Monday Forecast

102 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)
A slow-moving cold front will approach today and basically wash out over the region Tuesday, but will be the focus for some shower and thunderstorm development at times, mainly well to the west today moving eastward tonight, then a few more triggering at times Tuesday. Before that, a brief shower may occur in southeastern MA this morning along an old dew point boundary. Another cold front will sweep through early Wednesday but probably without any shower activity, introducing less humid air for midweek. Humidity and a shower risk returns at the end of the week.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy early with isolated showers southeastern MA. Partly sunny with a slight risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms later morning on. Humid. Highs 77-82 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms moving in from west to east but weakening with time, though some could still be strong. Humid. Lows 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Showers/thunderstorms are most likely southeastern MA early in the day and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible anywhere in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 75-82. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)
Generally progressive flow expected with broad passing trough bringing the greatest risk of unsettled weather early through mid period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29-JULY 3)
Progressive flow should continue but with a little more of a broad ridge moving in, with a warmer/drier trend overall.

102 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Thank you TK. Super YUCKY out there. MY Yuck meter is reading very high. Not in danger of breaking, but high none-the-less.

    Very overcast here in the City this morning. How long will it take to break out
    in at least partial sunshine????

    1. Seems to be brightening up here. I guess partial sunshine will be coming
      along shortly. 😀

  5. Interesting, Now that I am in the office and a more recent HRRR as run, it has
    backed off on the convection for Eastern Sections. I think it Burped early. 😀

    1. Or gray. 😀

      Grey and gray are both accepted in the English language. They refer to a color of a neutral tone between black and white, and can also be used metaphorically to convey gloom and dullness. However, gray is the more popular spelling in the US, while grey reigns supreme in the UK.Jun 10, 2015

    2. Thanks, MassBay for the jazz music. I love jazz; I lean more towards classical nowadays but still love jazz.

  10. Trivia Quiz.

    Which one of these American authors had a brother who was a weatherman?
    A. Kurt Vonnegut
    B. J.D. Salinger
    C. Dr. Seuss
    D. Jack Kerouac

    Answer later today. I most certainly got this wrong.

    1. I haven’t a clue at all, so I guess I have a 25% chance, eh?

      Ok, I’ll go with: D. 😀 😀 😀

  12. Thanks, TK.

    Not used to this sticky weather. It’s not hot but actually coolish; kind of damp. Best word for it – yucky. A/C will be going on soon.

  14. Latest HRRR showing quite a convective complex moving Enveloping most of SNE and moving into the Boston Area around 4 AM or so. Wondering IF flash flood watch/advisory isn’t shifted right to the coast later on?

    Then again, 3KM NAM not so much, so who the bleep knows.

      1. Why would I be surprised by that???

        We need to come up with a great acronym for the HRRR.

        And the H part would have to be something like
        Horrendous or Horrible. (Or something better!)
        Not sure on the Rs

        Horrendous, revolting, reprehensible reporting

        Let’s have a contest. 😀

  17. Somewhat hard to believe with dps in the low 70s that any heavy rains will weaken by the time they reach eastern sections. I would think that they would easily hold together.

  19. Instability sunshine in Sudbury now.

    I agree with Philip – I don’t see how we could miss any heavy rains. It just feels so wet out there.

  20. Here is another NYC radar loop. I might be nuts, but there appears to be yet more
    convection now than there was 15-30 minutes ago. Well, I suppose that makes sense. 😀

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=24964770&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    I guess these are what we could call “Discrete Cells”? no?

    If so, I’d be on the look out for rotating storms out that way.

  21. As mentioned above, here is the Severe Thunderstorm Watch:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0354.html

    Note it ends with Worcester County. Is there a chance it gets expanded Eastward?

    Probably not, however, I suppose it can’t be entirely ruled out. The slight area goes just about to the coast with Marginal beyond that. So I could possible see another watch box issued for areas farther East than the current, although I don’t expect it at
    this time. New update from SPC coming out fairly soon.

  22. Logan currently 79 with dp 72. Winds directly out of the South.
    If you want thunderstorms in Eastern MA, that is NOT the best wind direction.
    Want more SW to WSW. South is a T-storm killer, or at least it usually is this
    time of year. The waters South of us are just not warm enough yet.

