Sunday Forecast

96 Comments

2:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)
A low pressure area passes southeast of New England today then does a loop to the east of New England Monday before pulling away. Following this, a new pattern gets underway as a high pressure ridge builds along the East Coast, resulting in a major warm-up.
TODAY: Overcast. Rain, heaviest in RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH during the first half of the morning, then tapering to lighter rain/drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, especially coastal areas of eastern and southeastern MA where gusts of over 30 MPH are most likely.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periodic rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts favoring eastern coastal areas.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light showers, most likely in the morning. Highs 48-55. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s except 70s South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)
High pressure will be in control through the weekend of May 20-21 with warmest weather a slight cool-down but very nice air May 19-20 then a warm-up May 21. A frontal system moving into the region will bring the chance of showers later in the period but with continued mild air.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)
Wet and mild start to the period then a drier trend. Temperatures near to above normal.

96 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thank you, TK. Please wish your mom a happy Mother’s Day.

    Happy Mother’s Day to all moms.

    Pretty steady moderate rain. .76 as of now

  6. Thanks TK. Happy Mother’s Day to the moms! Over an inch of rain here in Plymouth, NH so far. We made it as low as 33F last night. I haven’t seen any snow mixing in here, but plenty of snow reports, and accumulating snow at that, above 1500′ in the region.

  7. Happy Mother’s Day, Mom, WHW’s number one fan!

    Happy Mother’s Day to all moms, step-moms, nannas and all who fulfill that beautiful role in life!

    1.33″ of rain in the bucket.

    We got our Babe Ruth doubleheader in late yesterday with only two drops of rain. It was a double dip for the team. Great defense, few hits. It must have been the manager.
    I have been sent back down to coach Little League again.

    Enjoy your day, Moms!!!!

  8. Happy Mother’s Day to all! 🙂

    TK – Is the real chill finally done for the season? Can we now expect persistent warmth from here on?

    1. A stretch of cool, cloudy weather with a persistent onshore breeze is always possible throughout June, so no, I don’t think we can say it’s over.

    2. I remember a 4 day stretch of cool, cloudy NE winds from July 7th to 10th two or three summers ago, where temps struggled to 65F.

      The difference with July vs April/May is when that block broke up, it was immediately followed by a long stretch of several 90F and 95F days.

  10. Happy Mother’s Day to all the mom’s out there !

    Thanks TK !

    Think it’s going to be humid Wednesday and Thursday. Barry has a LOW of 71F Wednesday night.

  11. Happy Mother’s Days to all Moms everywhere. Being a good Mother is the toughest job in the World!

  13. 1.30 inches here in JP so far with what looks to be some decent back lash rains ahead.
    We’ll see how much falls from the sky then.

  16. To answer your question, Philip, I think going forward we’ll see, as climatology would suggest anyway, plenty more warmth. As for the pattern itself, with regards to above or below normal, I think above normal temps will now be the rule for some time to come, starting next week. But as Tom indicated, you can still get stretches even into June and in some cases beyond where marine layers are dominant. If you put surface high pressure in eastern Canada, it doesn’t take much. Will we see a lot of that in 2017? I don’t think so.

  18. I know that some of you on here love Eric Fisher (and he’s usually pretty good), but he’s acting like typical media this morning on Twitter and I called him out for it:

    27m
    And wouldn’t you know it, we hit 90F within a week of that snow in May 1977. Same this week. Anomalous patterns yield anomalous results.

    Scott Kaplan @WxManScott
    18m
    Replying to @ericfisher
    Is 90 in May really anomalous though? For Lowell, we average 1 90-degree day in May.

    Eric Fisher @ericfisher
    12m
    Replying to @WxManScott
    Should be a record high for the date

    Scott Kaplan @WxManScott
    9m
    Replying to @ericfisher
    Record high for Thursday in Lowell is 95 in 1962.

