Monday Forecast

127 Comments

7:42AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)
The heat goes on today into Tuesday before a cold front puts an end to it after crossing the region from north to south during Tuesday. Today’s a rain-free, sunny day with increasing humidity, and the humidity remains into Tuesday providing some fuel for possible thunderstorms. It currently appears that the greatest threat for storms will be to the south of I-90 based on the timing of the front, a possible sea breeze boundary, a possible weak surface trough from the west just ahead of the front, and some cooler air aloft. It doesn’t look like a widespread storm outbreak for southern areas but a few strong storms are possible. By Wednesday, high pressure arrives via eastern Canada and lingers Thursday into Friday as it slides to the east eventually offshore. This will bring dry weather and lower humidity at first then some of the humidity may try to return by later Friday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 77-87 South Coast, 88-95 elsewhere. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear and hazy. Humid. Lows 66-74. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms favoring areas south of the Mass Pike. Humid. Highs 77-87 South Coast, 88-95 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable with sea breezes especially South Coast, then shifting to N 5-15 MPH late. Strong winds possible near any storms.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs in the 70s, coolest East Coast.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 50s. Highs in the 70s, coolest South Coast.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 17-21)
Higher humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances are expected in the June 17-19 period before drier weather returns later in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 22-26)
A more zonal pattern returns with a few episodes of showers/storms from passing disturbances and more variable temperatures.

127 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. And the hits just keep on comin.

      This and mockingbird were my two favorite 1963 songs. I got a new transistor radio for my birthday and WMEX was the station to go to

      Thanks MassBay

          1. Arnie Woo Woo….absolutely. And they were the days, Philip. Funny how AM was the choice and not the WBZ FM which also played current songs.

              1. I also remember wbcn. And I’m surprised WMEX didn’t reach Millis. Or maybe I’m not. I just hadn’t thought about it.

  4. I had no idea that Danielle Niles and Matt Noyes were married to each other. They welcomed their new daughter Charlotte Rose! 🙂

  5. Up until now I never knew of any TV mets married to each other…plenty of newscasters though.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Feeling the heat today, that’s for sure. WAY ahead of yesterday
    in terms of temperature rise. How high will it go?

      1. 86 at 10AM. Not much of a rise there in one hour.

        DP remains at 61, however, the wind is around to the SW
        and rather light at 7 mph. Is an East Coast Sea Breeze in
        the cards????? OR will the wind start blasting in from the SW?

        1. The Cape’s not escaping this morning. 87F at Chatham and Hyannis. Even Nantucket has managed 70F.

  7. Thanks TK !

    Winter, on a 95F day on the mind. Tomorrow, at 11am, would have concluded the 180th day, however, 4 snow days takes us to 11am next Monday 🙁 🙁 🙁

    1. I’m surprised your town had that many snow days. I didn’t think SE MA had that much snow. Even Logan was only around 3″+ above for the season.

      1. Yeah, there was 1 that largely ended up being rain, we were laughing the day after (at the time 🙂 )and the other 3 were timing, as opposed to a big snow fall.

      1. Never thought I could be so happy to visit my dad’s room in ICU later but it is so nice and cool in there. He has taken a step back and is back on the ventilator. 🙁

  12. I wonder if localized flooding is a threat tomorrow.

    High dewpoints + convergence from south coast seabreeze + possible east coast seabreeze convergence + individual storm outflow boundaries = squeeze a lot of moisture out of the column.

    Perhaps decent speed of storms will help out.

  13. I thought that school districts have a certain number of snow days “built in” and are made up only when that number is exceeded. I believe BPS is five days.

    Sorry Tom and your students. 🙁

    1. They used to do that, Philip. Then they started a new policy (at least in the towns I’m familiar with) where they marked the last day of school on the calendar providing there were no snow days. Some mark five days later, indicating that would apply if there is five snow days. Some do not.

      Today would have been Sutton’s last day if they had not had snow. Now, it will be Friday. Uxbridge, I believe, has a last day on Monday.

