Tuesday Forecast

114 Comments

7:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)
Forecast update. Additional discussion to come later.
TODAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog/drizzle. Risk of rain showers and a thunderstorm South Coast. Rain returns all areas by late day. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers and possible thunderstorms evening. Patchy fog. Lows 32-40. Wind light variable to N.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Windy. Chance of rain/snow showers early. Highs 37-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Lows 25-33. Highs 40-48.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain/mix/snow evening-night. Lows 25-33. Highs 38-45.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain likely. Lows 29-35. Highs 35-42.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 2-6)
Unsettled weather may linger April 2 then return by April 5-6. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 7-11)
A continuation of an unsettled and cooler than normal pattern is expected.

114 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK. For today, looks like good potential for half an inch of rain for most of the region, possibly up to an inch. Heaviest amounts, as well as a low chance for some thunder, likely to favor areas south of the Pike and probably closer to the South Coast. Much needed rain, and it’s good news, because I was worried several days ago that this unsettled period may not produce much in the way of precip. Today and the late week system should help with that.

  6. This is Spring? Oh, well. We can use the rain; glad about that. But would be nice to see the sun for a change.

    2. It is all my fault, rainshine. I got the new glasses Saturday and haven’t had sun to test if the darken as much as I would like

  9. Oh Good. Just what we need!! Here is some info re: American Computer models

    (28 March 2017): Due to problems with NCEP’s data feed, maps and/or soundings may be slightly delayed for some American models.

  12. Ok, 12Z NAM is complete. Still indeterminate. Looks promising, but I can’t tell
    what it will do beyond 84 hours. It has cold rain or wet snow or Both in here
    with snow accumulating to the West.

    0Z run tonight should be more telling.

  13. Quick peak of 12z NAM on cod site burst of wintry precipitation for Friday late morning through afternoon. Very small accumulation for interior parts of MA and CT but since its falling during the day I think these small amounts are over done.

    1. It needs to be a perfect storm this time of year with no room for eror for around these parts anyway .

  14. 12Z GFS is trying to head through the Lakes. We’ll see if it makes it before
    a redevelopment takes place on the coast.

  15. Friday night would be critical time and that is where I anticipate most of the precip falling, but hard to nail down 6 hour intervals this far out. Don’t expect any significant winter event, but with a drain of cold air coming down off north winds, just maybe…

    Have I said how much I detest the Kuchera snow tool method in the Spring?? Ok, my broken record will stop.

    1. Yes you have said that but the 10:1 has no clue as to what the
      ratio might be this time of year. I understand how you might take the
      10:1 and come up with a ratio and reduce the snow accordingly.
      But just looking at a single map, the Kuchera is closer to reality that
      a 10:1 map for lower ratio snow. No? Btw and fwiw, for the event you missed while on vacation, the Kuchera maps almost nailed it perfectly.

      1. Actually, a 10:1 ratio is more likely at this time of year. The problem is, that just takes the amount of precip that will fall as snow, not what will actually accumulate. The Kucera maps doesn’t take that into account either.

        1. The Kuchera maps at 48 hours plus were not even close on the storm that I missed. A matter of fact they were off by as much as 50% in coastal and valley locations in SNE.

          10:1 with applied meteorology a much better option

          1. The Kuchera I looked at had 7.4 for boston and I measured 7.5 at my house.

            To be fair, I was looking more close in, say 24 hours or less.

            I completely understand what you mean by the 10:1.

            What I am trying to say is that for those unknowing, the kuchera gives a better representation than the 10:1. The unknowing person could look at a 10:1 map and think they were getting clobbered with 12 inches plus, when in reality it would be more like 4-6 inches.

        2. Yup, I get that. Snow maps are always difficult.

          We non-mets here used to take them verbatim, but we have been schooled by TK and JMA and now more recently yourself. Most of us now understand what
          those maps are all about and do also understand
          that amounts will be even less when factoring in marginal surface temperatures and sun angle if daytime.

          But thank you and thank you JMA for continually reminding us and cautioning us about the maps use.

          😀

  19. Euro is CRAZY!
    Keeps snow in the air for about 30 hours or so.
    With marginal temps and sun angle, snow map is probably useless, although
    Friday night it will accumulate some.

    Map shortly.

      1. boston: 6.2 inches
        Worcester: 14.5
        Fitchburg: 17.7
        sutton: 9.3

        There is some rain for a time Southern and Eastern areas.