    Scott Kaplan @WxManScott
    8m
    Replying to @WxManScott @ericfisher
    In fact, only 4 days in May do NOT have record highs of 90 or above. 5/1-89, 5/6-89, 5/12-89, 5/13-88.

    @ericfisher
    Replying to @WxManScott
    Yes..and I would think that records are considered anomalous, yes? If Boston breaks a 81 yr old rec, yah that’s outside the norm. Nitpicking

    Scott Kaplan @WxManScott
    3m
    Replying to @ericfisher
    For that day, yes. But just saying that 90 in May is anomalous is very misleading when it happens nearly every year.

    1. I don’t see anything wrong with bringing that to his attention. I like Eric, but I don’t think you’re nitpicking at all. You’re pointing out facts.

      No disrespect to Eric who is indeed one of my favorites in Boston. But yes the statement about things being anomalous are a bit misleading. Even if you don’t mean it to be that way, you have to think about how your audience is going to perceive it.

      1. Well, he says I’m being silly, because anytime you are “close” to a record, it’s anomalous by definition. We are “close” to records dozens of times every year. How can something that happens that often be considered anomalous?

        1. Again, agree. Too many things that are frequent occurrences are now called “anomalous” or “unusual” for the sake of media hype.

          It’s now fashionable to call a normal pattern shift from what we’re in now to an above normal temperature regime with a shot at 90 “crazy” around here. Someday I am going to go back and cite specific occurrences such as the one I just noted, and then list all the times they have happened, and then maybe people will realize one of the most “unusual” things to have happen on any given day is to have a high, low, and mean temperature of exactly “normal”. 😀

    2. Good for you . As I said before you are a straight shooter I love that. Sometimes his comments can be misleading.

    3. Is there a link to the context around this? Being a curious person, I don’t like to weigh in on anything until I see the coloring surrounding it

      1. He was talking about how the pattern for the May 1977 snowstorm was similar to today, then posted the tweet above how it went from snow to 90 within a week and called it “anomalous”

            1. And in reality, going from snow to 90 in 4 days in the Spring is not unusual. For about half the country, it can happen in the span of about 12-18 hours.

              1. I believe the transition from snow to heat in the same week was what he was referring to. However, if I am mistaken and he was referring to 90 in May as being anomalous, then I would have to disagree with Eric on that one.

                1. 90 in January or February would be considered anomalous. Not in May which is why I think he had to have been referring to the quick pattern transition.

                2. When I brought up that 90 in May was not anomalous, he said that it was because Boston’s record high is only 91 on Thursday. He then doubled down and said that anything “close” to a record is anomalous by definition.

                  However, his entire premise is wrong. He was comparing the pattern from May of 1977 to today, and then talk about the results of it. In 1977, we went from snow in Boston to 90 in a week. This year we’re going from 45 degrees and rain to near 90 in under a week. I can’t count the number of times we’ve done that around here in the Spring.

              2. I’ll pass on the discussion. I’d have to see what Eric said firsthand. Your first explanation, SAK, was different from your second so I am left with nada to go on. Either way….much to do about nuthin’. I continue to believe Eric is about as good as we have. If he makes one comment that is debatable, it won’t change that opinion. As it would not with anyone here.

  19. I don’t put much stock into daily records. Unless you’re really smashing it by several degrees, or if you’re breaking an all time monthly record, or have a string of daily records in a row, then that’s more “anomalous” territory. And of course, those things do happen quite a lot in our current longer term climate regime, because it is a highly “anomalous” climate regime that we’re in. But I agree with SAK, a pattern like this week’s is not unusual for our region in May. Disappointing that Eric would call him silly for pointing that out. I may have said before, that I like Eric as a person, but I think he occasionally has a problem with hype, no doubt a result of his TWC background.

    1. Once again, the airport totals appear to be off.

      Rain total here in JP up to 1.38 inches.

