Thursday Forecast

63 Comments

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)
Upper level low pressure departs through Friday and another one moves into the northeastern US from west to east this weekend through Monday. This keeps the unsettled weather pattern going, first with mainly just cloudiness dominating. The arrival of the next low will kick off a surface storm that is expected to bring some significant rain by Saturday night into Sunday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs 50-55 coast, 55-60 interior. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows 42-47. Wind light NE.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs 50-55 coast, 55-60 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 42-47. Wind light NE.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops afternoon and continues at night. Highs 48-53 coast, 53-58 interior. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy, tapering to lighter rain/drizzle. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief mix possible higher elevations early otherwise isolated showers. Lows from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)
A pattern flip to a high pressure ridge dominating the eastern US means overall drier with a warming trend, though we’ll have to watch for high pressure to the north pushing a boundary southward and making at least coastal areas cooler at some point mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)
Pattern will likely favor a nearby boundary and this opens the door for frequent passing disturbances bringing episodes of wet weather, as well as temperatures ups/downs.

63 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    2. GREAT song. I started singing it even before I opened your link. Perfect song for the start of Thursday!

  3. Thanks, TK.

    Looks so beautiful out this morning! Sun is bright; blue skies; a bit chilly out. But I guess the clouds move in again. Good and bad with coming rain this wknd. Helps the drought but ruins Mothers’ Day. Oh, well.

  4. I echo the above sentiments about it being a beautiful morning.

    Really nice. Now how long will it last?

    1. Clouds already sneaking in from west here in Sudbury. Sun is already fading a bit. 🙁

  10. Tk. I have a clean up / mulching job in marshfield this Saturday your best guess am I good to go it’s not till early evening for the rain arrival I think. I need to confirm with the customer this afternoon . Thank you .

    1. Morning should be dry. Chances of dryness decrease steadily after noon. Rain may hold back but no guarantee.

      1. Ugh . I though I had dryness all day . Ok now I have a decision to make as she would need mulch delivered tomorrow.

  11. I’m going to tell her let’s schedule the delivery I’m thinking 4 hr job I’ll get there at 8am

  12. 12Z GFS wants to unload and deliver 3-4 inches of rain across Eastern Sections.
    Basically about DOUBLE the NAM.

    2. Recent storm, where the flood watch was posted, underperformed, when the shield of rain in eastern Mass was a bit more progressive than modeled. Wonder if that may happen again ?

      1. Rather large discrepancy between the NAM and GFS.
        One or both have it wrong.

        I suspect the Euro will be in the middle. Who knows.

  13. 90F next Thursday or Friday …. or somewhere in there ? 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    With very little transition from the 50s.

    1. I wont complain! I’ll take some all day sun and 65 -70 at this point. If its 90, all the better.

  14. Here comes the daily noon time destructive sunshine and the good old 10 am high temp.
    Hopefully this shyte breaks by Tuesday-Wednesday. 12:15 pm on May 11th and it’s 51 degrees. YUCK!
    I really don’t care about the rain, bring it, but these temps are unacceptable. Yea, I know it happens, but I and most everyone else I know don’t like it much either.

  16. Daughter said that two years ago mother’s day they went to humarock and kids were playing in the ocean. It is new england.

    From comments here and elsewhere, my best guess is that an awful lot of people are unhappy a good portion of the year because of weather. I don’t understand being unhappy, but then each person needs to do what feels right to him or her.

    1. The weather makes me miserable in the Spring. Most other times, I’m good with it. Even though today is “relatively” nice, the wind is from the NE and the air
      has a really cold bite to it. Not comfortable for May. Car was reading 53

      2. Ah ha…I think I am beginning to understand. If you tell me it would be comfortable in the fall, then I will truly understand. I’m suspecting, but not positive, that at least for you it is what you expect at a specific time of year that you do not like and not necessarily the actual temperatures/weather.

