Monday Forecast

166 Comments

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 27-31)
Low pressure brings rain today, but some of that may freeze on surfaces well west and north of Boston this morning. Another wave of low pressure arrives later Tuesday with more wet weather. Colder and drier air arrives as low pressure departs during midweek, but another low will approach from the southwest later Friday.
TODAY: Overcast with periods of rain, some freezing rain possible well north and west of Boston this morning. Highs 35-43. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 30-37. Wind light NE to N.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Risk of rain late day into night. Highs 35-43. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Windy. Chance of rain/snow showers early. Lows 28-35. Highs 37-45.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Lows 25-33. Highs 40-48.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain/mix/snow evening-night. Lows 25-33. Highs 38-45.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 1-4)
Rain/mix/snow likely April 1 as low pressure passes over or south of the region, then lingering unsettled weather April 2 making the first weekend of April quite unsettled. A break April 3 then more unsettled weather may arrive later April 4 into April 5 based on current timing Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 6-10)
A continuation of an unsettled and cooler than normal pattern is expected.

166 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Good morning. I’m pretty much on vacation this week. It is a perfect day for a movie and reading by the fire.

    1. Sure Matt I’d be happy to respond to your request I guess. I first heard this on 98.5 the sports hub ( multiple times ) I than saw it a couple of times on sports center 5. Lastly google revis and you will find another article suspecting he will be back in New England . I would suspect butler staying or going will impact the patriots decision as this decision will be made by Bill. I hope I satisfactory answered your questions

      2. I agree, if Butler stays then Revis won’t be coming back, Thanks for the source!! I just been seeing speculations thats why I was curious if you have seen something that I havn’t

  5. Thank you TK! Back to the grind today. Would love to be back in the Carolinas in the 70 degree weather!

  6. No article said that Revis himself said he would only
    Play for the Pats. More like people saying what they think makes sense is hat revis comes back to Patriots.

    1. I believe he was quoted last week saying it Hadi according to Lynch & sports hub guys.

    1. AS long as it stays well North of Brisbane, I’m good with it. And it appears that is the case. 😀

  9. Interesting….

    GFS has some Wintry precipitation around for 4/1-4/2 while the Euro
    is basically a rain event, at least for SNE. Being only 4 or so days out, I should
    think we would have a bit more consensus with today’s 12Z runs. We shall see.

    re: Revis
    I heard multiple reports that he might sign here. I also heard one that said no way.
    I guess we wait and see. Right now, I’d rather have Butler back, but that doesn’t
    exactly look likely, although technically still possible.’

    Re: Spring in NE
    I am sorry, but it still SUCKS! I HATE SPRING in NE! HATE IT!

    We were out at a function yesterday and it was brutally disgustingly awful out!
    Ditto today and probably the next 45-60 days!!! This weather blows chunks!
    TK you can have it as I know how much you love it. Take mine and double up on it.
    Oh, did I say how much I loathe New England Springs? In case I didn’t they SUCK!

  11. Thanks TK. I know some people hate an unsettled spring however I think it makes you appreciate the May-September months that much more! Plus I love the crisp early spring air and lack of insects. Perfect time of the year to me.

    2. I agree, I hate them mosquito’s that’s why bats are my friend. I love seeing those bats come June. I have a bad feeling this is going to be another bad Mosquito year

      We use to have about 15 bats in my back yard up in the big pine tree and willow tree but about 4 years ago, all but about 2 or 3 came and it was only for like a month. It was because of the fungus that is attacking the bats. We did not have that good of a population till last year when we had about 8 individuals, I am hoping a continued trend upwards is in store because last year was brutal for mosquio’s. I could not go swimming in my pool when I got home from work most nights.

      2. Matt,

        Have you ever had to extricate a bat from your house?
        If so, you may just have a different opinion. 😀
        Seriously, I agree that they are great in combating the mosquito
        population, but not much fun should they get in the house.

        I am the official bat extricater on my street. 😀 😀 😀
        I used to chase them with a broom and knock them down and scoop them up in bag and release them (Assuming I didn’t
        injure them). Now thanks to a method my wife researched, I go into the room where the bat is and open one or two windows
        as wide as I can and simply wait for the bat to harmlessly fly out.
        Works like a charm every single time.

