Sunday Forecast

182 Comments

8:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 19-23)
Redeveloping low pressure south of New England today will move northeastward into the waters east of New England through early Monday with the aforementioned snow threat confined mainly to Cape Cod (starting as rain in some areas) but a few snow showers coming off the ocean into eastern MA through this evening with the aid of maritime moisture and an weak trough of low pressure. This may linger into early Monday but as we enter the first hours of spring (Vernal Equinox in the morning) we’ll see sunshine take over as it turns a little milder. Slightly warmer still on Tuesday for the first full day of spring but a quick return to the feel of winter follows this on Wednesday as an arctic cold front dives southward through the region. This chill-down will bite hardest with wind Wednesday but last into Thursday as well, albeit with much less wind by then.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain and snow Cape Cod, becoming mainly snow, with accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible there. Scattered to isolated snow showers NH Seacoast and eastern MA to RI with a few dustings possible. Highs 30-37. Lows 22-30. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts inland, 20-30 MPH with higher gusts coast, including some 40-50 MPH gusts Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with bit of light rain/snow possible eastern MA / NH Seacoast early, otherwise clearing. Highs 37-44. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 15-22. Highs 28-35.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 5-15. Highs 32-40.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 24-28)
A transition from chilly to warmer weather tries to take place March 24-25 but may be met with some difficulty – will watch how this evolves. Transition back to cold may include rain/ice/snow March 26. Fair and chilly to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)
Another episode of unsettled weather is most likely during the early to middle of this period. Temperatures variable in typical early spring fashion.

182 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  4. Wind has been out of NE or ENE past two days. It is not a direction we have seen often here. It is gusting up to mid teens so Old Glory is flying proudly. 31 with a 25 DP

  5. Good morning. Just cloudy here. Looks like I missed some snow earlier. Everything
    has a nice sugar coating of snow. Looking at car tops looks like up to 1/4 inch.

    Looks like snow out there, but not doing anything at the moment and other than
    the Cape and Islands, radar looks clean.

    We shall see if anything happens in the surprise category.

    Looking ahead, all seems murky to me. Everything keeps changing run-to-run so it
    is difficult to figure out how it will all shake out. I like how TL termed it:
    may include rain/ice/snow

    1. Not a subscriber to globe so cannot read. But I did read elsewhere. I ama huge fan of bakers. The article I read, unlike Christie, he was careful to point out his appreciation for mets. But what would he have done differently? As someone wisely pointed out here…. Next time, people may not listen and it could have devaatating results

      No matter how nicely he says it, he still feeds the weather haters. It is weather, folks. I’ll say it again…if it is the worst thing you have to worry about, you live a charmed life.

  8. I realize that many people read this blog that do not comment and most of it not all of them realize the difficulty of forecasting. I realize there are policies that impact some (like a TV newscast and the ratings game), but there seems to be some belief that the last major system was a “bust”. Let me set the record straight. It was not. Was the forecast wrong for some places? Yes. But if folks were actually paying attention, it may have been very late in the game but the totals were adjusted for. This is why we constantly caution people to stay updated. Most of the time we are reasonably confident and accurate inside 24 hours on snow amounts, etc. This was a case where changes took place inside 24 hours. It happens. It’s weather. It’s meteorology. It will NEVER be 100% “forecastable” so if you feel that way, rethink it please. 🙂

    Forecasters such as myself will fully admit when we blow a forecast. Do you think we like it? Of course we don’t, but it’s part of doing this science. If you can’t handle failure, it’s time to get out, because we fail at times, and some of them are big ones. This past one, was not one of those. Nor is this one. Yes, some forecasters put numbers to it too early, in my opinion, and had to trim them back, but to me there was enough uncertainty that I was not going to apply numbers until my usual window, if not closer, and I still myself had to trim back slightly on my initially communicated potential. Again, this is weather, or more appropriately, the science of meteorology.

