Saturday Forecast

33 Comments

9:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 17-21)
As we head toward the summer solstice, we will see some unsettled weather due to some slow-moving fronts in the region, first a warm front crawling east northeastward across the region today, holding clouds, some fog, and patchy drizzle in the region. Also this front being in the vicinity can generate scattered showers at any time, though most of the day will be rain-free. The front finally gets through the area tonight and we will spend Sunday and Monday in the warm sector between it and a cold front to the west, which will also take its time getting here. During our time in the warm air, it will be humid as well and a spot shower can’t be ruled out, but the main threat of showers/thunderstorms will arrive from west to east Monday as the front gets close. We’ll have to keep an eye on the timing of this front and our ability to realize any severe weather potential. This front will be slow to exit Tuesday, which will still be somewhat humid with a shower risk. And yet another front may generate a few more showers/storms Wednesday.
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and patchy drizzle in the morning. Isolated showers. Highs 68-76. Wind light SE to S.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. More humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 75-80 South Coast, 80-86 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms through mid afternoon then a better chance of showers/storms west to east late. Humid. Highs 77-82 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 22-26)
Generally progressive flow expected with broad passing trough bringing the greatest risk of unsettled weather mid to late period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 27-JULY 1)
Similar pattern expected to continue, passing shower threats, generally seasonable but somewhat variable temperatures.

33 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    1. Yes ….. Occasionally the disk of the sun is showing through the clouds ….

      Vicki. I was down in Humarock at a colleague’s house for a year end celebration party. The ocean views were amazing.

  4. Up to 61.2 at Summit of Mt Washington.

    Wonder if the rain area developing around NYC makes it towards the local area later today ?

  5. Good afternoon. Was so busy today that I didn’t even turn on the computer
    until now.

    Up to 71 here with dp 62. Can feel the humidity rising. Disk of the sun visible from time to time. Fairly bright out.

    I see slight risk of severe from SPC right about to Boston, but as per usual the main
    threat is inland. There is time for that to change. Even enhanced out by the Berkshires.

    Here is the map from the SPC for Monday:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif?1497719951871

    1. There is plenty of time for things to change, but right now I do not see
      a severe set up for us Monday and/or Tuesday.

      GFS & Euro severe parameters are weak at best the the NAM virtually non-existent. Frankly, I am not sure what the SPC is looking at.

      Their SREF product does show some possibilities. So, I dunno. Will continue to monitor.

  6. Sure would appreciate some input into around noon tomorrow. We are hoping for outside lunch since all four families have some form of virus. Inside just spreads the wealth. 🙁

  7. Instability on the 12z runs of the American models keeps the best instability western parts of MA and CT where the SPC has an enhanced risk for Monday. This to me has the feel where the storms will get into those western areas and then weaken as they move to the east.

  9. I think it was Longshot who was taking notice of the tropics yesterday; indeed, they are heating up a little. A tropical cyclone is likely to form over the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days, with its development odds at 80% over the next 5 days. That disturbance has been dubbed “Invest 93L”. A very typical early season development setup, it’s under high wind shear, but should slowly pull itself together into a lopsided tropical storm. Much further east, a tropical wave over the open Atlantic has a 60% chance to develop over 5 days (down from 70% earlier today). It would be highly unusual to see development in that area this early in the season. That disturbance, “Invest 92L”, is looking quite poor on satellite today; it looked better yesterday. Regardless of development, it poses little long term threat; the eastern Caribbean will destroy anything that remains of it.

    Also note that this season, NHC has the option of initiating advisories and their full suite of products on a tropical system before it can actually be classified as a tropical cyclone, if they feel development is likely and land areas will be impacted.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

      1. I’m not sure what the dew point is. I’ve been in Las Vegas when it was 110 before. Not too bad really.
        My DP today has run about 70. I love a 70 DP. I was working outside on the sprinkler system today. My glasses kept fogging up so I knew the DP was up there.

          1. We were in Spokane when it was 118 during the day and still 112 at 10:00 pm. Not typical for Spokane.

  12. Looking at 18z NAM pretty much matches the SPC enhanced risk outlook with the best instability Hudson River Valley of NY and western parts of MA and CT. Some of the sounding in those areas indicating tornado and Upton, NY mentioned that possibility of isolated tornado in their afternoon discussion. Will see if they keep the enhanced risk tomorrow or downgrade it to slight.

  13. I don’t think this is going to be much of a severe weather threat for you. Western parts of SNE different story.

  14. Here from Nantucket, not sure if anyone heard of the Highline ferry crash last night, it was the last one and it was foggy and extremely windy, I am actually surprised they were running the Highline.

    In other news, I am loving it down on Nantucket, Biking, swimming, snorkeling, kayaking and meeting new people have been awesome everyone is so nice down here also hearing some of the awesome stories from some long term nantucketers. Its a whole other world out here even though its so close to Boston respectively.
    honestly sometime this summer, I am wondering if anyone would want to come on to the island have lunch or an early dinner at some point?

  15. Right now in Carlsbad, NM its 100 degrees but the DP is 10 degrees. Relative humidity is 3%

    1. Notice that they have moved the slight area farther West, back from the coast?
      Not surprised at that at all.

    2. Up early today or Late to sleep???? 😀

      Me, I’m up early because I am headed pout shortly to go fishing today.
      I’d be gone already, but the bait shop isn’t open yet. 😀 😀 😀

      Although I have a tackle box full of artificial bait, lures of all sorts and sizes,
      I prefer fishing with live bait; Namely night crawlers and today also live shiners.
      😀

  17. Up early. Enjoy fishing today.
    I am going to be watching the radar tomorrow afternoon and see what happens since it looks my area the storms could pack a punch. I even noticed in the discussions from Upton and Taunton they mentioned the possibility of a brief isolated tornado for western areas of SNE and North and West of NYC with the main threat damaging winds.

    1. I hope you see what you want without anyone getting hurt.

      You may get something, but here???? Blah blah blahdy blah blah blah AS per usual.

      Latest runs show it staying dry here until 5 or 6 AM Tuesday while Western
      sections experience numerous training Showers and Thunder Storms.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZgzRfa-xPQ
      In addition to severe, I could see flooding as a major issue out there.

  18. Will see if the activity weakens as it moves in to the western areas. The atmosphere is so loaded with moisture with these high dew points which could lead to localized flooding where the storms go over and over the same area.

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