        1. Well, it’s all relative, so in part yes, it is a matter of what
          I expect. But honestly, I KNOW what Spring brings to this area.

          I think Boston’s average high is “about” 64 or 65 for
          May 11th. However, that average is made up of days
          ranging from the 40s to the 90s and everything in between, obviously influenced by more readings closer to the average.

          53 in May feels cold. 53 in January is beach weather.
          It is all relative. Bottom line is one feels the way they do no matter what anyone else is telling them. 😀 😀

  17. Ok – that’s it…..I heard snow showers and Mother’s day mentioned in the same sentence. To be fair, it could have been in jest. I’ve decided that snow would be the perfect Mother’s Day present……TK, can you do anything about this 🙂

    1. Rain on mother’s day symbolizes the tears mothers shed for their children.

      Though, some of the region may end up seeing mix or snow at night (especially north and higher elevations).

  18. I feel like spring is always like this. From cool damp weather to hot weather as some models advertise next week. No steady rise in temperatures. Although, Tuesday and Wednesdays looks to be perfect!

    Gfs still showing decent CAPE and Li next thursday. Looking forward to track thunderstorms again. I hope we get a good stormy season

      1. At least you live where you can see some decent storms.
        In the city it is extremely rare to see any thunderstorm
        that is remotely close to severe. Sure they very occasionally happen, but in most cases T-storms in the City are routine.

        I have lived in the city since the end of 1970 and I can count on one hand the number of severe t-storms in Boston. And I have yet to see one single storm that met the Severe criteria of 58 Mph winds. (at least where I was in the City during the storm) We had one in August a few years ago that met the criteria, but not for wind, but rather the severe hail.

        1. Well, living next to an ocean is a factor, and since I hate thunderstorms, that is fine with me. Even one per summer is one too many! 😀

          Btw, I have lived in the city since the end of 1960. 😉

  20. The Euro shows the weekend system staying off shore and very progressive.

    Waiting for more details.

    1. Euro keeps it quite a bit off shore with LESS than an inch of rain.
      Will post qpf map shortly.

  21. Here is the Euro total as of 8PM Monday evening. Note: A portion of the totals
    well to the West and SW come from the upper disturbance moving through and not
    the coastal itself. Eastern MA mostly from coastal alone.

    http://imgur.com/a/tzQoz

    So is the Euro an Outlier? Or is it onto something?

    1. I could see the Northern Stream and Southern Stream
      systems not phasing enough, thus kicking the surface system more to the East.

      The NAM and more so the GFS have a complete phasing of the Upper
      disturbances.

      Which is it going to be?

    1. We had nice bright sun when it was not behind clouds today. Very high angle now, just about 6 weeks from the highest of the year.

      1. Thank you, Sue. Do you head to the vineyard for The Weeknd tomorrow? I hope your family gets to go to???

  25. So it’s 2 against 2 when taking into account the GFS, NAM, GEM, ECMWF. The GFS/NAM are the slower progression, sooner stacking solution, while the GEM/ECMWF are more progressive with stacking occurring after the system has moved further to the east.

    I say either is possible. Easy to say right? Not really. I just can’t find a good reason, meteorologically speaking, to completely dismiss either. Will look again once 18z GFS comes out and then fully later tonight and early tomorrow with the 00z stuff.

  26. Thank you, TK.

    Presidential range in the White Mountains could get over a foot of snow this weekend through Monday. I’d say that above 4000 feet, so from Hermit Lake Shelter to the summit of Mt. Washington, will likely get some heavy snow, ice, and lots of wind. Nothing out of the ordinary, even for mid May, but still worth noting.

    1. Nice and def not out of ordinary. I’ve said here many times that back in my dads day Memorial Day was Massachusetts ski weekend on Mt Washington

        1. They are indeed a threat, Vicki. In fact, with the expected warm-up by the middle of next week there will be lots of melting snow in the Presidential Peaks region.

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