Thursday Forecast

136 Comments

1:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 18-22)
A strong ridge of high pressure brings another day of mid summer heat today, over 1 month before we reach the summer solstice. Early-season heat is certainly not unheard of. We’ve had plenty of 90 degree days in May, and even some in April. Either way, this summer preview will be rather short-lived. A cold front will come through the region Friday and return temperatures to more seasonable levels for the weekend. A warm front will then approach later Sunday and make it through the region by Monday, at which time a cold front will approach from the west, the first signs of a return to an unsettled pattern…
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. More humid. Highs 75-86 South Coast except cooler islands, 87-95 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and a slight chance of thunder, favoring areas west and northwest of Boston. Humid. Lows 63-71. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly morning to early afternoon. Humid then drier later in the day. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 46-56, coolest interior rural areas, mildest urban locations. Highs 66-73, coolest coastal areas.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 48-55, coolest interior valleys. Highs 66-82, coolest eastern coastal areas.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chanced of showers. Lows 55-62. Highs 65-72.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 23-27)
Fair May 23, next chance of rain or showers followed on May 24 and lingering scattered showers with an upper low May 25. Additional unsettled weather possible May 26-27. Temperatures should average below normal overall for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)
Drying trend expected. Temperatures return to more seasonable levels.

136 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK !

    Here’s the last 4 days high temps at Logan ….

    51F, 61F, 81F, 92F

    Anomolies : ( -8F, -4F, +10F, +18F)

    94F to 96F today ????

    1. Eric picked 94 for Boston today. I am guessing like you, 95 or 96 even 97 wouldn’t surprise me. When you’re on a roll of over achieving, why stop now.

      btw, Eric said that dew points would be dropping off this afternoon.
      The only possible reason I could think of would be the passage of
      a “Dry” pre-frontal trough bringing some subsidence behind it with a bit
      of drying going on.

      Any thoughts?

      WPC surface shows no trough until this evening or tonight in our area

      http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/94fndfd.gif

      Doesn’t mean there won’t be one.

      1. Logan’s wind back up and wind is now DUE WEST.
        Temp 84, dp 63 and it’s not 9AM just yet.

    1. With a West wind, likely to reach that, if not higher.

      I’m going to Give Logan a 97.
      It has a good beat and and you can dance to it. 😀

      94, 95, 96 or 97, what’s the difference? It’s still freaking hot!

  10. From NWS:

    With an even warmer start than yesterday, expecting
    another round of temperatures will into the upper 80s to upper 90s
    across the region. Thanks to a W-component to the flow, downsloping
    will enhance temps.

  12. Basketball game last night was like watching Varsity play the Junior Varsity squad. Great run by the Celtics but last night proved how much better the Cavs (and Warriors in the west) are than the rest of the NBA. Not even close. The C’s proved they are the best of that remaining bunch but are gonna need a lot more than an 18 year old #1 draft pick to get them closer to the elite in this league.

    1. I agree the game was brutal. I couldn’t watch it at all. BRUTAL.

      However, I disagree about the draft pick. IF and I say IF the pick
      turns out to be a superstar, they could compete with both of those teams.
      If the pick turns into a DUD, then all bets are off. I know NOTHING
      about the players available in the draft. Nothing. There is some talk
      that Danny may trade the pick for a young established player. We shall see.

      1. Their best chance at winning now is to trade the pick. If they plan to just stay competitive with the field and not compete for a title, then yes, draft the player and hope he turns out to be a franchise player. I hate the draft for that reason, you just never know no matter how many pundits say this guy is a can’t miss player. I know lots of other #1 picks that turned out to be duds and set back franchises for years.

        1. AGREE. The draft is a crap shoot for sure.
          Aside from whether or not they materialize,
          look

          I don’t know much about basket ball. I was never much
          of a fan. The last time I was interested was way back with John Havlicek and team mates. I was somewhat interested during the Bird days, but Zero since.

          I just never could play the game and perhaps that’s why the lack of interest. Baseball and Hockey were my games.

      2. Meant to say if they draft the player, he’ll need time to develop and they wont be able to compete with those teams for several years to come. And by then, those might not be the elite teams anymore and there might be other teams to contend with that have been developing their own #1 picks. It’s incredibly difficult to become elite in the NBA by just developing picks.

