Saturday Forecast

104 Comments

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 10-14)
A warm front moves across the region from west to east today and this will bring some clouds into the region during the day along with a spot shower or thunderstorm. Then the door to the heat will be open and will last for about 3 days, with many areas likely recording a heatwave before a cold front drops down from the north later Tuesday and brings cooler weather by Wednesday.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms mainly mid to late afternoon. Highs 68-75 coast, 76-82 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-64. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-86 South Coast, 87-95 elsewhere. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 63-72. Highs 77-85 South Coast, 86-94 elsewhere.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 65-73. Highs 77-85 South Coast, 86-94 elsewhere but may turn cooler especially NH and eastern MA later.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 57-64. Highs 70-80, coolest coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 15-19)
Evolving Bermuda High set-up will bring near to above normal temperatures, increased humidity, and a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 20-24)
Indications are for a northwesterly flow to develop during this period bringing somewhat cooler weather and a few passing disturbances with brief rain chances.

104 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK
    Can’t wait to hear your thoughts soon about those severe thunderstorms chances in the next few weeks that you mentioned in your post yesterday.

    1. The idea is some very strong impulses / cold air aloft versus a lot of humidity just to the south. I think they interact a few to several times during this month, more than we have seen the last few seasons.

  3. If anyone happens to be going to the final NWS Skywarn training class in Plymouth MA this morning, come say hi!

    1. Funny, I was just at the one in Peabody the other night. Was more of a shadowing experience for my internship but I got my Skywarn certification too. Something I’d wanted to get done for awhile 🙂

      1. That was the one I was originally going to, but I ended up heading south this morning instead.

    2. With my schedule, making any of the classes was tough, so I took the online refresher course and got my new SkyWarn card mailed to me.

  6. Please excuse my ignorance, but I came across another term I had never heard.

    “Lid Strength”

    It is a measure of the Cap in the atmosphere similar to the CIN, but different.
    Storm chasers use this and they like to see values under +1
    This chart from COD has our area at -7, which tell us something.

    Here is the chart

    http://imgur.com/a/Z4VN4

    Here is a discussion from a Storm chasers site. So far, it is the best explanation
    I could find. Perhaps TK or SAK can post a link to a better explanation.

    https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/lid-strength-index.27377/

    In any case, I am hoping TK or SAK could give us an explanation and how it may or may not affect our weather on Tuesday (assuming the chart is correct in the first place).

    Many thanks

      1. But that is for 18Z Tuesday while the GFS chart is for 21Z Tuesday.

        So 2-5 PM still “appears” to be the target time for potential
        action on Tuesday. We shall see and it is certainly worthy of
        monitoring,

        BTW, For those interested, I encourage you to check the Tuesday Soundings on both the College of Dupage sit and the Pivotal Weather site. They are different. COD site us our
        area in a “Severe” threat, while the Pivotal Site has the Risk
        as “Tornado”. I have noticed that Pivotal always reports the
        threats more aggressively. Looking at all of the parameters,
        I would certainly go with the COD site and Ignore the threats
        from Pivotal. 😀

  7. NWS discussion for Tuesday:

    Conditions for convection are much more favorable Tuesday with
    cooler temps above the mixed layer and some semblance of deep
    moisture. Convective parameters will be favorable with Totals in
    the upper 40s and low 50s, LI below zero, and CAPE above 1000
    J/Kg. There is more moisture through the layer as seen by cross
    sections and as seen by precipitable water values reaching 1.75
    to 2 inches which is about 2 Std Dev above normal for mid-June.
    There will also be a cold front sweeping in from the north and
    northwest during the afternoon/evening.

    All of this indicates showers and scattered thunder as the
    front moves through. Winds at 850 mb reach 20 to 25 knots. Winds
    at 500 mb reach 35 knots on two of three long range models, but
    are 25-30 knots on the ECMWF. We will need to monitor this for
    strong thunderstorm wind gust potential Tuesday
    afternoon/evening.

  8. A front dropping down from the north like what we’ll be seeing Tuesday is not usually a big severe weather producer. The fact that the Euro shows basically nothing is also a red flag. But aside from models, the one big thing I see missing is shear. Very little of that. I think the NWS discussion covers the threat well, with some potential for gusty thunderstorm winds if things come together right. And I agree with TK, that the potential is there for above normal thunderstorm chances in the next few weeks.

