10:41AM
Sometimes cold fronts that look like they want to chug through and clean out the air just run out of gas as they come in, and this one has done just that, probably partly due to a disturbance that went by yesterday and bent the air flow around a little bit more from the southwest, which is slowing the forward progress of the front. And even when this front gets by us this evening, it will be set to return as a warm front later Monday, only to have another cold front try to push through on Tuesday. What this means is that the weather will be on the unsettled side (though not bad all the time) for the next 3 days.
High pressure should give a very nice day or 2 at midweek, before heat makes a run at us again at the end of the week. More about the heat threat in The Week Ahead blog tonight.
In the mean time, the Boston Area weather is expected to pan out pretty close to this…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A few episodes of scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Warm and still humid. High 80 to 85 except 75 to 80 at the beaches. Wind N to NE up to 10 mph.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Mild and less humid. Low 60 to 65. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers in the afternoon. High 70 to 75 coast 75 to 80 inland. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Mild and more humid. Low 65 to 70. Wind S 5 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny and hazy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid. High 80 to 85. Wind S to SW 10 to 20 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 82.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 86.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 67. High 89.
Thanks TK for the update. I remember back in the days of Don Kent cold fronts would immediately put an end to most any hot spells and bring us that nice “Summer Polar Air” from Canada for a few days. Nowadays these fronts stall and take a good 24-48 hours before any relief is felt. I guess it is a new “younger, hippier, lazier” generation of cold fronts?…lol.
More HHH temps coming next weekend and beyond…break out the record books once again? 🙁
I also notice Alaska has been experiencing well below normal temps for quite some time. I wish they would share “some” of that Polar Air with us northern tier of states.
There are several long-running regimes in weather. There was a time when thunderstorms seemed to come through followed by immediate complete clearing. Now, and for several years, we seem to get a lot of residual high & mid level cloud cover behind these storms. But it all depends on the particular setup, when it comes down to it. We just tend to see them cluster in groups at times. Not really sure if there is a clear reason for it that would be easy to come up with or explain, so we just use the term “regime” to cover it. 🙂
Briefly off the campground to visit and run errends………Looking back at Friday, I have never experienced the thickly shaded, damp ground woods of Myles Standish Forest to have 100F wind whipped heated air flowing thru it like Friday. It truly was intolerable out of the lake water and something I wont soon forget. Ironically, Friday night must have had lower humidity and with clear skies and light winds, we experienced radiational cooling which gave us our most comfortable overnight of the week. Last night (Sat night) was back to stuffy, humid conditions. Had a thunderstorm yesterday with a lot of lightning, but modest rain. Looking forward to more reasonable weather conditions this week. Have a good one all.
Tom, I hope you continue to have a good time. I haven’t been camping since my days as a Boy Scout…a looong time ago. 🙂
Thunderstorm Index just at 1 since I am not expecting severe weather.
Philip I would hope this heat wave will be the worst of the summer but who knows. Looking at the Farmers’ Almanac they are calling for hot and sultry the beginning of August and later in August temperatures that could approach 100 degrees. I can’t wait to see what the 2012 says about our upcoming winter. I hope they are calling for a few good Noreater’s!
Jimmy, the CPC from yesterday continues the heat for us. It will be interesting if it changes with time but I have a bad feeling it won’t anytime soon.
Maybe The Farmer’s Almanac will be right about something when call for hot and sultry the first part of August. I just read Joe Joyce’s blog and he said looking to August a little trough should develop over the Northeast keeping any big time heat away through the 10th. Will see.
Beware of little troughs. They can easily get blasted away by big ridges. 😉
You mean you are hoping they DON’T call for Nor’easters which would increase our chance of getting a few..hahaha! The O.F.A. should be out in a few weeks.
Yes that is correct!!!! It will be fun to read and see what the predictions bare.
Big difference now from just 2 hrs ago in JP. You can feel the difference big time
and amen to that!!
Any ideas for whether we get an el nino winter, or a la nina winter?
Won’t be La Nina, that’s pretty certain.
Just looked at a graph, seems the ONI is going up quite rapidly, was at -.2 for April, May, and June, almost neutral, still a weak la nina pattern. Now i would have to figure it’s around .2, so now a weak el nino pattern, which is probably going to strengthen to a moderate to strong el nino winter.
Got this graph from this, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
go to page 26
Correction:
Tables are pages 24-26, graphs are pages 28 and 29.
Anyone know how much snow we got in the winter of 76-77? This year’s ONI is resembling 1976’s ONI.
Don’t know about the snow but the temperatures that winter for Boston was 35.4 degrees so it was a colder than normal winter.
Reading Brett Anderson’s blog last week and the EURO model for early winter is calling for normal temperatures and drier than normal conditions. He said a weak la nina may develop but will see about that.
Looking at a graph, and not the pattern of a current weakening la nina, the forecast is showing for the la nina to begin to restrengthen during the fall-winter. Not sure how accurate those forecasts are though.
It seems to me that we look at computer models more for the winter than during the summer – unless there is a big tropical storm around. Is there a reason for that?
I can only speak for myself but I look at them as much in Summer as I do in Winter. We’re just forecasting different kinds of weather. It’s a little easier to get caught up in the exact track of a low pressure area for a precipitation type issue during the winter season and not so much the exact track in summertime, when overall systems are weaker, we don’t deal with rain/snow lines, and we’re just looking for where the best chance of showers/storms may be on a given day. So I think that in itself lends to less chatter about models and comparisons of them, day to day. You may hear more about model trends when trying to forecast the large scale pattern over a number of days, but that is true any time of the year.
Rainshine we just don’t get too many big storms in the summer, much easier to predict nice vs stormy weather.
Thanks, Hadi – I figured it was something like that.
Within the past hour, here in Sudbury, anyway – the air has really dried out – nice breeze out of the east. Really nice!
rainshine – I was just sitting on the deck thinking how lovely it is – however the breeze hasn’t reached us and the air is fairly still. Can you kick a little of it a few miles this way please 🙂
Where r u Vickie? Here in JP it is so pleasant.
Vicki:) sorry for the spelling error.
Hi hadi. No worry for the spelling error :). I’m in framingham about 2-3 miles from rain shine. And right after I posted the breeze arrived. It is a perfect summer night.
So I think we should plan a meet up for us before winter. Who’s up for it? I am thinking something off of 95? Legacy place in Dedham?
I’ll go wherever, and I’m going to invite Barry depending on when it is.