Thursday Forecast

55 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 20-24)
No significant changes. Clouds will be dominant overall, wet weather will be focused mainly Friday but will watch again later in the period depending on how close another low pressure area to the south is. Not convinced yet that it stays far enough south for a complete miss.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 48-55 coast, 55-62 interior. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NE.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Rain arrives toward dawn from west to east. Lows 42-50. Wind light NE.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain/drizzle. Highs 45-53. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of drizzle early. Lows 38-48. Highs 48-60, coolest coast.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Lows 38-48. Highs 48-60, coolest coast.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain favoring southern areas. Lows 38-45. Highs 45-55.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 25-29)
Watching low pressure area to the south which may bring additional wet weather early in the period then a drier trend should follow. Temperatures near to below normal but may warm to above normal later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 30-MAY 4)
Overall mainly dry but may see ocean moisture fairly dominant. Temperatures near to above normal early period may then trend cooler.

55 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. It’s pouring in Washington as I suspect that’s the same system coming here tomorrow.

  8. Thanks TK !

    2 nice weather days on the Cape, with enough sun to keep everyone happy. It’s milder this morning and the wind has calmed down.

    1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      We’re having the kids swim in the pool now with the idea the remaining fog will lift and maybe the sun can burn through the low clouds a bit and saving our outdoor activities for the afternoon.

      1. Smart man. Sun did break through here but behind thinning overcast. Of course house is being power washed so I am looking through wet windows 🙂

        Hope you are having a perfect vacation, Tom!

  11. any idea on how this summer is shaping up in terms of precipitation and Temperature. I know its far out, been too busy to really look. It looks like May could average out around normal

  12. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Sun has peeked out here and there, but still about 95% clouds.

    Temperature has responded and is up to 57.7 here.

    2. Absolutely fascinating. GREAT pictures along with the explanation. It took my old mind a while to recall that Mac’s dad told me about this years ago. They would see instances on occasion when sailing while in Italy.

      I have to say that when I first read your top comment, I thought it was something like fruckta (how is that spelled). So had to laugh when I realized what it was!

        1. Actually, I have been spelling it wrong all of the time.
          I 1st heard this from Eddie Andleman on the radio long ago. It is a Yiddish word or derivative.

          The original Yiddish is: farkatk(e)
          The current spelling is generally accepted as: facacta.
          Meaning: lousy, ridiculous as in that’s a facacta idea.

          So even IF I spelled it incorrectly, I surely used the word properly. 😀 😀 😀

    1. Thank you, JJ. Capital Weather Gang is great. Very interesting article. Ties in to the work I’ll be doing this summer.

  16. People here need to remember that the immediate city of Boston can have a radically different temperature profile this time of year compared to even just a few miles inland. Water temps are still in the 40s (47F currently)!! Monday was the last time I felt true late spring/early summer warmth. I wear whatever makes me comfortable, not just what the calendar says.

    1. Ooops, Philip. I was not laughing at you. I was laughing at your announcement. I am back to long sleeved tops and socks. And absolutely there are differences once inland. After all, we constantly see “cooler at coast” on forecasts 🙂

  17. Thanks TK. Typical April weather. A long way off, but I’m very interested in next weekend. There’s going to be some serious warmth building in the East. Question is, providing the modeled pattern doesn’t change much, is do we get into that warmth, or does the ocean do us in? Could be a fine line between 50s and near 90.

  18. Tropics: Longshot posted the updated path of our tropical depression; note, tropical depression, not subtropical anymore, so NHC believes it has a deep, symmetric warm core with organized convection near the center. That’s perhaps up for debate, but whatever it is, I doubt it’s only at tropical depression intensity anymore. It’s stronger. Take a look at the expansion of convection wrapping around a sort of “eye-like” feature in the past several hours. It will run out of gas and lose any tropical characteristics very soon as it moves over increasingly cool waters. If it can hold this organization for a few more hours, however, we may see “Arlene” at 5PM.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

  19. One more early afternoon post from me. Some of you have probably heard about this, but a major piece of legislation, the “Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017” became law earlier this week upon the signature of President Trump. There’s a lot of good stuff in this bill which will hopefully help keep the US at the forefront of improvements in meteorology. It’s good to see that while there are big differences on climate science (and plenty of other issues), advancement of weather forecasting remains an issue of strong bi-partisan support in our government.

    https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/353/text

    1. Thanks Jimmy! As long as the seabreeze stays away. I will welcome it around mid-summer though. 🙂

      1. We’ll have sea breezes. They are a natural process and it’s good that we get them.

  21. If it is going to be as warm as forecasted I wonder if will have more thunderstorm days this coming summer. The past couple summers the thunderstorm activity has been isolated in nature.

    1. Since I don’t like thunderstorms, it will be fine with me if that trend continues. 😉

  22. Summer ideas remain the same for me:
    Above normal temps. Above normal precip. Above normal thunderstorm activity. Dissipation and possible eradication of drought (though that may take until late 2017 or 2018 to completely happen provided things go as I think they may).

    1. But but but….SAK said something about El Niño or Nina and summer perhaps being like two years (or was it three) ago. This very specific information brought to you by a confused individual

  23. This has been a great baseball game to listen to or watch today. 3 outs away from an extra innings victory for the Red Sox.

  24. In the way out there GFS juiced up with instability for western parts of CT and MA next Friday.

  26. Chris Sale… 4 starts, 1 win, ERA under 1.00. Talk about a hard-luck ace. Not quite sure what to make of the Sox yet this year. Over-hyped for sure, but that’s mainly because the hype was set so high. I think they’re pretty good, but too early to say how good.

    We did indeed get Arlene at 5PM. It’s a very tricky case. The forecast discussion noted explicitly that this kind of storm would not be identified pre-satellite era. That’s no secret. Plus, there’s the whole question of “is it really tropical?”, which I think at least today it has been for awhile. Personally, I think they’ve handled it correctly. I’ve come to the conclusion that the overall hurricane record pre-satellite and even in the earlier satellite years is irreversibly tainted by storms we find now that we missed then. I see no reason to ignore a storm we know is out there just because we wouldn’t have seen it X number of years ago. I just hope we see increased consistency of classification in the years to come, so that we can build a truly representative database of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.

      1. Nope! There’s no correlation between a storm like this and the real hurricane season, which won’t begin in earnest for a couple months. Expectations are for probably near or below normal activity this year mainly due to sea surface temperature patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific. Here’s Colorado State’s take on it, historically one of the best agencies in seasonal hurricane prediction.

        http://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/04/2017-04.pdf

      1. Crazy right? But channel 4 has been in the early charges of calling for high temps it seems and theyve been right thus far I think. It would be interesting to go back and compare historical forecasting data to see which stations do best a week out.

    2. Channel 5 has next Thursday pegged at 64. Channel 4 has it pegged at 78. Quite the difference.

  28. Deck sitting. Blue skies to east. Thicker clouds to west. Not bad at All with just a sweatshirt and slacks.

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