Sunday Forecast

125 Comments

8:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 2-6)
Active weather pattern continues. High pressure builds in tonight and hangs around Monday providing a nice day for the Red Sox home opener. The next storm arrives by early Tuesday with a good slug of rain (maybe mixed with sleet briefly in a few areas) but moves right along allowing another decent day Wednesday, although cloudiness may linger for a while. The next in a parade of storms arrives Thursday with the main body of this one looking like a decent rain event too. This pattern is quickly putting to shame my forecast for a drier trend beginning in April, but of much more importance is it is bringing needed rainfall to alleviate a still-ongoing drought.
TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Patchy black ice. Lows 29-36. Wind light NW.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 45-53. Wind light variable to light SE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 33-40. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain (brief sleet mix possible), may be heavy at times, before tapering off late. Highs 43-50. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W late.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Lows 33-40. Highs 45-53.
THURSDAY: Clouding over. Chance of rain PM. Lows 33-40. Highs 43-50.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 7-11)
Unsettled with rain showers April 7 and rain/snow showers April 8. Next round of unsettled weather due late in the period. Temperatures generally below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 12-16)
A brief warm-up may occur in the April 12-14 period before cooling again, though the weather may be a little less unsettled during this time.

125 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  5. Good morning, everyone…

    Taunton River is in minor flooding stage. Its depth rose from 4.81′ on Friday to 8.21′ as of right now. It’s expected to crest at 8.26′ later today. With two more rain events possible this week, we’ll have to keep an eye on it.
    The all-time record crest of the Taunton River was seven years ago yesterday at 14.97′. Route 44 on the Taunton-Raynham line was closed for days.

    Enjoy the day everyone!
    Sox tomorrow!!!!

  8. TK – Are we going to be close to a repeat of the 2010 floods? There is water in my basement already just from yesterday’s rain.

    1. Going to be testing the sump pumps today. Maybe replacing the battery on the back up.

    3. My sump pump has been in a dry hole for about 2 months when it usually has some water at the bottom most times. Checked today and still empty, strange.

  9. 1) In April, Boston’s average high temperature starts at51 degrees and ends at _____.

    A. 51
    B. 56
    C. 61
    D. 66

    2) Name the hardest hit area during the second worst-ever US tornado outbreak of 1977.

    A. Xenia, OH
    B. Louisville, KY
    C. Tanner, AL
    D. Tupelo, MS

    Answers later today.

      1. The answer to #1 is C. #2 is either a trick question or has a typo, since there were no real memorable tornado outbreaks in 1977, certainly not the 2nd worst-ever in the US.

  10. NWS expressing moderate confidence not just for the Tuesday event but for the Thursday-Friday one as well. If these were snows, their confidence would be low and “extremely” low. I have always wondered why rain events are always a sure thing days in advance but snow events have so many complications just hours in advance.

    1. There’s a large difference between 3″ and 8″ of snow, but it isn’t quite as big a difference to most people between 0.3″ and 0.8″ of rain.

      1. Agree and also, IF there is a miss by 50 miles if it is a rain event, no one notices any difference, it still rains, However, if people in the zone where it moved get rain instead of snow I have a feeling it would be noticed.

  12. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Warming up quicker that I thought today.

    Perhaps the weather for the SOX game tomorrow won’t be so bad after all?

    1. Should be fine. Sun getting filtered and temp falling from the upper to middle 40s with a light east wind.

  13. Captain, Thanks for information on the Taunton River. I forgot to check the sudbury when I was in framingham the other day. I was too busy looking for celebrities! But behind SILs office building in Ashland, it is running higher than I’ve seen it in a while.

  14. Setting of trap for squirrel was a success.

    I nabbed a critter yesterday and released it.

    Hopefully that is the only one. We had all 3 chimneys repaired with 2 of them
    taken down and rebuilt from the roof line up. One was inactive as it served
    fire places long ago (the house was built in the 1850s). Apparently, some squirrels
    made a home in the inactive one. We were hopeful the all were out when the chimney
    work was complete and the chimney capped. Nope there must have been a brick
    loose below somewhere and at least one (hope not several) squirrels were able
    to get out into the walls. There is a crawl space accessible from our attic and that
    is where I set the trap.

    One down and hopefully that is it. If anyone wants to know, squirrels LOVE
    peanut butter so that was the bait of choice. They also love peanuts in the shell.

    We have been fighting the squirrel battle for years. They are cute little critters, but they have cost me thousands so I HATE the little buggers!

    1. Oh, I should have added, I use a “Have A Heart” trap that does NOT harm
      the animal in any way.

        1. Chimneys are all capped. They cannot get in or out that way. I also did a visual inspection around the outside of the house. I can’t finD ANY ENTRANCE. We had it painted last fall and took care of any possible entrance locations, we hope anyway.