    1. I certainly did notice the lake of gusto with the Euro. We’ll see if that changes any with the 12Z Run. AND I agree 100% that BD fronts “Generally” don’t produce severe weather, however, it doesn’t mean they can’t so I don’t think we can
      let our guard down.

      We’ll just continue to monitor the situation.

      Oh while you are here, care to chime in on the “Lid Strength”?

      Thanks

      3. LSI is not a parameter I’m too familiar with. It’s another measure of capping, but I have a feeling it’s more relevant on the Plains where capping tends to be more of a factor. TK or SAK may have more, but I don’t think it’s something to pay too much attention to.

        When it comes to severe, as TK and SAK have told us, the old standbys will usually get you the right answer. CAPE, shear (SRH), moisture (dew points and PWATs), lifted index, lapse rates, K index (I’ve noticed a lot of the NWS mets like that one), total totals. That’s about all you need. Of course, it’s too tempting not to look at some of the composite indices. Supercell composite, sig tor, etc. And they have their value, but check the basics first. And of course, if we’re dealing with severe weather at the coast, check your wind direction.

        2. Standing on the banks of the chare led at millenia park in boston (w. Roxbury)
          Pretty cool. Water is high!
          Took a photo. Will post later.

  11. BTW, based on current temperature trends, it looks to me as if temperatures
    WILL over achieve today. We’re sitting at 78 in JP already and it’s barely past 10
    in the morning. I think we make mid-80s at least. We shall see.

        1. And now a tune from a band I think was local is dancing around in my head and I cannot get it out enough to remember the name or the band.

          You know this will drive me nuts until I do remember and what is worse once I remember it probably isn’t a band from this area anyway.

      1. btw, was not fishing, just had a few minutes so I stopped by
        for the view. 😀 “may” fish tomorrow AM. Not sure yet.
        Want to try one more time while the water is very high.
        The bass just seem to be holed up in the fast water when it is high.

  14. Bulk Shear numbers for the 12z NAM and GFS for Tuesday in the 20 -25 knot range. Certainly enough for thunderstorms but nothing overly impressive with that severe weather parameter. The CAPE, Lift, and mid level rates look good enough for some strong storms and at the moment look better than any time last year when we had thunderstorms.

  15. You have to be freakin kidding me)()!(@&#(!*@()#*()@#*@(#&*(&#$*(&@*(#$^*(@#^$*(^@#(*$&*@#&$(*@^#*$^(*@#^$*(@^(#*$&(*@#&($*@&#$&@*#&

    Look at this 1 PM Logan observation! 73 while it is near 85 a few miles back from the Water. Certainly here!

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.36056N 71.01056W

    A Few Clouds
    73.0 °F
    Last Updated: Jun 10 2017, 12:54 pm EDT
    Sat, 10 Jun 2017 12:54:00 -0400
    Weather: A Few Clouds
    Temperature: 73.0 °F (22.8 °C)
    Dewpoint: 55.9 °F (13.3 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 55 %
    Wind: Southeast at 13.8 MPH (12 KT)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1014.0 mb
    Altimeter: 29.95 in Hg

  16. Sitting on the boat in Boston Harbor Marina in Eastie. Glorious breeze! What is the timing on the warm front crossing Boston?

    Next Saturday is the Parade of Sail. Fingers crossed for good weather conditions.

  18. I am enjoying today and it was nice to get out play golf. Dew points will start getting up there tomorrow through Tues. Tuesday we watch that front. It will be interesting tomorrow if SPC puts us under a marginal risk for thunderstorms for Tuesday.

  22. I finally figured out what song was running around in my head earlier. And it is indeed a Massachusetts groups. My Friends boyfriend sand the highest part of ba da da da da dah

    I kept thinking it was la la. As soon as I remembered ba dah…etc it came to me. And yes I am rambling but it is a rambling kind of day

    Anyone want to hazard a guess at the song. TK works into your current year of music.

        1. 1968 from Worcester? Haven’t a Clue.

          Question Mark and the Mysterians were around about
          that time?

          Rocking Ram Rods?

          Barry and the Remains?

          G. Geils?

          Beacon Street Union?

          Velvet Underground?

          Human Sexual Response?

          Freddie Cannon?

          I don’t know.

              1. OK, I have it but I did cheat, so I won’t mention it. I recognize the name. They were not one of my favs or I would have remembered.

                I am not a fan of pop music. I Like my music hard and rough. Big fan of hard rock and punk for sure, a bit of heavy metal but not that much. I actually don’t care much for Metallica.

