Friday Forecast (Update)

209 Comments

6:31PM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
The main precipitation is arriving and will continue through Saturday morning with a fairly wide swath of mixed rain/snow/sleet, dominated by sleet across central and eastern MA, with more rain to the south and snow to the north (far northern MA into NH). The rain/mix/snow line will head back to the southeast as the storm pulls away Saturday. Snow/sleet totals (through tomorrow) still break down this way: Under 1 inch South Coast including Cape Cod, southern RI, and southern CT, 1-2 inches northeastern CT, northern RI, and nearby southern MA eastward to the South Shore up to about the Mass Pike, 2-4 inches just north of the Mass Pike to northeastern MA and NH Seacoast with the lower amounts favoring the coast from Boston to Cape Ann, and 4 inches or more north central MA into interior southern NH. Also looking for quite a bit of wind as the storm intensifies offshore Saturday with some minor coastal flooding at the time of the mid afternoon high tide. A weak disturbance will bring some cloudiness and possibly a passing rain/snow shower Sunday. High pressure moves in Monday with dry but chilly weather for the Red Sox home opener. But the continued active pattern allows the next storm to be here Tuesday with what looks like mainly rain but possibly some sleet.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow with some sleet mixed in at times NH and far northern MA, sleet dominating with occasional snow/rain mixed in through much of central and east central MA, and mainly rain to the south. Lows 30-38. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Precipitation very gradually tapering off west to east with snow/mix/rain line moving back to the south with time. Highs 34-41. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH with gusts 40 MPH or greater coastal areas.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few rain/snow showers. Lows 30-38. Highs 38-45.
MONDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Lows 28-35. Highs 44-51.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain and possible sleet arriving. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 5-9)
Another period of unsettled weather April 6-8 which may include some mix/frozen as well as rain. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 10-14)
A break in the active pattern as it turns drier but temperatures remain mostly below to near normal.

209 thoughts on “Friday Forecast (Update)”

  3. Thanks TK. They have now downgraded my winter weather advisory to nothing. Also, current radar = useless for determining rain/snow line.

  8. I do believe it is now RAINING in JP. Hard to tell for sure without being outside
    but vis tells the story and I see drops in the puddles, but I do NOT see SNOW.
    Intensity it PUNEY LIGHT so it flipped over. Not surprised. WHERE OH HERE is
    this so called heavier precipitation? NO WHERE to be seen at the moment.

    Perhaps the energy in transferring causing a bit of a lull????

  9. OK Mystery Solved. I just went out.

    It is NOT Raining, BUT it is SLEETING. No Snow, 100% SLEET

    Well there goes the modeling to hell in a hand basket.

    I’d say the sleet arrived about 3-5 hours early! Go Figure!

    1. I Don’t know if it is a bubble of warmth above OR it is the full blown warm layer.
      My guess: The WARM layer is now above Boston and will be for some time now.

      We shall See.

  10. Hmm Temp now 33. It usually goes up with sleet and not down.
    Those ice pellets must be awfully Cold. 😀 😀 😀

  12. Chilly light rain here. Must be near 32F because the bit of snow and sleet on our deck isn’t melting.

  14. I’m surprised that in about 30 minutes we have a solid coating of sleet. Doesn’t appear to be on pavement but on deck, car, etc.

    1. This was a blast to watch. Thank you. I was a year away from moving from school to the working world. I note the pru was pictured. No Hancock tower as yet. And I love the handwritten graphics. I agree with JPD that tech is great but makes me nostalgic. And I loved Gidget.

      Thank you again, Joshua

    2. Awesome. I knew Roland Boucher. I used to work with him at
      Air Force Cambridge Research Labs. He and I went Skiing at Killington in
      February 1969, the day of the first big snow storm that February. It was amazing as we drove home in a raging snow storm. 😀

  16. Has the NWS reduced its snow projections yet? 33 degrees in North Reading and full blown sleet. At this rate, I don’t think we are going to get the 8-12 being predicted by NWS. 🙂

  18. While it’s been precipitating for a while in terms of hours, I’d guess 80 to 90% of the precip to fall is yet to come. 🙂 🙂

    1. Nice. And I give up in nothing until the fat lady sings and even then I will enjoy her song no matter what.

      I am enjoying the sleet right now more than if it were snow. I love the sound of it against the window while I read and listen to music.

  20. We’ll see if my under 1″ projection in Boston holds. Probably not, but it’s possible. Better chance of that than 6-8″. Snowing and sticking here in Plymouth, NH. We should get several inches but are north of the jackpot zone. Neat little storm though.

    1. I still disagree with you. Boston makes that 1 inch no sweat and the 6-8 is not
      off the table. May not happen, but it is not off the table.

