Tuesday Forecast

93 Comments

8:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 30-JUNE 3)
A 2-stage weather transition takes place during the next 3 days brought about by the passage of 2 cold fronts. The first one coming through tonight will have initiated showers/thunderstorms north and west of southern New England but they will run into air that is stable and has been fairly cool and lacking sun’s heating. The second one will arrive Wednesday evening and will send another batch of showers/thunderstorms toward the region, which may survive further east due to some solar heating and a more unstable atmosphere that results. Behind this front comes a wonderful day to start June on Thursday, but by the time the second day of the new month arrives, another low pressure system will approach and bring some humidity along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. This system may be slow to get through the region so improvement may be slow to come on Saturday – something to watch as the week goes on.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 58-63 coast, 64-69 interior. Wind light SE to S.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers mainly west and north of Boston in the evening. Lows 53-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 63-68 South Coast, 68-73 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms especially west and north of Boston in the evening. Lows 58-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts early, shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-70 Cape Cod, 71-76 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 70s except 60s South Coast.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the morning. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs in the 70s except 60s South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 4-8)
An unsettled weather pattern is expected during this period. That does not mean rain every day all day. Will be watching for an approaching low early in the period that may keep much of its moisture to the south of the region, and another system mid to late period. Temperatures near to below normal on average.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 9-13)
Pattern will likely feature temperatures near to below normal and at least a couple threats of wet weather heading toward mid June.

93 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Another month, same as the last Month!

    So when does this crap break? 6/10? 6/15? 6/20? 6/25? 6/30? 7/4?
    Labor Day?

    If anyone thinks I am liking this, they are nuts. If anyone expects me to change, they
    are even more nuts.

    1. I’d never expect you to change, Dave. 😛

      This pattern will break down in “hints” then suddenly. It has the potential to be a surprise break (earlier or later than the June 20 date I am going to throw out there). Does that mean yesterday’s weather is going to be repeated over and over? No. It hasn’t been so far either. We’ve just have more clouds than sun, and precipitation above normal with temps below normal for the spring overall. This will continue pretty much for the remainder of spring (astronomical spring, that is). What is not likely to break is the pattern of near to above normal precipitation. What is likely to break is the pattern of below normal temperatures, flipping to near to above for the summer. But I’m getting ahead of myself. Going to do a summer outlook post today or tomorrow.

      1. Ok, we have an “approximate date”. I thank you very much for that. Some years this pattern breaks early, some years very late with most years in between.

        It’s just frustrating is all.

        Hey, I didn’t even complain all last week. 😀

        1. The date is based on how I think the pattern goes. Last time I tossed out a date, the pattern changed about a week earlier than I thought it would. Usually, it changes later. We’ll see.

  2. I’m with you. Again, it may not be a significant departure from normal and we have zero control over what it’s going to do, but we don’t have to like this weather and I, for one, do not. Sunlight is a lot more beneficial than some people realize.

    1. Absolutely! Good source of Vitamin D, not to mention that Sunshine is
      far better for mental health than day after day of cloudy, rainy.drizzly weather.
      If anyone is prone to depression this type of weather does NOT help.

      Sure we need a rainy day here and there, but there are limits as to what
      humans can tolerate.

    2. This isn’t about 2 sides that are competing. I don’t think anyone actually understands what I’m saying.

      I’ll fix this later in a separate post. Though it may be a fruitless effort.

  3. Good Morning.

    Repeat from this morning on yesterday’s blog.

    Happy Birthday, Shotime!!!!!

  4. You people do realize that I’m well aware of the benefits sunlight has and the fact that there are people who suffer mentally and physically from the lack of light and/or sun.

    But knowing that does not change the facts. Sorry. 🙂

    You can choose to complain, or choose to cope. It’s up to you.

    Onward…

    1. Coping vs complaining. Interesting. TK, this seems to be your pet project, but I am here to tell you than Complaining is how some of us actually do cope. Hope you understand that and do not hold it against us. We are NOT complaining about you or your forecasts. Perhaps it reflects upon our personalities and make up, but so be it. We can’t help it. We feel the way we do. BUT, we all
      understand that there is nothing we can do about it. 😀

      We march on….