        We had one in our house fairly recently. It was upstairs and was flying around a 2nd floor hall way. I had to sneak past it down stairs and open the front door widely. It took about 15 minutes, but that bat flew in circles, lower and lower in the 2nd floor, until it finally flew down the stairs and out the front door.

        These little buggers are small, but with wings fully extended and flapping around in the house, they seem like 747’s!!!

        1. Oh ewwwww. How do they get in your house so often? I opened a deck umbrella years ago and a bag had made a home in it. Now I cringe every time I open the umbrella. I can’t imagine Chasing one out of the house. And with my luck, I’d open windows and three more would fly in

          1. They come in completely unnoticed.
            Open the front door at night and the bat comes in with you right over your head without being seen.
            There are tons of bats in our neighborhood. They live high in the maple trees OR in someones attic. (Thankfully not mine or at least I have not seen evidence of that)

  12. Am I missing something? Did you pull a post?

    The only last name I can see in the posts was Lynch who I presume is Mike
    Lunch of Channel 5?

    I feel like I am losing my mind this morning???????

  14. AccuWeather Quiz.

    Which month has had the coldest average temperature since November?
    A. December
    B. January
    C. February
    D. March (to date)

    Answer later today.

  15. It seems a long while since we have had a real rainy day. I know I’m in the minority and that is absolutely fine as differences are what make the world exciting, but I’m loving it

    2. Oh yes.

      Lakes and ponds in SE Mass are extremely low. Saw that in and around Myles Standish Forest yesterday. They are running multiple feet below what seems to be a ‘normal’ level.

        1. Indeed. That is interesting and the reservoirs also look better than a year or so ago.

          I wonder if these kettle ponds are spring fed and while conditions have improved at the top layer, perhaps the spring fed systems are feeling the dryness further below ground ?????????

          1. wow! I never would have thought of that one.
            You may be onto something there.

            I can say that last Summer, the Charles River was as low as I can remember in a long time. That is simply NOT the case right now. Went by the River yesterday in W. Roxbury and Dedham. Totally bank full. Not over, but filled to the brim. 😀

            Perhaps the Rivers and Streams are like the canary in a mine. They are only the first signs, while the ponds and lakes show the bigger longer
            lasting situation??? I don’t know, but I do believe you may be onto something.

            1. you are correct in thinking of rivers and streams as the canary in a mine 🙂 Rivers and streams in the area usually flow into a body of water like a lake or into the ocean. Water takes a while to flow into them. Several of the ponds in the area takes a while to fill up, they are deeper than people think and some of the water seeps through the bottom to the ground water and the other way around as well

          2. Tom curious thought. I will have to take a ride to the spot in Wayland where I kept an eye on the Sudbury river. The multiple ponds, waters out this way seem quite full. I am nowhere near familiar enough with them so cannot judge what is typical. But we appear to be in one of the better areas

      2. The pond I live on in Lakeville doesn’t appear to be doing too bad. It was extremely low last summer but has since made a pretty good recovery. I noticed yesterday that the bog area between my property and the pond is squishy and wet where a few months ago it was very dry and you could practically walk across it. It’s definitely not anywhere near the highest I’ve seen it but it’s also not close to the lowest I’ve seen it either.

  17. Good afternoon.

    For those who kept on saying no more snow for Boston, this one is for you.
    12Z Euro is in and it is looking interestinger and interestinger.

    Imgur.com is having a problem, so I can’t show the snow map.

    But I can tell you it shows thefollowing around the area:

    Boston: 5.2 inches
    Woburn: 7.3
    Sutton: 9.5
    Worcester: 12
    Fitchburg: 13
    Billerica: 8.5
    North Adams: 19

    Does this mean it will happen? NOPE.
    But the GFS has snow for the area, not as much clearly, but it has it.

    GFS 10:1 snow

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017032712/150/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

    GFS Kuchera snow

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017032712/150/snku_acc.us_ne.png

  18. JPDave is 12z EURO showing anything for CT?
    Thanks

    Tweet from Eric Fisher
    Main system to watch this week will be a sloppy cold nor’easter Friday-Saturday. Very cold rain, rough surf, windy, & maybe wet snow too.

