Tuesday Forecast

154 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27-JULY 1)
Discussion later. Quick forecast update.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Showers eastern CT, western RI, south central to southeastern MA for a time this morning. Isolated to scattered midday and afternoon showers/thunderstorms, some strong storms possible. Highs 77-84. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with scattered showers/thunderstorms. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 58-64. Wind light SW to W.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy morning with a risk of isolated showers favoring Cape Cod, then mostly sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower/thunderstorm at night. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated thunderstorms. Humid. Lows from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s, cooler South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)
Showers/thunderstorms Sunday July 2, favoring the morning. Mainly dry July 3-4. A few showers/thunderstorms at times July 5-6 but otherwise mainly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)
Warm to hot, isolated showers/thunderstorms but mainly dry otherwise July 7-8. Better chance of showers/storms later in the period.

154 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK!

    I guess it appears that after Thursday HHH temps with unsettled at times will rule until further notice. BPS last day is tomorrow all because of 5 snow days. The last day was supposed to be last Wednesday. 🙁

    The 180-day rule STINKS! IMHO it should be as a guideline, not gospel!

    2. Saved me a week of camp :). My wife asked me in September if we should sign the boys up for camp this week and I said no we will have about 4-5 snow days 🙂 Our friends who sent kids this week were like how did you know. Ha ha

      2. Did folks who signed their kids up this week lose their money? I would never plan on camp starting the day school was predicted to get out. Yikes.

        1. No they just aren’t going to school, to be honest most teachers aren’t doing anything this week anyway. I know my oldest is watching movies 🙂

          1. I don’t think my grandkids did much of anything the last two weeks. They had field day and field trips and movies, etc. My oldest grandson loves school and would be happy if it went through the summer. Not so much the #2 grand 🙂

        2. School was supposed to be done last Wednesday so this week would have been the first week of camp.

    1. They keep marching that Marginal area Eastward.
      previously they didn’t have it at all. Then they had it in more Western Sections
      and now almost to the coast.

      1. Typically conservative forecasts at the start then tweaked with later shifts. Nothing surprising.

        Using this account off and on today. Other one is up, but it depends on my source location. 😉

  5. Showers moving up from the SW appear to be weakening.
    What affect will that have on PM convection?

    I am thinking it will help it be more favorable.

    1. It’s representing an axis of lift that will be one of two main focus areas for convection. It will probably go stationary then start to drift north northwest in the next few hours.

  6. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Watch out for severe storms this afternoon. Very cold mid level temps should support a lot of hail.

  9. Tweet from meteorologist Matt Noyes
    With relatively dry air in the atmosphere, that actually serves to enhance downdrafts inside of storm cores today, locally damaging gusts.

  11. The sun has been in and out after the earlier showers where I am.
    12z NAM over cooking some of the severe parameters for Fri.

    1. Morning fog & low clouds, partial sun, humid, highs 70-75. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm late Saturday and more likely the first to middle part of Sunday as it stands now. Not a wash-out.

  13. Getting bright out here in the City, but still overcast showing signs of perhaps
    becoming broken overcast, but not yet.

  16. Cells are firing up now. Pretty active radar to the west. Only rotation I see so far is some weak, broad stuff on the cell east of Leominster and Fitchburg.

    1. That is, if I’m interpreting the velocity scan right. Might just be something else that I’m seeing thinking it’s rotation.

  17. Special weather statement on that cell you mentioned. Moving quickly northeast at 40mph. Dime size hail 30mph wind gusts. Couple other storms in SNE with special weather statements but so far nothing has gone severe.

  18. The Special Weather Statement with the storm in parts of Hartford Tolland and Windham counties has wording that storm may intensify and become capable of producing damage.

