run!

      1. I suspect that axis will be south, if not well south of the Pike. I say no way it comes anywhere near Boston.

      1. Axis and Allies is one of the great strategy board games of all time. I started playing that as a kid and me and my 17 year old son have been playing for years. He kicks my ass all the time
        Now. I can’t beat him.

  35. i meant any snow south of the pike is a waste…… i been skiing today.the mix of it being my first full day… breaking in equipment and kind out of shape made one tired person so i called it a day and next to a fire talking to people. i just jecked my phone quick to see where the possible clipper was going and said my above comment… I became distracted by someone;)

  36. It’s getting interestinger and interestinger.

    Latest 21Z SREF ensemble mean now up to 5.27 inches for Boston.

    0Z NAM cranking now.

  37. I’ve been reading up a bit on today’s news story …. “Did the national weather service mislead the public about the blizzard” because while they were telling governors one thing, the models were saying another on Monday, the day before the storm.

    My comment isn’t going to be about whether that sentiment is correct or not.

    It just really makes me concerned that now, even more of the public won’t take warnings seriously on a storm down the road that will deliver or even over perform on what’s being predicted.

    Not good.

    2. Tom I was reading also. And I also agree. What were they thinking

      I also believe our politicians can set a standard. Christie tossed meteorologists in general under the bus but he has done so in the past. Baker stated first and foremost now mets had helped him but to have knowledge and not share it this time he felt was wrong. I am paraphrasing. But it is a good example IMO of how an adult handles a situation. In both cases, I’m not sure their decisioning woild have been different although I’m not as familiar with NJ of course.

      Still if NWS didn’t share accurate info…what the heck

      2. Chris Christies comments I don’t care for. I guess he has a short memory with Sandy.

        We’re talking 1, maybe 2F here.

        Certainly, the NWS could have put out their latest thoughts and they will have to try to earn the trust of those in the public they may have lost.

        But I also think the governors may not be thinking of the consequences of their comments going public.

        I just have this vision of a big hurricane headed for landfall and people not heeding warnings or evacuations and end up with loss of life that didn’t need to happen.

        1. I also thought of sandy. Christie has repeatedly criticized mets. And I agree also. While Baker complimented meteorologists, he really didn’t have to say anything. What would he have done differently.

          I also have the same fear of people not listening.

    3. The public is not off the hook. As a society, we’ve become over conditioned that fault and blame often resides somewhere else. When I was in high school there was a blizzard warning issued one late afternoon. I didn’t study for a test to be taken the next day only to wake up to blinding sunshine over clear blue sky’s and subsequently failed the test. My fault for failing the test or NWS and Dick Albert’s fault for missing on a model interpretation?

      Storm warnings and some events in general life are based on probabilities. If there’s a 90% chance of anything, there’s also 10% chance of something else.

      I don’t anyone who’s 100% accurate in anything they do every day. Blame is becoming an easier and easier and a more socially acceptable out these days and its just so morally bankrupt. If people don’t take the next warning seriously because they let the 10% chance on the previous event cloud what should be instinctive, sound judgement, then that’s the choice they make and I won’t shed much sympathy for them. Government, media, forecasters and even each one of us can’t be all things for all people.

      Whew, I feel better. Thanks for the indulgence.

      2. Wow….wow….wow. I wish I could have said it that well.

        That is why I react to blame and finger pointing.

        Easily one of the best comments I have heard/read in a very long while. Thank you.

  38. Ironically, if this weekend feature ends up too far south of us, I think it will be because the big trof that helped support our early week storm didn’t get out of the way enough or in time.

    We’re still under the influence of it and that feature only slowly moves out of New England and away to the northeast towards Labrador and then the North Atlantic Ocean. I think it’s just close enough to nudge this feature to our south.

  39. Pete Bouchard was talking about a weekend storm. It was a promo, so I do not
    know what he actually really meant. Sounded foreboding.

  40. The NWS in NYC may get tested again this weekend.

    Seems a common signal is to extend that trof back close to NYC.

    Watch them get 6″ or something like that.

    I think the 3 northern New England states may see some sun by Sunday, with it being cloudier in southernmost New England.

  42. I think this is going to be one of those spring New England events, when on Sunday, it’s 33F and snowing in NYC and Nantucket and further north in northern New England, some place will be sunny and 42F.

  44. Interesting. Now the GFS wants to play ball a little bit bringing a light snowfall all
    the way to the Boston Area.

  45. Good Morning,

    It looks like the models overnight have moved a bit further north. JP will definitely like the 3km NAM. Will see what the 12z runs say today. I could see us getting more snow this sunday than we did with the last storm around Boston. The trend is your friend.

  46. From Upton NY. INTERESTING
    Something to watch however is if models follow EMCWF’s a trend in having the shortwave/closed low digging deeper south before emerging off the Atlantic Seaboard. This in turn would slow down the forward progression of the coastal low as well as have it trend towards a track closer to 40N/70W benchmark.

      1. Plenty of snow up north. Jay Peak had had 5 feet in the last week. Skiing is the best it’s been in many years.

  50. From reading some mets on twitter it’s better to use mesoscale models with a system like his vs global models. I would imagine they see small scale features better. I think we need to keep an eye on the UL and see where it sets up shop. Should dicatate how far north the system can come.

  51. Good morning and Happy St. Patrick’s Day.

    Although I am not totally Irish, my Grandmother on my Father’s Side was.
    My wife absolutely is.

    TJ said I’d like the 3km NAM. Nice.
    The SREF is nice as well. SREF has not backed down one bit.
    The NAM has been advertising this event all along.
    The CMC is closed and delivers quite a bit of snow to MV.

    I’ll Post a few selected maps next post. 😀

  54. The 3KM Does not go far enough to get the totals, but here is a partial.

    Surface at 18Z Sunday

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031706/nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_60.png

    10;1 snow at that point

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031706/nam3km_asnow_neus_61.png

    Please note: as with the last storm, have to be careful with 10:1 maps as ratio
    may be lower than that. Alos, that surface is 18Z which would have nearly maximum
    sun angle. Both could affect totals.

    Here is the latest SREF

    12 Hour Snow ending 15Z Sunday

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f060.gif

    Ensemble Members. Mean Snow for Boston: 5.41 inches

    http://imgur.com/a/K7fBp

  55. It should be noted that the 0Z Euro, now has system closer than yesterday and not
    a complete swing and a miss, but still only delivers a coating to 1/2 to boston and
    only an inch or 2 well to the Southeast of Boston. BUT it has moved closer.

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