  21. There is absolutely TREMENDOUS SLEET going on here right now.

    According the the HRRR, it goes back to snow for a few hours (I don’t believe that, but we shall see) and then It SLEETS all night!!! No Rain. Until about 6AM when the heavens Open up with some really really HEAVY SNOW. I am thinking that transition
    happens sooner than modeled. Again, we’ll know tomorrow. 😀

  27. I may be seeing what I want, but I swear it looks like there is a bit of snow mixing in.
    The intensity is so heavy, I am wondering if it is enough to cool that layer some and
    allow a few flakes through? I have seen that before. Will keep watching. 😀

  32. Sleet here is a fair amount but sounds as if heavier where you are OS

    There is snow mixed with our sleet.

    1. And it is Awesome

      Don’t forget to keep your devices charged.

      I figure I’m my own worst enemy. If I didn’t charge them, we’d lose power 🙁

    2. Cool. Did you read above under Joshua’s post?

      Every now and then I think I see some snow mixed in, but even so it is so
      predominately SLEET.

  36. JPD. Putting it here. We have snow mixed with the sleet although at this point it is hard to tell what it is. May be trying to change to snow

  37. Well, Now as this is evolving, it looks like it may be just a SLEET Fest.
    Each run the of the HRRR has less snow and more sleet. Boston may end up
    with 2 inches of sleet and that is it. We shall see. 😀 The backend is getting more
    and more short changed or so it appears. Perhaps it will change with later runs?

    1. Hmmmmm.

      I told you that if we charge devices everything will fall apart.

      Ok, EVERYONE unplug your devices now please

  44. We have rain more than sleet now

    And JPD keep up the posts. I’m totally enjoying you being here

  45. They are treating roads here and I’m hearing more sleet against windows again. If there were a dry chair on deck, I’d go sit outside. This is awesome

  46. Real accumulation in the Boston area will tomorrow morning through the early afternoon. Just walking from office to train and it’s still sleet and rain.

  48. 32 here in groveland…so far in the far ne part of the state we’ve got a little more than 2.5 inches…it had switched to sleet about a half hour ago, but the snow is mixing in again

    1. May not be what was forecast or may well be since we have quite a way to go but I think is one interesting storm

    1. Watching TV with Mrs. OS.

      Watching news in a moment.

      It is RAINING HERE !(@#(&*!@)(#&)(*!&@#*()&!(#&)!(&#@(!&#@

  50. As I said previously, I think Our snow chances and accumulation have been completely
    undermined by that damn warm layer aloft.

    The snow tomorrow morning may be too little too late.

    SEE YA. Boton may makes the 1 inch, but it AIN’T Making the 4-6 inches
    advertised by the NWS. And I thought Eric was too low with his numbers.
    He’s likely to come out as having NAILED this one. 😀 😀 😀

    I suppose that has not verified just yet, but looking that way to me.

    Oh well, it was/is interesting just the same. 😀

  52. A lot of accidents happening during the last 20 minutes in the rate 95 / 495 area in the fox. / Mansfield area according to the scanner

  57. With the widespread and prolonged sleet / rain as far north as it was I updated the update (haha) to trim the #’s back a little bit since sleet’s ratio is far lower than snow’s. Still get some accumulating snow during the morning-midday of Saturday.

  59. The much-maligned NAM absolutely nailed this one. It had the change to sleet earlier than all the other models (and timed just about right), and it had the duration of sleet/rain just about right.

    3. Seems to have been handling these winter storm situations well this winter.

      37.9 and pouring in North Attleboro.

  60. My work is providing snow and ice management in the winter. Our home office is Middleboro but the zone I manage is based in roslindale but has sites in mattapan, Newton and Wellesley too. This morning my quality control drive took me from Middleboro and through all of said locations. Each area had different levels of accumulation with Wesllesly winning out (3/4″ of very dense “slush” on paved surfaces). The interesting observation was at our biggest site in Roslindale. Almost 0 accumulation on paved surfaces. This location is at the top of the hill at the edge Eneking Parkway. Its one of the highest elevations n the Boston area next to the blue hills and usually gets the higher accumulations due to this. It’s not unusual for JPDave to report 2″ in his area but for our site to have 3-4 even though we are prob less than a mile away. I would have bet money that the higher elevation would produce more especially this type of event.

    TLDR; Is it possible higher elevations had reduced accumulation due to the thin warm layer that was discussed?

  62. How close to the ocast is the snow? will it get here?
    Eric said 7AM????

    37 and still raining here.

    fwiw, NWS placed Boston back in Winter Storm Warning or perhpas never took Boston out.

    re-issued at 4AM for 4-10 inches, with 4 on immediate coast.

    probably still too high as per usual with them.

    do they use the snowman crystal ball?

  64. AND STILL the HRRR is NOT NOT NOT verifying!!!
    The RAP is closer to reality but is missing the rain/snow line by about 20 miles or so for now.

