Monday Forecast

50 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 10-14)
An active weather week is getting underway. A front gets into the region during the next 24 hours, starting with a disturbance from the west northwest tonight. The front then approaches Tuesday with humidity and thunderstorm chances. Then the position of the front will determine storm chances and temperatures, and conditions may vary widely over short distances during the mid week period. Still leaning toward a southward push to the front and the coolest weather, as well as potentially wet, for the end of the week.
TODAY: More sun than clouds much of the day, more clouds than sun late in the day. Highs 77-82 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers overnight. Lows 62-68. Wind light SE to S.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 76-81 South Coast, 82-87 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 62-68. Wind light SW to variable.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 75-83. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Humid. Lows from the lower to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)
Improving weather expected for the weekend of July 15-16. Additional shower/thunderstorm chances follow this July 17-19. Temperatures return to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)
Episodes of scattered showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures near to above normal.

50 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. Your comment reminds me of a Jackie Gleason episode where
      Norton is trying to teach Ralph how to golf. The hand book said to
      “address the ball”, so Norton to show Ralph how it is done, places the ball down and takes his stance, then bends over with almost a salute and says: “Hello Ball”.
      HILARIOUS

      Have a look:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fs8aRZntp6c

  6. Now the GFS takes the tropical system into the gulf to Mexico. But, it still has a system.
    Wonder how long before it gives it up, if at all?

  8. Tauton NWS has thrown me a curve.

    This is a very small part of their discussion:

    Should enough morning/afternoon breaks occur, am noting
    soundings support CAPE values near 1500j/kg or possibly. Higher
    K/PWAT and warm cloud layers suggest good setup for HPE storms

    What on Earth is an HPE storm??? OK, after MUCH searching, I found it mentioned in a paper.

    HPE stands for… READY for this? HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT

    Who thinks up these things?

  9. I guess this is the MCS the NWS service talks about.

    https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php

    This is “supposed” to come through in the wee hours tonight in a very weakened form.
    What remains of this, ie debris clouds tomorrow, will affect destabilization
    for possible storms tomorrow. Time will tell.

    Tomorrow could end up with nothing or garden variety OR it could end up
    quite a bit more. We shall see.

  11. I seem to recall the GFS making up phantom TC in summers past. Same old thing here.
    There was one progged to do the same thing about a month ago.

  12. 12Z NAMs and Latest HRRR indicate that the MSC currently in the Mid West
    will survive the trip in some manner to cause convective showers (thunder?)
    tomorrow AM. How fast that clears out and how much cloudiness remains will
    factor in any convection tomorrow PM.

  13. The GFS is being upgraded next week. The parallel version becomes operational.

    Based on how it has performed during this time, the mid latitude performance will be similar to the current GFS, which will keep it behind most models, and the tropical cyclone performance will worsen.

    They are going ahead with the upgrade implementation anyway. That’s like just kicking the ball into your own net….twice.

    1. 955 mb is a pretty potent hurricane, not that this will verify.

      I just find it interesting that it is still holding onto this feature.

        1. 960 mb at our latitude. Pretty impressive. We shall see if
          anything remotely resembling this depiction happens here
          or anywhere else along the US coast. 😀

            1. Most likely not for sure. But we will keep watching and get chuckles with each depiction. If we get 5 days out and it still has it coming, then take precautions. But for now, It’s fun.

  16. Would it be awful to say that there’s some small part of me that wants a hit in New England ?

    Of course, I obviously don’t want to see anyone hurt or anyone’s property and stuff damaged, but as a weather enthusiast, I kind of like the extreme stuff too. The 100F day, the 0F day, the excessive snowfall, etc. ….. The one weather thrill I never need to see is a tornado.

    But this 84F, 88F, it’s humid, it’s drier, maybe a thunderstorm, maybe not a thunderstorm ….. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    1. To get a direct hit by a hurricane, even a Cat 1 without any property damage whatsoever is highly unrealistic. Occasionally there is the tornado that develops and travels a path through nothing but open space with no threat to life or property…but even those are somewhat rare with so much property development over the years. Even just a very windy day, there is always damage somewhere, even if it is relatively minor.