  13. NWS says Thankfully well mixed boundary will also allow the early morning
    dewpoints in the low-mid 60s to mix a bit lower through the day,
    limiting RH values somewhat. So that is the reason Eric said dps would relax
    some this afternoon. THAT HELPS!

  15. Many reporting stations already pushing 90 at 10AM. Would not be surprised to see someone hit 100 this PM. Has there ever been a 100 degree high temperature at a New England reporting station in May before?

    1. Good question? I dunno
      But with West wind and down sloping AND lower dps, It would NOT surprise
      me to see a couple of 100 degree readings. Perhaps some place like
      Fitchburg or Lawrence or Springfield and perhaps Hartford or Windsor Locks.

      I think Logan surpasses 95 and lands in the 96-98 degree range. I picked 97.

      We shall see.

  17. 10:12 AM, Logan has hit 90 with dp down to 54!

    That combo of lower dp and West wind and BLAZING sunshine could really
    drive that temperature up.

      1. Now that is one hell of a shot!!

        That is truly an awesome view to say the least.

        Thank you for sharing

  21. It is 88 degrees in Sudbury right now.

    I am enjoying the “taste of summer” today. Kind of. Hard to get used to after so long. We don’t have A/C set up yet but fortunately there is a kind of breeze, so not too bad and back to reality tomorrow and the wknd. Humidity feels up today, too.

    JP Dave – hope your wife is feeling ok w/this heat and humidity.

    1. Thanks rainshine. OK yesterday, not so good last night.
      I installed one AC unit last night for refuge today. We shall see
      this afternoon.

  24. Celtics: I follow basketball almost religiously and think the Celtics are in a great position right now. LeBron James is 32 years old, while you can never count him out the Cavs will be bearable in a couple years. The Warriors, who knows how long they will stay together. The Celtics are already the 5th, 6th best team in the league. The likely pick this year is Markelle Fultz, he’s being projected as a star in the NBA. Not as good as Ben Simmons, but Fultz still can become a top 15 player. On top of that, if Bradley is traded, we will have the ability to sign a star like Gordon Hayward. If that happens Fultz may be traded with a few others such as Smart and an overseas player Guerschon Yabusele for someone like Butler(George is linked to the Lakers in free agency next year, so unlikely that we’d get him). A lineup of IT/Hayward/Butler/Crowder/Horford is definitely a very good team.

  26. Logan dp = 53

    I have no clue as to the sudden drop from 64 awhile ago, but I’ll take it. 🙂

    1. The dewpoint drop is due to the west wind. Winds our of the W or WNW are downsloping off of the Monadnocks/Worcester Hills, and thus dry the air as it heads eastward. Once the wind direction is 260 or lower, there is no downsloping. That’s why Boston’s warmest days are the ones where the wind direction is between 270 and 290.

  28. Thanks, TK.

    My goodness it’s hot. Summer preview for sure.

    Have not seen a post from Vicki in a while. Is she allright?

  29. So far 91 appears to be tops for now and maintaining. Just not going up much.
    WILL there be a push after noon time? Or has it really leveled off?

  30. The SPC has issued a high risk once again, for southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma including Witchita and Dodge City. 3rd of the year, I think, which is pretty impressive. One of the discussions even indicated a possibilty of them adding an area with 45% tornado risk, which seems monsterous. All depends on whether the first cells are discrete, if no organized complex forms, watch out! Should get active down there in 2 or 3 more hours. Locally, looks like we’re all in a general risk with an area of marginal risk into Worcester County. Fits with TK’s forecast.

  31. My friend and young chaser is interning with a chase team in the Plains. She arrived Monday. Today will be their second big chase in 3 days. They were on the Elk City OK storm 2 days ago.

    1. Wish her luck. It’s going to be a big day there, many other chasers also in the area. Hopefully no one gets hurt.

    1. Logan now up to 93 with Mansfield, CT the jackpot at 95.

      Looking like TK may have hit the nail on the head for Logan’s High temp.
      I “think” we have to wait until about 5PM to know for sure. 😀

  34. All time record for May in Boston is 97 set in 1880.
    I was going to type at Logan but there wasn’t a Logan in 1880.
    There weren’t planes then!

