48 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

1. FIRST!!!!! 😀 😀 😀

   1. Wow. I can’t believe I waited exactly 1 hour from post and was still able to do that. 😉

2. Third. July 3D Thank you!

3. Possibility of day #9 of 90 degrees at Logan.

4. Good morning and thank you TK.

   Another beauty on tap. I can’t count the number of absolutely gorgeous
   days we have had this Spring and Summer so far. And that’s even with some of
   the crap we had during the Spring. 😀

   It was HOT at Lakeville yesterday, but thankfully the humidity tanked as advertised.
   I checked nearby Taunton late in the afternoon and the dp was down to 58.
   Made all of the difference in the world. 😀

5. Interesting Red Sox Game yesterday. Mookie drove in 8 runs going 4 for 6 with 2 home runs and Pomeranz is slowly becoming a really decent pitcher, clearly the #2 starter.
   That may end up being a good trade in the end. He was damaged goods last year.

   Pomeranz, D BOS 8 4 era: 3.64

   IF Porkcello could come around to resemble last year’s form, I would say the Sox
   were a lock to win the Division. They may do it even without porkcello.

6. 6Z GFS is still advertising a tropical system. It has been doing so for days.\

   http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017070306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_40.png

   CMC has it as well

   http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017070300&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=100

   This is as close as the Euro gets

   http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2017070300&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=98

   national hurricane center gives it a 70% chance of developing within 5 days.

   http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

7. Thank you TK.

8. Thank you, TK

   Four Maine tornadoes confirmed

   http://www.weather.gov/media/gyx/tornado_forweb.pdf?platform=hootsuite

   1. Did some fishing in Moose pond as a youngster. Landlocked salmon. My mom made the best salmon dinner and I’ll be darned if I can find a recipe anywhere that even comes close

   2. Four tornadoes in Maine in one day is amazing. Not to mention additional widespread severe wind and flooding. A spectacular performance by NWS Gray likely saved lives and property.

   3. Great information. Thank you.

9. Thanks, TK.

10. Thanks TK.
    Keep that tropical wave over the fish. I don’t want anywhere near the east coast since I will be in Virginia next week and catching a Cubs Orioles game on the way back.

11. Happy Birthday, Ace!!!!!

12. Thanks, TK.

    JP Dave, I’m so glad I’ve been proven wrong about the Red Sox. They’ve morphed into a very good team, almost unnoticed.

    Weather question: It seems that July 4th weather is more predictable than New Year’s. Sure, there have been a few cloudy July 4th’s in the 70s, but very few in my lifetime. Generally, it’s been well above 80 with abundant sunshine. New Year’s Day, on the other hand, is not predictably wintry. In fact, I can remember just as many cold, blustery days in the 20s on January 1st, as I can balmy harbingers of spring in the 50s or even 60s. Can we generally say that summer is more predictable than winter in Boston? And if so, why would that be?

    1. I would certainly say the 7/4 is more predictable than 1/1. To say a summer is more predictable than a winter? Well I wouldn’t go that far. 😀

    2. It’s neither more nor less predictable overall. You’re just dealing with 2 distinctively different seasons, different types of patterns that can be in place, and different focus for expectations. You won’t find many people looking at a weather forecast for a trip to the beach or a cookout on New Year’s Day. Fireworks, maybe both. 😉

       This year’s July 4 weather is really no more or less predictable in the grand scheme, going into it. But knowing we’re going to have a sprawling high pressure area over the region makes it seem pretty simple. Keep in mind, just several days ago “the models” had low pressure areas running out just south of New England with wet weather on July 4, 5, and 6 (variable between runs of course). As is typical, I took the “wait and see because it probably won’t verify” stance, which I learned in the “old school” with SAK. Once again, it is proven that this method works 1000x better than “rip & read”. Still, very few people listen. Oh well. 😀

       1. Thank you and you are so correct.

          I like your term rip and read. Said way to go about business.
          We are blessed that you do NOT operate that way.

          1. said => sad

    3. “Sure, there have been a few cloudy July 4th’s in the 70s, but very few in my lifetime. Generally, it’s been well above 80 with abundant sunshine.”