      1. Totally correct, Vicki. My students think they have five “magic” days for snow days. Not true.
        There have been regional weather events (2011 tornado, ice storms, flooding) that I know school districts have asked for and applied for waivers and have been turned down by the DESE.
        Perhaps a widespread, major disaster (hurricane, something on the scale of the Blizzard of 1978) would result in a statewide waiver of the mandated 180 days. I do know that the state waived 4-5 days in February, 1978 (February 6-10) because the entire commonwealth was under a state of emergency.

        Our original last day was this June 16. Three snow days for Middleborough brings us out to Wednesday, June 21.

          1. I think the reason for doing away with them is that at the end of the year they had to be subtracted. The magic days were not really magic.

            On many calendars the 180th and 185th days are marked rather than last day. Parents know that 180 days is the goal.

            For instance, those 5 days would have had June 20 show on the calendar as the last day of school in Sutton. That would be the 185th day, however, and 180 days is the requirement. So, for Sutton, it would have suddenly become June 16 and not June 20 for the last day. Either way, you add or subtract. It seems to me to be less confusing to know what the 180th day is and add from that point.

            Sorry if this is not clear. This is the sutton calendar. To me it makes more sense to have it marked this way. I always thought the 185th day was confusing.

            http://sutton.schoolfusion.us/modules/cms/pages.phtml?pageid=333763&SID

            1. I never understood why they put the extra 5 days on the calendar either. 180=180. You start counting on Day 1 with students and you keep counting until you get to Day 180. Even those years when have 6, 7, 8 weather days and we go past the “scheduled” Day 185, we are still in school until we have 180 school days.

              In those years when Labor Day is late in September for the start of school and we have a miserable winter, we can get close to June 30. Schools in Massachusetts cannot go past June 30, not because of summer or hot weather, but because fiscal budgets for cities and towns in Massachusetts end on June 30. There would be no money to pay the teachers or staff from current fiscal years. That’s when classes could be held during Spring Break or on Saturday mornings.

              If you don’t want to go late in June, start earlier in the fall.

              1. Good comment, Capt’n and I completely agree. Unless we lower the 180 days which I tend to think we should!

  14. 12Z GFS is in and keeps the same theme for tomorrow.
    Pretty juicy convection depicted. With marginally severe to severe threats.

  15. According to the BPS calendar there were 5 snow days and the last day would have been the 21st but now it is a week later on the 28th. I had no idea that many days were missed and two of them were on March 14-15. My bet is that rain was involved in most of them (like Marshfield) which stinks even more. Just off the top of my head, I think Logan had only one all/mostly snow event for the entire winter and the others either started or ended as rain. I really feel for the kids in those hot classrooms. I don’t believe too many Boston schools have AC as most are typical old brick buildings.

  16. Our kids school doesn’t have AC but I have always noticed my kids at their age don’t get impacted the way adults do about the heat.

    Philip maybe logan didn’t have all snow but 3 of those 5 days were bad enough for a snow day imo.

    1. I also thought there was at least once when school was cancelled in Boston for 2 days because of one storm?

      Hadi, you are right about kids not noticing. I know I didn’t. The teachers are the ones I feel badly for. However, most of these last days are dedicated to fun events. Although, Sutton postponed its elementary field day from last week (it never rained) until tomorrow. Not a good thing but then who knew.

    2. I absolutely agree Hadi. I am not doubting the validity in closing school even when rain is involved. In fact, an all snow might have resulted in one or two fewer days missed perhaps.

  17. Logan 90 at NOON. That’s day #2. Logan “may” not make it tomorrow, depending
    on cloud cover and timing of front. We shall see.

    1. 90 on the dot here. I’m hoping for logan to make it tomorrow. It’ll be close enough that a few degrees will not matter and it would be fun to set that record.

    1. Yes, there were. And many days that were warm following the snow that interfered with ski conditions. BUT at least they had snow for skiing.

  19. Back to Boston radio…
    I too remember listening to “rock ‘n roll” on AM. WPRO 630 with Salty Brine and “The Big Ange”; WRKO 680 with Dale Dorman. I also remember Jess Cain and Dave Maynard when WHDH 850 and WBZ played music.

    My kids can’t believed I listened to music on AM!

    I was a big fan of WBZ-FM at 106.7 with Capt. Ken Shelton and the Boston Top 40 countdown. I also loved BCN and Charles Laquidara and The Big Mattress.

