Wednesday Forecast

187 Comments

8:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 31-JUNE 4)
This is the final day of what has been a cool and wet May overall, despite a 3-day heatwave for many locations during mid month. This will be the first May since 2008 where the temperature comes in below normal in Boston, and the coolest May there since 2005. Our final day of the month will feature more cloudiness but eventually some areas of sunshine. A weakening cold front in the region may trigger a few showers through early afternoon and then another approaching cold front will send showers/thunderstorms toward the region from the west this evening but they will have trouble surviving all the way through the region as we lose daytime heating and have somewhat more stable air in place compared to the air to the west of the region. Though it will be more unstable than it was yesterday so some of the activity may survive to some extent. Will watch this as the day goes on. A drier westerly flow will take over for Thursday but another weak disturbance may trigger a shower or 2 west of Boston in the afternoon. The next in a parade of fronts will approach later Friday with yet another risk of showers/thunderstorms. Current indications are that this will move along enough so that improvement will be seen Saturday. High pressure then moves across the region keeping most of the weekend dry though by late Sunday we’ll be watching the approach of a low pressure area from the southwest. At the moment I think this will hold off until at least Sunday night.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with isolated to scattered showers. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated showers. Mostly cloudy late.
Highs 63-68 coast, 68-73 interior. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms especially west and north of Boston in the evening. Lows 58-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts early, shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated showers mainly west of Boston favoring central MA and southwestern NH in the afternoon. Highs 65-70 Cape Cod, 71-76 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 54-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms mainly late day and evening. Highs 64-69 South Coast, 70-76 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Decreasing clouds. Chance of showers early, favoring far eastern and southern areas. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs in the 70s except 60s South Coast.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain at night. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s, coolest coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 5-9)
A string of low pressure areas will pass south of the region with at least cool/cloudy if not wet weather June 5-6 with little or very slow improvement but continued cool weather June 7-9 as upper level low pressure hangs around.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 10-14)
Though not as cool as the previous 5-day period, temperatures likely remain below normal as the pattern favors a trough centered just to the east of the region and a cooler supply of air from eastern Canada. It should be drier during this period.

187 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. So this month we are seeing proof that vegetation can thrive just nicely without prolific sunshine. They make the most of what they receive, and the nice boost in short term moisture and an ending of the drought have made for a very good early growing season for natural vegetation. Some crops may be delayed around the region but they should recover decently well. The only thing that suffered were some very early blossoms due to cold in March.

    So overall, while people are having extreme difficulty coping mainly due to staring at their weather app’s rain icons more than the actual weather, our plant life is rather liking this. 🙂

    1. I don’t look at those apps. I am having trouble coping because basically the sun is never shining. It’s pretty simple…

  3. Reading this forecast I need to refill my Prozac for at least thru mid June. What a disaster.

  4. Morning again.

    Latest SPC shows no changes for Convection today. Here is a zoomed look:

    http://imgur.com/a/QhYJe

    Not for nothing, but I saw a 53 and 54 in Eric’s 7-day forecast. Btw, these were
    for JUNE days. Here we go.

    53 Degrees High for ANY day in JUNE is simply NOT ACCEPTABLE!

    1. The slight area is just where it belongs.

      We shall see IF there are any changes with the 12Z guidance.

      Will also check HRRR

      1. HRRR highest Cape for boston is about 500 joules give or take.
        Best Cape is found far to the West of the coast.

        At this point I’d say we can kiss thunder storms good-bye at
        the coast.

        Of course never knows about last minute changes, so we
        continue to watch, but I am not concerned in the least.

  6. Something to keep in mind for parts of the interior from NWS Albany, NY Discussion. Of course without the sunshine the threat of strong to severe storms will lessen.
    It should also be noted that, when sufficient instability is present, that the current location of the upper level low north of the Great Lakes is similar to a neutral tilt `type B` closed low, which CSTAR III research has associated with a higher incidence of severe weather across the northeast states.

  7. I wonder if the extra long range on the GFS has any chance of offering hope.

    Bermuda High, 850 mb temps of 15 to 18C ……

    1. The way it has been going, I wouldn’t hang my hat on anything just yet. 😀

      At the coffee station this morning, staff were complaining about yet another
      crappy day!