      1. Fair enough. People are free to post what they want so long as they are not directly insulting anyone. Complaints included.

        2. I do not wish to ever insulate some one or be demeaning in any way. I should expect to reprimanded or banned from
          the blog should I do so.

          1. Oh you’re not going anywhere.

            If you notice, I never instruct anyone to quit complaining. I just have my counters to it. 😉

      2. I read your comment a bit ago, Dave, and took time to think before responding. We do know that is not something I always do 🙂 I love the dialog you have opened up. That TK has opened up. Understanding and respecting the differences in others is an important part of life. Thank you for helping with that.

        So in the interest of continuing the discussion on this day when there is not much else to discuss………

        Being positive comes naturally to me for the most part but also requires some effort and some reminders to myself. I put things in buckets….not consciously. It is just how my mind works. I work harder turning the larger negatives into positives and tend to simply discount what are small to me as being part of life. Sometimes it is difficult to stay positive when there are lots of negatives floating around. But that is something I need to work on and I do enjoy challenging myself.

        The one thing you did say that I read several times and thought about the most is that there are limits to what humans can tolerate (paraphrasing). I have this unwavering belief that we are built to tolerate a whole lot more than we think we can when we are faced with it. Maybe I’m wrong, but I like to believe I’m not.

        Thank you for taking the time to explain your views. It is greatly appreciated.

        1. I think people need to remember now more than ever before is the the collective perception of just about everything impacted by social media to a degree we are probably not even aware of. There’s a media outlet local to Boston who’s weather app shows rain almost everyday no matter what. The content of the app often conflicts with their on air forecasts but no matter, rain everyday on the app will cause many people to click deeper into their other content which is exactly the draw app is supposed to generate. Seeing forecast icons of day after day of raindrops by itself is enough to cause a perception of “it’s never not raining.” I deal with the public all day almost everyday. Under maybe age 35 or so? the vast majority of the folks I see barely seem to look up from their phones for anything or anyone. It’s really scary how powerful the perceptions generated on that small screen can be.

          1. My views on the facata weather has
            ZERO to do with social media, the news or anything else but myself.

          2. 100% agree.

            I just saw a social media post about today being “another rainy day” when there is no rain falling anywhere in the region.

            It’s cloudy. But it’s not a rainy day. So your point is proven already.

          3. 🙂

            Love your comment. I applaud you for taking on social media. I’m just focusing on here. My head would spin if I tried to focus on a group as large as those on social media!! Maybe those are two more of my buckets. I hadn’t thought much about that.

            I am also chuckling because I approach a discussion of social media just as I do weather. There are tons of negatives but I tend to see the many positives. And now I’m laughing harder – at me and never at your or your comment – but you touched on another bucket I seem to have. I also think very positively about the millennials and their ability to parse information.

            Perhaps I am a hopeless pollyanna 🙂

            Thank you for the comment M.L.

            1. Thank you. I’m not saying social media or millennial’s are “bad” at all! I remember my father being incredulous at why anyone would walk around in public with headphones on when the Sony Walkman debuted in 1982! My brothers and I all wanted one! Remember the blue and orange foam ear pads on the headphones

              1. Now you have me laughing out loud. I am old enough to remember my parents saying we were all stuck in front of the TV watching Saturday morning cartoons and Boomtown 🙂

                And I do remember the foam ear pads!

                I am enjoying this conversation with all. Makes the day brighter!

        2. Wish I could be more positive. My nature, unfortunately tends to be quite negative. I always expect the worse. In my life, that generally is what always happens. I am conditioned to it. You know the old expression, the glass is 1/2 empty or 1/2 full. Well for me I always see the glass as totally empty. Sad perhaps, but true.

          For example take traffic lights. I know I am always going to hit a light RED. Almost always happens. I NEVER seem to catch a traffic light green. I sometimes count the lights and the number of reds. It is ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS 75% or more RED no matter what.
          It drives me nuts.