    1. Who was that other BZ DJ, Dick Summer

      He DJ’d at an outdoor event in Medfield when I was in High School.

      https://airchexx.com/2013/06/26/dick-summer-the-nightlife-show-on-wbz-radio-103-boston-august-1964/

      BTW, while in high school I picked up an old fashion Tube radio at auction for a quarter. I used to listen to WKBW in Buffalo, NY. Strong signal
      which I could receive at home in Millis from about 2PM onward. The DJ I liked there was “Joey Reynolds”

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joey_Reynolds

    2. A collection of GREAT names.

      My kids have no idea what a transistor radio is 🙂

      I remember walking everywhere – including into the Charles and Harvard Square – with friends. We’d take turns holding the radio up so we could all hear it as we walked. I know every generation believes it was special but I do think kids are missing on a lot of things we had because of the risk society faces now as a whole.

      1. I would put the transistor radio under my pillow and listen to the Red Sox during summer nights with Ken Coleman and Ned Martin. I loved listening to Ned Martin on the radio.

  21. Quiz Answer.

    What is the record high temperature for Boston in June.

    A, 98
    B. 99
    C. 100
    D. 101

    I believe the correct answer is C.

  22. At 2 pm ….

    88F at 1,000 ft Worcester, 88F’s at both Martha’s Vineyard and Hyannis, Nantucket (fully surrounded by about 6oF water) is 77F and Mt. Washington is 59F.

    This is quite a warm airmass, working with a near summer solstice sun.

        1. I see now that Boston has made it to 95, one Degree
          short of the record and there is still an hour+ of
          good heating time available.

          Btw dp 58.

          Believe me I am not complaining, BUT what
          is keeping the dew points WELL below forecast
          levels??????

  23. Just reviewed the 12z Euro severe parameters for tomorrow.
    I would say marginal for severe if that. There are some indices that favor severe, but
    others that do not. We’ll wait and see I guess.

    One notable index was the SWEAT index and it had values of 400 to 425 in Eastern,
    MA. That would support scattered severe storms. However, the total totals
    was 44-50. Thunderstorms, yes. Severe, not so much.

    1. We’ll see what the next runs of NAM and GFS have to say and of course
      tomorrow morning and even late this evening, we’ll get a clue
      from the HRRR and the RAP.

  25. It is 95 degrees in Sudbury right now. There is a breeze but it’s just blowing the hot air around.

    1. Enjoy it very much and I really appreciate you sharing these links.

      He pretty much echoes some of TKs thoughts regarding pulse type storms:

      Instability is just one piece of the puzzle. What will prevent this from becoming a more significant severe weather event is the lack of wind shear. Wind shear, or winds changing speed and direction with height, is critical for storms to organize. While supercells or powerful well-organized storm clusters are unlikely I expect we’ll see a number of strong “pulse” storms that strengthen and weaken quickly. Localized downbursts and hail is possible along with an unusually large amount of lightning and very heavy rain.

      1. Thankfully the wind shear is weak. Looking at the other parameters if the wind shear was stronger I believe we would be looking at something widespread.
        If your caught under a storm that is pulsing up your going to get a nasty thunderstorm.

    2. Here is the map and again thank you JJ. Kind of surprised it was in
      this afternoon’s update. I thought it might come, but later.
      Now, will it be updated to “Slight” in any of the later updates????

      Will we see a Severe Thunderstorm watch for tomorrow?

      Also, although the Risk for a tornado is quite small, none-the-less, it is there.

      2. I was surprised it took until the afternoon update to put us under a marginal risk. With some of the severe parameters that the models were showing Sunday I thought the SPC would have placed us under the marginal risk yesterday.

  28. This may be one heck of a 1-2 summer punch.

    The heat first, then after a 3 day reprieve, perhaps a lot of tropical humidity Sunday through next Tuesday.

  30. So far it looks like Logan topped out at 95.
    We shall see if it spikes again. I kind of doubt it.

  31. As Oct. snow correlates to less snow for the winter, is there any correlation to excessive early season heat and then cooler than average rest of the summer?

