Thursday Forecast

55 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)
High pressure brings great weather today, but don’t get used to it. A warm front crosses the region early Friday and opens the door to humid air which will flow into the region along with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm a couple times during the day Friday. A cold front will approach the region Friday night but may take all day Saturday to cross, allowing moisture associated with the remains of Tropical Storm Cindy from the Gulf of Mexico to become involved. This will increase the threat of significant rain across the region Friday night, areas of which may linger into at least part of Saturday. For now will optimistically say that enough dry air arrives by Sunday for fair weather though some cloudiness may be around. Another trough approaches the region Monday and may bring another risk of showers.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 60-67. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms though much of the time will be rain-free. Increasingly humid. Highs 75-81 coast, 82-87 interior. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Showers likely, some possibly heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 64-71. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27-JULY 1)
A broad trough moves through the region during the first part of the period with episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms favoring June 27-28. Drier weather follows as the trough moves to the east. Temperatures near to below normal through mid period, then warming up.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)
Progressive flow should continue but with a little more of a broad ridge moving in, with limited shower chances and temperatures near to above normal.

55 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. I hope it doesn’t mess people up, but I am OK with it as long as Sunday
      is good. As a matter of fact, I am hoping for monster rains Friday night into Saturday.

      Why? Good question. I am operating on a theory for my fishing and that
      being that just below the Dams on Rivers, large schools of fish gather to
      feed. (I am presuming the much higher than normal waters concentrate
      the food for those fish and down stream, not so much).

      In any case, I have been to the same spot with HIGH water this Spring
      5 times, 4 by myself and once with my wife. In those 5 trips we have caught
      62 large mouth Bass, 80% of them 12 inches or more, some more than a foot and 1/2 long. That is simply unheard of around these parts and I am convinced it is due to the high water just below the dam.

      SO if we get that rain, the water will be nice and high and I am hopeful
      to hit once again. As soon as the water recedes, those fish are LONG GONE.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    TK, could you share your thoughts on the possibility of a
    Predecessor Rainfall Even? for Tomorrow night.
    The NWS seems to think it is at least a possibility and since you mention
    the possibility of heavy rain tomorrow night, I am wondering If you share the same concerns?

    If I read the literature correctly, it takes 4 inches of rain to qualify for a predecessor
    rainfall event. That is a crap load of rain, and frankly, I don’t see that at this point, but
    who knows.

    If you don’t mind, I am re-posting a couple of mine from earlier today.

    JpDave says:
    June 22, 2017 at 6:17 AM
    Interesting from the Taunton NWS:

    Friday night…

    Wet, muggy, mild. An anomalous setup attributable to the remnants of
    Cindy. Roughly a +4-5 standard deviation (SD) of H85 moisture flux
    and +3 SD of precipitable waters which exceed record highs recorded
    at Chatham MA which average around 2 inches but are forecast around
    2.25 inches. Will need to closely monitor any focusing mechanisms
    which can put the squeeze on the atmosphere and possibly yield a
    predecessor rainfall event.

    For those inclined to read up on Predecessor rainfall events, here is a rather in-depth paper on the subject from the American Meteorological Journal:

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3243.1
    Reply
    JpDave says:
    June 22, 2017 at 6:24 AM
    This is more user-friendly and has Graphics.
    This is a link to a powerpoint presentation. It’s actually very nicely done and really explains this. Very interesting.

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt
    Reply

  5. Thanks Tk. Is it probably a wise decision to call my customers & cancel work for this Saturday Ugh. There is a lot that’s goes into a cancellation especially with my Crew. Scheduled work is 8-6. Is sundsy maybe a 50/5o shot as well . You nailed last Saturday for me let’s see what you say . Thanks bud .

  6. Back from my trip and trying to get a feel for the pattern. I’ve got a strange schedule at work for the next few days, covering for someone else’s time off, so I don’t know how much I’ll be on.

    For those interested, I have posted my pictures from my trip online: https://goo.gl/photos/zcXaLCAYProVyov68

    The locations we visited, in order (to give you an idea of what you’re seeing):

    Galveston
    Minute Maid Park (Sox win! Fireworks after the game!)
    Space Center Houston
    Kemah Boardwalk (Kemah, TX)
    City Tour of KC
    Kauffman Stadium (Sox lose)
    Rock and Brews in Overland Park, KS
    Country Club District of KC

    In between Kemah and KC, there is a picture taken from KC Airport. Right next to the runway, there was a herd of cows grazing in a field. Farm country starts right next to the airport.

    Rock and Brews is a chain of brewpubs with a rock and roll theme. They are partially owned by Gene Simmons and Paul Stanley. As a member of the Kiss Army for nearly 40 years, this was a place that I absolutely had to try, and it was well worth it.

  9. As far as the NWS and the predecessor event. I think they’re all wet. 😉
    Kidding but not completely. The information is good but I think this particular instance is not quite as conducive to a full blown event. Too much overland travel and not the best trajectory.

    1. Thank you TK and that is precisely why I was asking.

      I guess, we’ll find out. Let’s see if they back off with the next update. 😀

  11. Whoever did the most recent update did NOT change a damn word from
    the previous discussion re: tomorrow night and possible predecessor rainfall event:

    Friday night…

    Wet, muggy, mild. An anomalous setup attributable to the remnants of
    Cindy. Roughly a +4-5 standard deviation (SD) of H85 moisture flux
    and +3 SD of precipitable waters which exceed record highs recorded
    at Chatham MA which average around 2 inches but are forecast around
    2.25 inches. Will need to closely monitor any focusing mechanisms
    which can put the squeeze on the atmosphere and possibly yield a
    predecessor rainfall event.