    Let’s compare meteorology (the media aspect) to another type of science. When a medical discovery is made, it is researched and tested, over and over. Maybe a medication may be developed to treat a condition, or a procedure is discovered to alleviate some health problem. They are tested, over years in some cases, and then approved (or not as the case may be). The science of meteorology when applied to media/forecasting, is almost immediate. We make a forecast, and communicate it. We don’t have a chance to “test it out” to make sure it verifies first. Please keep that in mind when seeking weather information. It will hopefully prevent unreasonable expectations.

    2. I’m glad that some, like yourself, can exercise caution and patience with forecasts. This last tricky storm was a very good example of that. The TV mets unfortunately have to engage in a bit of theater for the sake of the audience it seems. I can only imagine the amount of pressure for viewers. But even with that pressure I hope this past storm and the other tricky ones teach everyone, including viewers, to always take totals with a grain of salt (and for forecasters to caution when they know it’s tricky) and pay close attention to updates.

      That said, I heard from the farmers almanac there would be a storm on April 2nd. Please give me exact amounts because I will hold you to within an inch of error and be angry otherwise. lmao

      1. Want to know what’s funny? The almanac forecasts are worth less than a pile of horse shit on a farm where one hangs in the outhouse. However, I’m eyeing a storm threat or 2 in the first 5 days of April… Shhh don’t tell anyone.

      2. Just had a thought rereading my joke at the end: the farmer’s almanac is a bunch of hogwash and scientifically proven to be “right” sometimes less than 50% of the time. And yet people still sing its praises and but the book in droves every year. But a forecaster makes a slightly off call a few days out and everyone loses their minds.

    3. How much of this weekend’s weather event forecasting was done as a reaction to Tuesday’s storm? I say this because watching the news Tuesday the weather and news folk were already starting to throw the “well we just got over this storm and there’s another one coming” story out there. Would they have pushed this weekend’s event had there not been the big storm earlier this week?

    1. Reasonable for the most part. Ch 4’s is the one I agree with most, and they should indeed use the word “potential” still, even on the day of an event in this case.

      1. Coating to inch in Boston? Well that has already verified IF
        one counts what fell overnight, Else, those snow showers
        best materialize. 😀

  11. For a day where it’s not (currently) raining or snowing and it’s 37 degrees, it’s pretty miserable out there. A rather strong NE wind doesn’t make going outside very pleasant.

      1. It would be a great day to be there enjoying the quiet season down there and having a burger and beer while watching the NCAA tourney.

    3. Sure doesn’t appear to be accumulating in any way shape or form.
      Combination of Surface Temperature, Sun Angle and Intensity or lack thereof.

  13. Am out to brunch with me, myself and I. So as not to be rude to those folks I have two quick observations after a thank you for your comment.

    First, failure is not a word I would ever use when a person tries his or her best. And that is what you do without exception. Second, we know amounts were starting to show a decrease the night before. I don’t think anyone believes tv weather folks can wait till then. Third, Yes I said two points, horse shit had some great value …..insulating and fertilizing for two 😉

    1. I left it somewhat vague above, but horse shit is of much greater value than an almanac forecast… 😉

      1. I did note that. I had coercion from myself and I to make the comment. They certainly are snarky today 🙂

  14. Some quizzes.

    1) A thick layered dark gray cloud that usually produces continuous rain or snow over a large area is called …

    A. Mammatus
    B. Nimbostratus
    C. Cumulonimbus
    D. Cirrus

    2. Spring begins the moment the sun crosses the _____.

    A. Tropic of Capricorn
    B. Equator
    C. Tropic of Cancer
    D. Prima Meridian

    3. Which one occurs only on the vernal equinox?

    A. 1st day of spring
    B. Exactly equal day and night
    C. 1st day of fall
    D. non of the above

    Answers later today.

  15. IIRC The Old Farmer’s Almanac had “sunny & mild” during the week of the Blizzard of ’78. 😉

  16. It may be 60+ on Saturday, but it is likely to be short lived as a brutal arctic
    front is pushing down. Does it get down here? Not sure, but I have a feeling it will.
    Storminess right behind it. This is one of Tk’s worry periods. We shall see.