    1. I personally highly highly doubt it, but I sure as hell don’t know the
      actual answer to that question. 😀

    2. I’d be interested in that also. Do you have AC, Ace? We didn’t when kids were little and it was not comfortable holding a baby in this and it was also not easy for the little ones to adjust. Although my girls at least think the hotter the better so maybe that is why. Son likes whatever it is.

  32. The 18Z NAMS still show “Severe” as the threat for tomorrow.
    Both NAMs show close to 3,000 joules for tomorrow PM.

    So, we shall see what takes shape.

  33. The NAM was good late in the winter in the 24- 30 hour range. Lets see how it does with the threat of thunderstorms.

  35. It’s interesting to note that people’s perceptions have changed. It’s not actually that humid today, with the exception of closer to the South Coast where dp’s are in the mid 60s. From southern NH well into MA the dp’s are now mid 50s to low 60s. Yes, low 60s is “humid” but it’s not oppressive. Anything under 60, not terrible at all. Yes, it is indeed hot. But people are sweating because they are not used to heat after being cool for the better part of a month, not because it’s oppressively humid. Numbers don’t lie. It’s not that humid.

    1. I didn’t have trouble adjusting to this but I did to the last one. That, however, is not unusual for me. I can do the same going from warm to cold. We have been in the mid60s DP most of the day but are down to 61 now. It is just hot. As Macs cousins who live in AZ both say. When it gets this hot, dry heat or moist heat doesn’t matter….it is all the same !

    2. Agree totally. Those dps were a life saver today. Hot? yes. Oppressive? NO.

      So did you figure out exactly WHY those dps were lower than expected?

      Thanks

  36. What a scorcher today! Heard on the news that if Boston hits 90 tomorrow (certainly possible, but not a lock), it will be the earliest on record we’ve had two heat waves.

    Storms tomorrow: I think TK, the NWS, and others, have covered it well and are mostly on the same page. Scattered showers/storms likely, mostly along and south of the Pike mid-afternoon through evening. Mostly sub-severe, but some risk for gusty winds and small hail in the strongest cells and localized flash flooding potential in the prone locations should they see a storm. Lack of shear is the big inhibitor, something I’ve had picked out for awhile. But plenty of instability and moisture.

    1. You heard correctly. TK said last week, I believe, that if we have a heat wave, It’ll be the first time there have been two before June 15. I’m hoping for a 90 hit tomorrow, then big boomers and no tornado threats.

    2. It always seems like such events take place in seasons when you wouldn’t expect it to. A cool regime fairly persistent for May and early June with 2 brief but intense heat spikes. I’m sure it’s happened before records were kept, but the fact this could be the first one since records were kept shows the average period between such occurrences is fairly large.

  37. And as usual, Beverly’s temperature is too high. I wonder if they will ever fix that.

    Calibration of equipment seems to be a low priority lately.

    Another thing I’m not a fan of – automobile temperature sensors. Almost always wrong. Almost always too high. I’ve seen several posted on FB today and almost all of them are 100+ and believed by whoever posted them and anyone who sees them. This bugs me.

    1. Again, I agree totally. Not sure there is a way around that. Not even sure
      where the manufacturers place those things. Anywhere in the engine compartment is bad. Near a heated road surface is bad. One would need a built in fan to give a more accurate reading.

    2. With rare exception my car reading is very close if not exact. Not so much on the highway for reasons you e planned to me years ago but on side roads.

  38. Oceans haven’t warmed enough yet to give back torrid humidity to the air.

    When the Gulf of Mexico and the southern Atlantic warm to 85F +, combined with continued daily evaporation into the atmosphere, you’ll see those mid-upper 70F dewpoints become common in the south, ready to advect into New England for those 68-72F dewpoint days.

    1. One of these days the tv mets are going to notice that Logan tends to overachieve and forecast temps above guidance. 😉

      1. They may also notice that Logan’s temps frequently read 1 or 2 degrees too high. Been that way for quite a while now.

          1. In this case I think it’s just poor calibration. As I mentioned above, we’re seeing more and more bad temps being just bought for true. Not good.

  40. Boston Buoy temp = 67F

    Just a few days ago, it was only 55-56! I guess a couple 90+ degree days can make a difference.