          Time will tell. So far NO squirels today.

          1. Wow. Glad he did not die in the walls….mice can smell awful for a couple of weeks. I can’t begin to think what a squirrel would do. Job well done, JPD

    1. Awesome list Vicki, Great job.

      question? I thought SAK said “City of Champions”. You interpreted that
      as Boston. I do Believe it is Brockton as the home of:

      Rocky Marciano
      Marvin Hagler

      😀 😀 😀

      BUT then I shouldn’t butt in. Perhaps SAK wanted Boston listed? I dunno

      1. No. I had no idea and think of Boston but will change to Brockton…..with all due respect to Brockton, that would not have been my guess. Thank you JPD

          1. Thank you, SAK. I have no doubt nor did I that it is city of champions once pointed out. No reason de me not to believe and, as always, once pointed out, I did my due diligence. It has proven some interesting conversation here, however. I figured if anyone knew, it would be my SIL who is a walking sports encyclopedia. He did not and I’ll keep his comment to myself….for a bit anyway.

            My last hope is my son but won’t see him for a few days.

  16. Keep in mind, higher rivers do not necessarily mean “drought over”. It means recent short term heavier precipitation and/or snowmelt. At this point it is a bit of both. “Drought over” is edging closer, but not here yet, although big improvement in Maine due to the melting of a near record to record snow pack.

    1. No drought about that here. The Sudbury was cresting at the level of Pelham Island Road in Wayland (a road that knows flooding well) just prior to the start of folks recognizing we were in drought. It goes as quickly as it arrives and certainly will need continued moisture.

      Same applies to CA where everyone seems to have declared drought over even though the most significant precip was in the area that was least affected by the drought this time around. And it may be over but, as you said, TK, it isn’t over just because all of a sudden we have full rivers or they have full reservoirs. There is ground water also to consider.

      And that is just Vicki’s unschooled opinion 🙂

  17. A few thoughts about the just transpired Friday / Saturday weather event.

    I have seen plenty of mentions of bust or in some cases Mets and “public weather enthusiasts” trying to justify their forecasts.

    Technology did some people in here. The availability of model snow maps both to the general public and mets diminish forecaster confidence and public understanding of the forecast. We have been writing here that these maps are useless in the springtime. It plants a what if seed in some forecasters head and enough of these products get out to the public that of course they are going to remember the higher numbers they saw.

    Bias did some people in. Many mets and weather enthusiasts are snow enthusiasts. They are going to want to see a snowier outcome. It happens, we all have them. I have my forecast biases too. Particularly in looking for extreme low temps in the winter and highs in the summer. Also I tend to hold on to persistence of prior pattern too long not recognizing on going change or anomalous event within the pattern.

    Finally there is the resistance in some to believe winter weather happens in the spring in the Northeast so maybe these events gets driven hard to prove a point? At the same time there is a lack of understanding among many that the impact of spring winter weather is often marginalized by melting on roadways, etc.

    So this little event – 48 hours prior I noted that this event was going to be loaded with liquid but a mid level e to ese to s flow would be warming the the 800 level to about 925 and the snow growth region was lower at 500-600 or so, meaning sleet was coming and combine with BL issues, early april sun angle, and an east wind at coast, snow accumulations was going to be tough at the coast. Above 1000 feet a different story. Areas North and east of Orange / Fitchburg / Lowell also were going to primed for moderate accumulations. Otherwise a light Coating-3″ type event was going to be in order for most of SNE.

    The real breakdown came on Friday when surface temps were running 5-7 degrees above modeling and rain / sleet mix was ealier further north than most guidance, Much of the snow accumulation that was now being relied upon was back lash daytime snow on Saturday, where time of year / sun angle issues / surface temps were going to negate the impact of much the snow falling and visible in the daytime. Accumulation maps particularly with the NWS should have been lowered. There discussions were recognizing all these issues but their public maps were not.

    My thoughts only.

    2. Outstanding discussion and thank you for sharing. You nailed each issue.

      Although I was well aware of that warmer layer, I didn’t think it would come
      so far North and so fast. I “should” have realized that the High to our
      North was not strong enough or Cold enough to thwart the onslaught of
      the warmer layer. Even with deep cold in Winter, sometimes those damn warm layers still come farther North and faster. Very piss-poor on my part.
      Valuable lesson learned, I hope. 😀

      In any case, the 3 of you here did very very well dissecting this event.

      And I must say Eric Fisher absolutely nailed it even as I kept saying
      his numbers were too low.