    Station 44017 (LLNR 665) – MONTAUK POINT – 23 NM SSW of Montauk Point, NY
    Water Temp 61.3

    Station 44097 – Block Island, RI (154) Image indicating link to RSS feed of recent meteorological observations for station 44097
    Water temp: 59.4

    Station 44066 – Texas Tower #4 – 75 NM East of Long Beach, NJ Image indicating link to RSS feed of recent meteorological observations for station 44066
    Water temp: 63

    Station 44008 (LLNR 827) – NANTUCKET 54NM Southeast of Nantucket Image indicating link to RSS feed of recent meteorological observations for station 44008
    Water temp: 55.9

  23. I just noticed something. IN the SPC day 1 outlook, they list Boston as being
    in the slight zone:

    Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
    ENHANCED 56,169 40,137,782 New York, NY…Philadelphia, PA…Baltimore, MD…Washington, DC…Newark, NJ…
    SLIGHT 121,800 24,082,542 Charlotte, NC…Boston, MA…Raleigh, NC…Greensboro, NC…Durham, NC…
    MARGINAL 315,035 31,187,169 Virginia Beach, VA…Atlanta, GA…Norfolk, VA…Birmingham, AL…Chesapeake, VA…

  25. Screw the models imo for eastern sections, think we get into some heavy rain and severe storms but nothing too crazy like our west.

    1. Personally, I think they moved the slight area just a tad bit farther East.
      Unfortunately referring to the previous update now shows the same
      as it was a link to SPC and not a link to just that image.

  28. I have had the sun out for a couple hours. Only adding to instability. Severe Thunderstorm Warning northwest of me. Seeing if any of these discrete cells show signs of rotation.

  30. Now its just watching the radars and see what develops. There has already been a couple warned storms. I have not seen anything close to SNE rotating just yet.
    Will see if this tweet from Meteorologist John Bagioni happens for the western areas.
    While strong to severe storm initiation is well underway, strengthening wind fields late this afternoon & evening should enhance the setup!

      1. That is showing signs of weak rotation. As it intensifies, who
        knows. Just keep an eye on that one.

  35. Did not look at the time it was posted but gives an idea of that low level shear out in the western areas.

  36. JPDave thanks. Those discrete storms ahead of the main line got to watch closely with the low level shear in place. We already have seen weak rotation in some storms. The sun was out for a couple hours only destabilizing the atmosphere further.
    To the west of that storm looks like a line is forming of thunderstorms.

  37. New mesoscale discussion issued by SPC: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1096.html

    Interesting notes re:Worcester County and north: SUMMARY…Thunderstorms accompanied by locally heavy rain, frequent
    lightning and potentially damaging wind gusts will overspread the
    region through 4-6 PM EDT.

    DISCUSSION…Insolation has warmed surface temperatures through the
    lower/middle 80s within a narrow pre-frontal corridor across
    interior southern New England through the higher terrain of
    western/northern Maine. This appears to be contributing to mixed
    layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg, and likely will provide
    the focus for the most vigorous thunderstorm development through
    20-22Z. This will be accompanied by the risk for potentially
    damaging surface gusts, particularly from near/northwest of
    Worcester through areas near/west and north of Manchester/Concord
    NH, where it appears that ambient southerly 850 mb flow has
    increased in excess of 40 kt.

  38. Filtered blue sky with lots of solid cloud cover here. 79 with 70 DP. Wind is crazy – into the 20s. From SW.

  41. So far everything is going along as expected…

    No surprises. I do have a lot of people asking me in various places where their thunderstorms are, but they are not in areas that were supposed to see much of anything this afternoon.

    1. Well we know I am in an area where they are supposed to be…..when will we see them? 🙂 🙂 🙂 😉

      1. Several hours away from you I believe. You are in an area that my concern was timing and south wind. I think you’ll see a weakened version of what is currently in southeastern NY / western CT.

        1. Oh – well, that is good news. I was kidding that I was in the area. And the south wind is indeed very strong. Even if there is a slight chance, I get excited. Thanks, TK.

  42. NWS Taunton is having some server issues. Their radar displays often without the warnings on it even when you have it set to do so. Hopefully this will be fixed soon. I know they kept the radar up today instead of bringing it down but they may need it tomorrow too…

  43. Line of severe storms to my west. Will see if holds as my area under a severe thunderstorm warning to 5:30pm

  44. There is a warning for southern Litchfield until 5:30. It has gotten dark and haring the rumbles of thunder.

    1. Thanks JJ. Wonder why it didn’t show on my radar. Will have to use a second radar

      Yep. Just checked on RadarScope and there is still a warning there. One I typically use must be dependent on Taunton.

