Saturday Forecast

31 Comments

10:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 29-MAY 3)
As April turns to May, we have a bit of a tricky forecast situation coming. But first, a weekend that will be fairly decent, though will exhibit 2 distinctive feels. Today, a taste of summer. A cold front will come through later and may trigger a shower near the South Coast but otherwise its main impact will be to bring much cooler weather for Sunday. This front will then attempt to come back north as a warm front Monday, but probably won’t fully get through here until Tuesday. So Monday’s forecast is a little tricky. There should be a lot of clouds and some wet weather, and for now I will lean to the cooler side with the front taking its time. The warmer weather should be back by Tuesday, only to be pushed out once again Wednesday as a slightly cooler airmass comes down from Canada.
TODAY: Partly sunny. An isolated shower possible South Coast. Highs 65-73 South Coast, 74-83 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-57 coast, 57-62 interior. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Chance of light rain after midnight. Lows 44-51. Wind light E.
MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Highs 52-57 coast, 57-62 interior. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to middle 70s, coolest South Coast.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs from the upper 50s to middle 60s, coolest East Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 4-8)
Watching for a possible significant rain event somewhere early to mid period and a persistent upper low that would keep the weather unsettled through the period. Much fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 9-13)
Exit of upper low should be folloed by somewhat milder and drier weather, but low confidence forecast at this time.

31 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  5. Thanks TK
    Tom I was looking at that thunderstorm complex on radar earlier. Lot of lightning with that complex.

  6. Monday is tricky. That’s an understatement. The NAM and GFS are 15-25 degrees apart. The NAM doesn’t bring the warm front through until Tuesday morning, and keeps temps Monday into the middle 40s to middle 50s. The GFS has the front come through Monday morning, and has temps in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

    The 3km WRF has temps mainly in the 50s, the Canadian is similar to the GFS with temps in the middle 60s to lower 70s, and last night’s ECMWF was similar to the GFS as well with temps in the middle 60s to middle 70s.

    On my forecasts that I wrote early this morning, I mentioned the uncertainty of the the warm front timing, and basically split the difference, going a little warmer than TK did, with mostly lower to middle 60s around here. I figure the guys on shift this weekend had 2 days to revise it as newer data came in that leaned one way or the other.

  8. GFS seems to split next week’s southeast system in 2, with a bout of rain Friday, but a northern stream disturbance then squashing the remaining piece south and east of us.

    I wonder if the 12z EURO will agree ??

      1. Yes, Southern system spins around down South and dies and never makes it up here.

        Both the GFS and Euro have done a huge back off on this system.
        Even so, still delivers 1-1 1/4 inches of Rain on Friday. We can handle that. Beats the crap out of a 3 day rain event.

        1. Indeed. Let’s hope this trend continues. Good amount of rain Friday, followed by a decent weekend.

  9. Thank you, TK. Skiing at Sugarloaf. The streams are full up here and the water is rushing downhill with almost deafening sound when it is near. Gorgeous day.

    1. Awesome. Skied there once way back in the late 60s. It was very windy and we got stuck on the gondola for about an hour. They finally got us to the top and that was the last run of that lift. We were relegated to the T-bars. Beautiful mountain. ENJOY!

    2. Very fun, MassBay!

      A person I am working with in NH – not far from VT border – loves to fish. Like you, he said streams are rushing and far too full for any fishing. He is thinking of heading down to MA around Quabbin.

  10. Thanks TK! Heading over to the Vineyard for work on Monday and Wednesday and was hoping for choppy seas. :-). Easy for someone who doesn’t sea sick to say.

  11. Does anyone have info on the potential gypsy moth/winter moth caterpillars this spring? I haven’t seen a single one yet and would love a break from it.

    1. Ace:

      I am definitely NOT your authority on this, but my crabapple looks fantastic with fresh blossoms. I have sprayed twice with Spinosad since the middle of April. There are a few nibbles on the leaves, but not nearly as bad as last year or other years. I don’t know if it’s the Spinosad or the lack of winter moth caterpillars.

      I thought I read somewhere that this might be tough year for gypsy moth caterpillar again, but I am not sure where I read it. That starts middle of May????

      Hope this helps.

    2. I also believe I read they are moving more and more north from RI. We had only one tree last year but wrapping the tin foil with the duct tape backwards stopped them. But it is a small tree

  12. Definitely not an easy time to be a forecaster in SNE. Monday is a temperature forecasting nightmare, basically the NAM versus all the other guidance. Could be looking at struggling to break 50 (per the NAM) or soaring well into the 70s. I’m starting to think the NAM’s colder solution may win out, at least for most of the day, with a late day temperature spike possible.

    Then there’s the end of next week. Models have been all over the place, but I continue to see the possibility for a significant, long-duration rain event, along with, as TK has in his forecast, the potential for an upper low to get hung up somewhere in the East.

    1. Of course today the ECMWF has become inconsistent.
      For May 9, the 00z run at the upper low centered over PA.
      Now, for the same date, the 12z run has it centered over FL.

      Just a TAD different.

  13. Well folks, this is it. Looks like we’re all gonna die. An “superstorm covering half the country” has “rapidly” formed!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fDHIm4XeWA

    Seriously, how does this type of video get attention? Is the general knowledge of weather basics in the US that low? Given that infrared picture any 7th grader could tell you it’s just a low pressure system!

    1. The video, once you actually watch it, isn’t even too bad beyond causing too much hype. But the comments have gone completely insane!

      1. Maybe it’s the hype in the video that causes all those weird and logic deficient comments.

    2. Dear heavens. Who is talking? He doesn’t seem to know anything. And why is there a noaa logo? The comments are pure comedy

      1. Reminds me of the headlines on the “World Weekly News” that used to be at the checkout of the grocery store.

        Based on that video, I guess I shouldn’t sweat the winter moth caterpillars on the crabapple tree.

        1. That was the “Weekly World News”. I remember that paper well. My aunt read it all the time. 🙂

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