  22. Pretty cool to see all the snow reports coming in this morning as well:

    4″ reported in Hawley, MA (Franklin, MA) (elevation 1650′)
    9″ reported in Dover, VT at the summit of Mt Snow – check out these pics:

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BUEjsdBhj_N/

    https://twitter.com/TylerJankoski/status/863703839840579584

    At Killington, they are skiing on 3″ of fresh powder on the Superstar trail today.

    Monadnocks were hit pretty hard in SW NH as well with Eversource reporting numerous power outages. This photo from Nelson, NH:

    https://twitter.com/steveginx/status/863765072455376896/photo/1

  24. I’ve got to disagree with the above posts regarding Eric Fischer’s tweet. I really don’t have a problem with what he said.

    When Eric was referring to this week being “anomalous”, he was referring to the fact portions of New England received 4-10″ of snow today (on May 14) and 3-4 days from now we will be experience temps in the 85-90 range. While either of these are not unheard of, it is indeed anomalous for these two events to be occurring a few days apart in mid-May in New England. I cant remember another year this has happened in my life as I was only 1 year old in 1977. Events that happen once or twice in 40 years are anomalous in my book.

    2. Ahhhh and that was the explanation I was waiting for. It was also the first explanation SAK gave when I asked. And I would completely agree Mark and JPD. The snow alone would be an anomaly in May. And yes it happens but not on a regular basis and not to that amount.

  26. Accuweather Quizzes.

    1) Mother’s Day, 2006 featured …
    A. Severe flooding
    B. Total solar eclipse
    C. Latest snowfall ever
    D. Moderate earthquake

    (I assume they mean in the local area.)

    2. How many umbrellas are sold in the US each year?
    A. 33,000
    B. 300,000
    C. 3 million
    D. 33 million

    Answers later today.

  27. Anomalous : inconsistent with or deviating from what is normal, usual or expected.

    I kind of think both SAK and Eric Fisher have valid points depending upon how one interprets the definition.

    If one takes it as something that is inconsistent with the normal (average), then this week’s weather can be viewed as anomalous as in 4 days, the temp will transition from 18F below average to 24F above.

    If one takes the definition to be deviating from the usual or expected, then the upcoming weather could be viewed as something that happens almost every spring and therefore, is not unusual.

    I can accept both viewpoints as correct, depending on interpretation.

    1. I need to learn to read all before I post. Agree Tom as well. If he is talking about snow to 90 in mid may then I think that alone fits the description

  28. The Red Sox are playing in this unholy crap outside! Someone has lost their marbles over at Yawkey Way!

  29. A for first one and second one total guess but I will go with B
    12z GFS continues to show good instability for thunderstorms Thursday but as TK said in the comment section in the blog yesterday the moisture looks to be limited.

  30. As projected, I wonder if the EURO implies severe wx possibilities on a morning warm frontal passage at hour 192.

    Perhaps seeing S/SE surface winds with more W and SW flow above it.

  31. In the middle of Mother’s Day dinner, the smoke alarms went off. There was not a fire but we had to go outside anyway until fire arrived. It was interesting. And my umbrella protested and is now in the trash.

  35. When I referred to this system as being kind of a progressive / cut off hybrid, it was that the transition would be taking place while it was impacting the region. It has been fairly progressive (though not rapid) up until the last few hours, and now things are “backing up” as we stack the low, which will do a cyclonic loop to the east of New England before exiting later Monday. This is why the sun to the west and southwest is not really making any progress to the east, and why the bands of rain are also showing a little retrogression. This was expected and there is nothing “weird”, “odd”, or even….”anomalous” going on. 😛

    And in case it was missed above, Eric’s reference to an anomalous event was regarding 90 in May. And about that, he is incorrect. SAK is correct.

    If the reference was to going from snow to 90 in southern New England, sure that is somewhat anomalous. If it was regarding going from snow to 90 including all of New England, then it would not be so anomalous.