       Just using my data for Lowell:

       2015 – High of 74, 0.04″ rain, most of the afternoon was cloudy with rain
       2014 – High of 76, 1.07″ rain thanks to Hurricane Arthur passing just offshore.
       2012 – High of 88, 0.32″rain, rain most of the morning, skies didn’t clear out until mid/late afternoon
       2009 – High of 77, 0.01″ rain, skies didn’t start to clear until mid-afternoon
       2008 – High of 70, 0.37″ rain, heavy rain in the morning, skies didn’t clear until mid-afterrnoon
       2007 – High of 77, 0.18″ rain, clouds moved in early afternoon, rain late afternoon and most of the evening

       That’s 5 of the last 10 with highs in the 70s, and another that didn’t have much sunshine until late in the day.

       1. Even here in good old New England we’ve had some miserable July 4 weather. Two stand out: 1992 and 1978. 7-4-1992 was more like a mid April day in a dank pattern. Wet & very cool. Boston postponed their concert and fireworks until July 5, not because of a severe threat, but just to capitalize on good weather that was pretty much a lock for that day. July 4 1978 was “cold” with an off season “nor’easter”. A portion of the day was in the 50s in much of the region.

          1. Was it 2000 or maybe 2001 that it was in the low 100s. Daughter did a horse show in Farmington CT. First time in her years of showing they waived jackets. Daughter also fell out of favor with trainer when daughter announced after one flat class and one fence course that she would not take her horse out again.

             1. Off the top of my head I can’t remember which year but I remember when extremely hot one in which many areas were mid to upper 90s with a few 100+ spots.

                1. July 4, 2002 had a high of 99 in Lowell.

                   1. I believe it would have been 2000 or 2001 and I think 2000. By 2002, she had left that trainer I mentioned behind….for clearly good reasons 🙂 I’ll have to ask her.

                      I have a vague recollection of a either a very weak tornado or some rotation seen in western MA. I may be incorrect

                      1. And thank you for checking, SAK!!

                      2. She thinks it may have been 1999

                      3. July 4, 1999 was 91 in Lowell, but July 5 and 6 were both 98.

                      4. That would be it. I knew there was a stretch of heat around it.

13. Well summer, you get rid of snow and messy mixing. you can have 50s to 100s with Heavy rain to sunshine. You never know when a back door cold front will slip in from the northeast.

14. Thanks, TK…

    Hope everyone is well and enjoying this weather and the holiday weekend. Here’s hoping that most of you are off today!

    1. Wishing you the very same.

15. Temperatures can vary much more in winter than in summer. While we regularly get a few 60-65 degree days in winter, roughly +30 from average, you’ll never see a 110-115 degree day around here in summer, which would be the equivalent. Each season presents its own challenge, and I wouldn’t say any individual days are more or less predictable. But I think it is fair to say that summer is more predictable than winter.

16. Thanks TK !

17. Irregardless of what becomes of 94L, it’s 2 days in a row that the summer semi-permanent Bermuda High appears to be set up a couple hundred miles east-northeast of its climatological position. I would think this is a good thing if it continued all summer as one factor in keeping tropical activity away.

18. In the watching category GFS has inside runner low of 1001 mb cutting through NY State on Friday with pressure dropping to 997 as it tracks through Northern New England. Some pretty good severe parameters for parts of New England for thunderstorm development. Mid level lapse rates however are poor.

19. I believe the high temp on July 4, 1978 was 65F. I wouldn’t be surprised if that is a record low temp high for that date. I remember that particular 4th well.

    1. Next day we were right back to 80+ and muggy.

       1. Lowell had a high of 60, a low of 59, and 0.26″ of rain on 7/4/1978, and was 77 the next day. That is Lowell’s record low max for July 4th.

          1. That was a great weather year 🙂

             Blizzard of 78, chilly July 4th …..

             1. haha

             2. That following winter (1978-79) was a total turnaround though at only 27.5″ snowfall at Logan.

          2. What a diurnal! 😉

             I wasn’t taking my records at that time, but I remember my brother saying something like 62 high 57 low or something, but that it was around 59-58 for a good part of the day. I remember being outside at night, not raining anymore, and it being drizzly and kind of foggy and overcast and hearing distant fireworks from Boston, barely, as it was pretty calm and still outside.

             1. In 1978 I graduated high school, got my first-ever job and started college. 🙂

                1. Well you have a few years on me. I was Class of 1985. 😉

20. Thanks, TK, for answering my question on predictability. I realize that the way I phrased the question made it seem like I was overgeneralizing.

    Thanks, SAK, for setting me straight on July 4ths that have been cloudy and rainy. My memory’s good, but it can’t measure up to actual statistics.

21. Heading into Boston shortly after 7AM, so the new post is up now. Happy Birthday USA!

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