Friday Forecast

54 Comments

7:43AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 12-16)
Upper level low pressure departs today and another one moves into the northeastern US from west to east this weekend through Monday. On Tuesday, a new pattern begins as upper level low pressure is gone and a high pressure ridge takes its place.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Slight chance of showers. Highs 50-55 coast, 55-60 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 42-47. Wind light NE.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain develops late in the day. Highs 48-53 coast, 53-58 interior. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy, tapering to lighter rain/drizzle. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 17-21)
The overall pattern will be dry and warm, though temperatures may cool for a day or 2 mid to late period near the coast.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 22-26)
Pattern will likely favor a nearby boundary and this opens the door for frequent passing disturbances bringing episodes of wet weather, as well as temperatures ups/downs.

54 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  4. RE: the weekend rain

    Now the models appear to more in agreement with a general 1-2 inches of rain.
    That “should” be under flood potential. A nice soaking rain, but not the biblical
    amounts the GFS was depicting yesterday.

      1. If we can cap next weeks high temps at 85 and no more, I’m good with it. I don’t want those temps over achieving and reaching
        into the 90s. There is ample Sun angle and daylight to reach
        those temperatures depending on how warm the air mass is.

        Actually, I’d prefer it stay 75-80 and stay the hell away from the 80s altogether. Save 80s until next month.

        1. It seems to happen almost every year around here. We go from late winter/early spring to mid-summer without any gradual transition.

    1. 12z GFS shows even more. May see another round of flood watches for parts of eastern MA with this event.

        1. That’s 3-5 inches across much of Eastern MA.
          That is a lot of RAIN and could very well pose a flood
          threat. Really curious to see EURO.

          At the very least we’re looking at 1.5 to 2 inches and could
          very well be looking at substantially more. We shall see.

            1. These recent rain events, while more than just a few showers, haven’t panned out to be the big rain producers as advertised. I remain skeptical.

              1. Yup, I understand that, but looking at the synoptic set up, I think it delivers this time.

  7. The EURO is usually the one to over-amplify. GFS? not so much. That’s why I’m taking the GFS solutions on this and throwing them in the trash. I think we see 1 – 1.5″ on average, more east, less west

  8. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

    I think that upper level feature to the north of the western Great Lakes or just west of James Bay …. if you follow it on the 500 mb map, it really interacts with the southern stream feature and briefly captures it just east of us.

    So, the initial band of rain may slow as it is passing through and a wrap around band may be long lasting and somewhat potent. Put all together, I’d hedge towards the heavier amounts.

      1. I sense the EURO doesn’t phase them as quickly, however, as we sit at hour 48, I’m interested to see what the hr 72 panel will bring.

        Will it, like the GFS capture the feature just east of us or further out towards Nova Scotia ?

        This feels like a cold season model battle 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

            1. Makes sense given its projection of how the features interact.

              Well, either scenario is plenty 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

            2. I don’t know what I was looking at.
              I take that back. It’s actually more like
              1.0 to 1.25. A very routine rain event.

              1. I’ll post in a moment. Want another frame or 2. Don’t want to miss a drop. 😀

                1. Actually, it does have some wrap around rain bumping
                  the final totals up a bit. It may end up being the 1.25 to 1.50.

  9. 12Z Euro total Rain through 6Z Tuesday, the complete and total event.

    http://imgur.com/a/ZYQeW

    Decent rain, but no big woof and not much of a flood threat either, which is a good thing.

    I VOTE for the Euro solution. TK, can we please make this happen?

  10. If this was even March, this would be the perfect snowstorm…little if any mixing. Oh well. 🙂

  12. The NAM has been performing better of late in that 24-36 hour time frame going back to those last few wintry threats to close out winter.
    Looking ahead GFS continues to indicate instability for thunderstorm development next Thurs.

  15. You know backlash rain will always materialize unlike backlash snow. Just don’t get it 🙂

    1. They both materialize when the setup is correct. It’s about what’s going on above. We tend to look for back lash snow too much on systems that are progressive. This system is only partially progressive in that it does cut off to the east and do a mini loop likely holding in at least light rain/drizzle. If the same set-up occurred and it was cold enough to snow, we’d have that too.

  16. Well, I can pretty much guarantee a long period of rain. Patio and fire pit (sans the stairs from deck to patio) will be complete tomorrow am. Maybe….just maybe….we can get a fire in before the rain.

        1. A tree falls in Cumberland.

          From the Attleboro Sun-Chronicle:

          The widespread power failure, which began at around 4:15 at the tail end of the work week, started after a tree that was being cut down in Cumberland fell on a transmission line. Among those experiencing power failures were homes and businesses in Attleboro, Rehoboth, Plainville and Seekonk.

          National Grid Spokeswoman Dana Simone said the tree was removed and the transmission line was repaired by 5 p.m. Most customers had their power back on by 6 p.m.

  18. I have to coach a Babe Ruth baseball doubleheader tomorrow. Game 1 at 3; Game 2 at 5:30.
    Can we get both games in?

  19. Thanks, TK.

    I’m in Vermont and will be out the door of my sister’s house bright and early to run a 10k up and down a `mountain’ (more like a large hill). The weather here was gorgeous today: 60F and sunny most of the afternoon. It’s been warmer here than in Boston all week. Surprise, surprise … not. Boston’s one of the coolest cities in the world in springtime; I say this literally and figuratively.

    Been reading the forecasts for the “unusual Mother’s Day nor’easter” and I had to think of TK. What would he say? Well, he’d say there’s nothing unusual about the storm that’s coming this weekend. And, TK would be 100% correct. When the weather stations hype a May rainstorm you know something’s not right. I know. It’s about ratings and grabbing the attention of viewers. But, please spare me the hype.

    1. Means a new post is available, not soon…but NOW.

      Since most of you are asleep, you’ll wake up to it. 😉

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