      1. Yeah, it’s been a tough stretch. The positive is that school is very comfortable for late May.

    2. That’s been advertised on there for a few days now. Keeps getting pushed out. I hope on the next 2-4 days the runs keep it close to the same time frame. We’ve seen this before where we get some warm weather modeled and it keeps getting rushed and then pushed out in time. June 14th has been a pretty consistent signal since Monday. The 00Z this morning held that idea, but the 06Z shows it backing off again. Lets see if the 12Z shows the same.
      The GEFS indicate something might change around then, but as always, it could be a week (plus) early.
      Like TK said yesterday, he, harvey, judah, etc all think AN summer. But man sitting here on the precibus of June 1st, hard to see.

      1. Who was advertising a Bermuda High here for the last few days? I know it wasn’t in my discussion.

        2. Nobody said it was advertised on here. Who said that?
          Tom was talking about the GFS. My response was the higher 850’s were on there (there meaning the GFS) out in time. Nobody said you forecasted it.

  9. Later today, I don’t think strong storms make it all the way to the covfefe ?!?!?!?!?!?!

  11. Regarding the GFS: It’s been an inconsistent piece of trash lately. Use it out to 5 days with caution. Use it beyond 5 days if you dare…

    1. All of my forecasts at work for the past week plus have been based off of the NAM/WRF in the short-range and ECMWF beyond 3 days. I have completely avoided the GFS and it has served me well.

    1. hahaha – and darn, I wish I’d known. I’m only 15 minutes away. I would have met you for coffee.

      The trick is to catch the first one green and then don’t let anyone slow down in front of you. I find yelling at the windshield helps ….maybe doesn’t get them to speed up but makes me feel better!!!

      1. LOL…I had an idiot in front of me. 🙂 I am on a tight schedule trying to get updates done to ATMs so my time there was short. However, next time I am out there I will certainly let you know.

    1. I hit the DISLIKE button, not that you didn’t do a nice job, but rather I do
      NOT relish the idea of a hot Summer or even a remote change for a hot Summer.
      With each passing year, my wife succumbs to the heat’s effects more and more.

      I vote for a nice summer with consistent dry mid-80s. I know it’s a tough order, but that is what I would like.

      1. I’ve read through that forecast 3 times. i see a lot of “ifs”, “buts”, “maybe”, but nothing too concrete one way or another.

        1. Actually they were confident on the current pattern through mid June, and then left plenty of room for a warmer pattern pending the status of El Nino. That’s about as clear cut as a long range can get, realistically.

    2. Yes indeed! I’m working on my outlook as well and finding we’re all generally on the same page…

  15. Tk I have 3 big jobs lined up 2 Saturday & 1 Sunday . Is Saturday not looking good for my area

    1. Looks fine right now other than a possible early shower. Check back though. A little uncertainty still.

      1. I’ve advised my customers we should hold of on ordering the mulch till tomorrow. I’ll monitor here and touch base with you in the morning .

  17. Special Weather Statement out for parts of SNE highlighting the potential for strong to severe storms. for the interior. The clouds are hanging tough where I am and will see if they break to allow the atmosphere to destabilize.

    1. I won’t be home until 5:30ish – can you try to hold them off until after that please so I can enjoy them 🙂

    2. It was just pouring in Plymouth from what I heard. I have been in the Franklin area all morning and it is pure clouds.

  18. I think the timing may work out for you Vicki should any thunderstorms fire. Plenty of sunshine west of SNE and if that could push into the interior then there is a chance of that locally strong to severe storm.

  19. Pay attention to key words in NWS’s statement.
    “A few”. “Possible”.
    And then check the locations they specify.
    I hope nobody is expecting a widespread outbreak of big storms today. Not happening in most of SNE.

  20. I was never feeling it for widespread thunderstorm activity. This looks to be a lot of what we had last summer with thunderstorms where the activity was isolated and never widespread.

  23. Just did the noon office coffee run to downtown Middleborough and got caught a huge downpour, the one that’s currently over Plymouth.
    That will teach me to volunteer!!!

  26. The activity in the far southeast is a little more widespread than I thought it might be. Good lift over an old boundary there.