  17. Ok…back from brunch and left myself and I there to pay the bill.

    On FB many mornings I am presented with a reminder of what I posted a year ago that date. This morning’s made me laugh. A year ago today I shared TKs opening comments on WHW. I shared them because I felt they were incredibly important in educating the public…the average person….with regard to weather

    They were very similar to TKs post earlier. But he had not made that esrlier post today when I reread what he’d said a year ago; so this morning, I just laughed and then shook my head. TK made this comment today…… a year ago today…..and basically over and over from the birth of this blog.

    If it were I, my head would be sore from batting it against the wall….or monitor …..or device.

    The only failure IMHO with regard to storms, is the individual person’s ability to comprehend very basic facts. I am not in any way referring to anyone on this blog. And I do not mean to sound harsh, but how many times and in how many ways can one person say the same thing?

    On that note, I cannot thank you enough TK for trying as hard as you do day in and day out to share and to educate.

  20. TK, I appreciate your forecasts and incredibly informative explanations.

    I’d like to add that in clinical science when, for example, developing a drug, the circumstances under which the initially experimental compound is tested are controlled: Everything from subject recruitment to clinical setting to medical monitoring. Moreover, the development process is formulaic: the investigational drug is compared with a placebo in a randomized controlled clinical trial. If the investigational drug does better than placebo on efficacy and safety grounds it gets approved. So, it should come as no surprise that drug approvals face multiple challenges once they’re confronted with the real world in which there is no subject recruitment, clinical settings differ, monitoring is sometimes non-existent, and people misread or don’t read labels at all. Some drugs fail in the marketplace as a result. Others do much better than expected.

    Meteorology, from what I gather, is invariably confronted with real-world conditions. Although models simulate reality, there is no way in which models can be tested under experimental circumstances as they would in clinical science. Models are tested – and adjusted accordingly – continuously by real-world conditions over which the meteorologist has no control.

  21. I am playing the smallest violin about government and public complaining about the Mets. WELCOME TO THE CLUB!! The fields in which people that have no background critiquing the scientists involved in the field. Sound familiar??

          1. To use your term, it looks “Low Waisted” to me.
            The globe is not symmetrical. The equator does not cut the golb in the center.

            1. My first comment was goingto be that it was wearing its pants low….like a teenager. But I looked at a map to be sure and it seems to sit higher than it should

  24. I know we are in for good weather on Saturday but I swear mother nature hates meteorologists who are predicting warm weather in advance and will give us a blizzard. 😉

  25. Sorry I’ve been MIA for the past few days, but as TK can attest to, it’s been all hockey all weekend for me (UMass-Lowell – Hockey East Champions for the 3rd time in 5 years!)

    Looks like a quiet week around here, but next weekend could be interesting, especially if you buy what the ECMWF is selling (I’m not, for now).

    1. I know no one thinks much of the CMC, but for what it is worth, it is pretty much selling what the Euro is selling. GFS is selling something, but to a much lesser degree.

      We shall see.

      1. Lowell vs Cornell, 1st round of the NCAA Tournament in Manchester, NH Saturday at Noon. So, you know where you’ll find me on Saturday.

        1. I know all about what it can do . We are on the back burner light at the end of the tunnel.

  26. Thw Euro, GFS and CMC all hinting at somehting interesting around the 26th-28th or so.

    Could be very significant depending on how things shake out. A Spring snowstorm is on the table, although no one can say with certainty right now. For now something to watch.

      1. what is so funny, he is just stating what he is seeing, Its also a weather blog, so stop belittling someone’s wishes for snow.

        1. I have actually, Patient transporter 🙂 and I usually work for the OR and ER. We actually had fun. Some of your coworkers become some good friends 🙂

          1. if you say this is crappy etc it will never be good, my coworkers and I make the best of things. The ER and OR are always up and down in volume We just wing it 😀

  27. do have snow showers breaking off the system and moving up the coast?
    Looks like they are up to Plymouth.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.49782608695652175&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=234.27947598253286&centery=247.03056768558952&transx=-165.72052401746714&transy=7.030567685589517&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24832536&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  31. I’m back at Woods Hill in Woburn. I had the spits of snow I mentioned in Hingham, and a few tiny flakes in Pembroke while I was there, then observed isolated snow showers on my drive back north with blue sky behind Boston, which I emerged into just as I came over the Zakim. Pretty neat. Mainly sunny here in Woburn now. Didn’t forecast that much clearing up here. But I don’t think anyone’s going to really complain about that.