  19. Just had a brief shower here in the City.

    As mentioned above, radar is active, however, the main axis for now is SW to NE
    across interior areas. We shall see IF the activity maintains and eventually moves Eastward. You can readily see the motion on the latest radar.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=24976447&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  20. SPC took down the mesoscale discussion and did NOT issue a watch. So much for that.
    Now let’s see what action we get despite them snubbing us.

  21. Looking at the radar your seeing couple lines of strong storms across SNE. So far none of these have reached warning criteria.

  25. Some of these storms are getting POTENT.

    Storm out by Springfield is showing broad rotation and very very heavy rain. Perhaps those echoes are large hail?

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.16956521739130434&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=1131.2820512820515&centery=322.56410256410254&transx=731.2820512820515&transy=82.56410256410254&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=24976483&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=N0S&frame=0&scale=0.16956521739130434&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=1131.2820512820515&centery=322.56410256410254&transx=731.2820512820515&transy=82.56410256410254&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=24976483&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  26. This may not the only day this week will be watching the radar and tracking storms. Enough instability on Fri being shown by the both 12z runs of the American models. The NAM as usual more aggressive with some of the severe parameters than the GFS>

  27. Lots of thunder here now with heavy rain. Looks like more to come. Will these storms stabilize the atmosphere from more storms later?

      1. You’re right. It’s very dark here again and I think we’re going to get another one. Just excited about the weather – sky is awesome – getting dark then light. Husband took some pictures but not coming out that good. Might try to post them.

  28. Just looking at tweet from Eric Fisher Lowell, MA getting hit by a pretty good thunderstorm with broad rotation producing hail.

  30. Some towns getting hit with some pretty potent storms even though they have remained below severe levels.

  31. Just heard a few rumbles of thunder.
    First storm warned on today in the Springfield area.

    1. There was a hook echo on radar with that storm and what looked like a solid couplet for a moment.

      1. Wish that were a video, then we’d know for sure.
        From the still it sure looks like a tornado, but impossible
        to confirm from a still. That fact that there was a hook and couplet in the exact same location lends credence to the possibility
        of a brief touch down. I wonder IF we will ever know on this one?

  34. My sister lives in Framingham and said the sun was out – this was about 10 mins. ago. It is very bright to our south and can see a yellow sky along the southern horizon. There is another line to our west with cells moving to the northeast but line seems to be generally moving east.

  36. Hopefully that pic I posted from Matt Noyes twitter page did not touch down and stayed in the air. If you look at it to me it looks like a funnel cloud.

  37. Sun is out in Sudbury but still pouring. Love this weather! As long as no damage or anything; sky really dark to east and south. Too many trees to see if there is any rainbow. But I think sun won’t last long – I think another line moving in soon. It got windy here, too.

  38. Lines seem to be jogging a tad east but not enough to reach Sutton. Blue sky and puffy white clouds

  40. Quarter size hail the threat with that storm. Moving northeast quickly at 30mph. These storms today that have formed have been moving at a good clip and not sitting over an area.

    1. That’s the area I asked about above…..just NE of brimfield. It was indeed within the newest warning box

  42. From that radar image you posted would not be surprised if there is some rotation with that storm. SPC with their early afternoon update put out a 2% tornado chance for northern parts of CT and interior parts of MA.

  43. A tweet from Eric Fisher couple minutes ago is there is a little rotation with that storm.

  45. Now the storm ahead of the Brookfield storm, northeast of Worcester, has some tight rotation associated with it.

  46. Don’t like the looks of the storm just DW of Worcester.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.14347826086956522&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=839.090909090909&centery=511.81818181818176&transx=439.090909090909&transy=271.81818181818176&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=24976557&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=N0S&frame=0&scale=0.14347826086956522&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=839.090909090909&centery=511.81818181818176&transx=439.090909090909&transy=271.81818181818176&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=24976557&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    Some funky stuff beginning to happen. Ie some rotation.

  50. Good news for now from Eric the rotation has backed off near Clinton. Will see if this storm is cycling and gains strength again.