    2. Tom,
      I have always felt the same way.
      It’s not wrong or bad and you answered it.
      You/we are weather enthusists.

      1. I agree with you both. Probably a blizzard is the only widespread extreme weather event that most people and property can get through with few serious issues and enjoy “w/o the guilt” so to speak. 🙂

  17. GFS in on crack.
    In the last 24 hours, its had that low centered over Brownville, TX, Dallas, TX, mid gulf, off the coast of NC, off the coast of FL. All around the same time frame.
    Never mind no other model has it.

  18. What I find more interesting than the GFS constantly trying to bring the storm up the coast, is the various tracks that it takes. On the 00z run, tha track would have made Katrina seem like a warmup act. Not only did it have the storem impact Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Orlando, and Tampa, it literally had a “worst-case scenario” for New Orleans, with a Cat 3 moving WNW, passing just south of the city. That storm would cause maximum damage and flooding in New Orleans.

    Today’s 12z run also is a high-damage scenario. After slowly crossing the Bahamas, it stalls just off the the Florida coast for 3 days, inflicting maximum damage to areas from West Palm Beach to Daytona Beach, before finally moving north, strengthening, and slamming into North Carolina, and then eventually up here. The impacts here in New England on that track would be minimal compared to the rest of what the storm does.

  20. What a surprise! The 18Z GFS has completely LOST the Big Hurricane advertised
    on the 12Z run. What a difference 12 hours can make. 😀 😀

    Will it back on the 0Z run?

    1. I’m shocked, shocked I say!
      Yea, be interesting if the 12z brings it back. At this point, the entertainment value is off the charts.

  21. GFS and its ensembles have gradually been trending weaker with that wave in the period before it reaches the Caribbean. That’s very important; it’s well known that it is almost impossible, especially this time of year, for a tropical wave or weak tropical cyclone to survive the trade winds of the eastern Caribbean. However, a strong tropical storm or hurricane does not have that problem. “The John Hope rule.” Brilliant. The GFS had previously been showing enough development before the system entered the Caribbean that it could continue strengthening once it did enter. But it was trending weaker, and while the 18z didn’t “lose” the system, it was too weak upon entry to the Caribbean to stand a chance. Expect that to be the outcome.

    The above is a very useful rule to remember with these “low rider” cyclones in the deep tropics. If it’s not a well developed cyclone on entry to the Caribbean, it either won’t become one, or it will wait until it’s well into the western Caribbean, by which time it will rarely track in a way as to be a factor to us. That’s why most of our hurricanes either develop north of the Caribbean near the Bahamas, or develop early on in the east Atlantic, which usually sends them just north of the Caribbean before they slingshot up the coast along the periphery of the Bermuda high.

    1. Good info.
      Makes you wonder why or how the GFS algorithm works in comparison to the euro re those parameters.

      1. Well as I stated earlier, the GFS is about to be “downgraded” on it’s handling of tropical cyclones when the latest upgrade takes effect next week.

  24. Regarding yesterday’s dust up on the blog….

    I recently read an article about hostility in today’s society and a line that stuck out for me is this…. “We feel little obligation for thoughtful consideration of the beliefs and views of others”.

  25. I know there are some Yankees fans here, watching the home run derby right now and Aaron Judge is doing very well. Hit 2 home runs over 500 feet. He looks to have a bright future!

  26. SAK and TK both have possibility of showers overnight (TK has ‘slight chance’). Trying to decide whether to leave windows open tonight to cool off the house as the a/c is not functioning. Oh well, first-world problems, I guess. Right now the air coming in is so refreshing.

    1. I left the windows open and was greeted by a very heavy downpour around 1am-ish. The air coming in now doesn’t feel refreshing anymore and is very humid and sticky.

      1. Yes, what a change, the air is so heavy this morning. Was just thinking how nice it was the last few days. Party’s over.

  27. The disabling of comments (for a hopefully short period of time) will be delayed by up to a few days because of possible isolated severe storms Tuesday and the potential for additional strong to severe storms Thursday.

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