Sunday Forecast

95 Comments

3:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)
The middle day of the Memorial Day Weekend will feature fair weather courtesy of high pressure, but a reminder that tides are astronomically high and some coastal flooding may occur around high tide times. A low pressure system will approach from the west Memorial Day Monday, which its center destined to pass to the north of the region, however an occluding front trailing from it will help spawn another low offshore to the south and southeast of New England by evening. This setup and evolution leads to a mainly cloudy day with period of wet weather from midday through evening. Hopefully, it will stay dry for most of the morning when the majority of outdoor parades and ceremonies are. When we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, a warmer westerly flow will take over, but a couple passing disturbances may ignite some showers and possible thunderstorms. Dry weather is expected for Thursday.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-65 coast, 66-71 interior. Wind light variable with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 52-57. Wind light SE.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain mainly midday and afternoon. Highs 58-63 coast, 63-68 interior. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle evening, ending overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 53-58. Wind light SE to E.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 60-67 South Coast, 68-75 interior. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Lows 53-60. Highs 70-77, cooler South Coast.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 53-60. Highs 73-80, cooler South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 2-6)
A frontal system may bring a few showers June 2 then fair June 3-4. Low pressure may bring some wet weather by June 5-6. Temperatures near to slightly above normal but may cool at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 7-11)
Episodes of unsettled weather as a broad trough sends disturbances across the region Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

95 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Good thing the sun was out for a whopping few hours yesterday before my pool soared past 58 degrees. If the clouds hang tough this morning (crossing fingers), maybe it’ll drop the water to the mid 50’s.

    Maybe I’ll go to Charlie’s house. I’m sure his pool is 80+ by now.

        1. I have both, but the heat pump might as well be a boat anchor. It works ok mid June to end of August, but it’s not the greatest. The propane works like gangbusters. Kids are in it right now. 88 degrees water with 3 propane patio heaters going is fine. We knew when we put the pol in that a heater was a must. Seasons short as it is. Summer here is basically 60 days, then that’s it. Mid June to mid August for consistent summer weather (even that’s iffy) just doesn’t cut it for us. We’d move south yesterday but work keeps me here.

  3. Man, I like Brett Anderson and all but he’s even outdone himself this time. His latest headline:

    “Notable increase in extreme precipitation events for the northeastern U.S. since 1996”.

    My smart-ass comments:

    1. Go digging through your high school memorabilia and see if you can find that old copy of George Orwell’s “1984” as understanding “newspeak” is going to help as we are apparently changing our language. (extreme is changing for example)

    2. I guess now when I’m watching NOVA or Nat Geo, measurement scales and comparisons need to be pared back to 20 years. (why not six months then)

    3. With so much “extreme” out there, we should start preparing now for the long term (20 years apparently) and live underground where the conditions are generally static. Mars would be an option too except I characterize it as “super-duper-extreme” except for the precipitation part I suppose.

    1. Yup, he’s wrong.

      I worked with the MA State Climatologist for years, and I assure you there has not been a “notable increase” in anything in the Northeast.

    2. This was not Brett’s study. He’s simply reporting the findings of another study by Dartmouth College. I must disagree with TK here. Precipitation and extreme precipitation have both increased notably across much of the US and especially in the Northeast. That’s not really up for debate. 20 years is not a very good marker to use, but the increase dates back well before then. There is plenty of reading you can do on that to check for yourself.

      http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-downpours-increasing

  4. Thanks Tk!!

    So happy for the forecast with all the people coming today for the birthday party!!

  5. Barry’s Summer Outlook is for near to above normal rainfall and temperature with 14 90-degree days for Boston. The suburbs will likely have more.

    Barry also emphasized…NO DROUGHT!!

  6. According to Barry, next Saturday will be sunny with temps in the low 70s but Sunday quite wet.

    2. There were showers around. It was not that bad. Sun at times as well. Woburn doesn’t cancel their Memorial Day activities for wet weather. The band was equipped with ponchos and only needed them for a short while. 🙂

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.
    63 here already, which is High as it got yesterday. A definite improvement.