    This is somewhat but not directly related to a debate I had with non-met’s last night about the radar. As a meteorologist we are trained to look for errors in the technology we use. Last night, some very strong returns were being picked up over western New England which raised a red flag right away. The explanation was actually given by a couple of the NWS offices in their discussions about those returns being erroneously high and making it look like it was precipitating more heavily than it was. How did we confirm this? Simple. Surface observations. But the folks I was talking to were disregarding that advice simply saying it had to be heavy because the radar said so. Really? They give degrees in this field for a reason, but more and more people who have very little or no training in the field are becoming “experts”. Doesn’t work like that, sorry. Finally had to post NWS’s discussion to prove my point, along with pointing out the surface observations showing “light rain” where they were insisting it must be pouring. Oops! Weather 101 does not make you an expert.

    1. I found the tweet and the discussion. Eric made it clear in the discussion that going from snow to 90 in may in the span of a week is an anomaly. He is referring to Boston.

      1. Boston is not going from snow to 90 in a week, so his entire premise is wrong. Boston is going from 45 and rain to snow in a week, which happens quite often in the spring.

        2. He was referring to the May 1977 storm SAK. His entire read with you was with that in mind. He specifically stated that. And you specifically replied going from snow to 90 in may is not unusual here

          For the benefit of the doubt. I think you may have both been misunderstanding each other. Perhaps it is best to leave it at that.

          1. He said that the pattern now is very similar to the pattern in May of 1977 and then said “anomalous patterns yield anomalous results.” That implies that this week is just like May of 1977. Just looking at the upper-air maps, the pattern is not that similar up here, but the surface is completely different, so his premise is invalid to begin with, not to mention the fact that the pattern isn’t really that anomalous (a trough in the east and west and a ridge in the middle)

            However, if you want to talk about anomalous results, snow in May in the higher elevations is certainly not anomalous, neither is 90 in May almost anywhere in southern New England (except Cape Cod). So again, his statement is invalid.

            As for snow to 90 in May. First of all, as I already said, Boston is NOT going from snow to 90 in 4 days. However, in the 5 times we’ve had snow in Lowell in the month of May, all 5 have been followed by temperatures of at least 80 or more within a week.

            1. I am aware that snow at higher elevations occurs since I have repeatedly said my dad skied Tuckerman every Memorial Day. However. But or any word you want to use…..Eric made it clear he was discussing Boston. He is a Boston met…not NH. Not VT and not ME. Not CO.

              Im finished. You can keep on keeping on but going from snow to 90 in may….knowing he was referring to this area…is unusual. Other than your comment that it is usual, I honestly think you were both talking around each other and at some point stopped hearing what the other person was saying.

              Understand that what it implies to you is not close to what it implied to me and I rarely use something implied in a debate for that very reason 🙂

              1. Me too SSK.
                And lol on the whole discussion.
                And SAK, give it up, you will. not. win buddy. I’ve read this blog too long to know that you’ll not get the last word 😉

                1. Who is winning? Or losing. You are not reading.

                  Just answer one question. So far not one person has and I’ve asked several times.

                  Do you believe it is unusual to go from snow to 90 in May in the Boston area. If you do….honestly do…then I’ll happily concede if you think this is about winning

  36. Mother’s Day 5/8/1938 = 0.9″ snow for Boston.

    5/9/1977 (0.5″) is the latest but not the greatest May snowfall for Boston.

  37. Answers to Accuweather Quizzes.

    1) Mother’s Day, 2006 featured …
    A. Severe flooding
    B. Total solar eclipse
    C. Latest snowfall ever
    D. Moderate earthquake

    2. How many umbrellas are sold in the US each year?
    A. 33,000
    B. 300,000
    C. 3 million
    D. 33 million

    The correct answers are A and D. Philip got it right.

