Monday Forecast

87 Comments

11:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 20-24)
The Vernal Equinox occurred at 6:29AM EDT this morning at the precise moment my heart went into atrial fibrillation from a condition I’ve had for years, so because of that, this update is late and abbreviated. I’m on my way to the doctor for an EKG in a few moments. All will be well soon! That’s a high confidence forecast! As for the weather, dry and milder weather takes over today and Tuesday but comes to an end quickly as an arctic cold front plunges out of Canada Tuesday night and early Wednesday and sends us into the March freeze zone again. Winds diminish by Thursday as high pressure builds in though it will still be a chilly day, then it moderates somewhat but with clouds arriving on Friday ahead of a warm front.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 15-22. Highs 28-35.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 5-15. Highs 32-40.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Highs 40-47.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 25-29)
Saturday March 25 is a low confidence forecast and is dependent on whether or not a warm front makes it partially or fully through the region as expect at least some cloudiness and coolest temps north (40s), and milder south (50s), but add 10 degrees to this if the front makes it through. Front comes back as high pressure builds across eastern Canada by Sunday and it turns colder again. Wildcard is if we get a brief shot of rain/mix as the temps drop, or if precipitation lingers later Sunday into Monday and includes more snow and ice. Will fine-tune this as we get closer. Fair and chilly weather to end the period seems a good bet.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
Another episode of unsettled weather is most likely during the early to middle of this period. Temperatures variable, mainly below normal.

87 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thank you for the update you should not have provided today.

    Best wishes for a positive outcome with the doc today.

  3. Geez TK, I know you love weather but you don’t have to be so dramatic about it!

    I’m just teasing. Sending good thoughts your way that all will be well at the doctors.

    2. High Desert? lot’s of Marijuana there? Or just high altitude?
      Which specific City/town? Bend, Burns, Lakeview or Primeville
      Or Other? 😀

  6. GFS no longer brings the warm front through for Saturday, and has a general 2-4″ north of the Pike Sunday night/Monday, with a little more in the Worcester Hills/Monadnocks.

  8. Thanks for the post TK! I’m hoping your forecast of better health is accurate, you never steer us wrong to begin with.

  11. ECMWF still keeps Saturday cool and has shifted it’s axis of heavy snow to a roughly 60 mile wide WNW-ESE band centered roughly on the Mass Pike.

  13. Turkeys on the Green Line tracks on Beacon St. Brookline. The operator had to blast the horn. Too funny. 😀

  14. We are off to South Carolina tonight around midnight. Forecast for Columbia is 85 tomorrow with thunderstorms and then down to the 60’s on Thursday and Friday. According to my 9-year old, still warm enough for shorts. 🙂

  16. As SAK said, will have to wait a while on the upcoming…
    Typical fence-scenario for now. Where it ends up is anyone’s guess.

  17. I have been resting. I took a strong beta blocker at 2. The plan was to start with 1 and go to 1/2 if it wasn’t fixed yet, and another 1/2 later if it was still off. As of 5PM I just took 1/2 more. It is much less intense but not converted to NSR yet. Getting there. 🙂

    1. Glad to hear there’s some improvement. But, please take it easy. Be well. Your health is of paramount importance.

    2. Glad you are resting and if posting here keeps you sitting, post away. I always enjoy seeing your posts.

      1. Stay well TK! I have a feeling your forecasting abilities will be tested once again. The TV mets already have wintry stuff late weekend/early next week on their 7-days. 😉

        1. I saw Harvey’s. I don’t watch 5 often although I don’t watch any often since I have the best here. So have they all gone to 7 day. I feel for these guys.

  18. People seem to like to jump and say the warm front will make its way on up through the area and forecast it to far north. For a good laugh go look and see what the gfs is showing the first week of April

  19. Comey was hysterical under questioning. Not sure what he was asked but he gave an example of what seemed to be partisanship which is basically accurate for all of us. For example, He said he hates the Pats so no matter who the Pats are playing, he roots for that team. He then clarified by saying the reason he hates them is that they represent sustained excellence and as a giants fan that drives him nuts.

    1. He knows a lot right now that he is not giving to the CIA ,public and I do not even think many of the senators and House of representatives no but maybe 1/10 of what he knows.

  20. And on a more depressing note…..I was wondering how Harvey aged. I recall being at several parties with him in the mid 1980s. And then didn’t he say Bobby Orr is 69. I’m trying to figure how they got older and I remained the same 🙂 🙂 😉

  21. We had a visitor in our front yard today. Care to guess what it was?

    Here are the tracks:

    http://imgur.com/a/Dfvn1

    Yup, you guessed it a wild turkey. I googled it and the tracks are a perfect match.
    I surmised that when I saw them as those tracks are a good 3 inches in diameter.

    1. Cool. Macs cousin said they have a bunch of them in Brookline.

      We have a bunch but here you’d expect it. It always surprises me when they are in the city

          1. The turkey population seems to be quite healthy. In the Fall I’ve watched them eat huge acorns whole.

            1. LOL. As if they have opposable thumbs whereby allowing them to delicately quarter up an acorn.

  22. TK, good evening.

    I hope you are relaxing and watching the 666th game between the B’s and the Leafs.

