Tuesday Forecast

80 Comments

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 2-6)
A “cold front” pushes through today. I put it in quotes because even though it is a cold front by text book definition, it will actually warm up behind it as it is pushing out a warm airmass that was sitting above cooler marine air trapped at the ground in a lot of the region, though some areas south and west of Boston did get to experience the warmer air before the front arrived. A cool pool in the upper atmosphere will drift across the region Wednesday and will at the very least develop some diurnal cloudiness, and perhaps some showers. High pressure will move in providing a gem of a day on Thursday, though sunshine may fade later in the day as high cloudiness moves in ahead of a broad low pressure area. Though the timing of this system is still a little uncertain, it will arrive with wet weather sometime Friday. Its broad associated upper level low will park itself west of New England by Saturday, which will be another unsettled day.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy through early afternoon with areas of drizzle/fog and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy later in the day with isolated showers. Highs 66-75, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated showers. Highs 58-66. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny start, then increasing clouds. Lows 45-53. Highs 60-68.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Lows 45-53. Highs 53-60.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Showers likely. Lows 45-53. Highs 58-66.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 7-11)
Unsettled weather dominates. Frequent periods of showers or rain. Temperatures start the period near normal then cool to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 12-16)
A little drier and milder weather develops during this period.

80 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Warm frontal passage …..

    7:10 am : 50F , wind calm
    7:35 am : 61F , southerly breeze

  2. Thank you

    46 its light east wind

    Poured in night. .58 rain. Heard distant thunder around 1:30 and 4:00ish. Not sure how close it got. Amazing how when you try to stay awake, you can’t. But when you want to sleep, you can’t either

  5. Thanks Tk . I have a big job in Plymouth to do Saturday eta around 10:30 do you think I can get this done in dry conditions.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK. Your forecast looks like typical shity Spring
    weather around these parts. Nothing out of the ordinary. Just typical Crap.

    Getting brighter here. Looking like front is about to pass through.

      1. Yes, indeed. It happens almost every Spring sometime
        in the April to June time frame. We just never know when it will strike and sometimes it strikes more than once.

        I HATE IT!(@#&!*@#&*!@&#^*!&@%^#*&!%^@&#^!&

      1. And if neither of those work, anyone who likes is welcome to take my place in the oral surgeons chair today 😉 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. Great little tune and lyrics, but sorry for reasons I won’t get into on this blog
      I am Worried, worried very much indeed.

  8. Hmmm|

    At 9AM still 50 at the airport with a North wind.
    Meanwhile at Blue Hill some 10-12 miles to the South, the wind is
    SOUTH gusting to 22 with temp of 57. I believe great blue has an elevation
    of 635 feet, depending on the source.

  9. Nasty looking cut off low next week and huge blocking. Wouldn’t be surprised to see snow in parts of NH VT and Maine with that set up.

      1. Looks like it starts a bit earlier than that.
        I do not like the looks of things coming up. Not at all.

            1. Nor do I but TK didn’t rule it out. My sense because it is not too late for snow rather than what he sees (or doesn’t see). I am speaking for TK but didn’t want to leave it at the fact he didn’t rule it out without some sort of followup.

              I am truly mixed on my feelings about it. So many trees, etc would be destroyed or seriously harmed. But it would be exciting because of the obvious reasons to those who love weather. Either way, the outcome is in nature’s hands.

              1. There may be enough cold air aloft and surface for mix or flakes somewhere in SNE not long from now. Think 5-18-2002.

                5. Interesting that both events occurred 9 days and 25 years apart…if my math is correct.

  10. Yesterday I was waiting for the “six o’clock jump”. Hopefully it arrives sometime today.

    24 hours late.

    1. Thank you, Captain. I am still numb from novacain and motrined up so,hopefully it won’t be bad when everything wears off. I’m having an ice cream sundae for dinner. Doesn’t get better than that.

      And I loved listening to Benny goodman. I have always enjoyed the bing band era music

  13. What horrific model runs for next week. Upper level low parked over the region with cold air and surface lows pin wheeling around/over us for 7 days. Waves of rain/showers and higher elevation wet snow.

    Look at the projected NAO for next week:

    https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/859447656954966017/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fantmasiello%2Fstatus%2F859447656954966017

    That’s record negative levels for May. Big time blocking and no where for the low to go.