    1. Seems to be cutt off just South of the MA/CT border (on this run anyway).

      Waterbury: 1.9
      Hartford: 1.3
      Manchester: 2.0
      Canaan: 7.4

      Have to be near the MA border for anything decent in CT.

      BUT, it is still 4 days off and there could be more snow or NO snow.
      We shall see.

      Sorry, IMGUR still won’t let me post an image.

  20. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mjip73E2fc
    remember 2010, This was 7 years ago!! This was my area of town. It was some fun Kayaking. My house we only had some minor flooding as we are on the highest point of the street. Water made it to the old river bed. at the end of my yard. you can tell because that area is now the greenest location of the yard lol

      1. it is a marsh, its what is suppose to happen 😉 We people are just ignorant of the fact, same with the people that live on the beach side

        1. From the video one would NEVER know it is a marsh.
          It looks like there is a small river or stream there, not
          a marsh.

          What people do not realize is that each river/stream
          has its own attendant “flood plain” which floods almost
          every Spring to some degree or another. Build in the flood plain and you are asking for serious trouble.

          1. so its the shawsheen river with about a half mile wide of Marsh wide. that area also use to be a lake at one point, My dad said it use to freeze and they went skating and Ice fishing before it filled in. The buildings on that street and the street itself has helped created the build up of the marsh. The entire area has been greatly affected by humans. My Grandmother was one of the people who helped protect the area.

      1. My attention has been there all along.
        Not to mention TK highlighted this time period some time ago.
        Should NOT be a surprise to regular readers here.

        TK, I know it is MORE than just the Euro, but that Euro run
        didn’t hurt, did it?

        With Sun angle and boundary layer, could be a sloppy mess.
        BUT it also looks as IF there “could” be intense enough precipitation to really cause problems. IE an accumulation.

        Now I REALLY await the 0Z runs. (screw the 18Z runs)

        Thanks for keeping us posted TK. 😀

  22. Last year, the Marsh behind my house was empty the lowest I ever seen it, It was so low that you could walk across portions in the summer in which usually is at least muddy with a thin layer of water. usually the marsh fills up to the old river bank to about halfway No such thing occured last year. This year we are around the normal height.

      1. Agreed. We really had a 10 inch deficit for 2016?
        I know it was dry through the Summer, but the fall was pretty wet.

        Anyone have the exact totals for some of the climate stations?
        I’d be very curious.

        Many thanks

        1. I tallied up 32.98 inches from Monthly totals.
          I didn’t realize it was that much of a shortfall.

          June through September were particularly brutal:

          1.33
          0.87
          1.72
          1.38

          respectively

          The area was parched.

    1. I would say when Jimmy sees that he will certainly be weeping at that very, very sharp cutoff just south of the Pike.

  25. Regardless of what happens late Friday into the weekend, the Red Sox home opener should be nice with sunshine and low 50s. The only question is if snow removal will be required at Fenway pre-game.

    IIRC wasn’t snow removal needed for the home opener in April 1982?

    1. I honestly don’t remember about the home opener for 1982. We had about
      13 inches of snow on 4/6. Not sure when their home opener was.

      IF it snows with a decent accumulation on Friday night into Saturday, although it will melt quickly, there would be a chance enough would be around on Monday. I guess it depends upon:

      1. IS there an accumulation at all.
      2. How much of an accumulation should it snow.

      Will it? or won’t it? that is the question. TBD

  26. Anyone realize the dates for this Friday and Saturday???

    20 years ago this weekend…

    1. 25.4″

      Time really flies. Next year it will be 40 years since Blizzard of ’78!

      Anyone here feeling old yet? 😉

          1. I remember the snow began, at least in the Holliston/Hopkinton area, around mid-morning. I cannot remember what day of the week. I thought it was a school day but could be VERY wrong about day….not timing.

            1. I was working in Copley Square. It was snowing lightly off and on since about Noon, but it didn’t really get going until about 4 to 4:30PM. I was the last
              one leaving that day and locked up at about 4:30. 1/2 inch of snow on the ground. By the time I had gotten home to JP on the BUS, there was 5-6 inches on the ground with an all out blizzard going on.