  38. What might be getting missed here is that I think Eric’s use of the term “anomalous” is an attempt to create a distinction for the purpose of drawing attention. In the realm of social media if you aren’t saying it somebody else is – and they are getting the clicks, shares and retweets you aren’t because of it. I wondered several times today if absent all the “nor’easter hype” would anyone have noticed ( at least in Boston ) that today was anything other than a very cool rainy day……?

    1. I agree with you to for the most part. I think Eric made a comment that was just that. One word was challenged and it turned into both SAK and Eric talking around each other. Both trying to make their point and neither doing that But I’ve said that a couple of times. It was when the discussion went to snow then 90 within a four day period in may that I am having trouble digesting.

      If you do a quick search of this blog, you can find anomalous used at least four to five times. It is a term that is used even here

    2. Nailed it.

      Oh, and yes, we don’t always get storms like today on May 14. Sometimes we get them on May 15, or May 13, or May 16, or May 12, or May 17, or May 11, or May 18, or May 10…. 😉

      Today was a cool and wet day, result of a well-forecast blocking pattern. Funny how weather actually does what it does, not caring what we term it, or how usual or unusual we call it. It just goes on, doing its thing, without a care. Really funny how that is… 😉

      Great comment M.L. and thanks!

  39. I been extremely busy as of lately with finals and everything but wanted to stop by and say happy Mothers Day to all the mothers out there. Hope you all had a great day!!

  40. The NWS uses the term anamolous all the time in their technical discussions. In fact, they went so far as to refer to this late season May nor’easter as “rare” in their technical discussion a few days ago. I have no problem with that either. Noreasters on May 14 are not common. 5-10″ of snow in the higher elevations of central and SNE on May 14 is not common. And near record 90 degree temps in Mid may, while not unheard of, is well above normal for this time of year and not common. Put them together in a 4 day span and this is not your typical week of mid May New England weather.

    I would challenge anyone to look through the last 100 years of records for southern VT/NH and western MA to find how many times this has occurred.

    Keep in mind too that Fischer’s tweet is not specific to Boston and his viewing area covers large portions of MA and NH. I even get him here in NE CT.

    Apologize for beating a dead horse. I think we can all agree to disagree on this one and leave it at that!

  41. I guess its been good I been busy with several projects with the lab dealing with climate change effects on the environment. Including cordinating my project with others in other locations.
    1. 85% certain that I am going to Nantucket this summer to do my Honors Research project On Crab population dynamics in relation to seagrass density.
    This will show
    What Crab species call seagrass their home. Invasive and Natives (Crab population dynamics)
    How decreasing seagrass effects invasive and native species
    Do the invasive species populations increase as the Summer goes on (possibly showing warming temperatures could benefit them)

    Now onto Eric’s comments.
    1. I thought we left that blog to get away from people criticizing and insulting the Mets that took their time to explain their forecasts.
    2. Eric covers New England not just Boston.
    3. yes, the higher elevations see some snow in may depending on the year. But that much snow in the mountains is not common and not normal for May.
    4. having 90 degrees in may is seen but above normal.
    5. What people fail to realize is that extremes will increase in occurrence as Anthropological climate change gets worst and worst. Having these 2 extremes/anomalies in a 4 day period is definitely not common here in New England. Does it happen? Yes but we also have the dam Atlantic Ocean next to us that acts as a temperature controller. This might happen alot in the central, northern plains and rockies Blah Blah Blah, but not around here.
    This is a perfect example on how we will see extremes in both directions, not just warm and dry.
    Also if you think I do not know my stuff, I am majoring in Marine and Environmental science. This includes all aspect of the marine environments which includes the weather patterns. I have seen first hand how climate change is affecting marine and terrestrial habitats. Those who say we do not have the tech to measure how the atmosphere was accurate. I Call BS. My professor showed me some Ice core samples. in the lab that he has retrieved from Greenland. I have measured the rings on corals. I have seen Plant fossils. etc . People do not realize the tech we now have at our disposal but people still listen to the alternative fact universe and its mainly here in the USA. Also last time I checked there is a difference between meteorologists and climatologists. Climate models have been way more accurate than our daily weather models by the way 😉