  28. Starting to see some sunshine right now. Will see how much the atmosphere destabilizes and watch the radar.

  29. 12Z models are another disaster. Every way possible to torch the entire CONUS but leave New England in the mank.

  30. I am exhausted. Had nearly 5 hours of meetings! I can’t tolerate meetings at all.
    Give me a break!!

    Anyhow, I noticed some decent sunshine during the last 1 1/2 or so. Not so much now.

    Will it translate to storms?

    1. I hate them too. 90% are a waste of time. The other 10% could be done in less that 30 minutes when they are scheduled for an hour.

    2. You guys don’t have meetings facilitated by us. I’ve yet to hear anyone say the meeting was not beneficial and we are back again the next year 🙂 Perhaps it is because we have an approach that is, from what I have seen, quite unique

      1. I’m talking about project team meetings that are internal. I assume Dave is too

        1. These are internal meetings also but facilitated by us based on projects determined previously by the team with periodic followups to determine where everyone is and what needs to be added, subtracted, tweeked, etc. Perhaps not exactly the same but I’m telling ya…..nothing boring about our meetings 🙂 We make goals and action plans fun !!

  32. This month reminds me of August and September in the Netherlands. A few nice days, and even a few warm ones, but mostly overcast with light rain or the threat of rain.

  33. I have made a separate blog post containing my outlook for summer. It’s similar in many ways to the one posted by SAK, and similar to ones made by Barry Burbank, Dr. Judah Cohen, and to some extent, NOAA (though we differ on June).

    Feel free to comment there, or just stick here with the comments for now.

  34. I’m going to tell you right now, don’t be surprised if Monday through Friday next week are all overcast, occasionally wet, and much cooler than normal. I think we’re going to be stuck for several days again.

    Some of the long range forecasts on TV media were relying too heavily on GFS information, and talking to the viewers about “finally a stretch of sunny days”. I don’t see it.

    1. Why would that clouds, occasional wet and cooler temps surprise any of us? A forecast for sun indeed would 😀

    4. Awesome. Looks like North Reading High School might see its first graduation indoors at the new school opened three years ago. Another week of this weather is going to be tough to take.

  35. On and off sun between Sutton and Westborough most of the afternoon. And when the sun is out, it is quite hot!

  36. Thanks, TK.

    On and off sunshine here in Sudbury this afternoon. I don’t know how it will or will not relate to any thunderstorms later. Sky is pretty, ‘though and it’s nice to see the sun.

  37. TK – I had to fill out my name and email in order to post just now. Is there a reason why?

    1. Recently delete your browsing history/cookies? Recently change your internet settings? Using a different internet browser (Chrome, Firefox, etc.)? All these can make you have to enter your info

      1. My computer has been acting a little crazy in the past few days. I might have deleted some browsing history at one point when my emails weren’t coming up. Probably the reason. Thanks!

        1. I think that’s it. Since I didn’t have to re-approve, the issue was definitely on your end.

  38. So jealous of people reporting sunshine. We had maybe an hour or two today and that was it.

    1. It is on and off sunshine with tons of clouds. At least in Sutton. I’m sure you had about the same amount we had.

  39. Boy next week looks awful, both GFS and EURO show ugly signs. Guess our pool membership in Dedham isn’t getting used any time soon 🙂

  40. About 60-70% blue sky and breezy in Marlborough right now. Don’t know what that means for storms later on…

  41. The type B low was in this NWS Albany discussion that Jimmy James quoted.

    “It should also be noted that, when sufficient instability is present, that the current location of the upper level low north of the Great Lakes is similar to a neutral tilt `type B` closed low, which CSTAR III research has associated with a higher incidence of severe weather across the northeast states.”

  42. I had two interesting conversations. One yesterday with a friend in charleston. He asked how weekend was. I said we had enjoyed it and that although it was cooler and then rainy on Monday, we were out a lot. I expected him to say how lovely it was in SC. Instead he quickly said…lucky you. And meant it

    Another friend today was saying he owns four properties with wells and he will take all the rain he can get.