          My wife tries to reach me by saying that Traffic lights are just a part of driving. Roll with it. Well, I can’t.
          I start fuming, most especially when I need to be some place at a certain time.

          I call it: Traffic Light Pin Ball

          Hit a light RED. WAIT and WAIT some more. GO.
          hit the next light (sometimes 200 feet down the road)
          and WAIT some more. Light goes Green, start to GO
          and REPEAT and repeat and repeat all the way to the destination.

          1. Sometimes if you slow down between the two signals, even if it’s slightly below the speed limit, you can break the light cycle. Though people behind you may not be so quick to understand!

            1. I have the lights mastered through Milford center. If I can get the first one just right by doing exactly what you suggest, I go through all of them. It is now a game.

              But then if someone in front of me interferes, the air in my car turns green from my comments 🙂

              You actually touched on a real negative I have. Mac used to laugh when we drove through a mall or especially Wellesley. I spent most of the time repeating “I hate people.” Guess I just blew the Pollyanna comment to pieces.

              1. Good heavens….last time Mac drove us into Boston I swore we would never do it again. And he learned to drive in Rome. We stopped at a red light and the car behind us pulled out and passed us, went through the light blaring its horn. Not once but twice.

          3. One would think they would be better timed.
            Most in Boston are not. Some are, but even the ones that are get royally screwed up by Pedestrians. I see that on my route to and from work where there is an intersection near the Orange line. If I come by when a train has just left the station, oh boy! Walk signals all over the place extending the already piss-poor light cycle.

            We should at least have pedestrian foot
            bridges at least on the very busy intersections.

            Not sure what the answer is. Perhaps there is none.

            Best learn to roll, as difficult as that can be at times.

            1. Mac was without doubt the most patient man I have had the pleasure to know. I understand I am prejudice but there is not one person throughout his life who would tell you differently.

              That said, you just touched on what I think may have been one of maybe three pet peeves….he never understood why lights could not be timed. I figure if there is something he could not tolerate then there is no one who can be expected to tolerate it 🙂 🙂

  5. You know summer is getting closer (or at least you’re in late spring) when you can feel the solar warming through the stratus blanket. Love it. 🙂

  6. Thank you TK! Now I am not complaining but I sure hope the forecast changes for Saturday. 🙂

  7. I need the weather to be decent on day as thats the day i go down to nantucket. The ferries do not run if its to rough. I also would like to add i want it it to warm up. That ocean water is cold in the 50s and i need to get in the water first week of june

      1. Ok you two, so we are “overdo”.

        What probability would you place on a Hurricane making
        landfall in SNE? .1 or .2 OR higher like closer to .4 or .5

        Just curious, not trying to be an ass. 😀

        Personally, I’d give it .25

    1. Not asking for a prediction. Asking for a gut feeling on what the probability
      would be. We “should” be able to assign a number to that based on
      the Hurricane Season forecast and the 26 year gap. Yes, we are overdue, but
      that does not mean this is the year. Even so, there must be a probability
      we can assign.

      1. No, there isn’t. There are so many variables at play, that it impossible to predict where storms may form and when.

        This would be the equivalent of me asking you right now to tell me the odds that Xander Bogaerts hits a curveball into the left field seats for the Sox tonight. Sure, it’s a possibility, but you can’t place any odds on it actually happening.

          1. SAK is correct. Take it from 2 people who have been doing this for a long time.

            We can’t really assign a number that is worth anything more than a wild guess. This is how this science works.

            1. On this I’ll have to agree to disagree with Dave. Unless, of course, I misunderstood his question. I thought he asked for a “gut” feeling based on your knowledge, understanding it is simply a gut feeling.

              1. Not really. I was asking for a number, a probability specifically and I am told no can do.

                I’m a numbers guy and I like numbers and to assign numbers.
                It is mostly a strength, but when it comes to meteorology, I guess it isn’t.

                1. Ahhh – then I will have to agree to disagree with TK and SAK. I would love a gut feeling of there may or may not be one this season but can understand why a number is difficult. But I feel your pain. Sometimes a crystal ball is nice.

