Sunday Forecast

63 Comments

8:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 9-13)
As we enter the mid part of July a pattern fairly typical for this time of year will be in place. High pressure will bring a refreshingly dry but fairly warm day today, and this will be followed by an approaching warm front Monday which will bring some cloudiness at times. Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be warm and humid days with a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms as a front hangs to the north of the region. This front should settle south by Thursday resulting in cooler weather, but the question at this point is whether or not we will turn drier, or the front hangs up nearby and leaves the region vulnerable to unsettled weather later next week. For the moment, I’m leading toward the latter scenario, but with low confidence.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-86. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind light SW.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-84, coolest coast. Wind S-SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind light SE-S.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Humid. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 77-82 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Humid. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Humid. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)
A cool and possibly wet start to this period followed by drier with a warming trend. The period may end warm/humid with increased chances for thunderstorms.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)
Expecting a somewhat hotter period of weather with an occasional risk for showers/thunderstorms. Not a high confidence forecast at this time.

63 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Here is a re-post

    JpDave says:
    July 9, 2017 at 8:24 AM
    Pretty interesting account of Tornado in Cambridge, 1680.

    Meteorologist Jacob Wycoff

    On this date in 1680…
    The first confirmed fatality from a tornado occurred in Cambridge, Mass.
    Reverend Increase Mather wrote of a thick, black cloud that produced a whirlwind that tore down trees and picked up large rocks. Cambridge residents could hear the tremendous “singing” of the storm from a mile away. Injuries suffered from the storm killed a servant, John Robbins.
    His death is the first recorded death from a tornado.

    https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/19875586_1778122255538283_3374184311522917933_n.png?oh=42574f0f1fa910d06b7d2f3f1228e20d&oe=5A10D4C0

  3. Thanks TK!

    Barry agrees with you with a high of only 67 for Friday…a repeat of 7/4/1978 perhaps?

  5. Thanks, TK, and Good Morning, everyone!

    TK…do you still have concerns about a thunderstorm outbreak for the Northeast at the end of this week? You mentioned this late last week.

    1. At the moment I’m leaning toward a cooler and more “stable” scenario for that time period, but with a front nearby, if it ends up a little further north, then we’re not out of the woods. We will have to also watch Tuesday and Wednesday for some thunderstorm threats.

    1. I am not quickly finding a location, but he was affiliated with Harvard and born in Dorchester so possibly what we now consider Cambridge. He has a colorful history, including involvement in the witch trials. Cotton Mather, a name I am more familiar with, was his son

      Thanks again, Dave

  9. For Thursday you could tell what parts of New England are in the stable air and which parts are in the unstable air by looking at the 12z GFS. Of course that may change as the week goes on.

  10. On this account while something is reset…

    The GFS is outdoing itself for inconsistency from run to run. Terrible.

    So disappointed in this model this summer so far.

    1. you mean that tropical feature that was still there on the 12Z run that showed on the 6z run is pure fantasy? Say it ain’t so.

      1. Not so much that the system itself won’t exist in some shape or form, but I’m sure somewhere out there in fake weather page land on social media some 18 year old college drop out has already warned his readers that claim he’s never wrong and always better than the TV guys to get ready for the big hit.

          1. In the near term definitely something for the Leeward and Winward islands to watch for the Friday timeframe.

  11. The 18z GFS has it going through the island while strengthening and down to 972mb just after it passes.

      1. Landfall on central Long Island, pretty intense. 🙂 🙂

        And if I had camped one more night, I would have missed this entertainment. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. that would put most of eastern New England on the wind side of things and the heavy rain to the west.

  12. I know its far out and probably will not happen, but my gut is saying that we are well over due to a Hurricane here In New England and mother nature would make it happen the year that I am on Nantucket 😛 It is bound to happen sooner or later especially with the warming oceans. Gulf of Maine is experiencing an unprecedented rise in ocean temperature and acidification in the past 10 years.

    1. So many things wrong here that I feel the need to get the correct info out there:

      A. There has been no correlation between water temperatures and hurricanes in recent years.
      B. Ocean acidification has ZERO relationship to tropical cyclones.
      C. SST’s in the Gulf of Maine have been below normal for much of the summer so far.
      D. Of course, SST’s in the Gulf of Maine are irrelevant when it comes to tropical cyclones up here as it wouldn’t get into the Gulf of Maine until after landfall or a close pass.
      E. It has been stated numerous times (mainly by me), that statistically, we are well beyond overdue, and approaching record territory in terms of a landfall up here.

      1. You did indeed say we are overdue. I said the same a bit back and for some reason you needed to remind me you had said this. Matt states the same and you remind him. Although I believe we have been saying the same for several years.

        I just want to be clear. If you state something does that mean that we should not say the same.

        Just curious.

        1. Actually, I was correcting all of the other points. Plus, he said that “his gut” was telling him that we are well overdue, when actual stats have been used time and time again. Actual stats mean a lot more than someone’s gut.