    2. That’s ok ……. meanwhile, to the north in most of Canada, during that time, it will be mild and sunny, with significant snow and ice melt. So, once the atmosphere starts moving again in late May, the cold source region will be greatly muted and everyone will be asking what happened, when we go from 2 weeks of 48F straight to 90F and sunny with zero transition in between. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. I like the optimism and you may be right but see my post below with the long range Euro EPS projection. Perhaps the couple of 80 degree days we had in April were nothing but a tease!

  14. 12z GFS Northeast snow totals through 240 hours:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017050212&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

    Wouldn’t take much for more of the accumulating snow to shift further east into New England if the trough sets up further east. I think it’s a good bet for mountain snows in northern NY/VT/NH/ME regardless.

    Killington is still open on weekends, running the Superstar lift and 8 trails. Their goal is to make it to Memorial Day. They’ve got a shot in this pattern.

    1. Indeed they do. We shall see.

      This pattern blows chunks. Where was it in February????

      Oh well, we have to play the hand we were dealt. I want to FOLD!

    3. Wow. If it snows up there I may have to get my skis out again. I finally put them away Sunday night.

    1. Hope it verifies. Even though I would like some warmth,
      my wife would be very very very happy with this news. Even when I told
      her that the next 2 weeks were going to be mostly cool, she was thrilled.

      BUT then what this means is what Tom alluded to above…the SWITCH will be turned and we’ll go from the refrigerator to the blast furnace. If it’s going to get hot later, how about easing into it??? Oh, I forgot, we live in New England and it doesn’t work that way.

    2. LOL on a 46 day Euro -0.3 degree departure.
      Products like that are pure garbage, even if they show a +0.3 departure.
      Not even good for entertainment purposes.
      That said, the next 2 weeks make me want to take a toaster bath.

      1. When you average high and low temps out though over a long period of time, departures like that are more significant. It doesn’t mean we are in the icebox for 45 days but implies more cooler than warmer days. Not saying I believe it or not. I agree with Dave though, I would not mind at all if it verified. Too early in the season for a torch. We will get plenty of HHH weather in late June, July and August I’m sure.

        Welcome back by the way!

        1. I’m just not a fan of 46 day stuff like that. I don’t care what it shows. If it showed a +5 departure, which I would love, I still would take it with a 1/4 grain of salt.

  16. Warm front still on a line from Brockton to Worcester. Cold air holding on strong in Eastern Mass. Will it ever move? Who knows?

  17. Hard to believe that areas of Upstate NY where the 12z GFS has accumulating snow were dealing with severe weather yesterday.
    Big time UGH with this pattern in spring. In winter different story if you love snow like I do.

    1. I don’t find it hard to believe at all. This time of year is known for such antics in the Northeast. 🙂

  18. I do buy upper low hanging around.
    I don’t buy it lasting weeks, though it may repeat a time or 2 for several days anywhere from mid May to early June.

  20. Well, now I know how to make warm fronts come through the entire state whenever I want. Come here and complain about the cold! Things brightened up 30 minutes after I made that comment.

      1. That’s ok. The study is probably not without limitations and therefore not very complete.

        I’m sure there is enough variability that we can find cases where clusters produce more, and lines produce more. I hope they at least explained their controls and boundaries for the study. Per square mile? Overall? Neither?

  22. Which pattern will be the most similar?

    A. May 9-10, 1977
    B. May 18, 2002 (nasty cold day)
    C. May 2009
    D. All of the above

      1. All the more reason for observations elsewhere such as Downtown itself or perhaps Back Bay or South End.

        1. I wouldn’t be opposed to an ob site there (like Central Park in NYC), but they also NEED to be at the airport for very obvious reasons often stated by myself, SAK, or other meteorologists on the page.

          1. Agree that they should be at Logan. I don’t think anyone objects to that. I do think they rightfully object to Logan representing Boston. One inland would be a great option

  26. Here’s a question: why is it that people talk about winter weather being difficult to forecast more than a few days out yet by the end of April people seem ready to throw in the towel on all of May and June’s weather on May 2? I have to admit I’ve put my motorcycle away for the next couple weeks based on the forecasts I’ve seen!

  27. Just need a dry Saturday very big job on Saturday & I am getting so much work I can’t fall behind . 9th day in a row without a day off .

        1. Yes of course . Still running this on the weekend Saturday & Sunday if needed . During the week I’m doing estimate like the one tonight in Hingham.

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