  45. A couple of hours ago I drove from the Berkshires to Boston with the front and storms right behind me. They were not moving particularly fast.

    Terrible news from Ohio. Otto Warmbier has died. A callous, murderous regime in North Korea is responsible for Otto’s death. North Korea is far more dangerous than any threat we currently face globally. They have zero regard for human life, are hermetically sealed off from the world, and have nuclear weapons which they would use to destroy South Korea, Japan, and U.S. islands in the Pacific. The dictatorship is hell-bent on reaching the U.S. mainland. We ignore NK at our peril. Administration after Administration has essentially ignored this threat. I do hope Trump prioritizes it, above Iran and ISIS. NK won’t just kill hundreds in random terror attacks. They will slaughter hundreds of thousands or even millions of people. They’ve killed millions of their own people – as have virtually all communist regimes worldwide (China, Russia, Eastern Europe, Ethiopia, Cambodia, etc …).

  47. The warnings Rw back on radar I like to use. That line is Marching west. Our clouds are now moving west also. At quite a pace

  48. Hello.

    Was out of commission for a while as we lost power at work and I was doing much phone work prior to that, so My phone battery was dead and I didn’t get a chance
    to recharge it before the power went out.

    Looks like SPC expanded the watch just a little more Eastward, but still does not
    include Boston, but strangely I believe it does include Cambridge it being in
    Middlesex county. Counties are a STOOOOOPID way of doing it. Basically it stops
    “just” West of the City. Anyway, the line of storms which appears to be marching
    Eastward at a steady pace, seems to be weakening. So what else is new?

    1. They didn’t need to expand it at all. Once again SPC shows how poorly a job they do forecasting thunderstorms in New England.

      SAK says it all the time. I say it all the time. It’s 100% true.

  49. Is there still a warning on this line as it moves east? Not sure if the error is happening when I visit the NWS Boston page.

    1. As of 7:15, one left in NH, one left in southern CT, and that should about do it. These are behaving as expected.

      1. Arghhhhhhh why do you always have to be right. Storms weakening as they approach here 🙁

        🙂

          1. Awfully close, my friend.

            And I went out to listen for thunder and it started to rain as soon as i walked out door. Booooo

  50. SPC wanted to push that watch into Essex, too 😉

    Middlesex was the compromise between them and Taunton. All in all, not too bad of a day. Storms were strong to severe where they were expected to be so, and have weakened to the east. One bowing segment just southeast of Worcester heading in the general direction of Boston. We’ll see if it makes it.

  51. Well, just as always in these situations, 495 is acting like a barrier. One batch of storms fell apart the moment it hit the highway. Hopefully the one segment in central MA that is still heavy can survive east.

    1. It’s that damn popcorn pavement. It messes with the inflow pattern for the storms. 😉

      Yes I’m kidding…

  53. Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 has become Tropical Storm Bret today. Historic in that it is the earliest named storm on record in the Atlantic “Main Development Region.” It’s impacting northern Venezuela tonight and will fall apart in the next day or two. Also, the NHC is now issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 3, which is in the Gulf of Mexico and likely to become “Cindy”. This one will be of more consequence to the US, with heavy rains likely along the northern Gulf Coast for the next few days.

        1. Great here – now I’m willing an almost purple blob on radar to go right over you in Sutton. Not sure if any lightening is attached though – we had a couple of loud rumbles here about 20 min ago.

  55. Answer to Trivia Quiz.

    Which one of these American authors had a brother who was a weatherman?
    A. Kurt Vonnegut
    B. J.D. Salinger
    C. Dr. Seuss
    D. Jack Kerouac

    The answer is A. I believe that Kurt’s brother may have been the “discoverer” of how to iodine the air to create rain / snow.

  56. Every year when we go to the Vineyard we bring back at least one or two “treasures” from my favorite store Sanctuary. We have their hangings full of wisdom all over our home. Here is this year’s favorite which made me think specifically of this group and its amazing ability to rejoice in nature and the weather in all its forms, and to take the time to make some old fashioned conversation, friendships and offer kindness to one another.

    Thanks again to JPDave for teaching me how to post photos!

    http://imgur.com/MUfGtL7

    1. Wow. I LOVE this. Thank you for sharing. Much in the window but nothing in the room. I’ll be darned.

  58. well, the rain was a POOFORAMA in the City. A whopping 0.04 inch to this point.
    How much comes overnight, IF ANY, remains to be seen. 😀

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