      I hereby anoint Eric Fisher as the BEST on air met there is. 😀 😀 😀
      I know I am biased, but hey, he is very good. BUT I would take any of our 3 here over him.

      2. The strength of the high to the north would not have much much of a difference this time around. At this time of year, to get big snows here you need a closed low overhead with plenty of cold air aloft. We did not have that this time around. Even a big high at the surface would not have prevented the warm air from moving in aloft. If you look back at all of our late-season snowstorms, that is the one thing that they all have in common.

        Another thing to keep in mind – none of the models actually forecast snow amounts. They forecast QPF and precipitation type. Most sites take those variables and create a map using a 10:1 ratio because that is the most common ratio, but that does not mean that particular model is forecasting that much snow. Even the Kuchera maps are subjective and not something directly from the model.

        1. Well stated. We here at WHW are fast becoming the most well informed weather citizens thanks to all of you.

          Many thanks

  18. Thanks TK
    C and A for trivia.
    BDL is up to 62.3 inches of snow for the season. I was way off the mark this year for BDL.

  19. Speaking of Eric, he created a graphic that was posted here recently concerning the long term drought. I can’t find it in the archives or on the WBZ blog.

    Can someone repost that graphic or direct me to the day it was posted?
    It was rainfall stats over the last five years. I do remember that we are about -29″ behind in rainfall since 2011.

    I would appreciate it if someone can help and repost.

    Thanks!

        2. Got son one of those chips to go on his keys a year ago. We found them in the house when he was at work in Boston. Great little gadget. Now if I could only attach one to my glasses!

    2. Arghhhh – sorry to hear that, Tom. We really do need weather that will get everyone OUT. Feel better!!

  21. Updated WHW family and location list – thank you, JPD, for the correction on SAK.

    Lesson to the wise. Vicki is very literal, in a round about sort of way. This time it failed me. Daughter participated in two horse shows in Brockton years ago. She was champion in her division both shows. I should have immediately gone to that.

    http://i.imgur.com/vLpQWSC.png

    1. Arghhhhh…sorry about that. I was jotting names on the back of a recipe. I’m betting I have it mixed with someone else. Sorry… 🙁

    1. I am Chichester nh. I post just east of concord. Because nobody knows where chichester is lol

      1. I know where Chichester is. As I recall we drove toward it when going to Loudin. Do you want me to change to Chichester? I’d be happy to. And then people will know more about it

        1. If you want to sure. I work in clinton mass to. So i have two location i post snow fall depths for

          1. I would be happy to. If you post from Clinton, maybe mention that?? We have friends in Clinton …very nice area

  24. Thank you, TK.

    Thanks for doing the WHW list, Vicki.

    I put away my red and black shovel. I get a little melancholy putting away holiday things in January, and the same happens to me in April when the trusted shovel goes to storage. Of course, it could still snow this month or even next, but I’m not counting on it. So long, winter. You provided us with some fun at times, but lots of oscillations. Hopefully the winter of 2017-2018 will be more front-ended and consistent.

    Speaking of spring, I put away most of my woolen items early this morning and replaced them with spring and summer clothing.

    1. I don’t usually put away my winter clothes until after Marathon Monday. As you know Boston can still be quite chilly with our “infamous” sea breeze. 😉

      1. Agreed. I put away “most” of my winter items, but not all. I’ll still be wearing a winter coat on the cold days.

  25. Well my morning sky forecast was a big swing and miss. I’m sure nobody’s really complaining. 😉

    1. No, not complaining. Every slugger swings and misses sometimes.

      Beautiful sky on my long morning run. The Charles river looked nice. Saw a loon (I believe it was a loon) catch and gulp a fish. Also happened to run parallel to several hundred people participating in the first charity walk of the year – an MS fund-raising event. I’ve biked for the MS group quite a number of times. The trees, vegetation, and plant life still look dormant and winter-like, but I’m sure that will change by the end of the month.

  26. Thanks for the post TK. I know your post mentions snow once but I still think we’re in the clear as far as snow goes. Unless some big volcano erupts and changes the weather patterns. 😉

    1. Even a volcanic eruption would take a while to have a big impact. 😉

      Pinatubo … THAT had a big impact.

  27. What did I miss, TK? I thought you said partly cloudy to mostly sunny for today? Don’t know what you see in Woburn but that’s what I have. Although, judging by my inaccuracies on the list, I may not be reading correctly 🙂 😉

    1. I had to edit the forecast. It was originally mostly cloudy to partly sunny. But 1/2 hour after I posted it, it was evident that was not going to happen.

  31. So Tk I’m having a surprise 13th here on Saturday with about 30 people coming at this time are we looking wet . That wouldn’t be good .