        2. That Sunday was Easter Sunday (March 30) and remember how warm it was on that day? Mid-60s. When I saw the Blizzard Warnings on TV, my first reaction is you can’t play April Fools pranks with the news.

    2. Yes, sir. I was getting down past reading to where I could post. At the moment looks like a bust for here. But will enjoy just watching you all while Mark and I peruse menus for the south shore …… 😉

  27. Snow removal was done in April 82. IIRC it snowed on a Saturday into Sunday. The following week snow was removed and warning track restored. The next Sunday was Easter and opening day that Monday. The last piece of equipment left Fenway about 11:00 am on opening day. FWIW Joe Mooney who was groundskeeper at the time had a little trick for snow removal. He would pile snow by the Green Monster and the heat would reflect off of it and help melt the snow. The latest method for field melting is to spread black sand on the snow and this holds the heat of the sun and increases the melting.

    1. Nice info…….why does Joe Mooney sound familiar. I would Not normally know the name of the groundskeeper.

  29. Thinking it will be to warm around these parts by the weekend and we have a not that bad of a week tempature wise . We are power washing very early tomorrow morning.

      1. Captain posted above it was 60s March 30 prior to the April fools day storm. You are correct, Sue!

      2. Weekend as well sue. I hope it works out for you guys but you do know it has to work out 100% perfect for this time of year around here and that’s hard being the last week in march but we know it can indeed happen .

    2. We shall see. You always downplay these events, so you are correct many times. But We shall see on this one. You could be correct again, however, IF TK is concerned, I would be concerned if I were you. 😀

      Things are beginning to line up.

      1. Well the last 3 I’ve been correct . I’ll be at work Saturday anyway so it doesn’t matter .

      2. Whatever happens, happens. I enjoy all kinds of weather like most on here. Plus, I plan on crashing that dinner that you will have to buy Vicki. 🙂

        1. I think you have it wrong I will be wining that bet because in my opinion we will not have a snow storm the rest of the season so I will be enjoying a free steak . Since I don’t drink the bill will be affordable for her lol .

          1. John. The bet was you’d buy me dinner if we had snow. I never said I’d reciprocate. I simply took you up on your offer

  30. Joe was a very colorful character. Easy guy to remember particularly when filling in TV time with postponements during playoffs etc.

  33. 18Z GFS still has snow for 4/1. Up a tic from 12Z, but nothing earth shattering at this time. REMEMBER, it is 18Z GFS.

    1. I look forward to when you finally say “ok dr. Stupid. I’m on board that we have seen our last significant snow storm. No more accumulation of snow until fall.”

      lol

  34. The April Fools Blizzard 20 years ago was a Monday into Tuesday event. I remember having my one and only April snow day and was happy about that since I was able to stay up and watching a thrilling NCAA Championship game between Arizona and Kentucky which Arizona won in overtime.

    1. Yup. I was NOT surprised by that one in the slightest. Saw it coming all the way. 😀 People asked at work how much snow and I put my hand above my knee. 😀 😀

      1. Even I was not surprised. We went early to barn where horses were boarded knowing it might be days before we returned ……we never missed a day so needed to be with them. I remember standing in the open doorway to the barn, enjoying the earthy smells and seeing the flakes begin to fly in earnest. I still remember the feeling of knowing it would be one to remember. Gives me goosebumps.

  35. For Friday/Saturday: before anything else, remember that model snow maps are likely to be near useless in this case.

    My current and very early thinking is rain for most, with potential snow/mix from the MA/NH border northward. I have questions about how far north the precip shield will go given staunch high pressure to the north, which may nullify some of the wintry aspects in areas where they could be thermally supported. To the south, I have strong doubts that cold will be sufficient to produce more white than wet anywhere in SNE. Likely a chilly rainstorm.

    1. Gee what a surprise.

      It’s 4 days out and clearly you could be correct.

      I am going on record as disagreeing with you. 😀
      We shall see.

    2. I believe your right I saw some earlier reports and all had temps down a degree or two lower than this weeks temps and all had rain .

    3. There is something about this potential set-up that concerns me. I’ll get into it when we get a bit closer.

        1. I’m not forecasting a repeat of 1997. I’m looking at a possible set-up that delivers some late-season snow for part of the region. That’s about as far as I can go at this point.