  51. Storm is cycling. Rotation starting to tighten up on that storm and moving toward Bolton and Boxboro according to Eric Fisher on twitter.

    1. I was just going to say that it looked that way.

      The one right on Worcester looks nasty as well.

  53. According to radar image Eric Fisher posted on twitter one inch diameter hail being indicated on radar for Worcester.

  54. Good heavens one big line of cells right after another marching NE. They are still west of here but there are some darker clouds moving in W to E

  55. Surprisingly, the only severe weather reports are a couple of hail reports in Central Mass despite all the supercells that have been forming.

    1. This would probably be a major severe weather outbreak if there was more instability to tap into.

    2. T warning just expired also. Even I am surprised. If I can see something on radar, you know it is obvious 🙂

    1. Sure looks that way. Friends are York, ME, but it looks as if the strongest lines are splitting east and west of them….so far.

      1. Question though. Since the cells were traveling basically the same path, do they eventually rob the atmosphere of strength and settle down as it appears they are doing?

  57. I think at least part of the reason Eastern sections have remained dry
    is due to the near SOUTHERLY wind. Looks like SSW at Logan. 200 Degrees, I believe.

  58. Torrential rain, street flooding, thunder, lightning, and tons of hail in Wethersfield CT. It has literally been hailing on and off for 20 min straight now. Storms are training over the same area here in Hartford County. I’ll post some pictures when I get back to the office.

  59. It’s funny how far away these storms appear on radar, yet I can clearly see them
    from my office window. Pretty cool, actually.

  61. Is that cell over the Assabet River area just below Concord as strong as it appears to me? My niece is in Concord and will be heading to Marlboro soon. I am worried about her driving

    1. WOW! I took my eye off of that one for a few minutes and it blew up again,
      That one is NASTY. Looks like BIG hail.

      2. Those strong echoes are 65 dbz echoes. I found this:

        The values of 60 to 65 dBZ is about the level where ¾” hail can occur.

        1. I think that storm has 1 inch HAIL.
          That could be treacherous driving. Just hearing it smash the car could cause a driver reaction that could have
          dire consequences. Smart move.

  62. Skies are getting dark in Wilmington. NWS just issued a severe warning for the large cell in between 495 and 95 warning about quarter size(half inch) hail. Looks like we’re going to be hit for a 2nd time today.

  66. I’m going on a local chase..will report back later.

    Already had a weak wall cloud go by with that meso in Lexington earlier. It was very weak though.

  68. I’m in Concord at the office – hail here. Vicki – definitely recommend to your niece that she wait a bit – it should pass soon.

  70. Storm now in NE Connecticut revving up. Vicki “could” be headed towards or close
    to Sutton.

    1. Thank you, JPD. We just had a massive clean the garage on my side….I don’t use garage….so I could pull my car in. I think it could be a false alarm but better to be safe.

  71. Dime size hail with that storm you mentioned JPDave and 30 mph winds according to special weather statement issued. Storm may intensify.

  73. We had about 3 storms – the last one we briefly had pea-sized hail. Getting dark again! Looks like we’re getting another one. And there’s thunder now. And heavy rain. Seems like the same areas getting the storms, ‘though I think Eric Fisher said they will eventually move more south.

  74. Meanwhile an absolutely beautiful afternoon here in Hingham…will be interesting to see if we get anything later.

  75. Also Ice out in Kimmirut over the past couple of days. And it looks like a really nice warm up (for them) later this week. http://www.kimmirutweather.com/

    Wednesday
    Mainly cloudy. High 9. UV index 4 or moderate.
    Wednesday night
    Clearing in the evening. Low plus 4.
    Thursday
    Sunny. High 19.
    Thursday night
    Clear. Low 9.
    Friday
    Sunny. High 15.
    Friday night
    Clear. Low 7.
    Saturday
    Sunny. High 14.
    Saturday night
    Clear. Low 6.

