Monday Forecast

53 Comments

3:05AM

COMMENTARY
No. Extremes in the spring are not unusual. Stop letting the media make you think otherwise. It’s getting tiring to be honest. If you want my full thoughts, I refer you to the comments from yesterday’s blog entry.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)
Pattern change time! Say goodbye to the upper low which will cause one more day of cool and unsettled weather, then will be replaced by a high pressure ridge bringing a significant warm-up from Tuesday through Thursday, with dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday, and a risk of showers and thunderstorms as humidity increases and a cold front approaches on Thursday. By Friday, we keep the upper level high pressure area generally in place but introduce somewhat cooler/drier air as a different surface high pressure area noses its way in from eastern Canada behind that cold front.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy with diminishing rain/drizzle morning. Partial sun this afternoon especially west of Boston. Highs 55-63, mildest interior areas. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts early, then diminishing.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s except a few middle 80s interior warm spots and upper 60s to lower 70s South Coast.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s except middle 70s to lower 80s South Coast.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to upper 70s, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)
Expect high pressure to bring a great day for my birthday oops I mean May 20. After that, things are not so clear-cut as we may see a front drop in from the north next Sunday, set-up a temperature contrast, and then a trough from the west adding moisture to the mix and a period of unsettled weather resulting.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)
Should trend a little drier and warmer during these days.

53 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK – Especially for May 20th which I’m sure you had a hand in. We will grill in your honor!

  4. I finally decided that we don’t live in a “nice” or pleasant climate by most standards. I very much look forward to moving somewhere else at some point in life. Whether it’s a long cold stretch or this misery we’ve had now for seemingly weeks, our climate is while interesting, is an uncessary endurance test more frequently than I prefer. There are just nicer places to live that are still variable enough.

    1. I hear what you are saying, but you are not sounding like a true New Englander. 😀 There are many places I could live, but prefer to stay right here. I can put up with the Spring weather as much as I do complain. Complaining is in my nature.

    2. ^^^^This x 1000
      I’m not a native so I do look forward to moving at some point. My wife is a native, but she would move yesterday if possible.

  5. Having lived all over the world and traveled a lot I have to say that overall our climate is not as bad as people think. I love 4 seasons, certainly winter is long but has its benefits. Very few places in the US I would pick over Boston due to its cultural history. I can deal with some crappy weather to live in an educated, tolerable city.

  7. Wishing you a very happy birthday, Longshot!! Maybe celebrate by dancing in a puddle 🙂 But whatever you choose to do, I hope your day is perfect.

  8. I have traveled alot in my short life and can say I do not see myself living outside of New England for any real extended amount of time.
    The southeast can be so HUMID. The Northwest can be cool and wet (like we have been having lately but even more consistent) Plains are not near an ocean so forget about that all togeather.

    I love new England because of the climate. Yeah other areas see changes in their seasons but not as extreme as here. We have great Summer and great winter seasons. We have the ability here to do different activities based on the season so you never have to be bored and can look at each season as a new opportunity to do something. It’s up to the individual to find an activity that they like during that season to not hate it.

    I honestly think part of the reason New England has a fast moving society is because we have the 4 seasons, we are on clocks, we have been for most of the history of the region.

    I could never see myself not living in New England, do to the seasons, the high education standards and though its looking more and more likely I will be out of new England for grad school and it could be a rather far distance from here… I would not like to live out of New England afterwards.

  9. I love New England. Every thing about it. Every little thing.
    I could live in the SW (New Mexico) or the NW (Oregon) as well.

  10. What I’ve found the hardest about the last few weeks is that it seems to just never get light out. It goes from dark through various shades of grey and drizzle to dark again. Even in January cold at least there does seem to be fairly frequent sunlight. The last few weeks have seemed like a “night” that has been 14 + days long……

    1. we need to hope its not a strong one, the reefs in Southeast Asia/ Australia need some time to recover from the overly warm temperatures they have been having.

  12. Good instability being shown on the American models for Thurs for thunderstorms but moisture is lacking.

  14. Thanks, TK.

    I, too, love New England. I love all the changes. And as others have said, we have the winters; we have the summers; we have the springs and falls. Always changing. New England weather is interesting! Never boring. Yes, I am looking forward to some sunnier and warmer weather. It will be here. And when it does – wow. We will feel the change.

  16. Those other locations that get a nice, warm early spring right off the bat pay a huge price in severe weather. I would not want to have to life in an area under a tornado watch/warning every other day.

  18. 2.22″ for a weekend total here at the Storm HQ World Headquarters Compound.