    Just a couple of different perspectives which of course is what we all have

  43. Took quite the tour today, Halifax, Milford, Bellingham, Franklin, Westwood, Randolph, and Stoughton. Saw about 12 raindrops, lots of clouds, and a bit of sun.

    1. Excited for you as I watch the Radar. Harvey Leonard seemed to believe it would hold together until Worcester Hills – at least that was my take on his closing comments.

      1. Thanks, mama. It isn’t looking as if it will drop this far south but just maybe

        And if it doesn’t, what a glorious evening. Been deck sitting, listening to music, drinking wine, watching birds and even got some reading in when nature didn’t distract

  46. Severe Thunderstorm warning northwest of me. Pretty good line forming in Hudson River Valley of NY moving east.

  47. Random storm just popped up to the west of me around Billerica. Can see the cummulonimbus cloud now and hear the thunder. Didn’t notice any growing cummulus so this one must have formed very quickly.

    2. Winds really blew the tops of those clouds east, moderate rain is stretching away from the actual core of the storm. Becoming a healthy cell with some weak rotation on the backside. Want to watch it but think it will turn out to be nothing.

  49. Vicki I am in between two severe thunderstorm warning boxes. One northwest part of Litchfield and the other in Hartford county.

    1. Keep me moving in your direction.

      I just doomed any chances we have. I took umbrella down. 🙁

  50. Nasty storms to our west tonight. Lots of hail reports, up to 1″ diameter but mostly around dime size. Storm moving into CT right now has a pronounced hook echo with it. Rotation is fairly broad, but is there. Worth keeping an eye on in the short term.

    1. Enough for a tornado warning though. NWS Albany has just pulled the trigger on that as soon as I posted this. Seek immediate shelter if in the path.

    1. Hook echo seems to have resolved itself but a storm cell just west southwest of springfield also has my attention.

  53. A couple of those cells embedded within the line moving into central MA have had and continue to have weak rotation as well. Storms should weaken with time, but again, worth watching in the short term, with a continued hail/wind threat. Also a renegade storm in northeast MA that has been broadly rotating as well, somewhat unique in that its rotation is clockwise, or anticyclonic.

      1. Not really. Most mesocyclones and tornadoes in our hemisphere rotate cyclonically, but you’ll sometimes get an anticyclonic one due to near-storm processes. More a curiosity than anything.

    3. See above WxWatcher. The cell just to the WSW of Sprinfield has my attention. ? small hook echo but likely short lived as it runs into more stable air.

      1. The one that is headed in this direction? Tstorm warning box is now just west of sutton

        1. No Vicki. I think you’ll get an enjoyable storm but in a more weakened state when as they approach you. Enjoy!

    4. Indeed very unique since it only occurs in approximately 2 percent of all tornadoes in the northern hemisphere. Fortunately, these types of storms are weaker than ones that are mesocyclonic.

  54. Still clear blue sky in Sutton but some darker clouds to the WNW traveling what seems to be NW at a fairly good clip

    1. I had a feeling… be safe Vicki – hopefully no rotation or hail but just a fun storm for you.

      1. You had a good feeling? Or not good. Your feelings always seem to be guided. And thank you

        1. Good feeling – for your love of storms. For some reason the thought popped into my head that Mac will make sure you have a good show tonight.

          1. You gave me happy tears. And somehow I knew your thoughts were guided before you said they were. Bit happy here

  55. The circulation with the storm possibly producing tornado over Sherman CT moving southeast. Golf ball size reported in Poukipsee NY area.

  57. The circulation with the tornado warning looks to be weakening. Still dangerous storm with damaging winds.

  58. Bank of clouds to our west now just coming into view. I’ll pass on a tornado please and thank you. For everyone.

  59. Tornado Warning cancelled!!! Now the part of Litchfield County where I live severe thunderstorm warning.

  60. As Dave pointed out, the line of storms is beginning to weaken globally. Many locales in central MA will enjoy a good storm while others to the east miss out. Nevertheless, most get wet by evening’s end.

  61. Hopefully that mess depicted on the euro next week isn’t as bad when we get thru it. Maybe the bias to deepen the trough over this part of the world is cooked into this just like in winter. But man, that looks like a winter pattern draped over supposedly the start of met summer. Just awful.
    I’m interested to see what the May numbers look like. Even with a 3 day heat wave (which seems like it never happpened, actually) my guess is that BOS, ORH, and PVD come in pretty solidly BN. Be interesting to see what it would look like w/o those 3 days in the avg.