    Hadi, So happy for you that the weather cooperated. Have a great time.

  9. Anyone see the meteorologist on Channel 4 last night?

    Jacob Wycoff

    It was his 1st broadcast here in Boston. I think he did a pretty nice job.
    I think he is a keeper. I only wish they would replace Pamela Gardner with
    this guy. It would be a substantial upgrade.

        1. One can only hope. Although Danielle will likely require maternity time. Maybe he is just a temporary fill-in? We will see.

  10. What a beauty of a day today…at least so far. 20 or so of these per each May would be perfect!

  13. I’d like to see a study done on what caused the Dust Bowl in the 1930s. 😉

    1. Hmmm

      That would be interesting.

      Did man contribute to it? Much of that land was covered with trees until
      they were all cut down to provide farm land. Did that process spiral out of control in conjunction with a natural dry spell? I don’t know for sure.

      1. yes it was, it was less rain yes, but it was the farming practices that made it what it was.

  14. Ok folks. Lots of running around today. Already been doing it since 7:45AM.

    Niece’s daughter turns 1 year old today. A party for that, then heading to Hampton Beach for the first “summer season” outing including fireworks display of course.

    Great weather weekend (2 out of 3 anyway). I have had people ask me why we have not seen consistent 80s and beach weather yet. Anyone know why? Come on. You can answer correctly. It’s not hard. 😉

    Good day from Mr. Snarkmaster.

  15. No sun here. Dark clouds that look ominous toward the south west. No rain on radar though. Was nicer yesterday.

    1. Temporary. There is a stronger convergence on the sea breeze boundary today. That just happens to be over your area at the moment.

      Many hours of daylight left and your sky will change.

  16. Regarding the Dust Bowl years, I was half kidding when I suggested a study. It’s pretty well known. Being an agricultural meteorologist, I have quite a bit of info on this period, but here is a brief summary, and Vicki, you are partly correct, some of it was our own fault, and it’s kind of amusing why…

    The region from the Canadian Prairies through the US High Plains is typically semi-arid, that is, it receives 20 inches or less precipitation per year. There had been a several year period of much wetter than normal weather in the region which, ironically, was blamed on “climate change”. Yes, farmers and the government thought that our climate had shifted and this area was now going to stay wetter. Not realizing that the large scale patterns are driven in large part by solar cycles, not long after the excessive wet period, it turned extremely dry and a severe drought resulted. But certain practices that had been done by farmers were abandoned when the climate “changed” to wet, and these methods remained in play, allowing the drying soil to easily blow away. This resulted in the huge dust storms in the region. This process fed itself until the drought finally ended and conditions improved with time.

    1. Man stripped the land and what would have been a drought that had undoubtedly occurred many times before, turned into a disaster. The drought may well have been nature and it could be that nature would have handled it if man had not interfered. Lesson to me is that nature is cyclical. When man interferes in the large way that he does, we interfere with the natural process or cycles. We cannot keep changing the order of things to suit ourselves. This is a perfect example of what we are doing today.

      http://www.history.com/topics/dust-bowl

      1. And we cannot keep believing that our destruction has no affect. As it was then is as is it now

  17. So far socked in clouds here. Still a nice day as it’s warmer than yesterday but I’ll take yesterday as the pick of the weekend.

  19. Cooler in Boston than earlier this morning. Feels like a sea breeze. Also feels like fall. I’m fine with it, so long as it doesn’t rain or look depressing.

    On my long, Sunday run I noticed significant positive changes in vegetation in the Esplanade Park and also along the river on the Cambridge side. Much greener than last year. Grass is benefiting from the rain, as are the trees. They looked sad last year. Depleted. This year everything looks healthier.

  20. I dunno TK, it’s 1:30 and I ain’t seeing no hint of sky cover change.
    Probably about 6:30 this evening when everyone’s ready to come inside.