    1. That’s because the 10am update has ZERO new info to use to update the discussion from the previous one, which was issued at 7am. They only updated the near-term section, where it says “1000 AM update…”

      1. Yes, I Get that, but forever and a day, it will continue to annoy
        me that they repeat the previous discussion. The new shift
        doesn’t even have an opinion to add? Something? anything?
        Nope, just cut and paste.

        I just don’t like the way they operate.

        That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

        1. They have no new data for that section, so no, there’s nothing to add. In the old days, they used to just send updates that literally were just things like “no real changes to forecast”, but if you didn’t see the previous discussion, you had no idea what they were doing, so they started leaving the old discussion in place and highlighting the updated parts.

          1. Yes, as I said, I understand that.

            But that being said, Perhaps it is a new shift?
            OR perhaps someone from the same shift
            has been thinking it over, going over analogs or whatever and now has something to add,
            even if there were no new data per se.

            I want things a certain way and when they are not, I am easily irritated. 😀

            1. We are from the same school of thought, JPD. Why isn’t that a surprise? I am not a fan of cut and paste either. I rarely hear one met not add information to another’s even when on the same network.

              Or do as TK does and state that nothing has changed. Although, I rarely see TK not add to a discussion.

              For instance….elaborate on this….if they are monitoring them closely, explain what they are if they have not changed.

              “Will need to closely monitor any focusing mechanisms
              which can put the squeeze on the atmosphere and possibly yield a
              predecessor rainfall event.”

              1. You are all forgetting one HUGE detail. These discussions are NOT written for the general public. It is to explain their thinking to the other NWS offices and to meteorologists, so that forecasts, especially between NWS offices, can be coordinated.

      1. Agree – I absolutely love the expressions on their faces in the picture! Wonderfully respectful way to make a point…

  13. 1:51 PM update. Same ole story:

    Wet, muggy, mild. An anomalous setup attributable to the remnants of
    Cindy. Roughly a +4-5 standard deviation (SD) of H85 moisture flux
    and +3 SD of precipitable waters which exceed record highs recorded
    at Chatham MA which average around 2 inches but are forecast around
    2.25 inches. Will need to closely monitor any focusing mechanisms
    which can put the squeeze on the atmosphere and possibly yield a
    predecessor rainfall event.

    Copy and paste.

    1. Likely because they are waiting for the ECMWF. The portion of the forecast beyond the 1st 24-36 hours does not get updated until 3-4pm or later, after they’ve seen all of the guidance, including the ensembles. This really isn’t that difficult to understand.

      1. If you insist on the last word, you can have it, but you have not
        succeeded in changing my mind.

  15. SAK is correct here.
    I’ll go further, I’m not even in favor of having forecaster discussions so easily available to the public. It’s not anyone here I’m worried about misunderstanding them, but plenty would and then misrepresent the information.

    1. Actually, before the internet, those discussions weren’t available to the public at all…correct?

        1. Not always for the better.

          There are COUNTLESS fake weather sources not only undermining SAK’s and my profession, but even worse, putting the public in danger with very bad information being taken as “official”. Potentially harmful or even fatal results are made more likely with this going on.

          1. We can cite examples if needed. I hope not to have to give these sites any publicity if I can avoid it, however.

          2. I agree. However on this blog I really don’t think people (especially someone like Dave) don’t need to be told 20 times (yeah I know I’m going overboard) about something. It’s a turn off and beating a dead horse. Just my 2 cents and now I’ll return back to lurking mode.

              1. As do I. It is difficult to jump into a blog where so many established bloggers post. I hope people lurking know that all comments are welcome and valid.

    2. I understand the concern about Misrepresenting the information for certain.
      Totally agree on that issue, however, I still have my other concerns and I will continue to have them. 😀

  16. Same idea about this weekend. I’m concerned the Saturday rain lasts longer than projected on the current models.

    Sunday, probably mainly dry, but I don’t think I can completely rule out a shower threat.

    1. Sounds fine to me…a rainy Saturday at home catching up on some SDR recordings 🙂

  17. When it comes to the AFD, like it or not, it being publicly available is not going away. But there are definitely pros and cons.

    I didn’t agree with the PRE terminology from last night’s discussion for the exact reasons TK stated earlier, and that language was removed from the afternoon discussion. However, it would not surprise me at all if there is at least a narrow band of 2″ or so of rain over the next 48-72 hours associated with the remnants of Cindy. But it’s not really a PRE.

      1. I’m not sure. I wouldn’t imagine so, I think it’s more about the pattern itself, not how much rain actually falls, but TK may know otherwise. But they often do feature very heavy rainfall amounts.

              1. Sorry. Small screen. I thought you supplies PPT. It is what I was referring to. But Wx you always have great info

                Thank you JPD. Sorry for the error

          2. Ah, so I think what happened there is the authors of that particular study restricted their research to only PREs producing 4″ or more of rain, which would be the most “classic” PREs. However, that doesn’t mean you can’t have ones which produce less rainfall. Thanks for the PowerPoint link, I saw you posted it earlier as well, I definitely plan to go into that and the study behind it in more detail when I get a chance, I think it’s a very interesting phenomenon.

            1. You may be correct. Seems pretty arbitrary and the study is now a few years old, but the PPT does describe it pretty well. You are more than welcome for the link.

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