Saturday Forecast

83 Comments

9:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 18-22)
High pressure tries to hang on today as a low pressure area dives southeastward from the Great Lakes toward the Mid Atlantic Coast. This initial low will send some cloudiness into the region later today and perhaps some areas of very light to light snow tonight. The low will redevelop south and southeast of New England Sunday then take its time departing through Monday. This will bring a threat of snow and rain to eastern MA and RI Sunday and Sunday night with some lingering drops and flakes into Monday over eastern areas. Monday is the occurrence of the Vernal Equinox, or in more simple terms, the first day of spring. But we’ll have to wait until Tuesday to have a day that feels a little more like spring. But in typical New England fashion, that will be a tease, as an arctic air mass plunges out of Canada and arrives here on Wednesday.
TODAY: Sunshine fading behind increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A few periods of very light to light snow with only a few dustings possible.. Lows 20-27. Wind light N to NE.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain and snow, becoming mainly snow, especially RI and eastern MA, with some accumulation of up to 1 or 2 inches except locally heavier, with most accumulation occurring on unpaved surfaces and during the evening hours. Highs 30-37. Lows 22-30. Wind light NE to N early then increasing to 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts Cape Cod area.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. A bit of light rain/snow possible eastern areas early. Highs 37-44.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 20-27. Highs 45-53.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 15-22. Highs 28-35.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 23-27)
Dry and cold to start then a warm-up follows. A flip to colder late in the period will probably be preceded by rain then mix/snow for parts of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)
Another episode of unsettled weather is most likely during the early to middle of this period. Temperatures moderate then cool again.

83 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

      1. I don’t think anyone was expecting big snow in Boston to start with. The question has been how much steady snow gets into eastern MA and how long does it linger. That’s still a question at this point.

    1. Not sure about yours in Woburn. In sutton it is longest it has lasted and it has a solid layer of ice on top….enough to walk on. If you pull that layer up, it is nice and fluffy underneath

  8. Thanks TK !

    I’d try to answer your question above, but there isn’t any snow over down here. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Still here Tom but I have an estimate in marshfield and customer said no snow in her yard down past the dump .

    1. Thanks again! Love how you provide these with all these maps.

      Fox 25 is still too high with their numbers. Not sure why forecasters just can’t make a forecast knowing that the numbers likely won’t verify rather than just trimming numbers back from shift to shift. I know…I know…pressures from management but this is how viewers become misguided.

    2. And another good example of why I don’t put #’s on things until I do. Yet some were applying numbers a few days ago…

        1. Interesting that NBC Boston has absolutely no snow whatsoever north of Providence and if that actually ends up to be the final solution.

          1. The discussions about such things here don’t bother me. I would hope that most people reading and participating in comments know that there is nothing “official” there. They can also delineate between the opinions of a meteorologist versus a non-meteorologist regarding the analysis of past, current, or upcoming weather.

            WHW’s “official” forecast appears in the actual blog entry. The commentary is the whipped cream on the sundae.

  11. Personally I think this event is being over-scrutinized before it even gets here. Local society has grown obsessed with it in recent years it seems. About 15 years ago, we’d get a forecast, know that the best shot at snow was southeastern MA, let it play out, know it was late in the season and apply that thinking, and deal with it either way…

    I’m just making forecasts for it as best I can. I understand what may and probably will not happen. It’s not a contest, or a bet, or an “I told you so” or “My thinking from 6 days ago remains unchanged” or any of that. It’s just weather, and trying to predict it.

    1. Well said, TK. Society….people….media…..and social media. People demand to know what will happen. Media management plays to that. If the forecast is right, they win. But if the forecast isn’t right, they still win. Either way their media source gets attention. And in the middle are the guys who are, like you, trying to give the best forecast they can…..because they love what they do. I don’t get why people cannot step back and figure that out.

            1. I don’t think you are high msaintence. It was the term I have to think about. Should have made that clear.

    2. Agreed re scrutinization. I think the difference between now vs 15 years ago is ratings (for TV, clickthrus and reshares for the Internet) and a bit of overconfidence in forecast models. Mix those two together in a race to get the most eyeballs and you have our current climate for these “it’s still five days away but we think we’re getting a blizzard.” forecasts. Also might mix in a dash of peer pressure. “The other stations/blogs/apps are reporting on this and we’ve not said a word.”

