Tuesday Forecast

91 Comments

3:55AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 11-15)
An unsettled stretch of weather for much of this period with a frontal boundary oscillating in the region. Humidity will often be high. The position of the front and timing of disturbances will dictate the frequency of showers and thunderstorms. Best guess is detailed below. Still expecting the front to push further south by Friday wit a much cooler day, but it remains to be seen if it will be wet (front not far south) or dry (front further south). It may also remain unsettled for a time into Saturday before improvement arrives.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy through mid morning then variably cloudy. Most numerous showers including downpours and embedded thunderstorms early morning, then more isolated to scattered midday and afternoon. Humid. Highs 76-81 South Coast, 82-87 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Activity may favor areas to the south of the Mass Pike. Humid. Lows 62-68. Wind light SW to variable.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 75-83. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring southern areas. Humid. Lows from the lower to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with possible showers early, then partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows from the lower to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)
A disturbance or front about every other day brings a few rounds of showers/thunderstorms as temperatures average close to normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)
Episodes of scattered showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures near to above normal.

91 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. Good morning, y’all!
    0.68″ in the bucket in early morning torrential Taunton rains.

      1. Still another slug moving in…

        https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.6847826086956522&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=387.58730158730157&centery=281.61904761904765&transx=-12.412698412698433&transy=41.61904761904765&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=24996275&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

        Then there should be a break. How much sunshine devlops
        will play a role in any future convection, if any, this afternoon.
        Not impressed with model trends for convection this PM.

        Here is the animated latest HRRR simulated Radar reflection
        for today. Notice the dearth of echoes after this morning’s rains move out?

        http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/11Z-20170711_HRRRNE_prec_radar-0-18-10-100.gif

  5. Can feel the humidity out there . Not good when your uniform is a polo shirt , jeans & boots in the city .

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  9. Looks like 0.23 will do it in the precipitation department for now at home in JP.

    We shall see what, if anything, shakes out this afternoon.

  10. Sunbreaks will now begin and initiate very warm pockets in the muggy air as well as isolated to scattered convection.

  12. There’s definitely something draped from just south of Boston, southwestward …. where a few showers and storms keep re developing.

    3. From Taunton NWS:

      widely scattered low top convection trying to fire
      on leftover boundary south of Boston.

      You nailed it Tom.

    1. Wow. And I can”t even remember it. Probably split North and South of the city. You would think I would remember.

  14. I’m not too excited about anything too big firing up today but we do have to watch that boundary to the south. I’ve been eyeing that as a possible firing zone for today and tonight since yesterday. That boundary may even persist into tomorrow morning and try to get something going as it lifts to the north and weakens.

    I’m still quite concerned about Thursday as it stands right now…

  15. Note that cumulus coverage has dropped during the last 2 hours. Weak and only briefly small heavy showers in the vicinity of a couple boundaries but nothing sustaining itself. We have too much high cloud cover that is limiting the mixing of air for convection.

    This is not really a big surprise as this has always been one of the limiting factors in play today.

  16. Big time summer time heat and humidity down here in Virginia today. Next couple days heat index values between 100 – 105. I am going to be the by the pool after going out early for golf like I did today.
    TK from your post earlier it sounds like I may be missing an active day on Thursday. I know it may be early but what you are you thinking for possible threats on Thursday?

    1. Working on timing but if that front is any kind of held up to the north then the potential may be quite impressive for SNE. The set-up reminds me of a few semi-historic severe weather outbreaks in the past.

  17. A nice active weather pattern that we’re in. Gotta look at tomorrow before Thursday. Severe threat tomorrow is limited but non-zero. However, weak winds aloft will mean slow moving thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall will be a threat. Would not be surprising at all to see some flood/flash flood warnings go out tomorrow afternoon. Coverage should be pretty widespread especially south of the Pike.

    Thursday… such a tricky forecast, all dependent on frontal timing. I currently lean towards a fast enough frontal passage to get us off the hook for severe weather.

    Behind that… it gets downright chilly for this time of year, but only for a day. We get back to normal for the weekend. Sunday the nicer day.

  18. Thanks TK for your input on Thursday. When you mentioned a few semi historic outbreaks July 10, 1989 certainly comes to my mind.

    1. That is the analog I was thinking of most. But there are some differences between that event and how I think this one is going to play out.

      This one may be a smaller version of that because everything is displaced south and west in comparison. This could limit the severe weather threat to central and western CT back into NY State.

  20. Not great timing on server fix-up so I can’t update until a bit later. Probably a mini-update later this morning and a second edit this afternoon.
    Continue here for now…

  21. I know its way over done but looking at 6z NAM on Cod for interior parts of MA and CT I have never seen EHI and significant tornado values as high as I have seen with this run of the NAM. SPC has areas south of Boston in marginal risk tomorrow.

    1. Thank you. Just took a look at that. OFF the charts, especially for around these parts. If it makes you feel better, the current 12Z NAM has backed off considerably. Still parameters for perhaps some severe weather, but NOTHING
      like the 6Z run. We shall see as it gets closer.

  23. Flash flood watch in effect for southern areas ….

    Already showers popping and I can see the one just southwest of marshfield.

    Torrid out there, zero ventilation.

    1. Radar

      https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.3521739130434783&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=434.07407407407413&centery=325.1851851851852&transx=34.07407407407413&transy=85.18518518518522&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=24997856&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

      We shall see how the next few days pan out.