    1. An ocean current shift can as well. That is more likely what happened. Water temps can’t really go up 11-12 degrees in 2 days from just air temp / sunshine.

  41. Was just watching live video of my storm chase friend as she was following a tornado. Awesome catch and some great video.

      1. Yes. There were several out there early this evening…

        She’s on another one with funnel cloud now.

  42. That tornado watch for that part of the country had a particular dangerous situation attached to it.

  43. Dew points are beginning to creep up a bit now.

    Logan is up to 61, Blue Hill 62 and Norwood 66.
    My AcuRite sensor is reading 64 for DP. It has been pretty accurate, so perhaps it’s OK.
    I am in between Norwood and the airport, but closer to the airport for sure. 😀 BUT Blue Hill is 8 miles due South and Norwood airport is about 12 miles SSW of my house.

  48. Here is a good one. This has NEVER happened before, but it did today.

    Yesterday, I installed 2 window ACs.
    One didn’t seem to be doing the job, so today I pulled it
    and installed a bigger unit and left it cranking. Then I took
    1/2 hour break. Then I took the one I pulled and installed that
    in another room to give us three (3) installed. As I adjusted furniture,
    I noticed a ton of heat coming from the radiator! Damn, it was
    blazing hot!!!

    I go back to the other room and yup you guessed it, that room had the thermostat for the heat and we had left it at the Winter setting because it had been so FREAKING COLD(!@U$(&!@*(#&(*!@&#*(&!(*@#&(*!@&#(*&!(*@#&*(!&@#(*&!*(@#!*#&
    SO the reason the original AC didn’t seem to be working was because it worked
    so well it kicked the heat on!!!

    Set the thermostat down to 58. ALL is good now.

    Go figure!!!

    1. Ugh. Glad you figured it out. Who would have thunk the AC was driving temps down low enough to trigger heat

  51. Thanks, TK.

    Well, my theory holds up for now. While the heat and humidity and summer have hit Boston, Ireland’s summer is over (for now; well, probably for good given the weather history in that part of the world). Gales, squalls, and temps mainly in the 50s and low 60s have returned, especially to western parts of the island. I warned my daughter when she said last week that “Ireland’s got the best weather, always sunny and in the low 70s, and it’s been that way for at least a month.” My warning was that Ireland’s prevailing weather is pretty rotten, and Boston’s is pretty nice for the most part. It’s just the way it is, so enjoy it while it lasts cause it won’t last for long.

    1. The people that were traumatized by a cool/wet May and first few days of June would NEVER survive Ireland. Night and day between here and there.

      1. So true. I’ve experienced entire summers in the Netherlands with barely a sunny day. People would say, “did you remember that day in July, I think it was the 7th, that the sun was out all day and it was nice?”

        Visiting Concord today I was also reminded of the fact that the British (and Irish conscripts) had to endure our extremes of heat and cold without proper clothing (at least not for summer heat) and of course without the amenities of consistent heat source in winter and cooling source in summer. Pretty brutal to walk around Concord or Boston in a woolen redcoat on a 95F day, something they had never experienced before. Nor had they experienced major snowstorms or serious cold (below 15F).

  52. Watching Barry’s morning forecast, the simulated radar he showed looked a lot more active than the ones I saw last night. Front does seem to be a couple hours later in arrival now.

  53. Good morning. Taking a look around the model severe weather parameters, I see a mixed bag. Euro is the least robust whereas the GFS is spelling AMEGEDON!
    The Highest resolution CMC (CMC-HRDPS / Quebec (mesh: 2.5 km interpolated to 5 km) is almost as robust as the GFS.

    Both that CMC and GFS have Cape in excess of 4,000 Joules for Eastern MA.
    COD has tornado as the threat with the GFS and the CMC has EHI of 2.0, indicating the same.

    Could get dicey, but then again, the Euro is marginally severe at best as are
    the NAMS.

    Last night Eric indicated that the front was slowing down and he predicted MORE
    widespread thunderstorms of sufficient duration to cause flooding problems.

    We shall see. It looks to be an interesting afternoon no matter how you slice it. 😀

  54. I’m splitting the difference. Keeping the activity less solid but allowing it in most areas.

    New post!

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