      I’ve definitely noticed the change because I’ve been combining maps from news stations since around 2008/2009 and back then I used to only see maps maybe two days before but usually the day before. Now sometimes it’s four or five days out when they release snow maps.

      1. Bingo. I am not sure you were reading far enough back when I mentioned,,,..a million times for anyone keeping count….Pete b told me that the edict from 7 was they had to be first to get numbers out. It seemed last year as if 4 was trying to step into the spot

          1. It pretty much has everything to do with it. But the people still shoulder the majority of the blame. They focus on top number. They don’t hear the words potential or possible, etc

  12. In my experience dealing with public for thirty years, I could almost say that now the forecast IS the “weather” folks pay attention to – not what’s going on outside. I’ve heard people talking about “tomorrows snowstorm.” I remember years ago hearing Don Kent before we went to school and that was our weather information for the day. When the television stations are talking snow people now “check the weather ” on their phone every five minutes to see what’s changed – a totally different world

    1. It is for sure. But it is the same with the news. I am a big fan of social media, but instant gratification needs to somehow stop.

      And I really think …or hope…the majority are not represented by those who like to throw rocks.

  13. Thanks, TK.

    This was never going to be an impactful storm, even on the Cape and Islands. I’m very surprised they put up winter storm watches yesterday for that area. Tomorrow it will be pretty on the Cape to watch some flakes fly and sort of accumulate on grassy areas, but it will not be plowable as practically nothing will stick to roadways.

    We’ll have one more arctic blast this week followed by a gradual warm-up and then a couple of cool-downs the rest of the month. But, I don’t see much accumulating snow for the remainder of the season, notwithstanding a few models that suggest possible events towards the end of March. I think these events will be mostly rain in Eastern Massachusetts as I just don’t see enough cold air in place at that time. Of course, everything is subject to change.

    Regardless of what happens snow-wise, given the significant cold air blast that will blow into town mid-week March will likely go down as a memorable one in terms of cold temps.

    1. This had more potential than non-meteorologists realize.

      And it’s not out of the question yet we see a surprise somewhere.

      1. The placement of a potential norlun could be the dark horse. And you’re absolutely right. A surprise indeed could come from this. Yet, I think the WSW posted by the NWS was a tad premature to hoist up yesterday.

    2. Agreed. I never understood why they even put up WSW. There simply was not enough consistent support to suggest putting up a WSW that early. If you read the NWS discussion, they even tossed around the idea of a blizzard warning (not due to falling snow, rather due to high winds causing blowing/drifting snow). I’m not sure that I can say Don Kent would have reacted similarly. Just my opinion.

  14. I would not blame technology as it can be very good. We can track hurricanes so much better. NWS used a 3 day cone that was 2 to 3 times as wide as it currently. What I would say is the ignorance of people are increasing and they do not believe the experts….. Which has been becoming the theme especially as of late.

    1. The real issue right now is the majority of people take a day-3 forecast as the final word. They don’t get it.

      1. But the blame for that lies squarely on their shoulder

        Matt, I do not blame tech and agree with you that it has opened the door for many advancements. I blame the way people use it….again, we are back to people.

      2. I saw a study done on the overall accuracy of 7 day forecasts. near 90% day one, 88% day two and then day three drops down to like 50 or 60 percent overall accuracy. I need to pull out the article. These accuracies are even worse for around here in new england winters 😉

  15. I think it is important to remember that even if mets were given free rein, it is important to get out a three day forecast with preliminary numbers. The public needs to know that something may be brewing. But that of course doesn’t apply here. Altnough, those here can easily see how difficult it is

    1. Some METS like Harvey maps without numbers as in potential for “little to no snow,”, “some snow,” “moderate snow,” and “heavy snow.” More than 48 hours out, these maps are more appropriate in my opinion. Sure, here we all are guilty of throwing out numbers prematurely, but as you have stated, here it is different.

    2. Very very difficult.

      I don’t know if it is just I, but I can’t recall a time when there “appeared” to
      be so much model divergence. These forecasts have been near IMPOSSIBLE
      to make. I feel for all the Mets having to deal with this.