    I went back and looked at June 2009 for BOS. Avg temp was 64, avg high was 69, avg low was 57. Not a lot of diurnal temp change. As gloomy and cloudy as that was, BOS only recorded 3.22″ of rain. Lots of highs in the 60’s. Only one high in the 50’s (58) on the 11th. We could have two days, at least, with highs in the 50’s next week.

    1. I just saw Fisher has 50’s Monday-Wednesday. He’s on the euro train. Probably correct 🙁

  63. Did that cell in Billerica area dance around in the same area as long as it appeared to on radar befoes it moved on?

    1. The clouds were around for a while, at least 20 minutes in a similar area. Storm took its sweet time to stop and admire the scenery.

  65. Skies during pitch black winds gusting about big loud clap of thunder. Looking at radar storm is weakening but storm earlier had rotation that prompted a tornado warning.

          1. Although you did make me laugh out loud. Not at you of course but at your comment. Still smiling…

  67. All warned area in MA seem to have expired. Still one in CT and in NH and ME

    Sky just solid overcast here. Some clouds to south and east

  68. Thunder is shaking the house here in southern Westford and it is pouring. Might be small hail as it is loud.

            1. Well darn. I thought I was certifiably nuts

              And I hear thunder in the distance 🙂 🙂

        2. That I absolutely believe JpDave! Happy to house swap next storm – thunderstorms are the only time I really regret not still being in the city. But at least I’m east of Worcester!

  69. I am not seeing any severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings right now in SNE so that is good news.

  70. From NWS several minutes ago:

    Severe thunderstorms will remain possible in and near the Watch
    area thru 9 pm. As the line moves further east, we should see a
    gradual weakening of the line. Can`t rule out thunder and some
    gusty winds as far east as BOS/OWD/PVD, but not anticipating
    severe thresholds at that point.

  71. Pretty decent cell on a bee line to Boston. Does it make it? We shall see.
    I doubt it, but one never knows.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=50&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.1956521739130435&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=502.2222222222222&centery=592.6666666666666&transx=102.22222222222217&transy=352.66666666666663&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24937960&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    2. Hope it reaches you. I know it shaved a year or two off my life! But it is finally passing with no harm done here as far as I can tell – thank you Angel Mac!!!

      1. Awwwww. My girls will love this too.

        Glad it has passed you and all is ok.

        I think nothing here but that is ok if tornado is the alternative.

          1. I am in Sutton and it looked to be falling apart but now rain and hearing some thunder a bit closer

  72. Hearing thunder in Wilmington, prepared to get hit. Don’t know if I’ll see hail though.

      1. Now I am hearing hail. 3 big thunderstorms in a one week span in May. Had you told me this would happen last Wednesday I would have laughed out loud.

  77. Lots of lightning and thunder and some heavy rain with the thunderstorms that just moved thru Coventry, CT. Some wind at the onset. Nothing severe, but strong enough that the directv went out and of course, right during the Yankees rally!

    2. Another batting outing for Tanaka. I never would have thought when the seasons started he would be a question marking among the starting pitchers.

      1. Tanaka has been awful. He has one good start and looks like he is going to turn it around and then he regresses back.

        At least I didn’t miss anything when the satellite went out, Yankees have left 9 base runners on which isn’t helping either.

  78. Yankees since 2014 and I read a stat during the broadcast last night have lost 10 straight series at Camden Yards. Unless a comeback happens here it will be 11th straight.

  79. Yawn…Good morning. Up early today.

    Well, a familiar pattern last night. We had a nice line that split or at least the
    stronger portions split North and South of the city with the city getting a few showers
    without thunder. Gran total here: 0.04 inch. 😀

    We are under a marginal risk for severe today. Here is the latest from the SPC:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

      1. The 3KM NAM and the HRRR would disagree with the
        NWS as they indicate convection across Eastern MA this afternoon between about 2 and 4PM.

        Therefore, I am now in Camp thunderstorms. 😀

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