          1. Oh for heavens sakes. I will pretend you didn’t say that. Or maybe you would like to edit our posts.

            Enough is truly enough.

            1. You’re right, I’ll stop posting correct info from now on. After all, fake news is all the rage these days.

              BTW, which of the other things I corrected of his was wrong?

              1. Playing the victim doesn’t appeal to me

                You assumed that Matt was correlating warming in gulf of Maine to increased activity. First, did you think to ask if that is what me meant. Perhaps that wss his meaning. Perhaps not, Second, There are a number of people,who have repeatedly mentioned on here that warming water may be more conducive to hurricanes maintaining strength. It is a view. People on here should feel comfortable making a Comment without having it torn apart. And they should not have to second guess the words they choose. Third, it is all right for someone to say something you or anyone else has said. It does not diminish anything you said. It is just sharing a view.

                1. Actually, he was correlating “warming oceans” with activity, and there is no proof of that, despite numerous studies. He then mentioned that the Gulf of Maine was warming, and again, the data proves that to be false. When I see multiple statements that are factually incorrect, I point them out. If nobody points out when things are wrong, how will anyone know what is right? So I’ll ask again, which of the other things I corrected of his was wrong?

      2. 1. It should read ( I know its far out and probably will not happen, but my gut is saying because I am on Nantucket and that we are well over due for a Hurricane here In New England, mother nature would make it happen the year that I am on Nantucket It is bound to happen sooner or later especially with the warming oceans.
        Gulf of Maine is experiencing an unprecedented rise in ocean temperature and acidification in the past 10 years.

        SAK see the last part. IN THE PAST 10 YEARS, I am talking about a trend, I am sorry to hear that a “professional” can not look at the over all trend and see that it is an anomaly. It is also due to the increasing ice melt going on in Greenland. the Labrador Current is sending much colder water down from greenland. This is an anomoly
        Rising sea temperatures will lead to increase storm formation (that includes Hurricanes and other tropically based storms) Rising sea temperatures have already and will continue to increase acidification. It is well documented.
        I am an Environmental science Major and I am focused in Marine science, with honors and doing my on research project as an undergrad I know what I am talking about i have the grades and lab experience to prove it and before you say you been in the profession for a long time, no you have not you have been in atmospheric sciences and have a focus. Environmental science includes Bio, marine bio, Oceanography, chem,Physics, ecology, atmospheric sciences, genetics, I do not think I have to go on with this list.
        I HAVE NEVER SENT FAKE NEWS!! Sorry if my wording was not what you want your Royal Highness

        1. Once again, what does the Gulf of Maine have to do with the tropics? What does ocean acidification have to do with hurricanes? Also, you can claim all you want that rising sea temperatures “will” lead to more storms, but thus far, the actual data does no agree. These points, as well as the other ones I made, were all atmospheric science – you know, the area I know. That’s great that you’re studying environmental science, but you know what? It’s not relevant to the comments I made, unless you think that studying genetics has something to do with hurricanes forming.

          Yes, I have been doing this professionally for over 25 years. I also know what I am talking about and have the EXPERIENCE to prove it. In the real world, grades don’t mean a thing. Nobody cares what your GPA is when you’re trying to get a job. They care whether you can do the job or not. I’ve known plenty of people that got fantastic grades in school and they absolutely could not cut it in the professional world. Likewise, I’ve known plenty of people that struggled in school, but have had tremendous success in the real world.

          Also, and you should have realized this a long time ago, but in science, your wording is everything. If people can’t understand what you’re saying, then your message will not get across and you have failed.

          1. My last comment. SAK in addition to the skill of verbalizing, comprehension is important

            I, who have little weather knowledge, underwood Matt’s comment I tried to explain to you that perhaps you had not.

            That said…I bid …as a hero of mine would say…you all a fond adieu….at least for the time being. When we have to watch every word we say on here, it is no longer the place it was. Life is far too complicated to bring that to a place that was always informative but fun.

          2. I never said the gulf of Maine has to do anything with the tropics. I have said that due to the warming oceans there will be an increase in storms, which includes hurricanes. Warming ocean temperatures here in the gulf of maine could lead to more chances of Hurricanes up this way. The over all global ocean temperature might be decreasing but that is temporary and due to very large anomoloies due to ice melt. There are major areas especially along the Tropical oceans and mid levels (sub tropical and temperate) in which the ocean temperatures are warmer than average. Think of it as the atmosphere where the over all global temperature is increasing but there are areas in which are below normal. Environmental science and Marine science includes Atmospheric science. Genetics is once piece of it. Seriously can you not read? Vicki understood what I was saying, I guess you need it the way you want it or you can not read it. My main focus is marine ecology which includes all aspects of the environments including the weather/climate.
            Grades do mean something, The more you have on your resume the better off you are. For grad school and the real world. Some people might not have the best of grades and success good for them. A lot of them do not.
            Also with your last comment I am working on it, Sometimes my sentences do not go in the correct order, I understand that. It is something that I have struggled with my entire life, I have no shame in saying that I have a disability that effects my speech and sometimes my writing. Now everyone knows now that sometimes I might not put some sentences in the correct spots. Sometimes I might forget a comma/use the wrong phrase. It is something I am working on.