      I was downtown this morning and had to walk quite a way. Pretty sticky out there, but it wasn’t too bad (not for me anyway, as I can generally tolerate the heat and humidity)

  26. Radar getting pretty active. First batch of convection moving off shore South
    of Boston. More action to the West, moving Eastward.

  29. Lots going on out there. (Chance to observe as this is my drive the kids to and from camp week 🙂 )

    Just had another towering cumulus cloud/rain shower develop just to my south.

    There’s now some decent clearing to our west and …. there’s a gentle e-SE seabreeze out to about route 3, seemingly adding more low level moisture, and perhaps setting a convergence boundary a couple miles inland for these central mass storms to encounter later on.

  30. Any storms headed towards the city either turn right (or redevelop right) or just the opposite and go left MISSING the city. 😀 We’ll see if that pattern remains all
    afternoon.

    1. Look at these cells as the approach Eastern, MA. Storms to the left of us, storms to the right of us.

      https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.5630434782608695&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=439.96138996138995&centery=180.50193050193047&transx=39.961389961389955&transy=-59.498069498069526&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=24998025&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  32. 79 (dp 70) at the airport with SE sea breeze.

    This is just the type of sea breeze that could lead to more convection.
    85 at my house with similar dp.

    We shall see. Nothing but a very quick rain shower so far around noonish is all.

  33. Hearing thunder in Wilmington, with dark clouds to the southwest. Expect the cell to go south of here, Woburn should get hit. Radar looks very good to the west around Springfield and it’s only 2 PM!

    1. After the Springfield storms, there’s one cluster near Albany and a big batch of rain just west of those cells.

      1. Yes, but will that translate to anything here.
        Flash Flood watch means we’ll get NOTHING. 😀 😀 😀
        I joke of course. We shall see.

      2. CAPE, LI, and mid level lapse rates all look good in southern areas, but especially across southern and central CT. Could be some big storms in that area.

  34. Route 9 from Worcester to Boston is the suck zone for these storms. North of the zone they move NE, south of the zone they move SE

    1. That’s a nice reference from the movie twister, even if used inappropriately. 😀 😀 😀 And I AGREE. I just posted on this.

  35. The radar looks like something is just sweeping the convection (or steering it away)
    away from the Boston area. Is it hitting the sea breeze and is not happy (ie less instability) or is the sea breeze affecting where the convergence goes?

    Something ain’t right.

    1. It’s pretty weird, judging by the way the clouds on the cell north of Boston blew southeast, the winds are going NW-SE. Yet that rogue cell moves NE.

      1. It’s also the only cell that’s moving at a quickish pace. Everything else is taking its time strolling along.

    2. All those cells on the Mass Pike around Worcester seem to be headed towards the city. Might take them a while to get there though.

        1. Same thing happened with the warned cell right around Wrentham. It was moving west until it hit I-95 and just started settling southward

    1. It was most interesting. I noticed a possible Hail signature on that earlier.
      Does NOT look so impressive anymore, imho.

  37. Watching the radar is becoming quite comical. I mean really.

    I don’t think Boston sees a drop, at least not this afternoon, perhaps later.

    1. I am seriously hoping that TK or SDK can provide us with the reasons
      why convection has fallen flat on its face in the Rt corridor, Worcester to Boston?

  38. This is what I can tell you…

    Convection is behaving exactly as expected today. Popcorn, but some of it is concentrated loosely along a zone south of Boston where there is a boundary sitting there. This boundary was actually fairly well-forecast by most of the short range guidance. So the storms are where the air is rising, and they are not where the air is generally sinking. Normal local atmospheric behavior. Hard to forecast with precision so one must watch radar. These cells don’t have great venting, so they pop up, rain-out, and redevelop elsewhere.

    We’ll have to watch this main boundary and other outflow boundaries as the afternoon and evening go along and then eventually support should run out in most of the region and most activity should diminish early tonight. As I stated yesterday, there will be places that do not get a drop of rain today. This is the nature of convective activity.

    Updating the blog now…

    1. Thank you. Nicely stated and makes sense.

      Btw, Some convection just popped a bit South of my house in JP.
      My wife heard thunder. Something appears to be happening now.

  39. Wild here in Taunton right now.
    Continuous thunder with a storm just to our south in Dighton and a second storm right behind that one in Attleboro headed this way!

  43. That storm south of the city seems to be sitting and rocking and rolling and getting stronger

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.15482041587901701&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=348.2570207570209&centery=450.55250305250314&transx=-51.74297924297912&transy=210.55250305250314&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=24998166&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    2. It seems to have built back to the SW a bit to now cover a small portion of 128 as well. I keep expecting a flash flood warning to be issued on that cell.

  44. It’s gotten crazy down here in Lakeville. Wind is picking up, rain is pouring and there have been quite a few close lightning strikes. I think I’ll wait to walk the dog..

  46. Awful ride though eastern CT from Coventry to Jewett city where my son is supposed to be playing another baseball tournament game tonight. Torrential rain, flooded roads, hail, cloud to ground bolts, and downed branches on Rte 14 most of the way from willimantic to just north of here. Followed the storm the whole way and they appear to be training over the same area. Would not be surprised to see some flooding reports. Fortunately no hail damage to the car!

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