    1. Early call is scattered showers of rain/mix/snow. Don’t think it’s a solid precip event at this point. But, it’s day 6, so check back on that.

  32. 12z GFS still interesting mid month with that big trough moving through the eastern US. It may not be us but someone in the eastern US is going to end up with a late season snowfall out of this.

    1. Early guess would be central to northern NE as well as the Adirondacks. Heck, I was in the Adirondacks in 2004 in July and it got to the mid 30s almost every night we were there (with some mixed precipitation at times, and we were camping. Granted, this was in the higher elevations.

  33. TK, Vicki’s right. I looked at your forecast. It’s pretty darn close. You didn’t swing and miss. You checked your swing on a tough pitch at the knees down and away.

      1. Will the Sox pitching staff be as perfect? They have a lot of issues from what I have been hearing on talk radio lately.

    1. Here’s a caveat: Breaking the current pattern does not necessarily mean we go to a temperature pattern that is above normal.

  36. Bogastow Brook, Millis

    I have fished there many many times. 😀
    Right there and father down stream as well where the water is slower.

  37. It only took 13 days post vernal equinox, but I think we have our first taste of spring weather. 🙂 🙂

    1. Agreed. Thursday was nice, too.

      Nice photograph, JPD.

      Philip, the Sox have several issues, including a questionable bullpen, several injured starters, and an offense that’s been accustomed to the greatest clutch performer of all time but will no longer have his services. I think they’ll be in the mix. I absolutely love their outfield. Though obviously different from Rice, Lynn, and Evans, Benentendi, Bradley, and Betts could be equally potent in terms of offense and defense.

  40. Since it is late in the day and SAK kind of spilled the beans on the quiz, some thoughts about the 2nd one.

    the Big Xenia, OH tornado was 1974, not 1977, so I am wondering IF the year
    was meant to be 1974. If it truly was meant to be 1977 then
    this is what was said about a Tupelo, Mississppi Tornado in 1977:

    The latest in a powerful series of deadly storms, the Tupelo tornado, struck on Monday night and killed one person. The tornado is part of a system that the National Weather Service (NWS) is calling a “severe weather outbreak.” NWS said the weather is expected to continue through Monday night in parts of Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi.

    So OThe latest in a powerful series of deadly storms, the Tupelo tornado, struck on Monday night and killed one person. The tornado is part of a system that the National Weather Service (NWS) is calling a “severe weather outbreak.” NWS said the weather is expected to continue through Monday night in parts of Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi.

    So, I dunno. Many of these quizes come from AcuWeather and they are almost as messed up as the Weather channel, but not as much. That question would have made
    far more sense IF it were for 1974. 😀

    1. I remember a massive tornado in Alabama in 1977. Guy I was dating at time had family in the area. It was what prompted my answer.

  42. Surprisingly, as I sit outside, the lawn is dry with the exception of a small area that is a bit squishy. Other than a small patch of snow left from a fort kids made, all is gone

  43. Answers to quizzes.

    1) In April, Boston’s average high temperature starts at51 degrees and ends at _____.

    A. 51
    B. 56
    C. 61
    D. 66

    2) Name the hardest hit area during the second worst-ever US tornado outbreak of 1977.

    A. Xenia, OH
    B. Louisville, KY
    C. Tanner, AL
    D. Tupelo, MS

    The answer to # 1 is C. I made a mistake in # 2 … it should have read 1974. The answer is A.

    1. Thank you as always,,Lomgshot. Right or wrong (and mostly I am wrong) these are great fun. And I’ll consider my answer correct to the second since there was a major tornado in Alabama in 1977 so your mistake gave me a not very typical correct answer. It is a win win 🙂

    1. I bid $50 on wbz

      And thank you, sir

      Nice to have someone to talk to other than me, myself and I. I’m about to give in to JPD and let him have the win…….don’t tell anyone, but that is how you get ahead with me when it comes to these tricky situations…..you just don’t resond and I give in. 😉

  45. Wrote up my weekly outlook a little early this evening. Normally I write it around 1-2am and then go to bed since during the week I don’t get home from work until 3:30-4am, and like to stay on my schedule, which includes sleeping until 11am-Noon. However, I can’t sleep until 11am-Noon on Monday, since I’ll be in the RF grandstand for Opening Day!

    So without further delay, here’s my Weekly Outlook: https://stormhqblog.wordpress.com/2017/04/02/weekly-outlook-april-3-9-2017/

  47. Mid next week, at least on the 00z op runs … looks like mild to warm air wants to make a run at New England.

    I’m sure as we get closer, somehow it will get cut off at the pass by a small SE Canada bubble of high pressure, featuring a back door cold front.

Comments are closed.