      1. I can’t recall a time recently where the models all agreed. There’s always model divergence.

  16. Taking a brief break from working around the house.

    My comment for tomorrow still stands: Arghhhhhh

    Not sure if Tk’s surprise was meant for tomorrow.
    I honestly interpreted it as before we’re done with Winter weather.

    Euro look sick for tomorrow. HRRR and RAP don’t look good either.

    I look ahead to 3/26 and 4/1 to seek out that surprise or not such a surprise.

    Hey as long as everyone is talking about numbers, I watched Mike Wankum last
    evening at 11PM he still had 1-3 in the boston area and 3-6 SE.
    I had to chuckle because by then it was pretty clear it was going to be a miss.
    I think some alluded to this previously, but once the numbers go up, these guys
    are hesitant to reel them back in. 😀

    1. It takes them a day or two and multiple shifts to reel the numbers down to reality. Rather than making a forecast as to what they think will happen, they peel back the numbers little by little as if hoping the general public won’t notice. Not sure what their motivation behind it is. Again, management? Negligence? Who knows?

  17. On a completely unrelated weather topic but one I have been supporting in any way I can….not sure how many have heard six-year old Devin’s story. Word is spreading fast and people are responding from Around the country and in a few cases outside the country by holding signs that spell out whynotdevin or lighting their homes green for his favorite super hero.

    Mark and JJ I just saw a post from the Red Robin in Manchester CT with employees holding papers that spell Whynotdevin. That made me think to post here. Below is link to story.

    https://www.google.com/amp/boston.cbslocal.com/2017/02/22/devin-suau-why-not-devin-cancer-brain-stem-tumor-whynotdevin/amp/

  18. Alisonrod, I mistakenly wrote Winter Storm Watch for CC when I should have written Winter Storm Warning. The latter of course is even more puzzling given the uncertainty regarding this system as of yesterday when the warnings were issued. A watch would have been warranted, but not a warning.

    TK, you’re right about the possibility of surprises with this system as well as any system for that matter. I should not be as definite as I was, particularly since I am not an expert.

    I’m a winter nut so I find not only snow events interesting but also polar air masses. I think I’m beginning to understand the models a bit better. From what I’m seeing we could be in for some record-breaking cold Wednesday and Thursday. Not everywhere in SNE, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see single digits at night in certain locales, particularly those with snow cover. And that’s a wow in my book, especially given that this will be the 4th arctic intrusion this month. Remarkable tenacity shown by the old man.

  20. I’m hanging out at Triton Regional this afternoon. My son just performed with the Woburn High winter percussion in a competition. I’m in the mini town of Byfield MA.

  21. Going to home to see my new puppy, Piper! She’s a pure bred yellow lab. Just the cutest!

  22. TV guys regarding day 8 (yes 2 of them mentioned the day BEYOND the 7-day forecast).

    One suggested snow on March 26. The other suggested possible 60+ for temps. If that does not make multiple points I always bring up regarding mainstream media, then I simply give up. 😉

  24. * Don’t completely rule out surprises yet…

    * NWS peel-back of #’s is a policy within. Same applies to hurricane track forecast changes.

    1. Do you agree with AJ Tk on he thinks Boston will most likely see nothing and what does fall won’t even stick tomorrow .

      1. For the most part, I do. The only way the city gets stuff to stick is … 1) The stuff in CT somehow manages to hold together into Boston tonight. 2) The short range guidance is not picking up a trough that noses into eastern MA tomorrow night.

        Both are possible.

  25. The issue of watches and warnings can be very confusing. Usually it’s a bigger issue for severe weather, but the same sorts of rules apply for winter weather. The WSW for the Cape/Islands was completely within reason given what looked yesterday to be a decent possibility for that region of 6″ of snow. I would recommend a look at this table, which I believe is the best concise summary out there of the differences in various products. When it comes to a watch, the key words are “possible” and “uncertain”. There’s a reason watches comes before warnings.

    http://www.shelbyohwx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/OWAW-Chart.jpg

    1. First hint of it above is “a warm-up follows” on my 6-10. We have a shot but I’m not convinced yet.

  30. We had a nice snow shower around dawn here in my part of Woburn that coated everything except the main road (paved side road and my driveway were coated). Verified the first part of the forecast. 😉

    Second part was vaguely written but I’ll pull it in on the update shortly after 8AM.

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