    1. Windsor Locks 95 while Logan remains at 93 at this hour.
      Meeting for an hour. What will in be when I come back? 😀

  35. A couple thoughts …..

    Feeling slightly more optimistic long range that while a more active pattern may be returning, that perhaps the lows will track over or to our north, providing milder rain chances, as opposed to cold, raw rain chances associated with lows sliding underneath us.

    When the topic of climate change arises, sometimes I go blank for examples on why I believe the climate has warmed 1C or a bit more the last 30 or so years. Id have to submit the last 3 days as some possible evidence. I’m rather surprised this air mass has overachieved the way it has given the rain seen the last many months. I just don’t believe this should be happening. Forecast of 76F to 77F Tuesday, it gets into the low 80s, forecast of mid-upper 80s yesterday and it achieves the low 90s. A day or 2 ago, it was looking like 91F or 92F today, I believe everyone got a clue and raised their projections, but still, compared to a day or 2 ago of low 90s projections, we’re headed for the mid 90s. Warm sectors just consistently over multiple days seem to overachieve frequently and in this case, right after a rather long term wet period.

    1. I posted this during our last bout of warm weather a month ago, but the models ALWAYS underestimate early heat in the Spring. ALWAYS. My forecasts the past few nights have been above the MOS numbers (but even still a tad too low).

      This is because MOS has climatology built in as part of the equations, so it will always have problems with extremes (on both ends). It has nothing to do with climate change.

  36. Blue Hill has hit 94. That ties an all time monthly record for May, and it would not surprise me at all if they tack on another degree or two. Now that is impressive.

    Funny, I was in the camp of noting nothing particularly unusual about this pattern, and indeed, cold to hot in springtime in New England is not unusual. But I explicitly noted that, among other things, all time monthly records are something to take very seriously. This is a pretty big deal.

    I mentioned dew points yesterday as well, and how I thought someone could hit 100 if they stayed as low as they did yesterday. Well, dew points have underachieved today (thanks, mixing!), and that’s one of the reasons we’re so hot.

    1. This is pretty ridiculous. It’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility that this ends up being the hottest day of the YEAR at some reporting stations.

    2. I think if we were smashing all time monthly records on a routine basis it would be a little more concerning. We haven’t had too many hot Mays recently, and this spell is really just going to get us back to normal for the month so far, before we drop below again next week.

  37. 96 in Willimantic CT the hottest reading now in SNE. This also happens to be the closest reporting station to my house.

    Even 61 atop Mt Washington!

        1. That was a very cool summer too. BAK and I were just talking about the notorious cool summers that everyone seems to ignore.

          1. Actually, Summer, 1992 (Jun-Aug) was 0.6 degrees above normal in Lowell. Rainfall was also 1.29″ above normal.

            1991 was cool, as was 1990, and 1989.

            1. Right, I was thinking 1991. There were a few cool ones in a row. Was 2000 or 2001 the other really cool one? I’m not near my data. 😉

              1. 2000 was 1.8 degrees below normal in Lowell. Rainfall was 4.42 inches above normal.

                2009 was actually the 4th coldest on record – 3.6 degrees below normal, rainfall was 5.98 inches above normal.

    2. What you are seeing northwest of Boston on that radar on the composite loop is distant radar beams picking up ice crystals falling out of thick cirrus clouds. Those are evaporating above 15,000 feet. The little line to the south of Boston moving northward is actually the South Coast Seabreeze. There was a very well-defined one of these yesterday that made it all the way to the western and immediate northern suburbs of Boston in the evening, but didn’t do much to change the air.

      1. Thank you! It did get cloudy here and it looked like it might rain but sun is out now. Thanks for informative and interesting reply.

  39. At least the dew points are not off the charts with this hear.
    Looking for the radar to light up like a Christmas tree in the Plains this afternoon and evening.

    1. It’s very hard to get really humid this early in the season. And the dp’s are down a little this afternoon, which was expected. They’ll come up a bit overnight and early Friday.

  40. Not sure if my data is accurate, but I see that at some point this PM,
    Logan And Blue Hill hit 95 and Norwood hit 97.

    1. Norwood is a known hot spot.

      To be honest, tying or setting monthly records is not really a huge deal. It’s bound to happen on occasion, and this is one of them. Many folks don’t realize the timing has to be exactly right to have your maximum potential heat realized. The “hottest” part of an air mass often is only a few hours in length, and you have a pretty low chance of it landing square in the hours of max heating, so that would be your explanation for the infrequency of such spikes. But over many years, we have pretty much hit or exceeded 90 away from typical cool spots on every day in the month of May.