        Suffice to say, most interesting.

        Stay tuned for future runs as we see how this plays out.

        1. Whatever methodology the Eurowx site is using is completely useless if that map is its output snowtool.

          Keep posting but maps will not be your friend here. The knowledge you have gained and sought out so often will guide you better.

          1. I did post: With marginal temps and sun angle, snow map is probably useless

            But, yes, I’ll continue to post them.

            Should be interesting for sure.

    1. I posted your name on that very subject, Jimmy! 😀

      I suspect the only way for your area to get into the snow, the storm needs to pass a bit further south.

  21. LOL!!!
    If I see an accumulation of snow on Friday Philip its just icing on the cake. Two storms that dumped just over a foot of snow I am happy considering how warm this winter was.

  22. We may come close to a record for the least amount of sun over a fairly long stretch from now through the first 10 days of April. Let’s do it! 😀 Are you in Dave? 😀 😀

    1. If you think I’m good with that, I have some swamp land in Florida for you.
      That being said, If we approach the record at all, then yeah sure, I’m in. 😀

    3. I’m trying to have a patio built………..this is NOT working for me. Although, any contractor I have here laughs at me because I’m always telling them there is no rush!

      1. late april should be the time to do patio. cool but most of the mud has ended 😉 then again you could be mean and make who ever is doing the patio doing in May/June with that sun angle like my parents :/

  23. Hmmm I know it is 18Z, but the 18Z NAM is offering a pretty cold solution with
    850mb temperatures below -3C. Interesting.

  25. Terrible news out of Texas today. 2-vehicle crash. 3 fatalities, at least 2, possibly all 3, were storm chasers. No names or details yet.

  26. Hey old salty I bet your doing a little snow dance over there lol. I can see it now . I wish I could post something here from my face book page regarding snow you’d be on the floor laughing as I was.

      1. I hear that my friend . Serious about my posting a guy is going nuts I got to get the bread & milk.

    1. Look at that, no one would be spared ….. Snow all the way to Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

      1. I know right?! Cross country skiing on the islands at the end of April! You can go to the beach and ski at the same time! 😀 😀 😀

          1. Sure I do! Almost 30th anniversary of the April 28-29 1987 snowstorm. I mean after all we have a 20th anniversary of the April Fools storm coming up, so why not? 😉

  32. Re Fri night and Sat
    I am in wait and see mode.
    Been sucker in too many times.
    We shall see. Getting very interesting.

          1. It’s not 1997 certainly…

            But the ingredients are in place for it. What remains unknown are the details.

            Snow threat does not mean every single inch of southern New England is going to be nailed with big snow.

            We have a storm system coming up Friday into Saturday that will probably produce some measurable snow for part of and possibly much of southern New England. Initially favored areas are away from the South Coast, but as for detail, we’ll start trying to nail those down beginning tomorrow.

  34. Kind of sad reading this story about 3 storm chasers killed today from a car accident while chasing a tornado.

    1. A tragedy. They risk their lives to bring an understanding of the complexity of storms through their passion.

    1. Brings the warm layer in here like the GFS. Nothing like the 18Z run, which I suppose is to be expected. Next up GFS and Euro. 😀 Still delivers some snow
      ahead of the warming.

    1. That’s a stretch. The storm is moving in from the west across Ohio and PA, and then redeveloping off the NJ coast.

  37. No idea how the algorithm comes up with 6-12″ of snow across much of CT, RI, and eastern MA. Doesn’t jive with the surface map which shows more rain and a quicker changeover.

  42. Latest NAM pushes axis of snow farther North as does the Euro.
    This may be resolving itself as we get closer here. Looks like there may
    not be much snow across most of SNE with the snow confined to Central and Northern
    NE.

    Perhaps there will be some changes with the 12Z runs, but looks like more Rain here than anything. We shall see.

    Oddly, the GFS has shifted more snow to SNE than previous runs, so we still have to monitor.

  43. Very tricky forecast for Friday/Saturday. At this point, the highest confidence areas look to be coastal areas (at least within ~25 miles of the coast), where rain and perhaps some sleet pellets should dominate, and areas well to the north and west of Boston, like southern-central NH and the Berkshires, where several inches of wet snow is increasingly likely. In between is a real mess though. For example, the 3z SREF plumes at Worcester indicate near equal chances of rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain for much of the event.

    Looking like quite a bit of QPF to play with as well. 1″+, maybe even 1.5″+ in some places.

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