          Saying it will or won’t happen is pure guesswork. Saying it may happen because there are ingredients that can make it happen is part of the meteorological process.

          1. I’m with you, even if it doesn’t happen, it needed to be watched closely regardless. We shall see.

            Euro has been creeping up there. Can’t wait to see what it shows for the 0Z run. GFS is tantalizingly close to a big event. Not there at the moment, but still has some snow flying with a possible accumulation.

            Then again it could end up a cold rain. We shall see.

          2. I suppose “parts of the region” means us South Shore folks shouldn’t get too excited. 🙂

            1. Hard to say. Kind of early to determine that even if it does snow. I’m sure TK
              will zero in on it more at some point.
              Just my thoughts.

          3. Saying it will or won’t happen is pure guesswork.

            It’s not just guesswork. It’s wishful thinking!

            2. It’s not going to happen if the set up isn’t perfect as this is not February anymore . Absolutely we have a watcher and for you snow birds I hope it works out I honestly do but the time of year is tough . Enough said .

  36. Here you go John……I took you up on your offer but never offered a counter. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    South shore kid says:
    March 21, 2017 at 4:03 PM
    If we get another local snow storm I’ll buy you dinner when you come for a visit . I mean storm .
    vicki says:
    March 21, 2017 at 4:26 PM
    I’ll take you up on that. Thanks!! Although, I was not saying we’d get a storm. Spring is also fine with me. I’m missing sitting on the deck and really want to get the new patio under way.

  37. Vicki, the crabcake appetizer looks good. So does the salmon. Perhaps we should order two appetizers? John will have a lot of extra cash after all the plowing and salting Friday night and Sat AM.

    1. Haha. Agree and the lobster bisque is the best I have ever had :). It might be wise to start early so we have time to rest between courses!

      1. Sounds good to me. And John may not drink, but I want a bottle of wine if we are going to be there awhile. 🙂

      1. Yeah, I sort of inserted myself into the bet the other day when I told John he was going down in flames on this one.

        BTW, the NAM looks nice and cold at hour 84 with a band of moderate snow breaking out over Upstate NY Friday and pushing east………

        1. Yeah, I noticed that.

          Look forward to checking the GFS and the Euro and to a much lesser extent, the CMC. BUT I am not waiting up for them. Perhaps if the event were tomorrow, I might, but 4 days off, I can wait. 😀

      2. We all are. Want to join, Philip??

        Now promise not to tell John, but Two things about me…I never make a bet I can lose (hence my never saying I was in); and when I don’t join in, I never hold anyone to the bet. But we can still all get together

        Now, remember…….you promised not to tell John 🙂

        1. Yes, I would be glad to get together and meet some of you if it worked out with my schedule. I would not truly expect John to pay, the satisfaction would be good enough for me 🙂

  38. Australian islands are being battered by a cyclone:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-39409693

    In England, Holland, and Belgium it’s truly spring and has been that way for a while, with sunny days, very little wind, temps in the mid to upper 60s (and even 70 in a few places). Trees are budding with light green leaves, flowers are out, tulips, etc … It’s their one and only glorious season. It’s almost always much nicer this time of year than in Boston. In fact, I can’t remember a year in which Boston’s weather outshined Holland in March. Believe me, you’re ready for spring after experiencing the grays over there from mid September through late February.

    1. This cyclone really came into the coast at a crawl last night. Long duration battering. Thanks for this link !!

  41. As for the end of the week system, like TK, I am keeping an eye on it. while I think that most of the accumulating snow will be from the Merrimack Valley northward and mainly during the nighttime hours, and also favoring the higher terrain, hat’s not nearly set in stone yet.

    I mentioned this in my Weekly Outlook last night – at this time of year, you need a nearly perfect setup to get accumulating snow around here. This one isn’t perfect, but there are elements that are needed showing up on various models. Combine them, and then watch out. On my forecasts that I’m writing tonight, I’m going for a cold rain, but mentioning that there is a chance for some accumulating snow, especially Friday night/Saturday morning, and that this will need to be monitored for the next few days.

