Sunday Forecast

59 Comments

8:07AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)
Here’s your update for the holiday weekend and beyond and there are no big changes. The humidity lowers today behind a cold front, but it will be on the hotter side both today and Monday. One disturbance coming out of NY State this evening may trigger a few showers or a thunderstorm as far east as central MA and adjacent CT/NH but the risk is fairly low. An additional disturbance coming through from the west northwest may trigger a few showers or thunderstorms Monday afternoon favoring southern MA, CT, and RI, but these would be brief and passing in any areas that they occurred, so rather than alter any plans just know the possibility of this exists and plan for it. High pressure builds in with great weather for the holiday itself on Tuesday, and Wednesday as well. This high then slips offshore and humidity increases on Thursday.
TODAY: Partly cloudy southeast early, otherwise mostly sunny. Lowering humidity. Highs 78-86 South Coast, 87-93 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm central MA, northeastern CT, and southwestern NH. Lows 58-65. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms favoring southern MA southward. Highs 78-84 South Coast, 85-91 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Low humidity. Highs 77-85, coolest coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Evening temps in 70s. Overnight lows in 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-85.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s except some 70s South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)
A more humid period of weather with occasional showers/thunderstorms July 7. Drier and slightly cooler weather expected weekend of July 8-9 then warm and more humid air tries to come back and may bring some showers with its arrival July 10 and showers/thunderstorms with more humidity July 11. Timing is uncertain and confidence is low on this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)
Will watch for a high pressure ridge building in from the west which if it does so may set up a stretch of hot weather before the end of this period.

59 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

      1. Hahaha. You do have a way to go but You never know. The youngest one here will often wake up, play and then go back to sleep until after 8. The older two….not so much, but they will play quietly…..on occasion

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Dp down to 64 here. That is a good start. An hour ago, it was 68.

    1. Wow.

      Perhaps a really dumb question but does a waterspout act on water similar to a tornado on land and, as such, you wouldn’t want to be in its path?

      1. A tornado does over water for sure.
        A true water spout is different than a tornado, IMHO.

        I truly dislike calling a tornado over water a water spout.
        A tornado is a tornado is a tornado.

        Water spouts generally are a different animal.

      2. I recently saw the waterspout/tornado YouTube video down in part of Myrtle Beach from a few years ago, which was a larger version of this.

  6. Thanks, TK.

    Really interesting weather yesterday. Left Boston in searing heat at around 12:30pm. Arrived in Providence at 1:45pm and it was noticeably cooler, with lots of clouds. Then went to Jamestown where it was much cooler (70s and dropped down to the 60s by late afternoon), windy, cloudy, very foggy, and occasional spitting showers. Felt like SF in July on a cool day. Glad I brought my hoodie. Drove back to Boston, with my hoodie on, and of course when I got back it was 77F at 9pm, humid, and somewhat tropical. When I got out of my car people who saw me with a hoodie on must have thought – “where is he from, Phoenix?”

  7. Boy can I FEEEEEEEEEL the difference.

    DP down to 61 here. Not dry, but infinitely better than yesterday!!!!!

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  11. JP Dave … I completely agree on the waterspout comments. Not even a humble opinion, it’s a fact, a true “waterspout” and a true “tornado”, though similar, are formed by somewhat different processes. In other words, you don’t need a mesocyclone for a true waterspout, which also has a land counterpart, known as a landspout. But what happened yesterday was a tornado over water, formed by a mesocyclone in a rotating thunderstorm. You don’t need thunderstorms or very tall cumulonimbus for “spouts”. Just a regular old moderate to towering cumulus cloud will do.

        1. Hmm, actually on second glance, this one perhaps is
          border line. There is some nice growth here.

          Still looks like a spout to me.

        2. That’s a spout. They can occur under what is a non-rotating wall cloud type feature that just forms where the updraft is a little stronger and the LCL is a little lower. It’s somewhat deceiving from certain perspectives.

    2. TK I also greatly appreciate the explanation. We were talking about it at the bday/family party this afternoon

    2. Water Still a little cool for a hurricanes up here.

      However, there are about 10 days for additional warming
      assuming a system develops and moves in our general direction.
      If it develops, more likely an Ots scenario anyway and IF it did come up,
      highly likely it would just be a tropical storm and not a hurricane. 😀

      However, it warrants careful monitoring.

      1. I find the big temp change north of the Gulf Stream quite interesting. Fairly variable too. Looks like there’s quite a cold patch ESE of Nantucket.

        1. Sure is, but that wouldn’t have much of an effect on
          a system coming up the coast. Interesting none-the-less.

    1. Yes ….. OTS track.

      I’m thinking this is the thing the NHC has identified as having a 40% chance of development in the medium range, so there is something out there.

      1. I’m sure the steering currents will change a million times in the next 2 weeks and it will be interesting to see if a tropical system even develops and emerges from the area the GFS is developing it in.

            1. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html

              In recent past seasons, especially near the super el-Nino, there was tremendous shear in much of the tropics.

              This year, there’s some (like with the trof in the Caribbean), but the Atlantic doesn’t look too unfriendly. There’s a lot of dry air it will have to overcome, still, with less shear, I think this is one that has a chance.

  15. Made a tweak for a disturbance in NY that may fire off a few isolated showers/storms that have a shot at reaching some areas well west of Boston this evening.

    1. No, unless it strikes a mysterious floating city. 😉

      A true waterspout, or landspout, is almost always weaker than their mesocyclone-spawned counterparts.

  17. The NHC has increased the development odds for the Cape Verde wave to 50% over the next 5 days. The models are pretty all over the place with it; the GFS has been most aggressive, developing it on many of its runs over the past few days. The CMC has shown some development as well, as has the UKMET. The Euro has it as a trackable feature, but doesn’t develop it. I think 50% is fair from the NHC, or perhaps a bit generous; I certainly wouldn’t go any higher yet. Not anything to be concerned about right now. It’s in the middle of nowhere.

    Still, the fact that we have another potential Cape Verde cyclone this early is interesting. While it’s impossible to say for sure how the rest of the season will play out, most of the traditional indicators are pointing more towards an active season for the Atlantic. If nothing else, the SST configuration in the Atlantic is the best I’ve seen it in at least 5 years.

  18. My gut feeling is that one of these storms will come right up the coast, not really a Hurricane but a tropical storm in which I would need to move my pots in.

      1. We were “due” more than 15 years ago. Since 1851, a storm makes landfall in Ne England/Long Island once every 8 years. Our longest gap between hurricanes making landfall in New England/Long Island is 28 years. We’re at 26 years right now, so we’re approaching a record landfall “drought”.

        1. As I said….we are due. I did see your comments in your blog but then this old lady knows that from experience 🙂

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