82 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

1. Good afternoon and thank you.

   Really chilly today. NOT liking it one bit. thank you very much.

   1. I was outside much of the time from 8 to almost noon. I can certainly feel it. 😉

2. Thanks TK.

   Lousy morning in Nantucket with pouring rain, wind, and temps near 50. Waited an hour out in the rain in the ferry line with our bikes and luggage and are soaked. Boat is at capacity and there is no where to sit unless you would like to experience a simulated hurricane on the top deck. We are standing inside next to the stairwell. So I guess today is my day to bitch about the weather 🙂

   Dave – great pictures you posted yesterday. Those are some huge fish you both caught. I’m impressed.

   1. Thanks Mark, it was a nice afternoon of fishing. Frankly, pretty amazing considering it is a Heavily fished location. I can’t take my wife to my more hidden fishing spots as she has a bad back and can’t walk too far and She
      is rightfully worried about the ticks. Thus this spot had to do, else we don’t go.
      There is something special about this spot in the high water. As soon as the water recedes, there isn’t much to the fishing. An occasional sun fish is about it. 😀

      So sorry you had such a rough time with the ferry. It will be over soon.
      I hope that none of you get sick. Last Boat ride I took to block Island, I
      barfed the whole way.

3. Thanks dry here

4. Sprinkles here

   Thank you, TK.

   Thank you to those who gave their all, to those who continue to sacrifice for our great country and to their families

   1. Amen

5. Fire is on. We have now used as much oil in April and May as we did in December and January

   1. Very mild Dec & Jan pattern is very similar to a seasonable April & cool May pattern, hence the nearly equal oil usage.

      Seasonably mild weather upcoming and the next cooler spell will probably be unable to result in any heating demand.

      1. I can say honestly that I have never had those two months equal and I have also never used heat in may. We all know I am a heat miser. As I recall, last November I may have only turned heat on a couple of times. If I checked oil deliveries, I would not be surprised to see that nov,dec,Jan were not much more than April and May. Must be that season shift someone keeps mentioning 🙂

         1. Note….I am NOT complaining. I’m just making what I feel is an interesting observation. I like nothing better than sitting in front of a fire with a good book :). Or, as we were doing earlier, watching Pirates Dead Mans chest.

6. 52 and sheet drizzle here. Just peachy.
   Temps near to below normal into Mid June. I’m sure the residents of Massachusetts are excited at he prospect.

   1. The ones that don’t like it can take a vacation to somewhere the weather is better. I’m not stopping them. 😛

      1. And I shall. In 3 weeks. I’ll be gone till July 5th. Hopefully by then it’s warmer. Somehow I doubt it.

         1. Yup. It’ll probably still be in the upper 40s to lower 50s on July 5. Exactly right.

            1. 🙂

7. Still 51 here. Brutal, just brutal.

   1. After the morning out remembering the fallen heroes, it’s a great afternoon to do inside projects. 🙂

      1. Projects around the house and coding. 😀

         1. 😀

8. Trivia Quiz.

   What is Eureka?

   A. A remote weather station
   B. A name for a 2017 hurricane.
   C. A newly launched weather satellite
   D. Anaridis Rodriguez’s (WBZ anchor) puppy

   Answer later today.

   1. A is the answer. Another met I know did some time up there as a civilian met. Population was/is 9!!

   2. A …another met who is a friend of someone I know …….. 😉 😉

      1. 🙂 Nope. This person is dxer like me. Lives in Ontario.

         1. Awwww and I tried to cover up my source 🙂 🙂 😉

   3. It’s a vacuum Cleaner if my memory serves me correctly.

      1. Laughing out loud funny. This weather seems to bring out everyone sense of humor !!

         1. That is true. Though I never really lose mine. 😀

9. ECMWF is back to the cool and wet Sunday idea, mainly south of Route 2.

   1. Well, the book I am reading is number 5 in a series of 19 so bring it on!!

   2. Saw that. I guess we’ll just have to see. 🙂

10. Back to TK for a few. WHW will be back soon.

11. A wonderful, balmy, beautiful Memorial Day in North Reading — 51 degrees and the heat is on. Sounds like a pattern. What a stinker May has been.

    1. Same here. Beautiful stinken rotten day!

12. Mother Nature is just punishing everybody for complaining too much, by giving you more of what you all hate – which is pretty much everything. Well, that makes her work easy!

    1. Now that goes against your nature. Yup, Mother nature doesn’t like
       our complaining so she is punishing us. Makes perfect sense. 😀 😀 😀
       Like she gives a shit. 😀

13. Thanks TK. Definitely my least favorite kind of weather today. It is what it is I guess. Some years we get into a summer pattern early on. This is not one of those years. It’s a cool, wet pattern, and has been for awhile, despite our interlude of record warmth earlier this month. And this pattern’s not going anywhere through 6/10.