  24. Hi All-Today is yet another confirmation that the retooled ECWMF is struggling with a cool bias in the NE during S/SW flow set ups. Got to 85 here. ECMWF had a modeled high of 78. Keep this in mind when forecasting your highs, which I know a lot of you do.

  25. We made 86 in Wrentham. It seems the rule of thumb on above normal days all year has been to take the expected highs and add five degrees. And that’s after accounting for a cool bias in most of the guidance. For the next three days, most models get us into the low 90s at best, and yet expectations seem to be for widespread low and mid 90s all three days. Question becomes, should we add another five degrees to that, and expect some places to approach 100? That’s probably a stretch given forecasts are already solidly above guidance, but I’ll be watching to see.

    And once again, as it has been in other warm patterns this year, the RGEM is the warmest of the guidance the next two days. And will probably be the most accurate.

  28. Do models base their forecasts on climate averages? With the whole global warming thing going on, that could be suppressing temperatures because it doesn’t account for the additional temperature added to the climate norms.

    1. Short and medium range models are programmed to perform given a set of initial conditions. The long term averages won’t have any impact on their overall performances.

    1. Good Morning JJ. I forgot to ask how your game was yesterday. It was certainly a perfect day for golf

  30. 82 here with dp 61

    I’m sure we will make 90, but the rate of temperature increase is surprisingly slow to me.

    1. 80 with 66 DP. Lovely promise of summer this morning. JPD are your window ACs in?

      I miss window ACs. They were less expensive. The minisplit supplements an area room over garage that kids turned into a kitchen. SIL installed and got at cost otherwise I don’t think a mini pays for itself.

      Right now all of my windows are wide open.

        1. Great. Please tell Mrs OS I keep a couple of cold packs in the freezer and use them on my back or neck. Although, my guess is, knowing how much she and I tend to think alike, that she does the same.

  31. Looking over guidance regarding possible severe weather on Tuesday, they appear to be all over the place. Euro seems to down play severe, while the GFS is the most robust with everything else in between. In fact on the COD and Pivotal site, the GFS sounding shows a threat of Tornado. Forecast CAPE ranges from 2500 joules to 4000 joules with Lifted index of -6 to -10. Pretty juicy. We shall see.

  34. Of the 3 days, Tuesday may have the lowest temps (relatively speaking), but I think it might be the most uncomfortable as the humidity really pools ahead of the back door front.

  35. Hi Vicki…. It was a great day for golf. I played nine holes on a par 3 course. I almost chipped in for a birdie on the first hole and for a par on the ninth hole. Both shots were inches from going in. I had two par putts which I missed on the 2nd and 8th hole and the other holes I won’t talk about.
    As far as Tuesday thunderstorm potential I am thinking the same thing we had back on May 31st where we had isolated strong severe storms including that EF1 Tornado in Dutchess County NY

        1. Severe T-Storm Watch in that area. Justified for sure.

          SUMMARY…A well-developed, bowing cluster moving into southwestMinnesota this morning will likely persist and reach the Minneapolis area by mid morning and northwest Wisconsin by late morning.Damaging winds will be the main threat, though isolated large hail
          will also be possible with the strongest embedded storms.

          http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0312.html

  38. A 20c (850mb) isotherm exiting eastern mass late this afternoon/early this evening over the local area.

    While cirrus may be costing a 1F or 2F now, once they pass by by early afternoon, the high temps may occur a bit later in the afternoon than they usually do, given the warming airmass above. Logan may get to that 94-97F temp range yet today.

      1. A wind direction that has them close for once. That was quite a difference yesterday when you were 85F and Logan was 73F, if I recall correctly.

          1. That must be interesting when that arrives at the airport. I’ve been at Rexhame beach a couple times on a day with a SE wind, where the beach is cool and all of a sudden, the wind turns SW and in a second, you go from refrigerator cool to hair dryer warmth.

            1. Not sure I have experienced that.
              I have experienced the reverse. We were at
              Nantasket Beach on a 90+ day. Wife and I started to take a walk on the beach when bam, the EAST wind came in and temps dropped from the 90s to the 60s.

              We went home where it of course, was still 90+.

              New England weather for ya.

  42. Summit temp on Mt Washington up to 54.9F and climbing steadily. Back edge of cirrus perhaps 1 to 2 hrs away. Looking forward to see what happens to temps btwn 2 and 6 pm.

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