    1. white lead, that must be hot stuuf. be careful.

      most of what we had, say about 1/2 to 3/4 inch has been pissed away by fuckacta rain.

  66. SAK said it, the NAM nailed this, yet again. It doesn’t get much respect, but it’s been flying high all winter. And the upgraded version is a definite step up from the old one, which was still doing very well earlier in the winter. Obviously the NAM has been iffy in the past, but just maybe now we’ve got a model we can trust out to 3 days at least.

    Just looking outside here in Plymouth, NH, we must have a good 8-10″ of wet snow on the ground, everything is plastered.

    1. Well at least somewhere got some snow. pouring rain here and now it looks as though you may end up being correct after all. This weather stuff is tricky business.

      Stay tuned for any changes, will post when/if it flips to snow and how much IF any accumulates.

  71. less than 1 inch of snow/sleet here in Billerica. Rain with temperature 34. So much for the snow. I do not see how we could see what the national weather service is saying.

    1. I am getting pretty fed up with them. This snow best materialize, else the nws will look like a bunch of horses asses!

  72. AM I to believe this poopaganda

    Boston, Massachusetts
    01 Apr 2017, 7:20 AM

    Light Rain
    38°F
    Feels Like
    27°F
    Humidity: 97%
    Wind Speed: 22mph
    Wind Direction: 50°
    Dew Point: 37°
    Visibility: 2.5mi
    Today: Rain and snow this morning, becoming snow for the afternoon. Windy. Some sleet may mix in. Temps nearly steady in the mid 30s. Winds NNE at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of precip 100%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.
    Tonight: Some lingering evening flurries or snow showers. Overcast. Low 32F. Winds NNW at 15 to 25 mph.
    Hourly Forecast | 10-Day Forecast | Past Observa

  74. Little bit of sleet accumulation on the lawn and the cars.
    GROSS out there for first day of April.

  75. Still has not changed in Pelham, NH. I definitely expected to see the change back by now. 3-4 inches of cement from yesterday.

  77. AND STILL the HRRR and RAP are NIT even initializing properly with respect
    to precipitation type. These 2 models are in their own little fantasy world!!!!

  78. AT 8AM RAINING in Boston, Beverley, Lawrence, Bedford and Fitchburg!!!!!

    WHERE OH WHERE is this supposed change to snow coming from??????????????

    there are no signs of it at all! is it suddenly going to come from above like a switch being thrown? I highly doubt that.

    What a pathetic BUST@@@@^^%^%^*^*&^&%^&%

      1. Doubt it. Where is that coming from? I would think we would see rain changing over upstream.

        1. Well, now the boundary layer is running at 35 to 38, so I kind of think the cooling has to come from the warm layer cooling and then the heavy precip, of which there is plenty to come, brings some cooler air down towards the surface.

          1. When the low moves far enough east (assuming there is enough precip) the wind shifts to more of a northerly component cooling the boundary layer and importing some colder air bith at the surface and aloft. this can happen rapidly and the changeover could collapse from the NH border to Boston in a matter of 15 min to 1/2 hour.

    2. I see the RADAR is up to it’s usual accuracy standards. WHY BOTHER having it at all IF it can’t even be CLOSE to accurate?????????

      Just question de hour and my morning bitch.

      https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.2608695652173913&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=342.5&centery=397.16666666666663&transx=-57.5&transy=157.16666666666663&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24850815&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  80. Here is what disgusts and frustrates me….

    Note: this does NOT apply to the distinguished resident mets here.

    WHY can’t they get the forecast correct even 12 hour out, even while in progress????

    This warm layer REALLY invaded the area much farther North and west than anticipated and much Faster as well. (note we were well warned here. no complaints here at all. I am talking about the NWS and most TV outlets (Eric Fisher excepted).

    Is the main reason the warm invaded so far was that the retreating high was:

    a. not strong enough
    b. not cold enough
    c. The track of the storm allowed it
    d. all of the above

    1. I would say that the high was not in the perfect location to force the storm a bit further south. Just my 2c.

  81. Good morning. My yard looks like a wasteland of wet slush. It is just plain nasty. I’m just waking up so have not even thought of measuring…if one can measure this stuff. I hear sleet hitting windows but also water pouring down the drainspouts so suspect it is mixed.

    Thanks everyone for the great discussion above.

    1. Thanks for the update. 1st sign of the general change. Push it on down this way, would ya? thanks

    1. This would have been an impressive snow event had it been 5 degrees colder throughout.

  84. I would submit we’ve had two “different” events within the same storm.

    The first half was un-spring like. With all the sleet, we had a cold lower atmosphere. Not unheard of in late March early April, but that phase was more like a winter storm where a layer of mid level warmth is in play.