    1. Hey at least you recognize it for what it is. Most of the population doesn’t understand it. 😉

       Stay tuned for an editorial that is definitely needed and will probably cost me a few readers. Oh well. 😀

       Won’t happen today, but soon. Probably next 2 days a couple extra posts. One will feature a summer outlook, the other will be an editorial.

       1. Come on now. People understand it. Your just being a contrarian. We get it. We live near a cold ocean, a cold Canada, etc etc. Warm weather doesn’t get here on a consistent basis until the 3rd week of June. The warm season here is short. We get it. Still doesn’t make it any easier to take 52 and drizzle on Memorial Day.

          1. Nah. I’m being a realist. The rest of the people are being cranky.

             We could be in drought still. We’re not.

             We could be having major flooding. We’re not.

             We could have a freak late-season snowstorm. We’re not.

             We could have a major heatwave which would distress many people. We’re not.

             We could have an outbreak of severe storms with major damage. We’re not.

             We could have mild to warm sunshine, dry air, and light winds. We’re not.

             We could have a weekend that was dry 2 out of 3 days and ended on a chilly and wet note. We are.

             Well, 6 out of 7 ain’t bad. 😀

             1. Rain is ok with me. It’s the 50 degrees I object too mostly. I hate the cold. And especially this time of year. Yea, I know it happens, but I still hate it.

                1. This will be the first cooler than normal May in 9 years. I guess it was bound to happen eventually. 🙂

                   1. That’s why I fear for summer. It’s my favorite season and I’m afraid it could be a bust. I’m like Dave is for winter. When his snow doesn’t materialize, he’s disappointed. Same for me and a good warm, and occasionally hot summer.

                      1. A bust is a bad forecast. But I don’t think my forecast of near to above normal temps (not as hot as last year) and above normal precip (certainly wetter than last year) will be a bust. Either that or myself, NOAA, Barry Burbank, Judah Cohen, and Harvey Leonard are all going down in flames together. 😉

             2. I agree. A contrarian you are not.

                I’ll repeat what a local, incredibly talented photographer, said with regard to a picture she took on a recent rainy, foggy day and am paraphrasing

                She said she sees things differently in the rain.

                For what it is worth, I believe you also feel things differently in different types of weather. There is beauty in everything and it isn’t hard to find if you take the time to look and feel

14. So for the month of May there have been 9 days with a high temperature higher than the average, 19 days with a high temperature lower than the average and one day that hit the high temp average right on the nose. I understand there are patterns, some good and some bad. Unfortunately it has mostly been a bad one this month and a lousy Memorial Day pretty much sums up May. Hopefully by mid-June we will start to see some decent weather around here.

    1. That is where you lose me. I don’t understand what a bad pattern is. I think we have all seen bad in our lives and this just ain’t even close.

       1. Sorry, from now on everything is great. There is never any bad weather ever and I will praise all in power for a 51-degree, rainy Memorial Day.

       2. A bad pattern is when it’s constantly cool, cloudy and pretty much crappy. That’s what May has been. A bad weather pattern.

          1. You missed the point.

             It may not be a pattern that meets your expectations which is absolutely understandable. A blanket statement that it is bad is what I had trouble understanding. I don’t think it is bad so does that make it good? Nope. Good and bad are all relative.

          2. Heh heh heh, Mel, Mel, Mel.

             1. See how that works. You feel better now. Always interesting To see what gets people down and then picks them back up

15. Interesting to see what the monthly avg comes in. I’m sure that 3 day heat wave will scue the average. We could have gone for a nice cold departure for May. It wast 2005, but it could have been close.
    Someone else on another blog had a good observation. NASA will come out in June with the proverbial hottest May on record since Christ was a mess cook. Yet SE Canada and New England will be the lone heat sink once again.

16. Raining and car thermometer down to 49 passing through Taunton on 495. 🙂

    1. I would like to see if we can get a day in the upper 40s to lower 50s in early June like the 2 that we had in 2015. That was cool (pun intended). 😉

       1. I’ve tried to wipe my that from my memory, but I can’t. Had to cancel a golf tourney fundraiser on June 1st that year. Miserable.

          1. Must have been more than rain…..never heard of cancelling for rain

             1. It was pouring that morning so hard you couldn’t see and half the course was flooded

                1. Superintendent deemed it unplayable. It drained by mid morning, but the damage was done, they had another tourney that afternoon and we had to reschedule.