  33. Dr. Stupid…just saw that you live in Hingham…me too 🙂 I’m over by Fort Hill and Newbridge.

    1. Ah yes. The place to be if you want to go sledding on the golf course lol. Or for people to speed when they’re trying to get to the dump before it closes haha.

      I’m in the crow’s landing area near Foster Elementry. Small state, eh? 🙂

      1. It is…we looked at house back in 2006 on Planters Field Lane…opted for the one on Newbridge. My wife’s folks are from Hingham (by Wompatuck) and her mom still lives here.

  34. I’m surprised no one has mentioned the bonus sunshine that recently developed. Thanks TK! Take the credit, please!! 🙂

    1. I’m actually disappointed in myself for not calling it. Wind turned more north northeast and drew a lot of dry air down from the north on the back side of the new low offshore.

      We were literally 25-50 miles from a light to moderate snowstorm over all of eastern MA.

      2. I’m glad we missed it . It’s been a good winter again if you don’t like a Ton of snow like myself . I’m just hoping summer is not a wash out.

        1. I’m hoping for a lovely, cool summer…except an occasional very hot day ended by a huge thunderstorm. In short, I’m looking for a winter version of summer. 🙂

          2. I thought Tk had said warm and rainy but I’m not certain. It would hurt my weekend business . Never had to cancel last season due to rain

            1. I am hoping for a decent amount of rain. We need it. I figure that takes priority over my vacation being sunny.

  35. Anybody can walk into a store, guess the right numbers, and win the lottery. It’s called luck.

    If you state something that you think is going to happen or not happen regarding the weather, but did not apply any meteorology, you did not actually make a forecast, so if you are “right”, it’s because of luck, not skill, and certainly cannot be attributed to the scientific method whatsoever. 🙂

    2. Anybody can walk into a store, guess the right numbers, and win the lottery.

      Um, sign me up for this? Where can I subscribe. Plz.

  36. A very close friend of mine who I love dearly recently promoted my blog and Facebook page to her customers and friends so I am going to return the favor by promoting her Facebook page here for any of you that are on there.

    She lives on the South Shore and is a dog groomer, and a damn good one, and maybe one of the biggest Bruins fans anywhere. 🙂 I love her like she’s my little sister!

    https://www.facebook.com/MelsDogServices/

  37. Quiz Answers

    1) A thick layered dark gray cloud that usually produces continuous rain or snow over a large area is called …

    A. Mammatus
    B. Nimbostratus
    C. Cumulonimbus
    D. Cirrus

    The correct answer is B.

    2. Spring begins the moment the sun crosses the _____.

    A. Tropic of Capricorn
    B. Equator
    C. Tropic of Cancer
    D. Prima Meridian

    The correct answer is B.

    3. Which one occurs only on the vernal equinox?

    A. 1st day of spring
    B. Exactly equal day and night
    C. 1st day of fall
    D. None of the above

    The correct answer is A.

    1. Thank you, Longshot

      And……Hmmmmmmmm my granddaughter…who was with me and is becoming quite interested in science and weather….says equinox means equal. I’ll need an explanation if someone doesn’t mind to give her. I also thought the equinox meant basically equal day and night. If I am recalling correctly…doesn’t equinox translate to equal night ?

      1. Never mind. I just read the question again as it dawned on me I must have read it incorrectly. And i did. Three lies in one week….my nose grows

  39. Interesting, the radar shows echoes slowly backing in.
    Just that the low is moving more Northward now? OR
    is this a sign that the TK trough is developing in some way? Hmmm

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.49782608695652175&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=234.27947598253286&centery=247.03056768558952&transx=-165.72052401746714&transy=7.030567685589517&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24832740&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  40. Low and mid deck of clouds have rolled back in from he ocean here. Don’t know IF
    any snow will get in here. Interesting either way.