            1. And that, Matt, is what I will always have your six. You are a fine young man who has learned who you are and come out way on top rather than let it define you. Well said, sir.

  14. I mostly wrote it off awhile back, as did most, but I think of more interest in the tropics tonight than the wave off Africa are the remnants of TD 4. They’ve been fighting very hard against dry air and high shear over the past couple of days, and the system looks a little better tonight. Conditions are pretty favorable near the Bahamas. It may at least give it a go at regenerating in that area later this week. Wouldn’t shock me to see the NHC reintroduce it on their TWO soon.

    As to the African wave, ask again when/if it makes it about another 1,000 miles west. Until then, enjoy the wildly inaccurate long range GFS for as long as it decides to keep showing development.

  15. If that storm on the GFS really happened the way it’s progged, jiminy Christmas, that would be destructive. Nobody would want that.
    There’s not a chance that verifies the way it looks at this point, but man that would be one strong storm.

    1. the amount of erosion that has happened since the last time I was here last summer for 2 weeks and now is astonishing to say the least. Can only imagine what a hurricane would do . Northeast Winds just chew away from the bluff. My Dad who was down here 40 years ago said there was about 100 yards between the bunk house and the beach. Its now 30 feet.

  16. Red Sox lost again, but Yankees did as well. I suspect the hitting (or lack thereof) will be their eventual downfall moreso than pitching.

  17. What amazing with the Yankees losing 18 of 25 going into the All Star break yet only 3.5 games out of first two in the loss column and are in virtual tie with Tampa Bay for the first wild card. I will take that after the stretch of bad baseball.

    1. Watch out for the Rays. I know it’s only the All-Star Break, but they are exciting and playing awesome baseball. As Lou Grant would say, they’ve got spunk.

      2. Love the reference. Even without attribute, I would have known. Such a great show. And …not surprisingly….I love spunk.

  18. I think it’s a great thing that the 18z GFS depicts a major hurricane for the East Coast because now we know what won’t happen. 😉

  19. Euro doesn’t have the Caine. Niether does the para-GFS. Any wager on how long it is before the GFS loses it?

  20. TK…I have been meaning to ask this for a while:

    With regards to forecast models, “is score kept on them”, meaning which one performs better? For example, is the GFS 86% accurate?
    Are there models that perform better in the summer than the winter? Handle snowstorms better than hurricanes?

    How often are the computer programs updated? When was the GFS originated? Euro?
    Are these models in their infancy?

    1. They are scored. And the performances vary depending on the season and the current status of each. Example, some “upgrades” don’t quite work as expected. I do not know the current % rate of accuracy of any model based on the latest scores. And there are models that perform generally better overall, and under certain conditions. Part of being a meteorologist is learning and knowing how to use such data.

      How often they are updated depends on who controls the model and the $.

      The model that morphed into what is now the GFS came online about 17 years ago.

  21. I agree with your assessment on the Rays Captain Fantastic. There schedule out of the break has them playing 12 games against teams with records below 500. They will be competitive but come trade deadline I don’t see them being able to pull off a big trade like the Red Sox or Yankees can.

    1. Sox need a Big Papi-type hitter. There is no real HR threat in their lineup, at least not a consistent one.

  22. Starting on Tuesday July 11, the comments for this blog will be unavailable for a period of time yet to be determined. During that time, statements that are usually made by Woods Hill Weather in the comments will be made in individual blog posts during the course of the day. They will also appear on the Woods Hill Weather Facebook page.

    Email woodshillweather@gmail.com if you have any questions but be patient as this email account is not yet linked to my mobile device and I cannot reply until I am at my laptop, which is sometime for only a limited time each day.

    Thanks!

  23. SAK…

    What do the percentages at the top of that chart mean? Is the % that that model was correct during that time period?
    Was there a time that the GFS (or any other model) outperformed the ECMWF?

  24. JP, John, captain, bliz,vicki, Hadi, JJ, phillip, north, tom, wXwatcher , keith and others, good luck and have fun, I have some of you on facebook so we can still communicated via facebook. Thanks for making this blog great. Unless there is a cool weather event that looks intriguing I will not be commenting on here. I miss the days in which anyone could post a weather model without someone ripping apart that it will probably not happen the way it shows more than 5 days out. I think everyone on this blog is smart enough to know that something that massive out more than 7 days or 5 days will likely change. This storm that only the gfs is showing is 10+ days out, it use to be ok for people to post things knowing that it probably will not happen. We left BZ for a reason. Again good luck, hopefully we can communicate in some form or another.

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