                2. Odd. Mac golfed his entire life and never had one cancelled. But it could easily have been at a course that wasn’t set up for runoff. Of course if it were cancelled it would have been rescheduled.

17. Participated in our local Memorial Day Parade this morning. Yes, it was chilly and drizzly but that pales in comparison to what our fallen soldiers had endured. Tomorrow is a new day and perhaps we see some sun. I will just be grateful for another day should God grant it. The weather is what it is and while I get that people are disappointed in the lousy “kickoff to summer”, there are so many more things to complain about. Hope everyone had a great long weekend despite the cool temps.

    1. Amen.

       On the Sutton FB site many commented that they would be at the parade rain or shine since those that were being honored also honored us by doing the same.

       Btw saw you parade photos and love them.

18. To some folks, a “bad” pattern might be a string of very low dew point days. I know someone that gets migraines and bloody noses when this happens.

19. A few thoughts on the weather current and upcoming…

    This year’s Memorial Day Weekend while featuring some variety (2 dry days with sun and many clouds followed by an overcast, cool, eventually damp day) was not as fickle as last year’s, when our 90 degree Saturday was followed by a dank/drizzly/chilly Sunday post back-door front, and then the humidity and rain showers were around for Monday.

    Heading out of this particular holiday weekend, I see lots of clouds and 60s for Tuesday, and a line of showers/storms making a run into far western New England but dying out long before it can reach eastward due to late timing and stable air in place. When we get to Wednesday we should get more sun and therefore more heating, and a line of showers/storms that fires up again over NY and VT should make it further east than Tuesday’s, bringing the threat further into southern New England. Don’t go into it thinking widespread severe weather – just thinking that some storms will survive into at least central MA and southern NH later Wednesday. Will fine-tune as always.

    Pick of the week if you like dry/warm weather: Thursday. Friday will be somewhat unsettled as a front moves in.

    I’m going to leave the weekend alone for now other than what I stated above. I have the leaning toward fair weather both days but we’ve seen enough evidence and already knowing model limitations making it easy to say there is nothing that can be said with any certainty.

20. NEWS FLASH!

    The first day of Summer is June 21.
    Summer did NOT begin in February.

    1. Well actually it sort of did when we got those 70F plus days in late February …

       1. Those would be some cold summer days. If we had highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s and lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s like we did in February, that would be well below normal for any summer day.

21. Next weekend will be an interesting forecast, because there will be a lot of players on the field. Between about Friday and next Wednesday, I would be surprised if we make it through without a significant rain event (or two). We could see one or more northern stream lows, a Plains storm, and building tropical moisture in the Gulf of Mexico all interacting. The timing is anyone’s guess right now. It’s certainly possible we can steal at least one, if not two, dry weekend days. But the odds may be against us.

    Over the next 15 days, I could easily see scenarios where much of the region exceeds 3″ of rain, which is a hefty total. But uncertainty abounds for now.

22. Well, a 51F overcast and showery day is not pretty, but thank goodness we didn’t get what Moscow had to deal with:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40086616

23. If it is going to remain cool for the foreseeable future, we might as well break some records. I believe we broke a few on June 1st and 2nd in 2015. Perhaps we can do `better’ than that this year some time during the 1st week of June. Maybe throw in a wet snowflake or two.

24. Good blog by Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan on the Wed thunderstorm potential.
    http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/stories/Strong-Thunderstorm-Threat-Wednesday-425185134.html

25. To find “summer” today, a plane ride to the NORTH for 2 or 3 hours to the eastern shores of Hudson Bay at latitude 55N would have brought sunshine and 80F temps, some 25F to 30F above average.

    It may take another 10 to 15 days, but in my opinion, appreciate the cool. The hemisphere overall is warm. Snowcover in eastern Canada has disappeared very far north and Hudson Bay is losing ice.

    I have a sense that from mid/late June through to early September, we’ll be longing for a cool day here and there to have a break from a lot of either warm/humid or hot/humid weather.

26. Answer to Quiz.
    What is Eureka?

    A. A remote weather station
    B. A name for a 2017 hurricane.
    C. A newly launched weather satellite
    D. Anaridis Rodriguez’s (WBZ anchor) puppy

    The answer is A. Eureka as I knew it was a city in northern CA.

27. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02B/02B_floater.html

    Bay of Bengal tropical system. Shape of coastline looks like it is prone to big storm surges.

    1. They are. Another place I saw get pounded several times during my tropical forecasting days.

28. And of course, a wind storm (which was probably a derecho) hits Moscow and is labeled “hurricane” and the “worst storm in over 100 years”.

    “Hurricane”? Wrong. It wasn’t a hurricane.