    Today is more spring like. The level above will cool, now it’s the lowest boundary layer that’s the struggle. I offer that some snow and a few heavy bands of wet snow will be seen today. How well it accumulates, who knows …..

    2. Good comment Tom. It almost…but not quite (which is suppose means almost) seems to be the opposite here. Yesterday was a cold spring day with a quarter inch or so of light rain lasting all day. Overnight we had .33 in the rain gauge of what appears to be a combination of rain and sleet. And today is sleet with some rain thrown in. Feels more wintery to me than yesterday in Sutton

      Observation on rain gauge. I can see it has a layer of sleet in its collection area so the measurement above for overnight must be low

        1. I’m OUT OF MY MIND!!!

          I read that as Where are you, not How are you?

          Been looking for snow for 2+ hours and am going batty!

          Sorry

  87. I suspect that whatever snow we get later today will be the last of the season…at least here in SNE.

  88. Have 2 inches of cement in Chelmsford. Just watched Channel 7, still forecasting 6-12 for my area. That has to be quite a clip of snow in the next 6 hours or so to hit the bottom mark. We’ll see.

  89. NWS just issued a flood warning for Middlesex County. I guess that foot of snow we got last night is going to melt pretty quickly — haha. I honestly don’t understand how NWS gets things so wrong.

      1. hmmmmm, when did they start to become bad and over forecast snow??? I believe sometime in January 😉

    2. I thought I might have seen few flakes. Best way to know is being
      in the car and looking at the windshield. best method ever. pretty tough, until it is obvious, by looking out the window. Too many drips from trees that may resemble the wet snow flake.

  94. Actually, I do believe we have sleet mixing in, actually considerable sleet. I can see it and hear it on the windows. First sign of colder air. It has cooled below the warm layer, but not the surface yet. It will erode the warm layer soon

    1. CONFIRMED!

      I checked an East facing window. Those sleet pellets are bouncing all over the place! FINALLY! shouldn’t be long for the snow.

  95. Good morning all!

    Sorry a bit late to the party.

    I agree with SAK. But I had my doubts on the NAM this time and have been burned by trusting an upgrade too much, but the model has done a great job with 2 important events in a row for this area, so that’s big points. Does it mean I’m going to suddenly trust it every time? No way.

    It’s been pounding sleet in Woburn for the last 1/2 hour and now we are transitioning to snow here.

    Will update blog soon!

  96. Wet snow flakes here in Coventry CT. Unfortunately, not much precip left to work with here. We’ve got a coating of sleet and slop on the ground from last night.

  100. We are all switching at the same time just changed to snow in Pelham, NH. This is coming from above not north to south.

    1. Not coming from above as we are sleet here. The cold is sneaking in above the ground, but Under the warm layer at first and then it eventually erodes the warm layer and transitions to snow. Farther North, it might erode that warm layer quicker and thus have a much shorter period of sleet or even go right to snow, but down here we’re getting the sleet first.

  106. So far today alone we’ve had .84 inches of rain and it is miserable outside. We’ve had enough rain lately that it’s starting to make it’s way through the foundation and into the basement. This hasn’t happened in quite a few years.

    I did a 10 mile run in the heart of the downpour this morning. Anytime my route went east, into the wind I got slammed with rain in my face. By the time I finished I couldn’t feel my legs, hands, or arms. This makes 5 Saturdays in a row of running in less than nice weather conditions.

    1. Yikes. And kudos to you for getting out in this weather for 10 miles.

      I was wondering how the enormous puddle of slush on the grass could/would affect the basement here

      1. We normally do well in the basement until we have lots of rain in a short period of time. Back when we had the big flooding of 2010 (I think) we had inches of water in the basement and the pond behind our house was in my yard. Over the years we’ve sealed various weak spots but it still can make its way in. Recently though since it’s been so dry we haven’t had any problems. That’s changing now.

        1. Good luck, Jeff. We have only been in this house a year so don’t know what to expect. We have not seen any sign of basement water so am keeping fingers crossed

  109. The Sleet put down a nice 1/2 hour worth of icy ball bearings, cooling the pavements.
    This will start to stick on the roads quite quickly. Temperature is responding.
    Down to 36 and dropping.

    1. The temp down here has actually gone up a tick in a few hours. When I got up it was 40 and is now sitting at 41.5. Waiting for drop though.

  114. Just saw Barry Burbanks 7 day temp forecast.

    Many 50F readings.

    Not going to be greedy for early April, I will be happy with that.

    Pouring here, boundary layer too mild.

    1. I seem to recall snow here just after we moved in (as well as one just before I moved) just a year ago. Then we were outside enjoying the yard a lot too. Gotta love New England spring. One day never seems to dictate what the next will be.

  116. The rain has definitely gone down in intensity here in Lakeville. Still at .84 inches with a moderate E/NE wind. Temp pretty steady at 41.4.

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