    1. I could actually see a low deck of clouds to the east as the sun set. Would that be the dame deck

  41. Looking long-range it does appear some colder air will work its way into New England by next week. I don’t think it’ll be cold enough to allow for snow makers at the coast, but it’s definitely something to watch for. Also, it appears that the pattern remains on the cool to cold side through the end of the month and into April. It would be interesting if we got accumulating snow in April this year because that would be two consecutive years of accumulating snow in April. I don’t think that has happened in a long time. I think 1996 and 1997 was the last time we had accumulating snows in April two years in a row. Of course, we remember that in both 1996 and 1997 quite a lot of snow fell in April.

    1. I figure you can count on it. I’m having a partio put in the back yard and they were going to begin early april

    3. Depends on your definition of “accumulating snow”. If you mean 0.1″ or more (which is the meteorological definition), than 1996 and 1997 was certainly not the last time. Using data for Lowell, we’ve had at least 0.1″ of snow in April each of the last 3 years. we also had in back-to-back in 2002-2003.

      1. Meteorologically speaking….perhaps……logically speaking……I would not think anyone in discussion would consider one tenth accumulating.

        1. By meteorological definition, 0.1 inch is accumulating snow. That is the first measurement beyond a trace.

          1. I know – that’s why I worded it as I did. 🙂

            Now if someone can define plowable snow, my day will be just about perfect. For it to be absolutely perfect, you’d just sit back and relax and feel better !!

              1. You are not sitting back and relaxing. I can stop trying to create the picture wall I’ve had in the works for about six months and head to Woburn if I have to. Only thing…..when I get to the town line and begin yelling TK, will you please just respond hot or cold. That way I’ll know which direction to go. And no reversing them. I know your sense of humor 🙂

    1. thank you sak. since your wrote this, it now looks like both the euro and gfs have quite a bit of snow.

        1. yup, you’re making my point.

          Euro fairly aggressive as well, but axis of Snow farther North.

          We’ll have to watch how far South that Arctic Front pushes. Too far South => Nothing, Just right => Snow
          to varying degree depending. I suppose if it doesn’t push far enough, then it could rain or we stay in milder air.

          Long way off, so who knows. Right now just something to watch.

      2. Actually, I had seen the Euro when I wrote it, hence the comment about one model having a lot of snow. The Euro was also the model that did not push the warm front through here Friday/Saturday, and kept us in the 40s.

  44. Happy Spring! Although it sure doesn’t feel like it… I would say March has been the most “wintry” month of the season so far. The Arctic hammer is set to drop on us again by Wednesday- the only thing to help us is the time of year. Still, near record cold possible around then. We’re looking at the unusual circumstance of March being a colder month than February, not in terms of anomalies but actual temperatures. Keeping an eye on next weekend, because a high to the north/low to the south always creates headaches in a forecast, but right now I lean away from much snow in SNE. Maybe to our north.

  45. In New England, its today the local groundhog should do its thing and tell us if there’s 6 more weeks of winter.

  46. The headline reads like this:

    Meteorologist Goes Into Atrial Fibrillation As Sun Crosses Equator

    I literally went into atrial fib at 6:29AM this morning. How freaking ironic is that?

    I am currently sitting in my chair waiting the 3 hours to see if my heart regulates itself. If not, the cardiologist will be called. In the mean time, I’ll update the blog in a few. 🙂

    1. Brian….you don’t want to make me go over there. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE. Just relax and do not worry about the blog. We will be fine. You have my word of honor I will behave. Prayers and hugs.

    3. Please take care of yourself. Good grief. Please don’t worry about the blog.
      You come first!

    4. Ugh, that stinks. I hope everything corrects itself soon. Get some rest and take it easy! I’d offer to write the blog for you but it would be based off the 6z GFS and not sure how well that would go over….

  48. Sitting up is actually more comfortable than lying down, honestly. And my forecast is going to be rather similar to SAK’s anyway. I’m not committing to much regarding Sunday this far out.