    I concur about not wanting to live anywhere else. I’ve visiting a large portion of this great nation, as well as some other adjacent countries, and I much prefer here to anywhere else I’ve been.

    Having said that, I hope that I have never to deal with the “customer service” as the Massachusetts Health Connector ever again. They are the most incompetent bunch of morons I’ve ever dealt with, and having previously worked in customer service for 9 years, I know of what I speak. The fact that I had to get the Governor’s office involved to help me fix a problem that was no fault of my own speaks volumes to how incompetent they are.

    Sorry, had to get that off my chest.

    1. I’ve dealt with some pretty nasty “customer service” which probably should have been called “customer disservice”.

      1. I was literally quoting their policies to them directly from their own website and they told me that I was wrong. Then, I asked them a question to which I had the answer directly in front of me and they lied to me. When I told them they were lying and provided proof, they again told me that I was wrong.

        I worked in customer service for 9 years. If I did that to a customer I’d have been fired instantly.

  19. Thursday ….. it seems, incrementally, the models continue to warm the airmass over us with each run and it looks like the passage of the warmest air occurs Thursday afternoon during max heating.

    I can see a small 18C, 850 mb bullseye at 00Z May 19th over southern New England on the 12z GFS and there’s been a larger 18C bullseye on the EURO.

    90F to 95 Thursday, if we evaporate a decent amount of ground moisture tomorrow and Wednesday. Sfc wind looks to be SW or maybe even WSW. Think Logan and even Marshfield may be hot too.

          1. We didn’t want to install any window AC units yet,
            but I WILL have to install at least 1 for Thursday.

    2. From NWS re: Thursday/Friday

      Thursday…

      Near record high temps are anticipated for Thu. Plenty of strong May
      sunshine coupled with 850T near +18C and southwest surface winds
      should yield a hot afternoon for many locations. Highs will probably
      reach the lower 90s in the lower elevations away from the modified
      marine airmass near the south coast.

      Dry weather expected for the vast majority of Thu. It is possible
      that a pre-frontal trough may result in enough convergence with
      decent instability for the low risk of a few afternoon/evening
      t-storms. However, lack of strong forcing and deep moisture will
      make this a low risk at this time.

    3. Topsoil moisture should go very rapidly the next 2 days. There are still some trees that are not fully leafed-out yet which will enhance the process. Realistically my top # in my mind is maybe 93 Thursday. Could someone spike just above that? Sure.

  20. If your fan of thunderstorms good instability shown by the American models but limited moisture.

    1. Not just that, what about a lifting mechanism?

      Front itself is likely to come through late Thursday night to Friday morning sometime. Unless a pre-frontal trough sets up to provide the lift, not likely
      to see much of anything happening. We shall see. Still a couple of days.

    2. Pretty much what I said 2 days ago…
      Glad the models are paying attention. 😉

  21. We in New England seem to always go from the deep chill to the broiler with very little transition and this time is no exception, unfortunately. UGH!!

  22. I think 90s will be the rule, not the exception, on Thursday, even near the east coast. Still waiting on our first good thunderstorms of the year. Obviously the current pattern has not been at all conducive to them, and I don’t see any glaring opportunities in the next week or so. If the front slows down a little, which seems to be the trend, maybe a shot on Friday? Unlikely though.

    I’m also not buying sustained well above average temperatures going into the end of this month. We’ll go very warm for a few days this week. Beyond then, bleh. NAO tanks again. Last 7-10 days of the month look near to below normal to me for temperatures, and probably unsettled as well.

      1. Hope so! Thanks as always for your thoughts TK, lots of good insights the past few days!

    1. And then folks will think it’s here to stay then be shocked when Boston falls to the 50s on Sunday. 😉

  24. Not looking forward to the heat later this week. 90s with little or no transition time is big time ugh in my book. Oh well, it’s just weather.

    Nice to hear that a record was broken on Mt. Washington this weekend. I’d love to be there right about now. https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/05/15/washington-gets-recordbreaking-snowfall-mass-prepares-for-heat/nUs9dljFvrrd7OyOMPdzbN/story.html?s_campaign=bdc:globewell:trending&s_campaign=bdc:globewell:trending

  26. As of now I’m going to lean away from the cut-off idea some medium range runs have for Memorial Day Weekend. I realize it’s a long way off but the idea of it seems less likely than a more progressive trough for reasons I’ll get into when I’m not running all over the place like I am today and most of the next few days…

    I want to analyze this a bit more anyway.

    1. Great game, been very entertaining. Bad feeling that the C’s lose, but it’s been a great season regardless.

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