  77. We are getting another storm. Heavy rain and lots of thunder. The line has been training over the same area it seems for hours. But it does look like it wants to start sagging south. And there’s more out west, too. It got so dark in one of the storms we got we had to put on the lights. Interesting day weather-wise for sure. Except for those to the south who for the time being where it has been quiet.

    1. So cool rainshine.

      Just a taste of it here with one potent storm. Some small hail. But loud thunder and awesome lightning

  78. I detest the window screens in this house. They are fine mesh so the rain forms sheets and blocks my view. I have to flick them and that gets a bit messy inside

  79. Totally unrelated heads up that ransomware virus – petya – has been spreading globally today. Merck and DL piper hit among other large firms. Be extra cautious on line and with opening any links or attachments.

  80. About to get pounded again…now back at the office in Manchester, CT. The coverage of these storms and the amount of hail they are throwing down today is impressive.

  82. Nice shot Vicki. Huge rainbow over Hartford now on the traffic cameras as well.

    It is pouring again here with torrential rain, lightning and wind, yet the sun is completely out in the western sky.

  83. Another big line forming in Western/Central Mass after a long day of rain north and west of the Metro.

    1. Is that the one over northern worcester city?

      Nothing here but I’m hearing some distant rumbles

  86. Very busy, but also very fun, day at the NWS today. Latest LSR is below, I worked on this much of the late afternoon, updating as new reports came in. Lots of hail reports but mainly at or under 1″ diameter. Few flooding and wind damage reports also.

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=LSR&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    A couple of those storms earlier came very close to getting a tornado warning, but ultimately holding off on that was the right call. Impossible to tell what the Matt Noyes photo showed without seeing a video of it. No way to tell if it was rotating. Probably was not. I was impressed with the areal storm coverage though.

    1. Interesting seeing all those reports come in through HAM radio, didn’t know it was quite that active with the Internet in the position that it is.

      1. Yep, we have an extremely active amateur radio network. Many of our reports are gathered via the radios by our Skywarn coordinator Rob Macedo, whom TK mentioned the other day.

  87. Incredible hail from the warned storm that just moved through Coventry, CT. I’m still at work right now but my friend (who lives right around the corner from me) just sent me this photo:

    https://s10.postimg.org/kgfbzkpax/IMG_5722.jpg

    Looks like a blizzard! Even worse than what I saw in Wethersfield earlier from the first line of storms.

  88. What came through here this evening was a WIMPORAMA! 😀
    What else should I expect? 😀 😀 😀

    Looks like by the time the next one gets here another wimp or just plain showers.
    At least with the 1st one we had 3 or 4 bolts of lightning an accompanying thunder.

      1. Thanks, Keith. She got some better ones that she put on FB. She tagged me so you should be able to see

  92. I’d like to proudly say my nine year old granddaughter has been following radar all afternoon and has reported exactly where everything is and where warnings are. This nana is bursting her buttons.

  93. Oh boy, I don’t think anyone east of 495 will escape this line of storms. Batten down the hatches!

  94. Storm went through here in Wrentham. Some thunder, lightning, and the wind picked up a little. Brunt of it missed to the south, but a nice way to end the day. If North was around, he probably got the worst of it, maybe some hail.

    1. Yea brunt went to my south as well. Still some good rumbles of thunder but not enough to wake the little one. Radar however showed we were in the thick of it.

    2. While Sutton center was not in warning box, we ended up just being in it. Was awesome. But nothing compares to the repeated ones seen earlier by many

  98. Looking over twitter seeing some really beautiful storm pics. Not often do we get pictures like that within the immediate area.

  100. Long chase yesterday late afternoon to late evening, so I was wiped out. Pretty much got into everything in eastern MA right up until the final cells.

    Anyway, after a rest, I’ve been up since 4:45 and 2 hours later I have a new post up! No it didn’t take 2 hours to write it. I was catching up on things left unfinished yesterday. 🙂

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