Saturday Forecast

44 Comments

8:54AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 6-10)
Upper level low pressure will spin over the northeastern USA for the entirety of this period, but despite some weather apps telling you that we were in for days upon days of rain, we are not. We had some significant rainfall on Friday as the surface system associated with the upper low moved across the region, and now we will see varying weather during this period, caused by a blocking pattern – when weather systems move very little or stay nearly stationary for a period of time. But even when you are in the low pressure region of one of these patterns, you can still get episodes of good weather when areas of drier air move into your region. In this case, the low pressure area being centered a little more to the west this weekend will allow it to be fairly mild, and part of the weekend will feature some sun too. A shift east and southeast of the upper low early next week will result in cooler weather, but still unsettled with several opportunities for showers. To time these opportunities is difficult, so will leave it as a more general idea and fine-tune with each update.
TODAY: Overcast through midday with areas of fog dissipating. Mostly cloudy afternoon with best chance of intervals of sunshine southwest of Boston. Steadiest rain over southeastern MA into mid morning, otherwise episodes of scattered showers and brief downpours possible anywhere, but favoring RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH. Highs 58-63 South Coast, 64-69 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing showers possible. Lows 47-54. Wind S 5-15 MPH
SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny morning through early afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy mid afternoon on. Showers likely over Cape Cod and a few scattered showers mainly west of Boston late in the day. Highs 58-66, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 45-52. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Daily risk of showers. Lows 45-52. Highs 55-62.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 11-15)
Elongation of the upper low early in the period and then another slightly more progressive upper low later in the period will likely keep it on the unsettled side with temperatures near to mostly below normal for this period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 16-20)
Low confidence forecast but looks like a transition to a more progressive pattern may try to get underway meaning weather systems move along and some warmer air will also return.

44 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  7. 1.48″ here in Taunton at the noon hour, I think, as the AccuRite rain gauge suddenly reset to 0.00 at 12 noon.

    Moderate rain all morning.

      1. Mostly sunny skies within the hour is likely dependent upon location, of course.

  12. Thanks TK
    So nice to see the sun out today after being woken up by downpours at 5 this morning.

  14. Tk I had no choice today I had to postpone the Plymouth job till tomorrow, how will we be looking in Plymouth. Sun is shinning bright in pembroke.

  15. Predicted order of finish for Kentucky Derby…

    Thunder Snow
    Classic Empire
    Irish War Cry
    J Boys Echo
    Practical Joke
    Hence
    Gormley
    McCraken
    Gunnevera
    Irap
    Girvin
    Patch
    Tapwrit
    Sonneteer
    Untrapped
    Lookin At Lee
    State Of Honor
    Always Dreaming
    Battle Of Midway
    Fast And Accurate

  16. Now is thundersnow based on what you know about the horses running OR
    because it is a cool weather term. Inquiring minds need to know. 😀

    1. It’s based on the field overall not having a super clear favorite, the post position I feel has a good chance today, and the track performance of this horse when it is on the wet side from current or recent rain. The name helped a little bit. 😉

      1. Fair enough thanks. Do you know much about horse racing?
        I know very little, although I did hit a trifecta about 6 years ago and it was on derby day and it was one of the races on the card
        that day. 😀

        1. I know a little but not enough to be considered well versed. 😉

  17. Well that did not work out at all…
    Thunder Snow is ok. Just got spooked.

  18. My horse won but I had a sense…not explainable…that he would. Although I had to solit my winnings with 3 and 5 yr old grands. Actually, I divide my portion anyway

    Like the others, Thundersnow is young. All it takes is a funny step in a messy field to set a young horse off. He reminded me of my daughters last horse. Unpredictable. But the heart of a champion.

    Dylan D of course was rooting for him 🙂

    1. And as we left daughters house there was a beautiful full rainbow with a hint of a double

    1. It was perfect timing too. Nighttime rain, dry air came in behind it, as expected, with most of this morning and midday rain-free with a fair amount of sun, also expected (by real forecasters, not weather apps). 😉

  20. Awesome sky tonight with moon peeking out from behind the clouds.

    A fellow Sutton-ite who takes absolutely amazing pictures around town and elsewhere (I have about 10 of her pictures displayed along with other items) and I person I feel as if I can call friend made an interesting comment today. She is on the coast of Maine. She shared a lovely photo of the coast in the fog.

    Her comment…..”There is something special about fog. I notice details that I do not see in the bright sun.”

    I have never heard it said better and as simply and truly think it applies to all kinds of weather. It is no wonder that she captures the beauty of nature as well as she does 🙂

  21. I continue to see posts all over social media about it having rained “all of this week” and how it’s going to rain “all of next week”. Has society become that collectively numb to reality?

    1) It did not rain all of last week.
    2) It is not going to rain all of next week.
    3) The pattern we are in is NORMAL. N-O-R-M-A-L for spring. Say it: NORMAL!

    Since when did everyone become so emotional unstable about WEATHER for goodness sakes!

    I get it. It was cold in March. Well guess what? We’re in the 50s and 60s consistently. Ooooo it dips to the 40s once in a while and be still my beating heart if it ever gets to the upper 30s some morning in May! We even have had a good amount of days 70+, even a few 80+ already. A very good spring pattern this year, an end to the drought essentially regionwide (as predicted, by the way, thank you very much). What gives? Time to learn how to deal with reality folks! 😀

    1. Their “reality” is simply different. I see it every day. Some huge percentage of the customers I see daily in a retail setting in a very affluent suburb cannot look up from their phones long enough to even mumble an order to a counter person. You are right, on social media this is locally the “worst spring ever,” “going to rain for two straight weeks,” “Mother’s Day a guaranteed wash out” etc etc. Reality is what is on the little screen they almost never look away from. That reality dramatically effects actual behavior. I saw an online weather forecast the other day featuring a screen shot of a wet road to apparently dramatically underscore the fact of heavy rain as if that was some never before experienced phenomena requiring multiple twitter hashtags and Facebook posts. It really is bizarre……

    2. Well said. I just don’t understand. It was the same for week before last. Maybe it is a form of mass hypnotism??

    3. TK, you did predict the end of the drought right around now and I think it was at least early last su,men if not longer ago when you did that. You have an amazing ability to forecast weather :).

      1. I forget when I first said it. Maybe sometime in 2015.

        The target month/year was May 2017 and it was not a wild guess. There was reasoning behind it that I know I explained somewhere along the line.

  22. There will be a bit of a delay on this morning’s update… (Approximately 10AM)

    1. A lot of our lower dew points come from the southwest when we’re in a stacked low situation, which we are. The dry air originated in Canada and the north central US. It’s just circulating around the low. It didn’t come from the Deep South.

  24. On this account for a bit. Power outage knocked out a server but we’ll be up soon and then I can update the blog.

  25. ML there was a typo in the name on the post which caused it to go into moderation. I could not fix it until this account was up, which it is, so it’s all set.

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