                2. oopss – not with TK and SAK but with you. I have been saying things backwards all day. Must be this FUKTAKAH (sp?) weather 😉

      2. We’d be able to say what kind of a feeling we have once we have a storm formed and we are reasonably certain we know the pattern upcoming, and how it will interact with said storm. We are “overdue” when you take into account the average period of time between storms. But even with that, we could go another quarter century before we see one. Not likely, but surely possible.

          1. We came extremely close to ending the landfall drought with Irene in 2011. If Irene took a track just 20 miles farther east, it would have interacted less with eastern NC, would not have barely made landfall in eastern NJ, and stayed over water that much longer. That likely would have made the difference between Irene passing right over NYC as a 75mph hurricane and what actually happened – a 65 mph tropical storm. 20 miles.

            These are the types of variables that can’t be accounted for, especially months in advance, which is why it is impossible to put a number on it.

            2. Excellent explanation. Thanks! I mean yes we can put a # on it, but it’s worthless. It makes more sense not to from a scientific standpoint, since we have too many variables that can make any # we choose be very inaccurate just like that.

  12. I am not feeling it for thunderstorms tomorrow. Maybe an isolated strong marginally severe storm across interior parts of SNE.

    1. I am here to change your mind, JimmyJames……although we need sun in order for that to happen so I will work on that bright thing in the sky to see if I can convince it to make an appearance!

    1. 7% probability of a hurricane, 2% probability of a major hurricane. That’s the long term average, but it appears “they” create a 2nd set of probabilities each season according to atmospheric factors leading into a season.

    2. Now there are some numbers. I don’t know how meaningful they are, but
      they are numbers. Thanks Tom.

      I have a feeling you are a numbers guy.

      1. I think they took the #of strikes (landfalls into a particular state) and divided by the period of years observed then multiplied by 100 to get a percent.

        I like numbers, I was just fascinated by the topic and the discussion and literally googled hurricane landfall probabilities and several links came up.

      2. Very interesting indeed. Thanks, Tom.

        And JPD, it is my understanding Tom is not really fond of numbers. Not sure who told me that though 😉

    3. I also agree with TK and SAK …. This just represents a long term average based on landfalls over a period of time. However, I don’t think that’s a constant per year probability. After the fact, we can look back at patterns of a given year and see that there was no chance of any storm hitting New England. We could then look at a different year and say, we were lucky 4 different times that there wasn’t a storm off the southeast U.S. coast when we had an Ohio valley cutoff low combined with a Bermuda high.

  15. I’m not all charged up about thunderstorm chances tomorrow.

    Perhaps things will change. One never knows around these parts. 😀

    2. I think the place to be in western MA, VT, and NH. They may survive pretty far east in NH but not so convinced they get too far eastward in MA. When we get to the end of May we for sure can see big boomers but it still has to be just right for that to happen. We’re more likely to see a good overnight warm front driven t-storm this time of year than we are a cold front fired one.

  17. my gut feeling is we will have at least a strong tropical storm just to mess with my experiment. A5ttttttZnother part of me ys the ocean temps are near to below normal and i feel because i need to go in the water it will remain cold :p

  18. Sooooooo, TK. The June 1 tornado was 2011. I keep mentioning 2011 aa a year that was pretty much the weather we are having now until mid-June. And I fully understand that one similarity does not a rule make. Just thought it was curious.

  20. Good morning,

    Eric had a chance of severe storms almost to the coast ending just West of Boston, say
    around rt. 128 or so, perhaps a tad East.

    Here is the latest from the SPC. Looking a bit more interesting inland.

    http://imgur.com/a/2pbh2

    1. The slight area aligns itself pretty much where the best chances are, as per usual, especially this time of year. 😀

  21. I posted this on Facebook 8 years ago today, and when I saw it pop up in my memories today I thought of you, Vicki…

    “There is no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather.” -John Ruskin

      1. As I think about it, my son in law mentioned 2009 and lots of rain in the spring and as I recall he also said flooding.

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