  41. Marshfield now 97 at 3PM.
    Willimantic still at 96.
    Burlington VT 92.
    Mt Washington up to 63!

    1. Marshfield’s temp is probably wrong. They have not had accurate temps or dewpoints for about 25 years.

  42. Logan dp dropped now to 51.

    I can’t recall ever seeing this with a 90+ dp combo around here…ever.

    Nice! 😀

  43. Temps seem to be peaking. Looks like 97 or 98 is going to do it for the hottest temp in SNE today.

  44. Next thing to watch for today will be convection. The HRRR has been pretty consistent on getting some showers/storms at least into Worcester, if not a little beyond, around midnight tonight. NWS is taking it up quite a bit in their latest update. We’ll see. Not sure about the moisture, something TK noted several days ago would limit our storm threat today.

  46. Special Weather Statement issued for parts the region highlighting northern CT western and central MA for thunderstorms reaching these areas between 8-10pm with some storms may producing damaging winds and hail

  50. I saw the following Highs of 97

    Marshfield
    Fitchburg
    Norwood
    Mansfield, Ct
    Windsor Locks, Ct

    95 at the following:

    Boston (Logan)
    Blue Hill
    Springfield
    Holyoke
    Hartford, Ct

  51. What’s up with the NWS radars?

    I checked Boston, Albany, Buffalo and Binghampton and ALL are down for
    maintenance?????? Seems odd with a severe t-storm watch up.

    1. New York City
      Burlington, VT
      Portland, Me
      Philadelphia, PA

      As well.

      What gives??? this is nuts!!!

  52. HRRR latest runs still showing showers and storms getting into parts of SNE later this evening.

  56. Currently Five tornado watches in the Plains some of the have a particularly dangerous situation attached to them. Closer to home radar lighting up like a Christmas tree parts of Upstate NY with numerous severe thunderstorm warnings.

  57. Boys soccer practice at 6:30 was brutal. I know humidity was low but 90+ heat is tough no matter what the dp is.

  58. I totally agree with you on that. 90 or above to me no matter what the dew point is is hot to me.

  59. It’s funny Joe had a baseball game in Kingston which is the next town over and was not hot at all great night and same here in pembroke not hot to my surprise as marshfield was 97 I thought I heard . Back to baseball my son got the game ball.

      2. Yup, seems a couple degrees too warm, especially during the warm season. I wonder where, at the marshfield airport, the instrumentation is set up ?

  60. Strong cell, part of a line, approaching the Gardner area. About to leave the SPC marginal risk area. Gust front is now ahead of the storm so it looks like it will be weakening soon. Hopefully some form of rain makes it to the coast.

    1. NWS sees something different. Severe thunderstorm warning all the way to the coast until 10:45. Think it’s a bit premature, but what do I know?

      1. STW extends just to the north of Boston…not quite all the way to the immediate coast including Gloucester.

  61. Logan dp is now up to 61. Might have known those low 50 dp’s too good to last forever.

    UGH!! I could feel something wasn’t right this early evening.

  62. Weather underground radar picking up nice outflow boundary from line of thunderstorms in central MA.

  63. 2 comments awaiting moderation because I stuck a b after my name, somehow I tab down occasionally when I type. I’m a dope !! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  64. It seems the warning was issued for the gust front. Turned out to be a good call. Numerous reports of wind damage from it across the area.

  65. Lightning, Thunder, heavy rain. and wind. Its a good thing I brought in my flowering lemon bush.

  68. And a second larger storm with a severe T-storm warning in western CT is heading this way right on its heals.

  69. Impressive storms tonight. Did not think they would be this extensive and severe with just 500-1000 joules of CAPE and overnight timing. Boston about to get hit hard.

  70. 45.8F atop Mt Washington, still very mild, but first signs of cold air advection beginning. By surface obs, surface cold front still just north of US/Canada border. Sunny skies and a high launching pad. What high temps will be achieved today in interior southeastern Massachusetts ??

  71. Short on time this morning so the new post is just a fast forecast update. Will edit later today to add more.

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