    1. Please take your time.
      Re: Sunday

      After what we saw this past week with both Tuesday’s storm and yesterday, I wouldn’t commit to a damn thing other than to say that there would be increasing daylight starting about 6:30AM and increasing darkness after 7PM and that on Sunday there would be weather.

      Seriously, If your in tune with SAK, then for whatever reason, you feel
      that things will set up too far South on Sunday? Ie arctic front pushes too
      far South?

      0Z Euro keeps it more to the North and axis of Snow from Boston area North.
      6Z GFS keeps it more to the South with axis of Snow Boston area South.
      CMC says screw the snow, I don’t know what you boys are Talking about.
      FIM keeps it even farther North than the Euro.

      Is it time to play Meteorological Darts?

      1. Sorry – I really am just kidding. I found my snark a couple of days ago and after a couple of truly heartbreaking events this past weekend, please don’t take hold it against me!

        2. This is more I found:

          “The items were found in the possession of a credentialed member of the international media. Due to an ongoing investigation, we would refer any additional questions to the FBI.”

          The FBI had to be involved because the jersey was found on foreign soil. The Houston Police Department said on Twitter that the jersey was found in Mexico.

          The media was one of several groups to have access to the locker room following the Patriots’ comeback win over the Falcons in the brief time frame when it had been determined the jersey was swiped.

  50. TK, please take care of yourself. Your health is the priority, not the blog. We love your forecasts, but we can wait until you’re feeling better.

  51. re: Sunday

    GFS 500mb 12Z Sunday

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017032006/gfs_z500a_us_26.png

    Surface

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017032006/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

    500mb 6Z early Monday AM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017032006/gfs_z500a_us_29.png

    Surface

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017032006/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

    How far South is that wave of low pressure suppressed?

    Looking at the charts, it could stay a bit farther North or get suppressed a bit farther South, just enough to keep snow out of here. IMPOSSIBLE to know right now.

    My Gut and that is ALL it is right now, says it does NOT go too far South. It may set up such that the axis of Snow is to our North. To me, that would be the more likely
    scenario, however, that axis could be right across MA, including the Boston area.
    Needs to be watched.

    Dying to see what the 12Z Model suit has to say and I also WISH we were in NAM range, but sadly, we are not. 😀

      1. OK, here ya go:

        0-20 inches. Can’t go wrong with that one. 😀

        0 is clearly in play. 20 may be a stretch, but there are many numbers in between that are in play.

        Let’s see which one it is.

        Care to play meteorological roulette? Or would you prefer a game of darts? Place circles with numbers on them representing the snow accumulation. Put 20 or so up on a wall
        numbered 1-20. We’ll blind fold you and hand you an approved tournament dart, spin you around and make sure you are
        facing the wall and you then fire away. Whatever circle you
        hit is the forecast snow amount.

        Btw, I think this is the method the NWS uses. 😀 😀 😀

        Fair enough? That’s about where we are at right now. 😀

          1. That would be awesome. Seriously, IF I had to place a bet, I would bet on 0 over any other number. That’s not to say another number isn’t possible, because it certainly is. Just going with the odds.

            12Z suite will be out soon enough and we can compare and contrast and make speculations based on the new data.

            It will probably have a CUTTER. 😀

  53. I think the networks should start posting snow accumulation maps tonight for Sunday and even for our first snow coming in November. I have plans to make that cannot be held up by weather.

    1. 😀

      Seems it getting to that, doesn’t it.

      Let’s go back to the days of Don Kent.

      I can remember one time where there was something brewing about 5 days out or so. He said on air the the system would move from the Pacific NW and drop down to the gulf and pick up moisture and then head up to New England
      for “possible” snow on such and such a day. That’s all that needs to be said
      that far out.

      I like TK’s style of not putting numbers out until such time that there is more
      of a “certainty” if such a thing exists. He also on occasion shares a range
      farther in advance as long as no one holds him to it, but that is not on air to
      the public, it’s just to blog members who understand.

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