Thursday Forecast

50 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 6-10)
High pressure slips offshore today, still a nice day but you’ll notice an increase in high cloudiness at times and some increase in humidity. As a warm front moves into the region tonight and a ripple of low pressure moves along it and through the region early Friday, humidity and rain chances go up. It remains to be seen where the heaviest rain will track, but timing appears to be morning to early afternoon Friday. Then the humidity is in for the remainder of Friday through early Saturday, so a pop up shower or storm is possible during this time, but a cold front is due to pass through the region early Saturday followed by a secondary trough during the midday of Saturday. Though a shower or thunderstorm is possible a couple times during Saturday, the activity is likely to be more isolated due to the lack of moisture available for more widespread shower activity. High pressure will move in for a great ending to the weekend. The next system may be on the doorstep by the start of next week.
TODAY: Sun filtered at times by high clouds. More humid. Highs 78-86, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Risk of showers after midnight. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, some heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms morning and midday. Lowering humidity. Lows 63-70. Highs 75-83.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 80-88, cooler South Coast.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows 60-68. Highs 75-84.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)
A fairly “typical” summer week with moderate to at times higher humidity and several opportunities for showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures variable but averaging near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)
Trend to drier and hotter weather expected.

50 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

      1. Thank you Vicki . Would be better if I was off . Two weeks from this Saturday than I’m off but who’s counting .

  7. Thanks TK.
    Pretty good parameters for thunderstorms on the 6z runs of the American models for Saturday. Will see if there on the 12z runs.

    1. Indeed they are. Soundings indicate tornado threat on both the GFS and the NAM. However, those were the 6Z runs and those threat levels are way
      over cooked on the COD site and even more so on the pivotal site.

      Let’s see what they look like on the 12Z runs. 12z NAM almost out to that
      hour. 😀

      1. Now I know why I don’t pay attention to 6Z runs.
        12Z NAM has backed off on the severe parameters
        for Saturday. 😀

    1. The CEO/owner of “Big Foot” trucking (the truck that is considered suspicious) said there were only household goods on the truck being delivered. The truck was stopped at gate and during routine inspection, something was seen to raise concern. It is on the Lincoln side and I believe all have been evacuated.

      1. Seems ok and Mass State Police are updating – although it isn’t live. It seems there were trace amounts/residue of explosives in the truck.

        Well done inspectors….excellent security!

    1. A drop or 2 to 2 inches. 😀 😀 😀

      Sharp cut off South to North. 12Z 3KM NAM gives Boston 0.07 inches, while points towards the South Coast get 1.7 inches.

      That’s one model, but gives you an idea.

        1. I’ll take 0.50″ but anything less than that no point in throwing anything down on the lawn

              1. Indeed. The NWS has been barking about that for 2 days.
                They don’t know what to forecast.

                Last night Eric seemed to think that the axis of heavy rain was trending South. 12Z GFS contradicts that, so we shall see.

                HRRR hints at it coming up as does the RAP.

  10. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan for Saturday
    A slower cold front passage on Saturday means a higher chance for storms. A strong storm possible too!

  11. Don’t sleep on TD 4 just yet. We’ve seen these things past few years be dead in the water and once they get past shear and dry air they blow up when no one thought they would survive.

      1. Models schmodels. Tropical development is something models have a very difficult time with. On one hand we’re told to not always look at the models, and on the other if the models don’t like this system at the moment, they’re taken as gospel.

  12. Hopefully that warm front stays south of SNE for tomorrow. NWS out of Taunton was mentioning possibility of isolated tornado water spout for south coast being in the vicinity of that warm front.

    1. “Tornado Ted” at it again? That wording is in the discussion whenever it is
      even remotely possible. Is it legitimate? I dunno? It’s almost like the little
      boy who cried wolf. But perhaps it is totally justified? I highly doubt it, but
      who knows????

      To me, there is more of a tornado risk on Saturday than there is tomorrow.

      We shall see.

    2. If that is a link from Facebook, then that is the reason I cannot see it
      on my office computer. FB is blocked.

  16. Good afternoon all, happy birthday SSK! Some quick hits on the weather from me:

    *Tomorrow: LOW confidence forecast for a short range events. Just not enough model agreement on where, if anywhere, a heavy rain axis of 2″ or so will set up. I agree with the decision to issue the FFW and with its placement. We’ll just have to see how things evolve into tonight. Some of the more flood-prone urban areas in our region could be under the gun, so that’s another reason a watch was probably a good idea.
    *Saturday: Strong storms possible in the afternoon. Fairly low confidence here too, however. May be more of a northern New England event, but worth watching.
    *Also keeping an eye on Tuesday for thunderstorm potential.
    *Temperatures averaging near or a bit below normal the next 10 days, but I agree with TK on a trend to hotter days 11-15.
    *TD 4: No factor, nor will it become one. Has probably already lost its closed circulation and ceased to be a true tropical cyclone, but advisories have continued for now for continuity purposes.

    In other words… typical summer weather 🙂

  17. The one model that’s really sticking out of the pack for tomorrow is the GFS. It’s basically been ignored in all the forecasts. The thinking is that any heavy rain axis will set up either in the FFW area, as some models indicate, or that it may be pulled even further south towards the greater instability, as sometimes happens in these events. The GFS, including the new 18z run, is much further northwest with its heavier rain. It would be a brilliant call if it pans out that way. More likely, however, the model will fall flat on its face.

  18. GFS more bullish past couple runs with severe parameters than past few runs of the NAM for Saturday.

  19. Eric Fisher on Twitter just promised to “eat his suit” if Boston gets more than an inch of rain tomorrow!

  20. 65.6 with a 61 DP. AC went on and windows closed for the first time in nearly a week. Sure cannot complain about anything we have seen this summer.

    Question….do folks here run an ad blocker on wunderground? I had a polite request to turn mine off since ads pay for some of their costs. I turned it off but it sure slowed the page down. I don’t go to sites that require me to turn ad blocker off but Wunder isn’t requiring me to and I do like to support them.

    1. I haven’t had to do anything with wunderground.

      I generally get very irritated at ads. Extremely so.
      I especially get pissed off at the onslaught of ads from Google.

      It’s disgusting.

  21. Looking at radar trends, it sure appears to me that Boston gets into some
    of the significant rain. We shall see. Each successive run of the HRRR ups the ante
    for Boston. Current run gives 0.34 inch up from a run or 2 ago of 0.17 inch.

    6Z gfs wants to give Boston 2+ inch. 😀

    We shall see what the 12Z NAM shows. Should have something in about an hour or so.

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