  21. Glorious sunny day here today in Nantucket with just some high thin cirrus clouds. The better of the two days down here. Took a nice bike ride out to Madaket Beach where we are now. It’s maybe 60 so sweatshirt weather with the breeze, but absolutely beautiful.

  22. Let today be a lesson.
    A typical late spring day, with weather varying by region. Funny how that happens.

  23. The sun was out for about 4-5 hours here. Looks like it may be gone for good. Such is life, but I know I am required to love New England even though on the whole the weather in April and May generally stinks!

  24. The sky looks like it’s going to open up anytime now…and I don’t mean in a good way.

  25. Cloudy day here in Wrentham, but the temperatures are comfortable enough. Can’t complain too much. Cookouts should go off just fine 🙂

    I can’t get over how great the imagery from GOES-16 is. Go to this link (you can play around with number of frames to display), and you’ll see various sources of our cloud cover today.

    http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=newengland-02-24-1

  26. I’ve never seen so many people traumatized by cloud shadows and near to slightly below normal temperatures.

    This is a general observation, not specific to here.

  27. 1. Thanks for the Link WX, great read.
    2. There has been an increase in extremes all over the USA and the rest of the world.
    3. Do not say we do not have adequate data, when would that be? When its to late to fix it, i for one do not want that.
    4. Climate data shows that there has always been variation and changes due to solar activity and increasing and decreasing green house gases.
    5. When did we see a major spike starting? The industrial revolution. The trend ever since has been an increase with dips in the mean line.
    6. Weakening jet stream, weakening Gulf stream will alter our climate, you can not just look at one extreme but if the extremes are becoming more normal, then ya have a problem.
    7. Do not tell me the climate predictions based on models are iffy or wrong, because what they usually do is run it a bunch of times, take the mean prediction, make that the max and make a range from that down to the lowest possible temperature. Every time, it has gone above what the mean line or max line was/is. They are more accurate than weather models.

  28. Tough weekend so far in Provincetown.
    Major fire in local restaurants and this was just posted by the Provincetown PD:

    And the rescue work continues!

    Just before 2pm, we received a 911 call about several people in the water along the West End Breakwater. It was learned that as a result of the astronomically high tides several people became stranded by the high tide after it washed over in great depths over parts of the breakwater rocks as people were leaving. This scenic footpath is a popular walking route to Long Point.

    Provincetown Police, Provincetown Fire, Provincetown EMS & Rescue personnel responded along with the Provincetown Harbormaster, Flyer’s Boatyard Water Shuttle and a vessel from United States Coast Guard Station Provincetown.

    In total 44 people were evacuated by partner boats and 5 people were treated by EMS crews at the scene and at staging areas.

  29. Clouds held tough here all day. Boooo
    Never saw the sun. Did get to 70 though. Dew point is 59, so it does feel a tad humid. Kinda nice, actually.

  30. Clouds and sun down here today, no complaints from me. Now, just need to keep it dry next Saturday for graduation festivities.

    1. Me too, Sue. Graduation indoors Saturday morning in gym without AC. No heat, low dew point, please!

    2. Kids were in marshfield and scituate today and said it was nice and sunny. Glad for those at the shore.

  31. Although it was cloudy, it was a perfectly nice day. In fact I am HAPPY it was cloudy
    as Mr. OS. accompanied me fishing this afternoon. I was proud of her as she laned
    9 largemouth bass and one really nice Brown Trout. I only managed 7 largemouth, but
    one was quite big. Here is a sample (please excuse my ugly puss!)

    Mrs. OS fish:

    http://imgur.com/a/bVa4c

    My Fish

    http://imgur.com/a/jOb0K

    I sure look like Grandpa, but sans Grand Children. 😀

    2. The men around were awfully jeal0us of Mrs. OS and wanted to know how she was catching all of those fish. She knows what she is dong and is very good at it.

    3. Although I think you look very distinguished, being a grand or just looking like a grand to me is the highest honor of all

  32. JP Dave, is the spot where you fished on the Dover/Needham line? Looks like it from the picture. As a kid I lived in Needham in the early 70s, very close to that spot on the Charles where a lot of fishermen and women would haul in fish.