    “Worst storm in over 100 years”? By what standards? Loss of life? Wind speed? Arial coverage?

    This is what is “wrong” with weather reporting and its rampancy on social media. I don’t need to explain this to anyone here, right? I don’t think so. We may jab back and forth about things but I trust you are all smart enough to know this stuff by now.

    As I mentioned on a social media site earlier, the collection of videos of this evening, which was labeled “apocalypse” (also vastly overdone), was showing things vulnerable to the wind, such as poorly constructed or poorly anchored objects, tents, lightweight barriers, non-reinforced fences, etc., being toppled or damaged or “blown away” by these winds. Well, it makes sense doesn’t it?

    Now, you have millions of people thinking something unprecedented happened. And the officials are calling it “hurricane winds”. They meant to say “hurricane force winds” and from the best info I have, and observations of the video, these winds were not hurricane force anyway.

    1. The storms in Moscow produced winds as high as 28 m/s at the airport, which equates to 62 mph. They also reported hail at the airport.

       UUEE 291500Z 21005MPS 9999 SCT050CB 15/13 Q1002 R24R/290245 R24L/290251 TEMPO VRB20MPS 2000 TSRA SQ
       UUEE 291430Z 23004MPS 180V260 9999 SCT050CB 15/13 Q1002 R24R/290245 R24L/290251 TEMPO VRB22MPS 2000 TSRAGR SQ
       UUEE 291400Z 24006MPS 9999 -SHRA SCT050CB 15/13 Q1003 R24R/290245 R24L/290251 TEMPO VRB22MPS 2000 TSRAGR SQ
       UUEE 291330Z 24006MPS 9999 -SHRA BKN050CB 14/13 Q1003 R24R/290245 R24L/290251 TEMPO VRB22MPS 2000 TSRAGR SQ
       UUEE 291300Z 27009G14MPS 9000 -TSRA BKN050CB 14/13 Q1004 R24R/290245 R24L/290251 TEMPO VRB27MPS 2000 TSRAGR SQ
       UUEE 291230Z 27018G28MPS 9000 -TSRA BKN050CB 16/12 Q1002 R24R/150057 R24L/150057 TEMPO VRB27MPS 2000 TSRAGR SQ
       UUEE 291200Z 25010MPS 9999 SCT050CB 24/11 Q1000 R24R/150057 R24L/150057 TEMPO VRB20MPS 2000 TSRA GR SQ
       UUEE 291130Z 24014G20MPS 9999 SCT050CB 24/10 Q1000 R24R/150057 R24L/290151 TEMPO 2000 TS GR
       UUEE 291100Z 24009G14MPS 9999 SCT050CB 24/12 Q1000 R24R/290145 R24L/290151 TEMPO 2000 TS GR
       UUEE 291030Z 25009MPS 9999 -SHRA SCT043CB 22/12 Q1001 R24R/CLRD62 R24L/CLRD62 NOSIG

       1. Probably should have included the decoded ob instead:

          Text: UUEE 291230Z 27018G28MPS 9000 -TSRA BKN050CB 16/12 Q1002 R24R/150057 R24L/150057 TEMPO VRB27MPS 2000 TSRAGR SQ
          Temperature: 16.0°C ( 61°F)
          Dewpoint: 12.0°C ( 54°F) [RH = 77%]
          Pressure (altimeter): 29.59 inches Hg (1002.0 mb)
          Winds: from the W (270 degrees) at 40 MPH (35 knots; 18.0 m/s) gusting to 62 MPH (54 knots; 27.8 m/s)
          Visibility: 6 sm ( 9 km)
          Ceiling: 5000 feet AGL
          Clouds: broken clouds at 5000 feet AGL
          Weather: -TSRA (light rain associated with thunderstorm(s))

          1. Thanks!

29. Dawn breaks on yet another miserable facata May day in Boston. MISERABLE!

    Yes, I know it happens. I still don’t like it. I have hated it since I was a kid.
    I can remember playing Little League baseball in this crap and hitting the ball only
    to have it sting the hell out of my hands. I HATE IT! Always did. Always will.
    I can be lectured until the cows come home on climo and the fact that this shit happens
    in NE. Still don’t have to like it. I like the rest of the year, just not April and May.

    Oh and yes I remember those June days. I also remember a year in the late 60s I believe where we were stuck in a miserable pattern like this that did not break
    until the beginning of July. I remember going an ocean beach (Manomet I believe) on July 4th and the water temp was still 54 Degrees*!@#*!@^#*(&!*@(#&*!&@*(&*(#&
    So yes I know it happens and I still do not like it.

30. Good Morning and Happy Birthday, Shotime!!!

31. New post (the forecast one).

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