    1. Thanks Sak. Again I just love how you word things. I am definitely not a weather expert but like you just mentioned this time of year you need an absolutely perfect / no room for Eror set up as I was saying last night. Thank you. I guess we just wait and see if things come together but if I was a betting man I’d go with the cold rain set up but I’ll leave that to the experts .

  42. Canadian model is in its own fantasy land giving parts of eastern mass 12+ of snow. Or maybe it’s playing an April fools joke on us

    1. It is not in it’s own fantasy land, since the ECMWF did the same thing on the 12z run. Plus, the setup the Canadian has is almost exactly what we need to get heavy snow at this time of year – namely a closed low nearly overhead or just to our south. I absolutely cannot disregard it this point.

  43. Good morning. Well, with all that was said above, looking over the model output, once again we have model divergence leaving the final outcome in doubt.

    The 0Z Euro has backed off considerably, leaving perhaps and inch or 2 in the Boston area with more well to the N&W. While the CMC wants to completely unload on us with the GFS in the middle. The NAMS show signs of producing copious amounts of snow, but they do not go far enough out just yet.

    I was going to post some maps, but seriously what’s the point right now with all
    of the model divergence. It’s certainly still a watcher. We shall see.

    Now I await the 12Z suit of model runs to monitor changes.

    It concerns me that the Euro has backed off so emphatically. Is it just the normal model wobble as it zeros in on a solution OR has the superior model actually picked
    up on what the final solution might be???? Who knows.

    12Z time. Let’s see.

  44. To the snow naysayers:

    Wishing or hoping it does not snow is perfectly fine and completely understandable, but Emphatically stating that it will not is complete fantasy and wishful thinking.

    Sure, in this case, it may end up not snowing at all, but summarily dismissing the possibility is pure folly.

    1. I’m a big fan of fantasy and wishful thinking. I’m a writer whose back aches at the mere thought of shoveling.

      1. As long as one recognizes it is wishful thinking there is no issue.
        Just don’t turn it into reality.

        Hey, during the Winter I am the biggest offender when it comes
        to wishful thinking regarding snow storm threats. I work very hard at trying to separate that thinking from reality. Sometimes not so successfully, but try I do. 😀

        1. After 2015’s back to back storms crumbled our driveway, wrecked our roof and gutters, basically wreaked havoc on my back… I’ll gladly take the mantle of that Go West song from Pretty Woman and say I’m the King of wishful thinking. lmao

          We’re done with accumulating snow until late fall!

          1. I’m perfectly fine with that, but I would not upset me with another accumulating event. The weather is SO SHITTY anyway, what the hell is the difference.

            I understand the back and damage issue.

            For the first time in a long time, we had an ice dam 2 years ago. I had to get the roof shoveled off twice to get rid of that dam. Fortunately there was just some water stains on the ceiling of a closet and that was it.

    2. My thinking is the time of year old salty as even Sak made mention to it. We need the perfect storm scenario ( everything to line up right ) the perfect hand if you will . That’s not wishful thinking that’s reality. “

  45. On the 0Z Euro run, the snow totals look like this:

    Boston: 0.9 inch
    Worcester: 2.4 inches
    Fitchburg: 3.8 inches

    That represents an 83% reduction in snow forecast for Boston.
    I’d say that is a SIGNIFICANT back off, no? Similar percentage back offs for all of SNE. Close to 75% for Fitchburg.

  46. In the FWIW department, the 0Z FIM has ZERO snow for Boston and only
    a couple of inches well to the N&W, a solution closer to the Euro.

  47. In another FWIW department, the Taunton NWS does not appear to be very
    bullish on snow chances. Let’s see IF they change their tune later today. 😀

  48. I think the NWS discussion for Friday/Saturday is well worded and aligns nicely with my thoughts, which haven’t changed. Still quite a bit of time to watch it though, it won’t be until tomorrow that we can start to gain higher confidence. But I do believe any cold will be too marginal for snow most areas south of the MA/NH border. As SAK noted, elevation will likely play a role as well.

    1. I think the Euro was listening to your thoughts. 😀

      I may change my mind after the 12Z runs. Not convinced it will be rain just
      yet. These Spring events can be notoriously tricky.

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