    1. Nope. That was South Natick.

      However, I often hit the river in Needham right below the Dam there, which is not far from the Dover line. 😀 I lived in Needham as a kind and my Grand Father first took me fishing there.

    2. Certainly better than a Sunny day, although I have caught some of my
      biggest fish on a bright sunny afternoon. There is no hard and fast rule, however
      I certainly prefer cloudy days OR early morning or evening, but I’ll go whenever there is time, even in the middle of a sunny afternoon. In our area of the country and since I generally fish rivers, I can always find shade where the fish will
      still be active.

  34. My Weekly Outlook: https://stormhqblog.wordpress.com/2017/05/29/weekly-outlook-may-29-june-4-2017/

    Next Sunday is interesting – the GFS has it sunny and warm, and holds the next system off until Monday. Canadian and ECMWF both have Sunday damp and quite cool. Since the GFS has been hot garbage for a while now, I’m leaning towards the cool/damp scenario.

    100 degrees today at Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport (http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?wfo=fgz&sid=KFXE&num=72). 1st ever 100-degree reading in South Florida in May. To get 100 in South Florida in any month, you need a really dry airmass. Dewpoints were in the upper 50s/lower 60s there today. Once the seabreeze kicked in, dewpoints jumped to the 70s, but the temp didn’t drop that quickly. Looks like another hot day down there for Monday before they “cool off”.

  35. The update will be delayed for a few hours, not because of any problems, but I am heading out early to be at all 4 parts of Woburn’s Memorial Day parade & ceremonies today. Other than graduation day next Sunday (which I hope the GFS is right about despite its recent performance), this is Nate’s final event with the high school band, and Memorial Day has always been important to me.

    Will update blog when I return midday!

    Refer to SAK’s update for now. I generally agree with him there (just hope the Sunday leaning is not the right way). 😛

    2. The 00z Euro (which hadn’t started yet when I wrote my forecast), now has Sunday dry and mild. Not quite as warm as the GFS, but mild. It holds the rain & cool temps off until Monday.

      It also spares most of eastern Mass from the rain today with one batch clipping the south coast and the other staying well N+W. The latest HRRR brings showers to most of the region, with amounts stay light, and everything is all done by about 6-7pm, so you could still do some grilling for dinner (unless you’ll be at work like me).

        1. The western bubble of showers is moving more east than north. By early to mid-afternoon, we’re all in it.

          1. It’s not that the Western slug is moving more East, but rather that the Western slug has a Southern
            extension to the rain, albeit not all that wide.

            We shall see. 😀

  37. Nothing here in Brockton yet.

    From Joe Bastardi this morning:

    “the last 3 times when water was this cool off New England in May were 2005,2007,2008, they also had wet April and Mays in New England, but the following Junes were actually warm”

    Using my Lowell data as confirmation:

    April 2005 +3.0, +0.35″
    May 2005 -6.2, +1.52″
    June 2005 +1.9, -1.18″

    April 2007 -3.3, +4.59″
    May 2007 +1.3, +1.27″
    June 2007 -1.0, -1.32″

    April 2008 +1.2, +0.24″
    May 2008 -3.0, -1.29″
    June 2008 +0.2, +0.66″

    Bastardi can be good at times, but he likes to make a lot of claims that don’t hold up, and this is one of them.

    1. He’s very inconsistent. Seems to post things more about what he wants it to be like rather than what it actually is like.

  38. Quick peak at 12z NAM for Wednesday severe parameters pretty much are where the SPC has the marginal risk. I am not feeling it for thunderstorms.

  39. Saw your comment on 00z ECMWF SAK. I haven’t looked at anything yet. As for Sunday next week my wish is for dry and it doesn’t have to be too warm. Just would love to get that grad ceremony in without weather issues. 🙂

  40. Aiming for update to be done by 1.

    I’m at the 4th and final phase of Woburn’s Memorial Day ceremonies now.

  41. The temperature is going DOWN today. Now down to 51 BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!

    This blows chunks!!!!

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