    1. I watched it. If that didn’t put me back in a-fib, I don’t think anything will. 😛

  23. A little levity for the day. Actual conversation on Facebook this afternoon:

    Me: You’re not dead, right?
    TK: Not dead. Was just letting the meds kick in.
    Me: Good. Keep it that way.
    TK: Will do!

  24. Back from a great Virgin Islands vacation.

    I see I blew the second piece of energy day 4 forecast for last Wednesday. So while my thoughts were wrong, my general 8-12″ spots to 15″ and less at coast actually worked out good but with some bad component forecasts to arrive at that amount.

    I did see that my warning from earlier that the Kuchera method for March snows is a bad forecast waiting to happen.

    My 3/22 watch period is off the books. Think we could be active 3/25-4/5 but this weeeknd the front could be far enough south to keep Saturday dry / cool. Snow chances for sure but going to need to intensity for any real impact. Not sure I see that in the earlier waves.

    Later March early April has some moments of potential for adverse weather. Change to drier with some shots of much above still on the table for April and May.

    1. Yeah my thoughts were similar on piece #2. It didn’t quite pan out that way. The upper was there but it didn’t seem to have anything to work with.

  25. what a miserable place the southern tip of Greenland must be. I watch atlantic storm after storm after storm all go there to die a slow death and spin and spin.

  26. above should read one scenario is cold front pushes far enough south to keep most of Saturday / Sunday / Monday dry & cool. Just as likely at this point as the more “interesting” scenarios being advertised.

    TK-Feel better, get in rhythm. Be good to yourself.

  27. SAK… I didn’t realize how funny that exchange sounded until I re-read it. 😉

    Went out of rhythm at 6:29AM. Went back to normal at 6:28PM. 11 hours, 59 minutes, and this episode is over. 🙂

    1. I love that SAK shared it. For me it did exactly as he intended.

      Mac had a way of using quirky humor to ease a worrisome situation. Just as SAK did. That part made me smile even wider

    2. And you know from FB how happy I was to hear your wonderful news. But please keep taking it easy

    4. Is this a new record? 😉

      If not, let’s try not to break the old record.

      If it is, let’s try not to break the new record.

    1. Dr stupid. As storms approached I used to find and save forecasts from each of the main mets/stations. I know it is anything but easy finding where they hide their maps. Thank you again for rhe time you devoteto this

  29. Cloud cover is wreaking havoc on my forecasts early this morning. Some places are staying cloudy with temperatures in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Meanwhile, some places just a few miles away may see clearing for a few minutes and thus get a little radiational cooling, dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. You’ve got places that are literally 1-2 miles apart but have a 5-10 degree difference in temperature at the moment. This is the type of thing that no model will ever pick up on. Who said this was easy?

    1. Lol. Martha’s Vineyard at 23 degrees under clear skies is the coldest spot I could find in all of New England (aside from Mt Washington)! Lots of cloud cover everywhere with the exception of southeast New England,

  30. Norwood and Blue Hill are 4 miles (and 600 feet of elevation) apart. Current Obs:

    BLUE HILL N/A 35 16 NW14
    NORWOOD CLEAR 27 22 CALM

  31. Although the fat lady hasn’t sung yet, it is looking less likely that there will be any
    significant snow event Sunday and/or Monday in SNE. It appears that a warmer solution is evolving, so far anyway. Depending on model, snow up North, but not much in our area. There is still time, so we shall see. IMHO, not looking so good at the moment.

  33. A delay on the update which won’t have many changes when I post it. Will add to it later. Will send a message here when I post!

  34. Good Morning, All.

    SAK, I am always fascinated by how a few miles can make a difference. We are at 380 feet (sorry, Tom, had that number wrong the other day) and Sutton Center is 715 feet. We are about six miles apart. It is always a minimum of three degrees colder in Sutton Center than it is here. I know the elevation makes the difference (or at least a good portion of it) but it is one of those little things that keeps me in awe of mother nature and mother earth.

    1. To your point. Last evening at 11PM, Harvey said it was 44 at Logan.
      At my house some 5 or 6 Miles from the airport, it was 34.

      With sea breezes it can even be more spectacular. I have seen it like 75 at the airport and 90 at my house. 😀

  35. General point of interest for model watchers this morning: As of the 12z cycle today, the 12km NAM has been upgraded to the parallel version that has been running for months. In addition, the 4km NAM is replaced with the 3km version, and the DGEX has been discontinued.

    1. Thank you WxWatcher.

      So now it’s the 3KM NAM. I knew that the DGEX was history. That was a piece of crap anyway.

      I had no idea the 12KM Name had a parallel version running.

      Any news on the GFS Parallel?

      Thanks again.

    1. Hmmm Meteorologist In Charge?

      Don’t they have a better title than that?

      Something like:

      Chief Meteorologist
      Head Meteorologist
      Director, NWS Taunton Office
      Executive Director, NWS Taunton Office
      Da Boss
      Head Honcho
      Big Cheese
      Top Dog

      Anything would be better than Meteorologist in Charge. Gimmie a break.

      Maybe that might point to this being a FAKE???

        1. Thanks SAK. I am sure he is a great guy. I know I was making fun, but not at him. I just think he is deserving of a far better title.

  39. I have great admiration and respect for M.I.C. Bob Thompson. 🙂

    Very short new post!

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