  42. Aaaand then there’s climate change thrown in there, if the above discussion wasn’t muddy enough 🙂

    1. Haha that’s one of your better ones, Mr. SAK!

      I’m also in general agreement with the forecast, as is usually the case. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out in about a week. The only number I’m 100% certain of for Sunday is that it will be my first full day at age 50 as I arrive there at 5:16PM on May 20. 😛

  44. I could make this a long reply but I’ll say this…

    This blog does not have a rule against criticizing other forecasters. It has a rule against directly insulting people. The criticism of Eric Fisher by SAK was well within the guidelines and was also justified. I already gave my thoughts on the subject and stand by those. Perhaps it is that folks definition of “anomalous” is variable. That does not change the fact that Eric, and others, often go for the impact with statements made through their various media sources. Part of it is the job, part of it is the thrill of creating a reaction. We see that all the time.

    I addressed the issue based on whether the statement was for Boston specifically, or New England as a whole, so we know the story on that.

    Eric’s statement was not related to a debate on man’s impact on climate.

    I really need to get myself a complete collection of New England’s climate record. SAK, where is our old friend DMT when we need him? 😉 Otherwise I think it’s time we turn in our diplomas and experience because I guess you no longer need those to have the answers in our field. 😉

    I think people need to start educating themselves on the difference between “normal” and “unusual” and more importantly “frequency of occurrence” with regard to certain events, and then keep in mind the period of record we are using to make statements about a time frame much larger than that.

    There is no dead horse here folks. It’s alive and well.

    Moving on…

  45. What do May 1, 5, 8, 12, 13, and 14 have in common?

    They are the only 6 days that have failed to reach or exceed 90 in Boston during the month of May. The record high temps for those dates range from 86 to 89.

    If you study climate, you will know that in the mid latitudes, the most extreme weather variation occurs in both spring and autumn. This is also impacted by regional geography (mountains, ocean, etc.). For New England, proximity to Canada, mountains, and ocean, all have impact, making spring more prone to extreme than autumn in this region.

    What we are seeing this May, and many many Mays in the past (and yes I will go back and compile examples if desired, though that will take a little time as I no longer work with the person that keeps it since he passed away), is an example of this variability. I’ll settle the debate right here. Going from May snow to 90 within 4 days while indeed is extreme and may not be something we’d really see very often in a place like Boston or even most of southern New England, going from a pattern that creates higher elevation accumulating snow to a brief shot of warm air that brings temperatures into the 80s to lower 90s in May in central and southern New England as a whole is not very anomalous at all. This pattern may occur in April, or June, and its results will be altered based on the time of year. The occurrence of these flip flops, one way or another, is fairly frequent in this part of the country in the spring (and other parts of the country too but we were not talking about other parts of the country with regards to the Twitter debate).

    SAK’s issue with Eric’s statement was valid. A lot of people are going to hear what he had and interpret it as “snow to 90” and forget about all the details regarding location, etc., that we discussed. In this concern, SAK is correct to point it out and correct in his argument. And believe me both SAK and I have very much respect for Eric. It’s very easy to make a statement, even if you are not intending to, that is going to be misleading. I saw what he wrote too, and I agree with SAK. I guarantee you that the majority of people that read it took it in a way that the misleading information (intended or not) is now accepted as fact. Sometimes the meteorological “one-liner”, while impactful, should be left aside in favor of a longer and more boring message that contains better information in the name of education.

  46. New post!

    My ability to answer any questions and post comments may be a little less than usual this week as I have…
    A friend possibly going into hospital.
    A mom to take on errands.
    An awards ceremony for my son on Monday.
    A dentist appointment on Tuesday.
    A lawn to mow by mid week.
    Etc. You get the idea. As always I’ll do the best I can. Behave nicely, boys and girls! 😉

Comments are closed.